....N.H. HORSES WHO YOU THINK WILL FAIL TO MAKE THE BIGTIME THIS SEASON .....

A really brave call.

I'd worry a bit for Champagne Fever,  that must have been a dog hard race at Cheltenham he had to finish in front of 2 Champion Hurdle horses. He looks like a horse who will always give himself a hard time and some of his blowouts have been as spectacular as his wins.

He was supposed to have been an impressive jumper when he won his 4YO PTP at Quakerstown and they were apparently thinking of taking the Florida Pearl route and going straight over fences last year.Having said that I won't be taking any short prices on him in novice chases.If he even has a reasonable year though would prefer to have a dual festival winner on my side,although the Arkle takes plenty of getting(winners like my way de solzen)he looks as if the Jewson trip would suit better.

That is a point, he could be an absolute monster over a trip and has been doing all he has so far on raw class. I've a strong feeling the Champion Hurdle winner will come out of last years Supreme Novices so I do think what he has done so far has been exceptional, it is more the way that he is doing it. But then I guess it is only sensible for a strong stayer to lead over 2 miles. I don't like the way he was eased home at Navan and Punchestwon last year and while he was a class hurdler, I'm not sure I like Novice Chasers to have had quite as hard a time, it didn't stop Sizing Europe mind!!

He got the ride of the meeting in last years opener and the ground was over watered for the first day.I agree completely with you about MTOY and Jezki(good ground and BJG).Ballycasey is out for the season but it would be folly to try to guess which festival race CF will end up in,wouldn't surprise me if he's beaten first time up especially on good ground.

Yep, and he might just be one that you wouldn't want to run too often and not at all after Cheltenham if the ground dictates.

Converse to the opening question, I'd say the horse that is going to take off this year is Sir Des Champs. I'd love to know if Mullins would run him in the King George. As a trainer he has done it all in Ireland, I think there are only really 3 races that can add to his legacy now and they are the King George(again), the Champion Chase and the Gold Cup. I'd love to see Sir Des Champs on a bit of nice ground around Kempton winding it up pretty early like he did in the Gold Cup, I think he'd probably murder them!!

Will throw in Mount Benbulben here.

The talking horse of the forum now for a few years and has done well since that famous day in Tinahealy. However he won his Grade 1 in a race that completely fell apart and adding to that tally will not be easy.

He has a mark of 160 (1lb lower than Denman was after his novice season!!)which surely rules out any handicaps. If he heads across the water I would fear that he would not return so hopefully they will pot hunt with him over here and they might win another soft Grade 1.

dj876     28 Sep 13 14:01 
He got the ride of the meeting in last years opener and the ground was over watered for the first day.I agree completely with you about MTOY and Jezki(good ground and BJG).Ballycasey is out for the season but it would be folly to try to guess which festival race CF will end up in,wouldn't surprise me if he's beaten first time up especially on good ground.

Is this right, or do u mean Pont Alexandre?

Apologies. BJG you're correct,I meant Pont Alexndre.

was going to bet curley bill for supreme novices..........think hes a brilliant horse........cant understand why hes 100000/1 for cheltenham.......maybe wonks is right.......he may not be as good as everybody says.........

NOW NOW NUTTY , LETS KEEP CALM ....

would ya ever go to bed ya total numpty.......how the hell is curly bill a bigtime horse........hes a good summer horse.......thats all.......

^ 100% correct,you open the thread and you're expecting to see a festival bumper winner or something of that ilk not a winner of a 5 runner 11k hurdle at Listowel.

agree with dj.......my horse to fail is sir des champs......will never recover from cheltenham gold cup......didnt even run well at punchestown........even though he won......

dj876 ...Lots of people have a good opinion of this fellow , and expect him to improve into a really good horse this season , I don't ....

Our Conor,Simonsig.

Both spoke of as second comings and on the cusp of racing greatness already,Open company is a whole new ball game and think both could struggle to carry such reputations.

Cant agree re Simonsig but  Our Connor well thats a different matter , Barry paid a little over the odds methinks....

simonsig,
this horse is a monster..people who work at hendersons rate him as good as anything else in theyard(including the aeroplane ss)I know this thread is about horses that will fail..i hope our connor is agrade 1 horse..but like others I think he may struggle @champion hurdle level?

