Irish Sports
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it is nearly that time of year and the annual festival of handy money via punting is upon us.
I have a specific reason for posting early.
this years contest is one lacking stellar quality and the markets have been relatively mature for some time, excepting one critical point. a handful of acts have not been seen to perform their songs "live" in public and therefore represent the "dark horse" element.
All the songs begin their rehearsals in the coming week in Copenhagen and when the journalists and media see them rehearse the songs live, I expect an upheaval in the odds of certain songs...armed with some inside info about one such song, the time to get ahead of the market is this weekend.
I am not going to comment on the various runners or riders, I am merely going to steer you to profit.
My vehicle of major profit this year is Israel.
Semi Final 2, is a rather poor qualifier, Ireland also in this one. Israel features a female singer with the most powerful voice in the competition and it is a high octane, disco friendly number, ie, a modern song which scores highly with juries.
Israel does have a poor draw from stall 3 in this semi final, which may prevent it from winning or placing in the first 3 in this particular semi. However it is an absolute sure thing, ie, 1.01 to qualify for the final.
you can back it at 2/5 with Whills, 4/11 with bet365s in the market "to qualify for the final"...on betfair it is about 1.36....our friends at powers rate it 1/8 and they are well ahead of the rival firms...at 2/5 or 4/11....maximum bet...easiest 36-40% you will get on your money all year.
my information is that the singer is excellent live and will be real eye candy along with her female dancers....when the song qualifies for the final, the draw it gets will determine its prospects of winning the competition outright....if it draws the second half of the final(the draw is a random picking a number out of the hat job), then I think this song could come very close to winning outright, as a very high tempo number close to the end of the running order on final night, tend to score.
our friends at bylesports must have the office cat pricing this event because they are still offering 100/1 about Israel(at 1/5 4 places) on the outright winner market....I have managed to sneak a nice few quid on each way in snide doubles etc and I recommend an interest each way at those odds...after all you are getting 20/1 on the place element of the wager...whilst powers go just 50/1 on the win.....if this song makes the impact I expect in the semi final I think it will be less than 20/1 to win on final night.
top it all off with the 11/4(again bboyles) to finish in the top ten....if the song is in the second half of the final, its a 1/4 shot in my view for a top ten, about 6/4 if in the first half, so 11/4 remains a beautiful price.
in conclusion:
all in max Israel to qualify for the final at 4/11-2/5
a decent wedge on 11/4 top ten in final
a tidy bet at 100/1 each way on the outright.
...this could potentially be the crowning moment of the irish forum, even more enjoyable than the famous cork 10-20 episode.
I have a specific reason for posting early.
this years contest is one lacking stellar quality and the markets have been relatively mature for some time, excepting one critical point. a handful of acts have not been seen to perform their songs "live" in public and therefore represent the "dark horse" element.
All the songs begin their rehearsals in the coming week in Copenhagen and when the journalists and media see them rehearse the songs live, I expect an upheaval in the odds of certain songs...armed with some inside info about one such song, the time to get ahead of the market is this weekend.
I am not going to comment on the various runners or riders, I am merely going to steer you to profit.
My vehicle of major profit this year is Israel.
Semi Final 2, is a rather poor qualifier, Ireland also in this one. Israel features a female singer with the most powerful voice in the competition and it is a high octane, disco friendly number, ie, a modern song which scores highly with juries.
Israel does have a poor draw from stall 3 in this semi final, which may prevent it from winning or placing in the first 3 in this particular semi. However it is an absolute sure thing, ie, 1.01 to qualify for the final.
you can back it at 2/5 with Whills, 4/11 with bet365s in the market "to qualify for the final"...on betfair it is about 1.36....our friends at powers rate it 1/8 and they are well ahead of the rival firms...at 2/5 or 4/11....maximum bet...easiest 36-40% you will get on your money all year.
my information is that the singer is excellent live and will be real eye candy along with her female dancers....when the song qualifies for the final, the draw it gets will determine its prospects of winning the competition outright....if it draws the second half of the final(the draw is a random picking a number out of the hat job), then I think this song could come very close to winning outright, as a very high tempo number close to the end of the running order on final night, tend to score.
our friends at bylesports must have the office cat pricing this event because they are still offering 100/1 about Israel(at 1/5 4 places) on the outright winner market....I have managed to sneak a nice few quid on each way in snide doubles etc and I recommend an interest each way at those odds...after all you are getting 20/1 on the place element of the wager...whilst powers go just 50/1 on the win.....if this song makes the impact I expect in the semi final I think it will be less than 20/1 to win on final night.
top it all off with the 11/4(again bboyles) to finish in the top ten....if the song is in the second half of the final, its a 1/4 shot in my view for a top ten, about 6/4 if in the first half, so 11/4 remains a beautiful price.
in conclusion:
all in max Israel to qualify for the final at 4/11-2/5
a decent wedge on 11/4 top ten in final
a tidy bet at 100/1 each way on the outright.
...this could potentially be the crowning moment of the irish forum, even more enjoyable than the famous cork 10-20 episode.
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Replies: 133
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I'm on. Thank you.
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Tremendous stuff.
Thank you, Maestro. |
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Anything tickle your fancy next week at punchestown KL?
