Two decent events to look forward to this week, with the 3 best players in the world at the moment appearing in the desert, and the raucous nature of the Phoenix Open ensuring good entertainment.
In Dubai, I was all set to pull the trigger on Rory this week, assuming he would be about 6-1 joint fav with Tiger. Not so. The 7-2 is a bit of a joke on a player who wins less frequently than one of his talents should, and certainly less than Tiger. So at the prices he is left alone.
Tiger has a terrible performance from last week to overcome, but this is what he achieved last year, when in reverse he was terrible in Dubai, only to triumph a week later in Torrey Pines. I don't think he was as bad last week as some make out. He was on the verge of getting right back into it halfway through his third round, only to find water, instead of having a potential eagle putt. He seemed to give up the chase a little bit thereafter. I would have preferred him to show a bit more consistency in the Champions Challenge today though, to warrant a bet.
One player who doesn't need to improve on current form to take a hand in the finish is Rafa Cabrera Bello. He really should be going for a hat trick in the desert, but his putting has let him down badly the last two weekends, when in command. He is shying away from the winning line at the moment, and for that reason I backed him e,w at 14s w/o Rory, Tiger and Stenson, rather than 25s outright. Rory is the most likely winner, and for the purpose of this bet, I would probably benefit from one of the big 3 winning. Bello has no problems finishing 2nd!!
I also backed Ross Fisher in this market at 40-1. The 40s here looks a better bet than the 66s outright. He too can shy from a winners cheque. But what he does have is excellent course form, and a game that has been looking like it is nearly back to the level of his near major misses a few years ago. He can devour the par 5s here, a couple of eagles will be no surprise, and he should go close.
Stephen Gallagher is defending champion, and having been 2nd the year previous, and 10th in 2011, he really does look overpriced at 50-1, even accounting for the cream at the head of the market. Gallagher has performed well since the turn of the year, and will face into this week with plenty of confidence.
Last in is another former winner, Miguel Angel Jimenez. He knows his way around here better than most, and seems to have had his price inflated on the back of a missed cut last week. But that was a track he has no great affinity for, and he cant be accused of not being in form. His previous 5 outings resulted in a win and 4 other top 20s. There is plenty of life in the old dog yet!!
1.6pts e.w Cabrera Bello 14-1(w/o Big 3) .6pt e.w Ross Fisher 40-1(w/o big 3) .5pt e.w Stephen Gallagher 50-1 .3pt e.w Mig Angel Jimenez 80-1
In the Phoenix Open, Big Phil would be the most likely winner, but he has to prove he is fully fit after last weeks back troubles, so is easy to pass over.
First port of call was Ryan Palmer. He is in superb form, and though struggling to get over the line, he resembles Jimmy Walker in that if he keeps putting himself in position on Sunday, its going to happen soon. This may be the week, at a track where he has plenty of previous, finishing off with a 62 to claim 5th last year. He can reel off birdies for fun, and that is what will be needed around here. Anything under 20 under probably wont get it done.
Im in danger of following Billy Horschel over a cliff, but he still looks one to follow for the foreseeable future. In my book he played terrible last week, yet finished 22nd. He has been making a few silly errors each round, but he is too good to not cut these out soon. He was 11th here on debut last year, and is the type to revel in the carnival atmosphere of the 16th.
I am staying away from the market principles, so am adding 4 others to the team sheet. All have excellent course and or current form. Ben Crane at 100-1 would be the pick of them in my book. 4 top 20s here in his last 6 appearances, he has an obvious affinity for the place. A poor showing last week seems to have seen him ignored by the market, but this is certainly more his type of event.
Kevin Na, Matt Every and JB Holmes complete the team. Na is a bit of a pr*ck ijn my book, but has shown he can win, and could easily pop up again here. Every is improving all the time, and his turn should be near too. He pulled out last week, so assuming all is well, could benefit from that this week. Holmes is twice a winner here, and has been playing well enough on tracks he has little form on, to suggest he can get involved again on his favourite track.
.75pt e.w Ryan Palmer 35-1 .75pt e.w Billy Horschel 33-1 .5pt e.w Matt Every 50-1 .3pt e.w Kevin Na 90-1 .25pt e.w Ben Crane 100-1 .3pt e.w JB Holmes 90-1
I don't want to back Tiger, because think he should be a point or so bigger, plus the original hope was to be on Mcilroy at a similar price, but that may change!! As Huddys says, I be disgusted if he won , and I not on!!
