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workrider
01 Nov 13 19:00
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Date Joined: 29 Jun 02
| Topic/replies: 31,512 | Blogger: workrider's blog
I'm fully convinced S. E. Does not truly stay 3 miles and he is my lay of the day tomorrow ....A little surprised R Power getting the gig on Dedigout , Jessie has a runner in that race  as well , is this a hint that all's not well between them....

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Replies: 203
By:
kingrat
When: 01 Nov 13 19:30
standby!yre mug chums will be arriving shortly.Laugh
By:
Slabster
When: 01 Nov 13 21:01
Hi workrider,

I don't think there is enough evidence to conclude that Sizing Europe doesn't stay three miles, a distance he has only ran over twice. He has also ran over 2m 7f on one occasion, when beaten by China Rock at Punchestown, but that was his seasonal debut and he's been below par on his reappearance a few times.

His first run over three miles, when he finished second behind Kauto Star with China Rock in third, he never jumped with the same speed that he does over shorter trips and was very deliberate. In the circumstances it wasn't a bad run to finish just four lengths behind the winner. Even allowing for this, he reversed placings with China Rock suggesting he need the aforementioned seasonal debut.

The year Quito De La Roque beat him, he went head to head with The Nightingale from a long way out at what looked to be a crazy pace on the ground. They ultimately cut each others' throats and unsurprisingly he stopped to a walk late on as Quito De La Roque ground him down. However, he jumped better this day than his previous effort at the trip.

He's a lot more relaxed these past couple of seasons and you could argue he looked at his best over 2m 4f last year when winning at Clonmel, despite some stellar efforts over two miles.

The only times he's been beaten since that effort behind Quito De La Roque were when beaten into second in the Champion Chase the year of the final fence fiasco, and finishing second to Sprinter Sacre twice last season.

That's a serious record in fairness, and 3/1 is tempting for tomorrow's race imo.

______________________________________________________________________________________________________________

The Powers Whiskey race has me scratching my head. If Toner D'Oudairies maintains the improvement he showed last time he could win but I can't forget how mediocre he looked not that long ago. A race to watch I think.

I'm more looking forward to Sunday's card at Cork, will be having two or three bets I'd say.
By:
pa lapsy
When: 01 Nov 13 21:12
Good post Slabster,find it hard to disagree with anything you said particulary regarding Sizing,not sure wise to rule him out at the 3m and his price is almost appealing as you are saying,not a 1/3 i believe as well WR.
Very tough card i thought as well,as with all others tomorrow,also going to wait til Sunday.
By:
Slabster
When: 01 Nov 13 21:25
Thanks Pa, say I'll back Sizing and leave the rest alone as well. few interesting races, tough though they are, should be good viewing. Nicholls has won the 2m 4f race the past 4 or 5 years has he? Given the lack of an irish standout (imo) that'd nearly make his horse worth a punt at 5/2.
By:
pa lapsy
When: 01 Nov 13 21:40
He won it the last 5 years Slabster, know what you are saying in that he knows what it takes to win it and highest rated to boot(though only lb between 6 of them),still hasn,t a race for 8 months though, always find it hard to work out form with different countries,for the same reason no interest for me in breeders cup really only the spectacle.
By:
Slabster
When: 01 Nov 13 21:53
Yes he's highest rated and in receipt of weight too! The Irish horses were beating each other all season so might be worth putting the faith in Big P.