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great post kl as usual.the only problem i would see is that israel is a very unpopular country?..im sure the singer will be fab looking and a great singer etc but theres people/countrys who just wont vote for israel no matter what..having said all that i played all the bets..btw they are 1/2 with bwin to qualify for final!!
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i ain't trying to be rude kavvie (and it's none of my business what you do with your money) but if you don't fancy Israel (as your posy would suggest) what on earth are you doing backing them?
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premier if you read it again i never said i didnt fancy them.i just said with political views and the perception of israel in other countrys that it might be harder to actually win it.im in big at 1/2 and 11/4..smaller on the outright...
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israel is a very unpopular country
 ..it is true though. |
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whats ur point ozy?did i state something wrong??
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You must be one of a very select few kavvie if you can back something in a novelty market like that with bwin to "win big" as you say
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agree snap..got v little on with said firm!!
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So, there is 1/2 available with other firms other than bwin???
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THANKS TO KEEN LEADER for posting HIS THOUGHTS on Eurovision yet again !!!
Be grateful children ffs |
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yes i have a bookie who will give me a decent bet if its available with any oddschecker firm..
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Oh...
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ok,i am in.
btw,isreal have won this before,haven't they? |
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Dana International won it for them,I should know.
The point Kavvie made is valid,the huge Muslim population in Europe have a visceral hatred of Israel also some of these old Soviet Union members now independent are predominantly Muslim. |
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Yes, but to counteract that you have the likes of Ari Gold in Golder's Green and similar eclaves across Europe, repeat voting for the Mother Ship, having secured an excellent deal with their telephone provider.
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Israel now cut to 40/1 outright with Boyles 4 places ew.
Still for the semi final they are 20/1 3 places ew. Comparing the outright vs the semi final prices it looks like a bit of a rick or maybe their poor draw in the semi explains their 20/1. |
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T.Y. K.L. EXCELLENT AS EVER..n) מִצְטַייֵן, מְצוּיָּן
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Excellent שוב תודה
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i did,nt know you spoke modern hebrew catch.n1
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Multi-talented the girlfriend says !
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betfred now 1/2 Israel to qualify
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IsRAEL are a sporting bet at 20/1 e/w 1/4 the odds for the 1st 3 in Laddies for the 2nd simi/final, as K.L states Semi Final 2, is a rather poor qualifier, Ireland also in this one. Israel features a female singer with the most powerful voice in the competition and it is a high octane, disco friendly number, ie, a modern song which scores highly with juries. also laddies are the only bookie to give 1/4 the odds for this simi/final,..the best i could get for Irael to quilify for the final was 1.36 . p.s. she has a nice pair of pins to.
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1/2 to qualify with Betfred
Interestingly they are only betting on Ireland & Israel NOT to qualify |
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i dont have an a/c with betfred C.S. i wonder how much they will allow you to put on if you did, p.s i see laddies price for my bet for Israel to be in the first 3 in the 2nd simi/fiinal have been taken down, ..jesus laddies i only had e25 e/way.
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A lot of blue on various markets today
I tried get 25s Semi Final Two with Skybet, only wanted a score each way. Was offered €2.43 Forgot to back it with Ladbrokes at 20/1  |
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cheers to keen leader. One of the top guys on here. Looks a nice pick there for everyone.
I added my preview on the Specials Forum, Eurovision thread. Always hard to know what way the votes will go, not always the most talented get what they deserve. Still some value can be found with so many competitors in the contest. GL |
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tx for that ROGER, Will had a look during Punchestown races.
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one more addition to the original.
the irish song was always a poor effort and my contacts tell me it is very dull and boring live, the nasal female singer is having a nightmare in rehearsals, she is as stiff as a poker as she cannot dance. at best the irish song is 50-50 to qualify....if it does qualify for the final it will finish in the bottom ten in the final, a million to finish in the top ten. you can back the irish song will PPower Not To Qualify at 5/2....those odds are massive....about a borderline case....I think it will not qualify as I fail to see the song getting any televotes. Israel...meanwhile coming along steadily on the rail.... |
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info noted k.l. ty
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Mei Finegold - Same Heart (Israel) Impression of second rehearsal can be seen on you tube along with the irish songs 2nd rehearsal and others. your contacts are not a millon miles away K.L. IRISH SONG VERY POOR
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worryingly pp took what i requested on line..tried a ton today on a horse at 4/1 was offered 12.56!!
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Right. Come on then. Let's be having you Israel!
Shalom! |
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Running Order:
Semi-Final 2 Malta Israel Norway Georgia Poland Austria Lithuania Finland Ireland Belarus F.Y.R. Macedonia Switzerland Greece Slovenia Romania |
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she did alright I suppose....sort of a deep voiced Pink...lively enough....not sure i would call it modern, KL..more 80's to me..but what do I know?
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austria's bearded lady my highlight so far.
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agree 100% OZY, The 1.36 i took on isreal to quilify is safe ,also backed isreal 20/1e/w to win the 2nd simi/final , but the bearded lady was the best by far ,a great performence, i got 23/1 in running[to win the eurovision] . im happy with that.
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Greece rocking the house..note to KL..this is a modern number!
I also like Finland, touch of the Killers about them. |