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keen leader
25 Apr 14 20:54
Joined:
Date Joined: 05 Feb 02
| Topic/replies: 634 | Blogger: keen leader's blog
it is nearly that time of year and the annual festival of handy money via punting is upon us.

I have a specific reason for posting early.

this years contest is one lacking stellar quality and the markets have been relatively mature for some time, excepting one critical point. a handful of acts have not been seen to perform their songs "live" in public and therefore represent the "dark horse" element.

All the songs begin their rehearsals in the coming week in Copenhagen and when the journalists and media see them rehearse the songs live, I expect an upheaval in the odds of certain songs...armed with some inside info about one such song, the time to get ahead of the market is this weekend.


I am not going to comment on the various runners or riders, I am merely going to steer you to profit.

My vehicle of major profit this year is Israel.

Semi Final 2, is a rather poor qualifier, Ireland also in this one. Israel features a female singer with the most powerful voice in the competition and it is a high octane, disco friendly number, ie, a modern song which scores highly with juries.

Israel does have a poor draw from stall 3 in this semi final, which may prevent it from winning or placing in the first 3 in this particular semi. However it is an absolute sure thing, ie, 1.01 to qualify for the final.

you can back it at 2/5 with Whills, 4/11 with bet365s in the market "to qualify for the final"...on betfair it is about 1.36....our friends at powers rate it 1/8 and they are well ahead of the rival firms...at 2/5 or 4/11....maximum bet...easiest 36-40% you will get on your money all year.

my information is that the singer is excellent live and will be real eye candy along with her female dancers....when the song qualifies for the final, the draw it gets will determine its prospects of winning the competition outright....if it draws the second half of the final(the draw is a random picking a number out of the hat job), then I think this song could come very close to winning outright, as a very high tempo number close to the end of the running order on final night, tend to score.

our friends at bylesports must have the office cat pricing this event because they are still offering 100/1 about Israel(at 1/5 4 places) on the outright winner market....I have managed to sneak a nice few quid on each way in snide doubles etc and I recommend an interest each way at those odds...after all you are getting 20/1 on the place element of the wager...whilst powers go just 50/1 on the win.....if this song makes the impact I expect in the semi final I think it will be less than 20/1 to win on final night.

top it all off with the 11/4(again bboyles) to finish in the top ten....if the song is in the second half of the final, its a 1/4 shot in my view for a top ten, about 6/4 if in the first half, so 11/4 remains a beautiful price.

in conclusion:

all in max Israel to qualify for the final at 4/11-2/5

a decent wedge on 11/4 top ten in final

a tidy bet at 100/1 each way on the outright.

...this could potentially be the crowning moment of the irish forum, even more enjoyable than the famous cork 10-20 episode.
Pause Switch to Standard View eurovision 2014....the bet...
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Report Ozymandius May 8, 2014 8:00 PM BST
Right.  Come on then.  Let's be having you Israel!

Shalom!
Report Ozymandius May 8, 2014 8:02 PM BST
Running Order:

Semi-Final 2

Malta

Israel

Norway

Georgia

Poland

Austria

Lithuania

Finland

Ireland

Belarus

F.Y.R. Macedonia

Switzerland

Greece

Slovenia

Romania
Report Ozymandius May 8, 2014 8:20 PM BST
she did alright I suppose....sort of a deep voiced Pink...lively enough....not sure i would call it modern, KL..more 80's to me..but what do I know?
Report Ozymandius May 8, 2014 8:37 PM BST
austria's bearded lady my highlight so far.
Report frankalsoran60 May 8, 2014 9:01 PM BST
agree 100% OZY, The 1.36 i took on isreal to quilify is safe ,also backed isreal 20/1e/w to win the 2nd simi/final , but the bearded lady was the best by far ,a great performence, i got 23/1 in running[to win the eurovision] .  im happy with that.
Report Ozymandius May 8, 2014 9:06 PM BST
Greece rocking the house..note to KL..this is a modern number!

I also like Finland, touch of the Killers about them.
Report frankalsoran60 May 8, 2014 9:11 PM BST
Hard to belive Arminia were less then evens to win 3weeks ago ,you can get 5.6 now.
Report Ozymandius May 8, 2014 9:15 PM BST
Decent quality semi.

Greece (by a country mile)
Austria
Finland
Romania

would be the 4 I take from that.