We will find out whose the jinx. I am now misere ouverte.
Tobywong and DJ 876 will be waiting in the wings,the former to gloat the latter to give us some long winded verbiage about bank control and bank protection.
We will find out whose the jinx. I am now misere ouverte.Tobywong and DJ 876 will be waiting in the wings,the former to gloat the latter to give us some long winded verbiage about bank control and bank protection.
Not necessarily a bad idea in regards bank protection rather than going all in, maybe an open mind in regards a drift on Rory and buy him back at higher if events allow may be the way to go? Damned if you say what you think regarding someone elses bet and you are wrong,but the question always in whatever way it unfolds is whether you yourself think he is over the odds for a back or lay.
Not necessarily a bad idea in regards bank protection rather than going all in, maybe an open mind in regards a drift on Rory and buy him back at higher if events allow may be the way to go? Damned if you say what you think regarding someone elses be
Pa Lapsy you gave me great advice before so always delighted to hear it.
Every cripple has his own way of walking,if McIlroy drifts it will be because he comes back to the field that would make him a bigger lay for me as his suspect putting and temperament will kick in so I would prefer to harden my bet.
Pa Lapsy you gave me great advice before so always delighted to hear it.Every cripple has his own way of walking,if McIlroy drifts it will be because he comes back to the field that would make him a bigger lay for me as his suspect putting and temper
Ozymandius when I run dry I don't post so you will know when I top up.
I am giving you a win win situation,McIlroy loses you collect but if he wins I am gone for awhile.
Ozymandius when I run dry I don't post so you will know when I top up.I am giving you a win win situation,McIlroy loses you collect but if he wins I am gone for awhile.
Its a fair sized bet Wildman,if events allowed you to shall we say get out with your tank intact and still winning a good percentage, no harm,its patience and something you could consider a good bet might come along shortly after with your tank gone tis no use,personally i,d be now fighting for the tank but as said damned if Rory beaten,GL anyway and hope it goes with you.
Its a fair sized bet Wildman,if events allowed you to shall we say get out with your tank intact and still winning a good percentage, no harm,its patience and something you could consider a good bet might come along shortly after with your tank gone
I would also be a layer of Rory tomorrow,hes starting out on the front nine aswell,which is much harder than the back 9,a bad start and the wheels might come of,best of luck Wildman with your lay,im going to wait and see how my player are after tomorrow to see will I have to throw are a few more arrows,
I would also be a layer of Rory tomorrow,hes starting out on the front nine aswell,which is much harder than the back 9,a bad start and the wheels might come of,best of luck Wildman with your lay,im going to wait and see how my player are after tomor
I will know my fate soon enough,if someone catches or joins McIlroy he will fold so I won't attempt to get out of it.
Today I was discussing Stnchronicity in Thurles,I stated I would back him at 2/1 but lay him if he was 3/1 this brought some quizzical looks,as it happened I did neither.
Fair advice.I will know my fate soon enough,if someone catches or joins McIlroy he will fold so I won't attempt to get out of it.Today I was discussing Stnchronicity in Thurles,I stated I would back him at 2/1 but lay him if he was 3/1 this brought s
Backed Blazing Sonnet and Don Poli so finished in front.
I didnt know whether Synchronicity was fancied or not so left the race alone,there seemed little money for it in the ring and Charles wasn't there.
Backed Blazing Sonnet and Don Poli so finished in front.I didnt know whether Synchronicity was fancied or not so left the race alone,there seemed little money for it in the ring and Charles wasn't there.
Unusually high quota of posts for the golf thread!!
Rory does look a shade short at the moment, with plenty of golf to be played, but to be having such a big lay of him Wildman, you must think he more a 7-4/2-1 shot? I would find it very hard to have him that big. Agreed, he doesn't win as often as his talent deserves, and doesn't convert enough gilt edged opportunities. I have just backed Tiger at 8-1, as already on Gallagher, and they would look the most likely to benefit if he does mess up.
Boyles had chalked Tiger up at 4s w/o Rory. It appeared big. If Rory wasn't in the tournament(which he isn't for the purpose of this bet), Tiger would be more like a 5-2 shot. So to be 4-1, definitely seemed generous. But when taking into account the fact Rory could dot up, and the guy chasing second place would not be under as much pressure as if he was going for the win, and also that it would be dead heat rule for second rather than a playoff(which Tiger would obviously be odds on for), the value eeked out of the bet a little bit.
