Irish Sports
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18 Aug 14
12:19
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Date Joined:
30 Nov 10
A major negative for Australia would be Joseph OBrien getting down to 8 .12,its admirable and understandable but it will leave him weak and unable to ride him out properly.
Any Australia backers should hold fire because he will drift.
Any Australia backers should hold fire because he will drift.
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Replies: 89
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In all honesty I can't see the lad making that kind of weight...
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unnecessary distractions like this must be infuriating for an outfit like Coolmore where the story becomes all about the boy
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I watched the OBriens at the last Curragh meeting paying special attention to John F Kennedy,I watched them with other horses and its a joy to see their attention to detail.
Ideally Magnier would like a high profile jockey with no weight problems but look what he has,he has a dedicated genius in Aiden,he also has four hands on workers who are in the stable night and day,they know each horse and give them special attention that is nearly unbuyable. Donnacha has yet to ride a winner but he has a lovely pair of hands and has the makings of a great jockey,accept he will have even more weight problems than Joseph. |
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Very short at 8/13,a line through Kingston Hill,Night of Thunder/Mukhadram wouldn't have me rushing for that,the trip will be more suitable for Australia than for Telescope i think but ought to suit Mukdadram who at 10 times the price of the fav has a better chance than that.
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Do you really think his BSP will be greater than 1.7 Wildmanfromborneo with the 8lb WFA he receives?
I would have thought the current price is enhanced because there is still a slight doubt about his participation and he will be 1/2 or shorter on Wednesday.I am not sure how critical the fasting will be on a horse who should have too much speed for these over 10 furlongs. It would be more pertinent on a grinder and he will more than likely be a pound or two over. |
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The WFA is standard and has applied for all the Benson and Hedges.
The British stewards are different and much tougher and might not allow overweight. I'm not so sure the ten furlongs will suit,I think he is a 12 furlong horse but they can't admit it. |
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I thought Willowing won as well.
The all in reference was a clue. |
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The horse is a certainty......a baboon could ride it.....
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A few negatives about Australia.
Aidan has already issued an excuse. Joseph trying to do 8-12 Never won over the trip. No course form. He is a 1m 4f horse. On a line through Kingston Hill it would appear Mukhadram has better form than Australia. A race to watch for me, good luck.  |
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Always thought he looked made for 10f and think he could easily be better over it that 12f
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What a load of bawlox.....somebody puts up 6 negatives for a horse and then says its a race to watch.....talk about sitting on a fence.....
Never won over the trip my hole......nearly won the guineas....how could the trip bother him.... How could he have course form if he never ran there before...... Who says he is a Im4f horse..... And its only a few people who could really think Mukhadram is better than Australia.... When the gobshee and dan are opposing.....then that's the signal for a max play..... |
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The Irish Champion Stakes looks an absolute knockover this year from the awful entry I saw, don't think they would bother running in this unless they were pretty sure they would win. not to get too cryptic but they've strongish links with Herbert and Stoute and having recently began watching 'The Wire', I've become aware of how one hand washes the other.
Telescope is a grand horse and should take a group 1 somewhere given ordinary luck, but I couldn't see him giving the weight to a horse like Australia. Interestingly or not actually, Herbert was saying that Moore said telescope 'didn't feel the same horse' in the King George as in the Hardwicke. I really wish they'd park that stuff, every time Highclere have a good horse beaten, there is some excuse, Telescope ran the race of his life as far as I could see. |
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Some departure from Paulie Wallnuts when he is not complaining about food or the state of the jacks he is always frequenting he is slating jockeys,now it doesn't seem to matter a baboon can ride it.
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A wide open racecourse like York.....a small field....a pacemaker in position.....a ton in hand.....what can go wrong Dan.....even a baboon could ride it......anyway O Brien is one of the better jockeys.....not world class but reasonably competent.....that should be more than sufficient.....hes also not in the AW brigade......hes not one of the many jockeys you'd hav to be worried about doing their best for you when you need them....
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That Dan seems to be a big difference in our respective make up's......it looks to me like you are a little less discerning than myself....you don't seem to worry who rides the horses you back.....you aint too bothered what you eat....or where ya Shiite....
Each to their won I suppose..... |
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If a jockey is so weakened by wasting plenty can go wrong.
Australia is an odds on shot in a Group 1 you don't want those type of negatives. |
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The horse is a certainty......a baboon could ride it.....Paulie the only race that the great Brigadier Gerard was beaten in was this one back in 1972 Paulie at odds of 1/3.and he was a better horse then Australia.
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The jockey is one of the first thing I factor into my betting,the other two activities I prefer to do at home.
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Frank60.....with respect....that has nothing to do with what we are talking about.....how in gods name can a race 40 years ago have anything to do with tomorrows race....
Dan.....that's an interesting perspective.....so if you are hungry you don't eat til ya get home and if ya need a Shiite ya hang on to it till you reach base.....that's interesting behaviour..... |
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I am not afflicted with your nervousness,am used to betting so those photo finishes don't bother me.
Also if you weren't constantly eating the nervousness wouldn't have as big a consequence. The history of a race is relevant. |
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Fair enough the form book can have another use but the Kingston Hill formline is valid to me as well as The Gotchee in saying would i back Australia at his price.