Fingers crossed for Israel.. after watching that bit nervous and happy I haven't backed them for anything other than to qualify tonight..not nailed on to qualify tonight imo.  In KL we trust!
Report Ozymandius May 8, 2014 9:22 PM BST
bit more confident after seeing the run through...you can rule a few out...Israel should make it.
Report kavvie May 8, 2014 9:24 PM BST
ireland was bad enuf i thought..be lucky to qualify
Report frankalsoran60 May 8, 2014 9:26 PM BST
Interesting to note K.L. also recommended backing ireland not to quilify at 5/2 with P.P, The bet was past history when i got to P.P, Barone were giving 11/5 the same bet, we will know in the next few mins if he was right.
Report Ozymandius May 8, 2014 9:29 PM BST
Ireland defo in danger.
Report Ozymandius May 8, 2014 9:30 PM BST
georgia and lithanuia defo goners for me..not sure after that, I like Belarus.
Report Ozymandius May 8, 2014 9:33 PM BST
15 observers lurking in the shadows..only the openly gay forumites brave enough to pass judgement Cool
Report Cupwinkcook May 8, 2014 9:38 PM BST
Was stung badly on Hungary last year do giving it a skip

Agree about Finland, a bit like Killers
Report frankalsoran60 May 8, 2014 9:38 PM BST
Grin
Report timberman May 8, 2014 9:53 PM BST
Delay in the results been announced??...we should be ok so....Israeli forces dealing with the nations who didn't vote for Israel!!
Report Ozymandius May 8, 2014 9:55 PM BST
georgia, lithanuia, slovenia, macedonia + 1 to go...maybe Ireland.
Report Ozymandius May 8, 2014 9:58 PM BST
concerning....
Report Ozymandius May 8, 2014 10:00 PM BST
Report Flemenstar May 8, 2014 10:00 PM BST
Says he knows how other countries view them politically and still advises the bet Crazy

you long mug
Report timberman May 8, 2014 10:01 PM BST
yea we deserve nothing else for backing Israel!!
Report frankalsoran60 May 8, 2014 10:01 PM BST
DOH.......TIME TO TURN OVER TO THE PLAYERS GOLF.
Report Ozymandius May 8, 2014 10:02 PM BST
fair enough result...good semi..they were borderline.....gutted.

First Ronnie o Sullivan and now this Cry
Report Ozymandius May 8, 2014 10:04 PM BST
there is some story about Israel withdrawing funding next yr and not taking part..don't know if that would have effected juries..don;t think so.

Just not a good enough song at end of day.
Report frankalsoran60 May 8, 2014 10:04 PM BST
TIME FOR THE AFTER TIMEERS TO HAVE THERE SAY.Grin
Report Pre-Fat-Low-Fat-Foods May 8, 2014 10:12 PM BST
keen leader     25 Apr 14 20:54 
...this could potentially be the crowning moment of the irish forum


Or maybe not...Laugh Admit it, you were completely guessing
Report Roger De Bris May 8, 2014 10:12 PM BST
politics and an early slot killed it. Still should have been in the 10.
Report richters May 8, 2014 10:13 PM BST
is this the end for the D`OZY fella,this sheep has went over its final cliff i believe........
Report frankalsoran60 May 8, 2014 10:15 PM BST
wELL SUMED UP ROGER
Report frankalsoran60 May 8, 2014 10:15 PM BST
wELL SUMED UP ROGER
Report kavvie May 8, 2014 10:15 PM BST
were all wrong from time to time prefat..he also  reccommended a tasty 5/2 bet also that won.. why are you not congratulating him on that?
Report Roger De Bris May 8, 2014 10:16 PM BST
This SF's Estonia.....but a much better song....
Report Ozymandius May 8, 2014 10:18 PM BST
It was a decent quality semi final for me.  I only made it borderline Top 10 having seen all the songs.  Should have made it ahead of Slovenia, I guess.

Not entirely sure that even with a better draw and a more vote friendly country that it def would have been Top 10.

Anyway, we pays our money and takes our chances.

Hard lines, KL.
Report kavvie May 8, 2014 10:19 PM BST
excuse my ignorance...theres  a semi final2 winner market on here.how is that determined?
Report Ozymandius May 8, 2014 10:20 PM BST
in previous years they released the full semi final results after the final...presumably the same this year.
Report roadrunner46 May 8, 2014 10:20 PM BST
im merely going to steer you to profitLaugh whats happened did all the muslims in europe get together and vote against ISRAELLaugh damn politics
Report kavvie May 8, 2014 10:25 PM BST
looks like it rr.plus they didnt help themselves by threatening to witdraw next year(before the vote)
Report BraveInca2006. May 8, 2014 10:32 PM BST
A re-mortgage job at 2-5. We have all been there but should know better by now. Not the Irish forums greatest moment so.