And by the time I decided not to do it, he was cut to 7-2 anyway!!
GL with your lay WM, I hope he does indeed falter tomorrow, and let the others back into it.
Unusually high quota of posts for the golf thread!!Rory does look a shade short at the moment, with plenty of golf to be played, but to be having such a big lay of him Wildman, you must think he more a 7-4/2-1 shot? I would find it very hard to have
Jiminez looks a good bet in 3 ball tomorrow, 11-4 far underestimating his chances against Luiten and Fran Mol.
Stuck a few quid on Matsuyama at 33s Stateside.
Jiminez looks a good bet in 3 ball tomorrow, 11-4 far underestimating his chances against Luiten and Fran Mol. Stuck a few quid on Matsuyama at 33s Stateside.
I presumed you were boozed up last night and were not being serious.You couldn't be that naive to be going all in after 50 years of punting??. Betfair is wasted on you,if you knew what you were doing you could create as profitable a scenario without the risk exposure.With this strategy the result of the bet is irrelevant in the long term.
I presumed you were boozed up last night and were not being serious.You couldn't be that naive to be going all in after 50 years of punting??. Betfair is wasted on you,if you knew what you were doing you could create as profitable a scenario without
Wind to get up for the weekend is a plus, Mc Ilroy was lucky on both 2nd and 3rd hole, ball twice got a fortunate bounce out when looking as if it in one hole anyway was going into fierce trouble,all in all he is playing well enough at the moment.
Wind to get up for the weekend is a plus, Mc Ilroy was lucky on both 2nd and 3rd hole, ball twice got a fortunate bounce out when looking as if it in one hole anyway was going into fierce trouble,all in all he is playing well enough at the moment.
If Dj876 was a golfer he would have the yips If DJ876 was a darts player he would have dartitis. If DJ876 was a snooker player he would have Patsy Fagans affliction.
His mind is so stuffed with rules he is stunted,has no feel for gambling and is still losing.
If Dj876 was a golfer he would have the yipsIf DJ876 was a darts player he would have dartitis.If DJ876 was a snooker player he would have Patsy Fagans affliction.His mind is so stuffed with rules he is stunted,has no feel for gambling and is still l
"Without the risk exposure" implying a risk exposure equivalent to 100% of your bank.
Anyway it is't any of my business what you do (though I always lose respect for posters who mention the amount they have placed on a bet on here) and at least if you lose,you have the consolation of losing with nobility.
"Without the risk exposure" implying a risk exposure equivalent to 100% of your bank.Anyway it is't any of my business what you do (though I always lose respect for posters who mention the amount they have placed on a bet on here) and at least if you
I remember the last time I went 'all in'. King George day, the day before I set of on the annual trip to Ballybrit. Think it was 2001, so I 22. Had the funds set aside for Galway, but I was itching to have the lot on Galileo. The itch proved to hard to resist, had the lump on at 4-6. A furlong down, my stomach turned inside out.....Galway seemed a long way away!! It ended well, but it could have turned sour. I had a great week in Ballybrit that week, making plenty, but may have had no fund to back the beasts.
What dj is saying Wildman, is how can you be so dogmatic about one bet, as to forfeit the chance to back quite a number of others in the coming week, that you would probably fancy nearly as much?
Consistent all ins, will end with one result,....all out.
I don't lack balls, and hope I never will, but there has to be an element of common sense applied. Though I do hope you collect
I remember the last time I went 'all in'. King George day, the day before I set of on the annual trip to Ballybrit. Think it was 2001, so I 22. Had the funds set aside for Galway, but I was itching to have the lot on Galileo. The itch proved to hard
Does no one on here lose,does no one have to lodge money.
When your money is dwindling at some stage you have to go all in.
Your betting has to be influenced by what you are carrying,Dj876 thinks going all in is having a score on a horse if that's whats in your pocket,he would have fifty pence on it to preserve his staking plan.
Finally if you get a bet so wrong then you deserve your exile,deserve missing other betting opportunities. What I do in these situations is work every hour I can to get both the money back and remind me of my stupid selection.