Likewise, I only watch the races with European runners really.
By:
norn iron
When: 01 Nov 13 22:44
CANT BELIEVE DAVY RUSSEL ON RYE MARTINI  GOT 6 DAY BAN FOR HOLDING his GROUND  WHEN BUTLER TRIED GO UP THE INSIDE . ANY ONE ANY VIEWS ON IT ? PS MAYBE THATS REASON POWERE ON DEDIGOUT AS COVER WEN DAVY OFF ?
By:
Slabster
When: 01 Nov 13 22:46
Russell rides Tofino Bay in that race norn iron.
By:
Slabster
When: 01 Nov 13 22:48
No need to shout by the way Grin
By:
norn iron
When: 01 Nov 13 23:04
BAD EYESIGHT M8 hence CAPS LOCKCool. I NO BUT STRANGE POWER ON SECOND STRING AND NOT JESSES RUNNER & THE WINNER  OSCARS WELLSLove
By:
pa lapsy
When: 01 Nov 13 23:05
Bad manoeuvre from Davy on a horse that wasn,t going great,the gap was open and lucky nothing bad came out of it,surprised not mentioned either here or on the main forum,thought it was at least careless at the time.
By:
norn iron
When: 01 Nov 13 23:09
PA  BUT 6 DAYS VERY HARSH WHEN BUTLER TRIED FORCE THRU  ON HORSE GOING WELL ? I DIDNT BACK EITHER. JUST THINK BOTH WERE AT FAULT .  JEEZ MICHEAL HOURIGAN HORSES RUNNING WELL COMPARED LAST YEAR = FALSE ECOMEMY  FOR RUBY WHEN IM SURE HE COULD RIDE  DEDIGOUT  ?
By:
pa lapsy
When: 01 Nov 13 23:19
Very near an accident all the same,not sure he had the right to do what he did, beg to differ on it but accept like yourself and others hitting his livehood isn,t maybe the right thing either.
Hope you had a good season with the googlys, get a bit of that funny money off the books tomorrow yourself and WR,gl there.
By:
workrider
When: 01 Nov 13 23:39
Good post Slabster , many valid points , can see the giggy horses making this a strong test of stamina for SIZZING ....PLUS WILLES LAD WILL GO A STRONG GALLOP ....They will try and run the finish out of him , also the fact hes getting long in the tooth , having said that , he looked a million dollars at gowran , no doubt he be there or there abouts , just cant see him lasting it out....
By:
Slabster
When: 01 Nov 13 23:45
You could be right about the Giggy hosses WR, Roi Du Mee and Quito will probably force it. If First Lieutenant was on top form I'd fancy him to beat Sizing but I think he takes a couple of runs to reach peak form. A great race in prospect so early in the season Happy
By:
Santry
When: 02 Nov 13 08:16
A few good races at Down Royal but not easy to solve. The 3 miles will stretch Sizing Europe and I can see him being picked up late on by something especially with the 3 Gigginstown horses in the field. First Lieutenant their No 1 and I feel this will be his day. Sizing Europe cannot be getting any better and couldn't win this in his prime.
Rolling Aces could win the other race with question marks over the Irish horses for one reason or other . Good luck all.
By:
workrider
When: 02 Nov 13 10:35
Norn just rang said its blowing a gale and lashing it down ..Think I've gone odds on not to go ...
By:
norn iron
When: 02 Nov 13 11:03
SUN OUT CrazySTRONG WINDS THINK FORECAST COULD WELL BE WRONG
By:
norn iron
When: 02 Nov 13 11:40
GERDAGO EW
GILT SHADOW   EW  RUDOLF  (REV 4CAST)
FALSE ECOMEY NB    REV4CAST THOMAS EDISON
FIRST LIETENTANT  DANGER  PRINCE DE BEAUCHANE ( BIG PRICE FOR RUBY& WILLIE) REV4CAST
TEXAS JACK  REV4CAST DEDIGOUT
DROP ANCHOR SAVER SLEW CHARM EW
SHEMSHAL NAP 
GOOD LUCK PUNTERS
By:
kingkauto
When: 02 Nov 13 12:28
Posting on here seems to put a hex on anything i back but will give it another go!
Gilt Shadow: You would have to respect the Crawfords around here and this horse a very impressive bumper winner hammering silver tassie on this track last year. The 2nd behind the liquidator reads well too. Another plus is the magic sign are 11/4 vs 7/2 generally! Enchanted Forest looks a lay and none of the form of the others matches up to Gilt Shadow except Rock the World but at the prices i prefer Gilt Shadow..
Texas Jack: Goes well fresh and this time of year, had a good campaign last year even only being beaten 15 lengths at cheltenham. He mixed it with all the best novices last year. Think he's the value
2:30 no bet. The ground seems to be gone against Sizing whcih would automatically draw you to First Lieutenant. However I think he is more of a spring horse and I wasnt at all impressed with his debut, dont think we'l see him at his peak until Christmas so i il swerve.. After that you could make arguments for and against all the rest so no bet.
Great days racing ahead...
By:
callitasucit
When: 02 Nov 13 13:54
Backed Sizing at 4s, and Flight at 3s. 5-4 coupled. Also, Sizing was with Bet 365, who will give 50 euro worth of free bet if he wins. 5-4 seems very big anyway. Sizing is very consistent, so him underperforming wont be an excuse. He barely failed to last home in this two years ago, but better ground and less exuberance should help today. Flight will no doubt improve as the season goes on and as the ground dries out, but he has the advantage of a prep run this year, and is a better horse now anyway. Kauto has fto in each of last 3 seasons, but considering his overall form, and his 6-2 price, surely too much emphasis is being placed in this stat. Mount Belbulben only has one run that entitles him to be anywhere near these, and is hardly the most reliable. The rest simply aren't good enough. I make it a 4-7 that one of the two oblige, so have backed accordlingly.
Was told before the Galway hurdle that Thomas Edison had been laid out for that for over a year. He travelled very well through the race, but being a flat bred, just could see it out in quagmire conditions. He is surely better than current mark, so should go very close today. 6.4 looks worth a bet.
By:
Ozymandius
When: 02 Nov 13 14:24
In the case of say, First Lieutenant, or any horse for that matter,  how much can you realistically improve his fitness in the space of 16 days?