I note there was a free Irish advisory betting site that put up three successful qualifiers at odds against over the two nights and also advised a lay of Armenia at 1-1 some weeks ago.
Report The Gotchee May 8, 2014 10:33 PM BST
The real "eye candy" was the Polish performers. Not a note between them but just goes to show you the effect of a few bosomy close ups.Blush
Report richters May 8, 2014 10:33 PM BST
fear not lads only a few weeks to big bruvva,,,,.....i hear you giggle,yes,we not only have a eurovision expert but a big bruvva expert also but i fear he has hit the bottom off that cliff......
Report frankalsoran60 May 8, 2014 10:34 PM BST
ITS  worth a look at the market where Austria is concerned , it must be the biggest swing ever in the eurovision   5/1 now .as much as 250/1 for small money and plenty at 100/1, someone somewhere will be haveing a change of underware if it wins come saterday.Whoops
Report keen leader May 9, 2014 1:02 AM BST
Apologies.....disaster.....the ko of ireland cushioning the damage.....looking at the draw for the final...it had been presented to the netherlands on a plate.......I have punted them at 4/1 to turn it into a winning event...the
Report Roger De Bris May 9, 2014 1:15 AM BST
hope u didnt do too much...
Report kavvie May 9, 2014 9:13 AM BST
kl gambling isnt an exact science.the dislike of israel,the early appearance  and their negative carry on before the semi final were the big determining factors..
Report Ozymandius May 9, 2014 10:31 AM BST
Those factors did not help kavvie, but for me the biggest factor was that this was a well above average semi and the Russian entry was not all that.
Report kavvie May 9, 2014 10:42 AM BST
true id say oz..
Report thegalwayman May 9, 2014 10:59 AM BST
Unlucky KL.

The crowning moment of this forum was 'we dine on steak and wine' and it will never be surpassed.
Report frankalsoran60 May 9, 2014 11:17 AM BST
I THINK she of the black beard will win myself, i took 23/1 a min into her or he,s Flight of the Phoenix performence last night just over 5.2 now, it just shows how wrong we can be in dismissing a song when you first hear it , a lay is in order now but to be on the safe side i will put a saver on K.L.  netherlands which is 6.2.at the min.
Report newapproach May 9, 2014 1:23 PM BST
Netherlands only 5/1, my godSurprised

I'm not a big eurovision fan by any means but I heard their song on tuesday and really liked it. Took a bit of the 66/1 on offer with coral straight after, can't believe its so short now. Will have to lay off some of it now its got so short.

Any ideas why it has shortened up so much?
Report frankalsoran60 May 9, 2014 1:55 PM BST
There was 840/1 for 13euro at one point N.A. Have a look at the betfair market , Austria where a hugh price as well now 4/1 , as i said in a previous post sometimes we dont listen to a song more then once, Arminia on the other hand had punters looking for less then evens for Thousands a few weeks back, you can get 8.5 here now.Many punters would laugh at the idea of betting on the Eurovision but if you trust your judgement there can be money made backing and laying, on the other hand its not easy listening to some of the song over and over again.Grin
Report newapproach May 9, 2014 2:01 PM BST
Haven't heard the Austrian song but I hope it doesn't win no matter how good it is.

Stupid gimmick to have a woman with a beard, if she was that good a singer, she wouldn't need to do that.
Report frankalsoran60 May 9, 2014 2:47 PM BST
no gimmick n.a.   check it out on you tube
Report Ozymandius May 9, 2014 4:59 PM BST
of course it's a gimmick...but it also happens to be a decent song and performer....biggest impact on first time viewer as the beard lodges itself in the memory...not sure how it stands up to repeat viewing.
Report frankalsoran60 May 9, 2014 5:59 PM BST
fair point ozy
Report Pre-Fat-Low-Fat-Foods May 9, 2014 7:24 PM BST
Lot of mugs showing up with inflated prices now Laugh
Report frankalsoran60 May 9, 2014 10:37 PM BST
unning order: Songs that are performed early in the final are at a big disadvantage. It's now ten years since the winner came from the first half of the draw and the running position of the last nine winners, working back from 2013, speaks for itself: 18th, 17th, 19th, 22nd, 20th, 24th, 17th, 17th and 19th. The best positions of all are 17th-19th, responsible for six of the last nine winners.