Does no one on here lose,does no one have to lodge money.When your money is dwindling at some stage you have to go all in.Your betting has to be influenced by what you are carrying,Dj876 thinks going all in is having a score on a horse if that's what
I don't know your normal stake Wildman, so maybe 3k is not an excessively out of proportion bet. I just hope Rory doesn't win, and a couple that you really fancy go in over the weekend, without your hard earned on them.
GL.
I don't know your normal stake Wildman, so maybe 3k is not an excessively out of proportion bet. I just hope Rory doesn't win, and a couple that you really fancy go in over the weekend, without your hard earned on them.GL.
There is an element of Monopoly money about it,with Betfair its just a figure on the right hand side of your screen and when you go on the inevitable losing run it just seems doomed.
Its like credit betting,a great facility but a dangerous one,,my preferred form of betting has always been cash,handing over real notes tends to concentrate the mind.
I am still confident McIlroy won't win,even think there is a chance he won't finish in the top five and would love to invest again.
There is an element of Monopoly money about it,with Betfair its just a figure on the right hand side of your screen and when you go on the inevitable losing run it just seems doomed.Its like credit betting,a great facility but a dangerous one,,my pre
If Rory is -14 going into Sunday you would take it.
Not ideal that Gallacher will be playing with him but he is well capable of matching Rory off the tee so there is every reason to believe he can hold him off and an early birdie or two would put Rory under a lot of pressure.
If Rory is -14 going into Sunday you would take it.Not ideal that Gallacher will be playing with him but he is well capable of matching Rory off the tee so there is every reason to believe he can hold him off and an early birdie or two would put Rory
Kopeka struggling though so it is hard to see Gallacher playing with anyone other than Rory, but you never know.
Both in trouble at 16 here, so he will certainly have a lead going into Sunday.
Kopeka struggling though so it is hard to see Gallacher playing with anyone other than Rory, but you never know.Both in trouble at 16 here, so he will certainly have a lead going into Sunday.
To be honest, I thought Rory be very hard to beat last night, and as my outright bet on Gallagher was not in the without market I was not looking great. So stuck few quid e.w on him at 14s without Rory. So though I would like Rory to f*ck off too, I quite happy its Koepka that has hit the skids.
To be honest, I thought Rory be very hard to beat last night, and as my outright bet on Gallagher was not in the without market I was not looking great. So stuck few quid e.w on him at 14s without Rory. So though I would like Rory to f*ck off too, I
Don't want to put the mockers on you Callitasucit but I will be amazed if its not another 50/1 winner for the golf experts.
How is Gallagher not favourite ?Don't want to put the mockers on you Callitasucit but I will be amazed if its not another 50/1 winner for the golf experts.
Hopefully Wildman, good start is vital. Obvious thing to say, a good start is always better than a bad one....but it will help him believe he can pick up where he left off today. All them putts wont drop tomorrow, patience will be key. Rory will not be easy to beat. Its hard to see anyone else winning.
Hopefully Wildman, good start is vital. Obvious thing to say, a good start is always better than a bad one....but it will help him believe he can pick up where he left off today. All them putts wont drop tomorrow, patience will be key. Rory will not
Old big tits Monty looks a great bet at 13-8 to oust Anthony Wall in their 2 ball in the morning. Personally i would have the betting the other way around. Wall has never been better than useless on Sundays. Monty knows this place like the back of his hand. Indeed, only very poor putting, and a bit of bad luck on Friday stopped him him from being in the thick of the action. He will plod (or pound) around tomorrow in 2 or 3 under, and i would be surprise if that isnt good enough.
Old big tits Monty looks a great bet at 13-8 to oust Anthony Wall in their 2 ball in the morning. Personally i would have the betting the other way around. Wall has never been better than useless on Sundays. Monty knows this place like the back of hi
Think the final round may be the equivalent of match play , could be very interesting . Hard to believe Gallacher was 100 10 holes ago , but dont think he can putt like that back to back rounds . Reckon odds are about right on here .
Think the final round may be the equivalent of match play , could be very interesting . Hard to believe Gallacher was 100 10 holes ago , but dont think he can putt like that back to back rounds . Reckon odds are about right on here .
The best golfer I ever saw from tee to the green was Christy OConnor,the second best was Peter Alliss,neither men could putt.
These two weren't just bad putters they were shocking,Alliss had the yips but OConnor just had a poor putting stroke. He played most of his career on slow greens but if he ever got to The Masters he wouldn't have broken 80.