You seem to know a stable lad in every yard in England Tony??I doubt there are many at Seven Barrows that think Simonsig is as good as Sprinter Sacre.
What don't you like about Our Connor?

i wont rise to that dj, but i never said i knew a stable lad..but if you want to know i do know a owner or 2 at the yard..who go there 1-2 times a month...our connor,..i like our connor i just think he may be found out at champion level..i hope im wrong..as for simonsig..the ex stable jocky has said many times on tv that the horse is rated as good as ss by 50% of the yard..so what about him dj?..he,s in there weekly so he must have a idea?

Simonsig is a horse who divides opinion,For me i think his jumping frailties will be exposed against more experienced rivals,Not doubting he has a engine but so does my car and that can't clear a fence properly either.

A ridiculous comment to make that he is as good as Sprinter Sacre-The Arkle he scrambled home in was an Egg and Spoon race-the runner up(Baily Green) who was clear of the third was subsequently hammered at Aintree and Punchestown.I will mitigate the performance somewhat by NJH saying he wasn't right leading up to the Arkle but Simonsig wouldn't get within 15 lehgths of Sprinter Sacre in a 16F/20F chase.

Our Connor is very decent but we will have to wait and see how he gets on good ground and it looks like the triumph field were poor but couldn't have been any more visually impressive.

No you just implied that you were talking to a stable lad,but anyway ignore that,I see on the other thread that you have raised it a notch by saying that you spoke to Henderson recently about West Wizard at Aintree. Surprised that NJH was able to say with a year to the festval that West Wizard was the best novice they had.So Tony do you know Nicky Henderson on a personal level or are you just some random race goer bothering him??

Henderson was talking up West Wizard on tv at the end of last season,I'll assume he has one much better he isn't so keen to talk about to random racegoers or camera crews.

random is the word dj..i must be honest..i got a minute with him..going to pre parade, as i asked him is it true that you rate the horse as good as his assistant told me?..i got the answer i have said i did..but he also told me tistory would win the grade 2 bumper on the Saturday..and that was a let down..as west wizard was meant to run in that race...another acquaintance of mine who i don't see that often who works for a racing paper also told me that they fancied tistory for that race so needless to say i lost money...that's racing..

a lot of people knew about ss GUTFEELING? i backed it for the supreme as it was well fancied..but they always said it would make a chaser...as for dj saying simosig is not up to ss..he may be right..i personally feel simonsig needs it soft and on that ground i would have him ..but it is a fact whether dj likes it or not ..some at the yard rate him as good as ss..as i stated mick fitz has said so a few times..im only quoting what is well known...as for the run @Cheltenham..yes he did not look as good as he has before..but ss @punchy didn't look as he had all year..i believe there were excuses for both horses?

rumour that he scoped bad after chelt?

Kavvie, NJH has suggested in the media he did indeed scope badly, wasnt himself up to the race 'he must be a very good horse to win when that sick' regardless of opposition.

Unlike Tony57, im not privvy to information from Mullins, Henderson, Nicholls, or know owners from just about every stable in the land, whilst securing mythical prices yet back tracking at a rate of knots when someone checks the oddschecker history!

However, Although it seems plenty are talking about West Wizard, id suggest Captain Cutter could be every bit as good as WW. Although beaten in good races by Turnandgo & Red Sherlock i think this fella will excel over timber.


In reply to Workriders original question i cant think of an exciting prospect that is gonna go to **** as im more of a glass half full person!
If pushed id me sceptical about Al Ferof returning to be Grade 1 class, i think his win at Cheltenham flattered him greatly, also Just a Par is being banded around as something special over a fence by plenty of the stable tours, id reserve judgement actually as i would expect PN to have something better