Read more: http://www.theweek.co.uk/music/eurovision-song-contest/58462/intelligent-pun...
Report Roger De Bris May 10, 2014 12:59 AM BST
the Spain Train leaves tomorrow night. Be on it. Wink
Report Arklearkle May 10, 2014 10:01 AM BST
Our performances in the last number of years tell us all we need to know about RTE. Most of the people there have become so arrogant and important in their own minds that they are likely to disappear up their own arrises. Unfortunately the tax-payer continues to foot the bill. The licence fee should be withdrawn. That might wake them up.
Report paulie wallnuts May 10, 2014 2:22 PM BST
Anybody that is even caught watching this  Shiite should have their television impounded.....be fined 2 months wages.....and given 60 hours community service.....
Anyone betting on it.....well I cant even give a response to that......
Report Roger De Bris May 10, 2014 4:05 PM BST
at least you have your Thirsk & Warwick tonight paulie.....Blush
Report kavvie May 10, 2014 6:10 PM BST
paulie if i told u there was a certainty in a swimming/bandy/handball race tonight,and if i gave u sound reasons why it was a cert and that the price was wrong??would you back it?..i would...
Report paulie wallnuts May 10, 2014 8:54 PM BST
No disrespect kavvie......but no I wouldn't......the only bet id have in an obscure sport like the ones you mention......would be if the player I was backing was playing me......other than that I wouldn't be getting involved.....
Report roadrunner46 May 10, 2014 9:05 PM BST
best song so far swedenLove
Report frankalsoran60 May 10, 2014 9:46 PM BST
it wont be far away r.r ...austria for me
Report Ozymandius May 10, 2014 10:34 PM BST
best of luck, frank hope it comes in for you.

Netherlands, interesting and quality song but didn't look like a Eurovision winner to me.

Greece for me a bit overpriced at 80's..I guess they won't sway the jurors but will do well in tele vote imo
Report Ozymandius May 10, 2014 10:55 PM BST
C'mon Conchita!

Gonna be a tight one.
Report by purpose May 10, 2014 11:27 PM BST
Won by a length.
Report frankalsoran60 May 10, 2014 11:32 PM BST
T.Y, OZY.... NICE TO PIP K.L Grin      I BACKED THE BEARDED LADY AT 23/1 IN  RUNNING DURING HER SIMI/FINAL PERFORMENCE, I THOUGHT THE SONG STOOD OUT.
Report timberman May 10, 2014 11:33 PM BST
instead of regional voting bloc voting in Europe ....now we have mentally ill / gay voting bloc across Europe!!
Report timberman May 10, 2014 11:33 PM BST
instead of regional voting bloc voting in Europe ....now we have mentally ill / gay voting bloc across Europe!!
Report Roger De Bris May 10, 2014 11:40 PM BST
Spain Top 10 landed.Love
Report paulie wallnuts May 10, 2014 11:53 PM BST
This is the drowning moment of the irish forum.....not the crowning one.......anybody who bet on this rubbish needs medical assistance......
Report richters May 10, 2014 11:58 PM BST
correct and right paulie,we now have roger aftertiming a top 10bet......and again it looks like D`OZY has done its brains......pantomine season isnt for another few m onths......hope dj didnt go balls deep on this.......
Report keen leader May 11, 2014 12:12 AM BST
well done if you latched onto the freak show and gained a profit.

the voting is now becoming a pure joke.

a fact for you to digest. tonight in ireland, poland received over 40% of all irish televotes and won the irish telepoll by a landslide. however as the 5 irish jury members ranked the song, 26th of 26, ie last, the coupling of the jury and televote, meant poland got zip in ireland.
Report richters May 11, 2014 12:20 AM BST
hard luck with the netherlands kl,why would you advise a max bet in this charade if you think the voting is a pure joke....its not as if this is a new trend......
Report frankalsoran60 May 11, 2014 12:48 AM BST
The top  3 songs in the betting finished 1ST, 3RD AND 2ND THAT WOULD INDICATE THAT JUSTICE IN THE VOTEING SYSTEM WAS AS FAIR AS YOU COULD GET IT.  WELL DONE TO THE Georgios Samaras LOOK ALIKE ON HER VICTORY.Happy
Report Roger De Bris May 11, 2014 3:44 AM BST
richters     10 May 14 23:58 
correct and right paulie,we now have roger aftertiming a top 10bet


it's all on the Specials Forum (The Spain Train), as I said earlier on this thread as well, get on The Spain Train.WinkLaugh
Report paulie wallnuts May 11, 2014 9:13 AM BST
the voting is a joke richters.....more like the whole thing is a joke and has been for years.......it wasn't long ago we sent out a turkey ......and now the thick paddies are wondering why we dont get votes anymore.....
what the paddy should have done is tell them to stick their contest up their ring......not much point sending out dustin and then continuing as normal.....
paddy powers are still betting on it....5/6 yer choice ......is the thing that won it a woman with a beard.....or a man with a fanny......hard one to call.....
Report pa lapsy May 11, 2014 9:52 AM BST
Great to see the ould singing thing taking off for Kingrat.
Report dj876 May 11, 2014 1:48 PM BST

May 10, 2014 -- 5:58PM, richters wrote:


correct and right paulie,we now have roger aftertiming a top 10bet......and again it looks like D`OZY has done its brains......pantomine season isnt for another few m onths......hope dj didnt go balls deep on this.......


richters • May 11, 2014 1:15 PM BST
"dont usually bet on such d`ozy but haf to admit i had a sneaky 200 bet on eurotrash last nite...."