Mukhadram beat Kingston Hill by 4 and 1/2L over 1m 2f giving 11lb Austrailia beat Kingston hill by 1.75L Australia is getting 8lb tomorrow. How you view their respective superiority in them races is up to yourself,as the odds say probably will win,that would put me off backing it. |
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The race used to be a graveyard for favourites,Brigadier Gerard and Grundy two of the more famous but lately it hasn't been a three year olds race.
Sea The Stars and Giants Causeway the only ones of that age group winning since Benson and Hedges were stopped sponsoring. |
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mukhadram form is worthless....hes been beaten too many times to be any good.....you can use lengths and weights any way ye like.....all I know is Australia is a top group 1 horse and mukhadram is nowhere near that level.....Australia is 1/10 to finish in front of mukhadram.....
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Paulie i,d chance that lay at 1/10.
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I'm with Pa on the value argument, Also JOB won't make the weight, Whether the horse is good enough to beat it's elders will be known tomorrow but at odds on I'm against it.
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i SEE JOB will be flying back fron york to ride a few for his dad in Killarney, His sister Anna and brother Donnacha O'Brien have a couple of rides as well,,,Weldman says Donnacha he has a lovely pair of hands and off 10 he just might get off the mark.
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The substance of comparing form lines through one horse's performance over different trips always contains a subjective element even ignoring the other conditions.
However I don't think many would dispute that Kingston Hill is a far superior horse over 12 furlongs (evinced by his style of running and back over 12F tomorrow) and to make direct comparisons from the eclipse form to the Derby is extremely dubious. It is difficult to glean much form the comparison at all,one could justifiably suggest that Kingston hill is a 10 lb better horse over 12 furlongs. I find it difficult to believe that people think 10 Furlongs is a negative for Australia. |
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THE best horse Aidan O'Brien claims he has ever trained faces his sternest test as he lines up against a stellar field in the Juddmonte International at York on Wednesday.
By Derby-winning super sire Galileo, out of Oaks heroine and wondermare Ouija Board, Australia was bred to be the best and has not disappointed so far, finishing a close third in the 2,000 Guineas before routing his British and Irish Derby rivals. Yet in taking on his elders for the first time, over a distance shorter than he has been racing over and a trip already proven to be optimal for two of his Group 1-winning rivals, Australia has plenty of questions to answer, especially as his trainer has expressed concerns about his fitness following a short break. "He's a good bit heavier than he was for Epsom and the Curragh, and is really just ready to start back," O'Brien said on Tuesday. "We imagine he should come on a lot for the run, but he is in good form and all has gone well with him since he last ran. We've always thought that a mile and a quarter would suit him well." It will have to as it is certain to suit Mukhadram, winner of the Group 1 Coral-Eclipse over the same distance. Also in opposition is this year's French Derby winner The Grey Gatsby, so impressive over the course and distance when landing the Dante in May. Add to that Royal Ascot winner and King George runner-up Telescope and Australia faces three horses who have achieved more than the 19 he faced at Epsom and the Curragh. Wednesday's field is completed by Arod and Kingfisher. |
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Its hardly a stellar field....its a Group 2 in all but name.....if he isn't capable of disposing with this rubbish then hes no superstar.....that saying id say he will beaat this trash with a leg tied up....
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I would be pretty certain that Australia will be better over 10f. He looked set to win the Derby doing handstands at that trip, but ended up being more workmanlike than brilliant. Tomorrow we may see that brilliance. 4-6 looks perfectly fair, though I think the 2.5 on K Hill is a superior bet. I be shocked if he is beat.
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Kingman, Tagrooda and Sea the Moon are all brilliant 3 year olds, I am not sure Australia is in the same league. The Epsom Derby was no more than a G3 and the Irish version was little more than premier handicap/listed class race. Tomorrow's race is not much better and it is an ideal opportunity for Australia to add to his CV but I have my doubts.
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Kingman qualifies as brilliant...not sure the other two have achieved that accolade. Im a big fan of Taghrooda, but as yet she hasn't beaten a certified group one horse yet. Sea The Moon has to prove he wasn't grossly flattered by the result the last day. Agreed the Derbys were poor.
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Have tossed my hat into the ring and laid him , after reading AOB in todays r/post ..He says he feels Aussie will need the run and is heavier than when he won both derby's ..Now I realize this is a huge race in its own right , and maybe AOB has left a little to work on for the Arc , so with him appearing to need the run and with France very much in their sights on that basis I have laid him...
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Will be a case of seeing how he looks in the paddock. Shameful that punters aren't given weights of horses pre-race, yet people harp on about how much difference 1 lb makes on his back.
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oh, wrong sign in name! Was wondering why i could read Wonky's posts!
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Don't disagree in regards racing weights pre race.
No doubt you will also be watching will he have a dump and if so in what quantity. Total swerve by Mike and the badbook boys(1/2 as against a fairly gen 4/6) |
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Pa ...He'll be down with the shovel to weigh it no doubt... |
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 Could be an opening there somewhere alright as a kind of reporting course inspector. |