Dubai Classic/Phoenix Open Golf

Two decent events to look forward to this week, with the 3 best players in the world at the moment appearing in the desert, and the raucous nature of the Phoenix Open ensuring good entertainment.

In Dubai, I was all set to pull the trigger on Rory this week, assuming he would be about 6-1 joint fav with Tiger. Not so. The 7-2 is a bit of a joke on a player who wins less frequently than one of his talents should, and certainly less than Tiger. So at the prices he is left alone.

Tiger has a terrible performance from last week to overcome, but this is what he achieved last year, when in reverse he was terrible in Dubai, only to triumph a week later in Torrey Pines. I don't think he was as bad last week as some make out. He was on the verge of getting right back into it halfway through his third round, only to find water, instead of having a potential eagle putt. He seemed to give up the chase a little bit thereafter. I would have preferred him to show a bit more consistency in the Champions Challenge today though, to warrant a bet.

One player who doesn't need to improve on current form to take a hand in the finish is Rafa Cabrera Bello. He really should be going for a hat trick in the desert, but his putting has let him down badly the last two weekends, when in command. He is shying away from the winning line at the moment, and for that reason I backed him e,w at 14s w/o Rory, Tiger and Stenson, rather than 25s outright. Rory is the most likely winner, and for the purpose of this bet, I would probably benefit from one of the big 3 winning. Bello has no problems finishing 2nd!!

I also backed Ross Fisher in this market at 40-1. The 40s here looks a better bet than the 66s outright. He too can shy from a winners cheque. But what he does have is excellent course form, and a game that has been looking like it is nearly back to the level of his  near major misses a few years ago. He can devour the par 5s here, a couple of eagles will be no surprise, and he should go close.

Stephen Gallagher is defending champion, and having been 2nd the year previous, and 10th in 2011, he really does look overpriced at 50-1, even accounting for the cream at the head of the market. Gallagher has performed well since the turn of the year, and will face into this week with plenty of confidence.

Last in is another former winner, Miguel Angel Jimenez. He knows his way around here better than most, and seems to have had his price inflated on the back of a missed cut last week. But that was  a track he has no great affinity for, and he cant be accused of not being in form. His previous 5 outings resulted in a win and 4 other top 20s. There is plenty of life in the old dog yet!!

1.6pts e.w Cabrera Bello 14-1(w/o Big 3)
.6pt e.w Ross Fisher 40-1(w/o big 3)
.5pt e.w Stephen Gallagher 50-1
.3pt e.w Mig Angel Jimenez 80-1

In the Phoenix Open, Big Phil would be the most likely winner, but he has to prove he is fully fit after last weeks back troubles, so is easy to pass over.

First port of call was Ryan Palmer. He is in superb form, and though struggling to get over the line, he resembles Jimmy Walker in that if he keeps putting himself in position on Sunday, its going to happen soon. This may be the week, at a track where he has plenty of previous, finishing off with a 62 to claim 5th last year. He can reel off birdies for fun, and that is what will be needed around here. Anything under 20 under probably wont get it done.

Im in danger of following Billy Horschel over a cliff, but he still looks one to follow for the foreseeable future. In my book he played terrible last week, yet finished 22nd. He has been making a few silly errors each round, but he is too good to not cut these out soon. He was 11th here on debut last year, and is the type to revel in the carnival atmosphere of the 16th.

I am staying away from the market principles, so am adding 4 others to the team sheet. All have excellent course and or current form.

Ben Crane at 100-1 would be the pick of them in my book. 4 top 20s here in his last 6 appearances, he has an obvious affinity for the place. A poor showing last week seems to have seen him ignored by the market, but this is certainly more his type of event.

Kevin Na, Matt Every and JB Holmes complete the team. Na is a bit of a pr*ck ijn my book, but has shown he can win, and could easily pop up again here.
Every is improving all the time, and his turn should be near too. He pulled out last week, so assuming all is well, could benefit from that this week.
Holmes is twice a winner here, and has been playing well enough on tracks he has little form on, to suggest he can get involved again on his favourite track.

.75pt e.w Ryan Palmer 35-1
.75pt e.w Billy Horschel 33-1
.5pt e.w Matt Every 50-1
.3pt e.w Kevin Na 90-1
.25pt e.w Ben Crane 100-1
.3pt e.w JB Holmes 90-1

I don't want to back Tiger, because think he should be a point or so bigger, plus the original hope was to be on Mcilroy at a similar price, but that may change!! As Huddys says, I be disgusted if he won , and I not on!!

GL all.

Running Total  +34.6pts