Agrees with Paulie that anyone betting on this needs medical assistance,slates Roger for aftertiming a tenner and now admits to having a deuce on the circus.

Report CheltenhamRoar May 11, 2014 2:10 PM BST
pailie you do have your way with words Laugh
Report richters May 11, 2014 2:20 PM BST
i knew you would be first to take the bait guess.....has d`ozy pmd you his preview of the up and coming big brother series?he has a 2/5 shot that he thinks should be 1/5,
Report Toto82 May 11, 2014 2:42 PM BST
Anyone see the resemblance between the winner and former BDO darts champ Andy Fordham after he lost a load of weight?
Report insideinfo May 11, 2014 5:22 PM BST
richters is the biggest mug on this thread.
Report hoggy3131 May 12, 2014 8:59 PM BST
Interesting Blog on Televote/Jury Vote Breakdowns. http://adriankavanagh.com/2014/05/11/which-countries-voted-for-ireland-at-eu...
Report Newmanix May 12, 2014 10:56 PM BST
Eurovision, the paralympics of music. Laugh
Report KIMBLE May 14, 2015 10:49 PM BST
any news on this year? Excited
Report frank60 May 14, 2015 11:19 PM BST
A few of us got stung when Isreal didn,t quilify for the final last year,[maybe Politics at the time],, Kimble all the songs can be seen on you tube,Sweden for me but you wont get rich at 2/1.
Report Ozymandius May 15, 2015 10:57 AM BST
We have new guru in residence, goes by the name, Roger de Bris.  Took KL to the cleaners in the Irish version.

He put up an excellent thread a while back, I took Sweden and Australia out of it, they have since both halved in price.

KL has dropped a few clangers in recent times, it would be interesting t see him and Roger go head to head again.
Report frank60 May 15, 2015 12:56 PM BST
Yes Ozy Roger is a good judge he also put Cyprus as a hugh outsider[510/1 at the time] down to 100/1 now, im not sure if we will hear from K.L., i hope im wrong .
Report p_r_e_m_i_e_r__f_a_n_t_a_s_y May 15, 2015 2:06 PM BST
Estonia Cool
Report neill d May 15, 2015 2:56 PM BST

May 15, 2015 -- 4:57AM, Ozymandius wrote:


We have new guru in residence, goes by the name, Roger de Bris.  Took KL to the cleaners in the Irish version.He put up an excellent thread a while back, I took Sweden and Australia out of it, they have since both halved in price.KL has dropped a few clangers in recent times, it would be interesting t see him and Roger go head to head again.


Ozy is the best antagonist since Ric Flair!

Report frank60 May 19, 2015 2:02 PM BST
Ozy i just looked at some of the top songs rehearsals for the Eurovision and the Irish betfair forum Representing Finland are up there in the betting,it looks like another blank for the irish song Molly Sterling,s Playing by numbers [600/1here], the best backed song in the last few days is Russia, ..maybe Roger De Bris will drop in to give his opinion as to how the rehearsals are going as stage Presentation is big thing on the night.
Report Ozymandius May 19, 2015 7:10 PM BST
I'm sure Roger will drop in, Frank.

We look to have missed the optimum lay off point on Australia.

Let's hope the Irish Forum House Band make the Final.

If My Irish Molly makes the Final, hopefully the MCs can inform Europe of the breaking news that our borders are now open to Quuuaaaars wanting to Marry.  Every fruit around Europe is glued to this and it could be a big vote winner.  Molly should probably dedicate the song to the newly won freedom for Quuaaaaars and ham it up with some Rainbow staging effects.
Report frank60 May 19, 2015 7:55 PM BST
Laugh
Report Ozymandius May 19, 2015 7:58 PM BST
A full on snog with Conchita Wurst to mark the occasion would bring the house down.
Report frank60 May 19, 2015 8:00 PM BST
There on RTE2 NOW ,A wonderful night of music awaits.Grin
Report Ozymandius May 19, 2015 8:05 PM BST
Yeee haaww...off and running.
Report Ozymandius May 19, 2015 8:07 PM BST
Can you find Rogers thread, Frank, and bump it?  I cant see it.  Thanks
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