You get him home form his first race, which presumably takes a while to get over, you have a small window to get some work into him before resting up for next assignment....

I really wish we had access to the weights of these beasts on raceday.  Without being paddock-side, how are you supposed to know how fit they are?
By:
norn iron
When: 02 Nov 13 14:26
OZZY PITY WORKRIDER NOT THERE AS BELIEVE ME HE IS A GOOD PADDOCK JUDGE   AND ANY INFO WE GET CAN ONLY BE OF HELP / GL
By:
norn iron
When: 02 Nov 13 14:30
GILT SHADOW LOOKS DECENT PROSPECT
By:
punchestown
When: 02 Nov 13 14:35
Agreed norn,won with something in hand,will be interesting to see how Mount Benbulben goes later on but can be keen in his first outing after a break which won't help here.
By:
silvergreaser
When: 02 Nov 13 14:42
Have to agree with workrider here as regards SE.

I think he's a bit of a softy in the finishing dept, even over his best trips, looks good bullying trees when long odds on, but has often come up short against better quality chasers, rather than lay I think I'll have a bet on FL.
By:
huddys
When: 02 Nov 13 14:50
Gone with Thomas Edison aswell call.
By:
silvergreaser
When: 02 Nov 13 15:00
Unlucky guys would surely have won on the bridle without the bad interference?.
By:
workrider
When: 02 Nov 13 15:01
Very unlucky lads , would have won barring accidents....
By:
callitasucit
When: 02 Nov 13 15:01
Think we very unlucky there Huddys. Surely would have won. Great effort to finish where he did.
By:
pa lapsy
When: 02 Nov 13 15:01
Nearly certainly,very unlucky indeed.
By:
Swardean
When: 02 Nov 13 15:02
A lot of disrespect for SE on here.
By:
callitasucit
When: 02 Nov 13 15:03
Hope its not a sign of things to come!!
By:
workrider
When: 02 Nov 13 15:06
Swardean , certainly not disrespectful of a great servant , He's a true champion , gives his all in every race , you could't have asked for anything more from a horse , sentiment apart , as a betting proposition today he doesn't fit the bill ...He has my full respect...
By:
punchestown
When: 02 Nov 13 15:11
Can't see the point of bottoming SE today whether he wins or loses with the whole season ahead.
By:
callitasucit
When: 02 Nov 13 15:15
What price would you make him WR? I couldn't see how he could be any bigger. There is too many holes in the opposition. A good 90 minutes racing coming up. Shame At Fishers Cross missed his engagement. I will have a few quid on my old friend Captain Sunshine. Tidal Bay, for all he is entitled to be fav, is now nearly 13, sometime soon he wont come back as good as he was. And there just doesn't seem as much between Captain and the rest as the market suggests. Granted, he took a couple of sighters before hitting peak form last year, but if he wasn't deemed fully ready for today, surely they would keep the first time cheekpieces for another day. Worth a bet 12 imo.
By:
J.R.Hartley
When: 02 Nov 13 15:22
Would love to see Sizer win this personally.....has never got the respect he has deserved imo.
By:
Swardean
When: 02 Nov 13 15:28
I think the crawfords double up, Got the Nac in the 4.15.  GL
By:
workrider
When: 02 Nov 13 15:30
I think they have him priced right CALLIT..
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