For OConnor to have won what he won is testament to his magnificent ball striking,he frequently used driver off the fairway when a driver was a wooden club.
McIlroy is not in their league in putting but for a young fella he is shocking nervous looking.
The best golfer I ever saw from tee to the green was Christy OConnor,the second best was Peter Alliss,neither men could putt.These two weren't just bad putters they were shocking,Alliss had the yips but OConnor just had a poor putting stroke.He playe
Huddys , I laid bubba @ 4 on here last night , how he is still ahead is simply amazing , all over the place , yet got good lie after good lie , he even got a drop from under a bush ffs....
Huddys , I laid bubba @ 4 on here last night , how he is still ahead is simply amazing , all over the place , yet got good lie after good lie , he even got a drop from under a bush ffs....
Unbelieveable with Grillo,so wide on the last he hit the hospitality stand and bounces out,sunk 50ft eagle. Nice bird there for Celtic man Gallagher and his to lose now.
Unbelieveable with Grillo,so wide on the last he hit the hospitality stand and bounces out,sunk 50ft eagle.Nice bird there for Celtic man Gallagher and his to lose now.
Top bombing again Callit with Gallagher and a chance to double up in the states as well with Matsuyama, see New approach has Bubba there as well. Plucky bet Wildman and fair play for sticking with your convictions. Not sure what is wrong with Mcilroy as said above never looked really happy and his interview on friday was very negative,don,t think its any help having his ould doll traipsing after him and possible she is a distraction.
Top bombing again Callit with Gallagher and a chance to double up in the states as well with Matsuyama, see New approach has Bubba there as well.Plucky bet Wildman and fair play for sticking with your convictions.Not sure what is wrong with Mcilroy a
Poor golf from the leaders , including the winner . Rory was dire , but he was still a short price half way through the round where Gallacher was about 10/1 .
Do think Rory might concentrate better if the fiancee was not so prominent . Or maybe he just needs to keep the ball in play more consistently , and not have to lead the driving yardage stats . Long off the tee cuts no ice if your second is unplayable .
Poor golf from the leaders , including the winner . Rory was dire , but he was still a short price half way through the round where Gallacher was about 10/1 . Do think Rory might concentrate better if the fiancee was not so prominent . Or maybe he j
Well done Callit and Wildman (Go easy now,no more all ins until Cheltenham ).
Lock up your daughters in Tipp tonight,the Jagerbomb Kid will be on the prowl!
Well done Callit and Wildman (Go easy now,no more all ins until Cheltenham ).Lock up your daughters in Tipp tonight,the Jagerbomb Kid will be on the prowl!
What's ye're opinion on Bubba lads? I think he'll go on and win it although no value in the price. He played poorly for a lot of yesterday yet still ended the day 2 ahead. Co leader at the moment if he can finish on about -20, it should be enough to win it imo.
What's ye're opinion on Bubba lads? I think he'll go on and win it although no value in the price.He played poorly for a lot of yesterday yet still ended the day 2 ahead.Co leader at the moment if he can finish on about -20, it should be enough to wi
If Bubba keeps the head NA, its very hard to see him beaten. I hoped Matsuyama might get off to a fast start, but there is a bit of separation now, and those closest to Bubba, Perez and Stadler, wouldn't finish there dinner. (Though in hindsight, that is a rather stupid thing to say, as Stadler has clearly finished all his dinners and plenty of others too)
Cheers, builds the pot ahead of Chelt!!If Bubba keeps the head NA, its very hard to see him beaten. I hoped Matsuyama might get off to a fast start, but there is a bit of separation now, and those closest to Bubba, Perez and Stadler, wouldn't finish
big change at the top, looks a duel between bubba and stadler now. Still fancy bubba down the stretch, just needs a few putts to drop. Fantastic golf by stadler today on the front nine, very interesting to see whether he can keep it up for another 9 holes.
big change at the top, looks a duel between bubba and stadler now.Still fancy bubba down the stretch, just needs a few putts to drop.Fantastic golf by stadler today on the front nine, very interesting to see whether he can keep it up for another 9 ho
I got 13/8 ......Poor ride from patrick imo , this fellow needs to make it , he had him to far back off a slow pace , they went faster in the 3 miler...
I got 13/8 ......Poor ride from patrick imo , this fellow needs to make it , he had him to far back off a slow pace , they went faster in the 3 miler...