one think about you rick is jealousy go,s threw your bones..no one checked the prices bar me..i saw west wizard was quoted @33/1 in a independent bookie where I live..i had no doe on me but rang 365 who didn't have a price but gave me 28/1 when I mentioned it was 33/1 with the indie..i checked on 365 a day or so later and thought I saw 25/1..so thought I had not got a great price..seeing as the horse only went into 16/1 on the 23rd of this month..20s was available or more up to then..i checked no one else..and co,s im honest I said what I was told..jealous wannabes  like yourself love to blow things up that have no basics in fact..there is some one on this site who was with me at Aintree..saw me speaking to the people ive mentioned and was talking to one of them with me..i don't tell lies...unlike some on here...you never post on this site but like the ponce next door like to cause trouble..you would be known in Liverpool as a old woman(a chandler)..I hope one day I may be able to see you face to face..but I suspect you are like that ponce rat..a coward..hide behind a t.v screen and tell lies and stir crap for personal grativacation?

Yes Tony, im sure like most on here,  im really jealous of your connections.

I normally find myself compelled to post after some of the laughable comments you make on here. Im always keen to keep an eye on your tipster column too. You even talk nonsense about prices you claim (e.g 9/1 the night before for a bumper horse, anyone with a sane mind knows they never price up the night before or are you counting the 5er matched on Betfair)

I have posted some thoughts on the above thread started by workrider, but as i suggested earlier couldnt let it go without having a laugh at you.

Im also laying the Shark Hanlon horse for as much as i can get it laid for in the 5.35. So stick some in the blue side for me please. This was very much flattered at Listowel lto and the price is wrong.

just so anyone reading this can know the history of this man..i put up a thread after a great ride by barry geraghty on our man zebo..he looked beat 2 out I just said what a ride..no more..someone come on and said the same thing and what a jockey he was..i replied and said yes I thought my bet was well gone.....then rick the prick..comes on and tells me im aftertiming!and all this hate he has for me is co,s I sent him a p.m telling him what I thought of him....

you can check any of my posts you want , I have nothing to hide...that's the thing when your honest..your having nothing to fear..so I didn't fancy a horse that won!..im sure you back a lot of winners...?

Ha a real in depth history. A few members of the Supreme Racing Club told me a bit about your history now that would be a story for the forumites. A DSS scrounger in his piss stained tracky'bs with a dream of owning a share in a lease horse, all went to your head Tony 'lad'

haha..ive never worn a trackys...and im not on the dole...more lies...

Ah sorry Tony forgot you 'try to make the game pay' bet your dole dont last long mind. Sharks horse stuffed out of site so imagine i will eat ok tonight.

your name says it all about what you think of yourself!probably look like ken dodd with not tobob to rub together

poor old tony has been caught out in a blatant lie and is not man enough to admit it.that line in the movie A FEW GOOD MEN comes to mind "you can't handle the truth"

it wouldn't be a show without punch would it?..hi rat..what fantasy are you living in today?

jackanory!  jackanory! 

Are you one of those who swings the crutches whilst you walk too Tony? Squeezing the English state for every penny?

Im ok for dough, so much so that if i had been walking past my local independent when a horse that was generally 16s was on their mythical board at 33/1 id have been able to put my hands in my pocket and pull out some cash.

I didn't know you liked that show rat?

do the decent thing tony and admit u were lying and the forum will forgive u and forget all about it,what do u say eh?

what a childish boy you are..you know nothing of the horses price on the 4th of july?..its only turned 16 on the 23 rd of this month you fool..you haven't a clue what you're talking about yet still chat ****..i don't need to justify how I spend my doe..but I,ll let you into a secret..there are people on here who know my financial status...I,ll give you a clue..i don't get any money from the state....and I have kids ...I go racing 2-3 times a month..oh by the way I just done a review of a jumps book for a friend of mine who is a journalist..his book has just come out..i put it on the site if your interested..?

Follow his daily tips here, this is what happens when he puts them up pre race. He likes to stick to 1st or 2nd favs i think.

http://sbbcolumns.co.uk/matos-quick-picks/

rat thanks for the offer mate..do know what? you do have a hart inside that blackness matebut im sorry to say im just to honest for my own good rat...I haveto go now got a bet in the last..take care ratty..

ffsthink of yre city tony,it has enough of a bad rep with out u adding to it.

boring ken dod..I put that up myself 3-4 months ago..what a knobhead you are..grow up you child..go play with your Tonka toys..

Whats the fact you have written a review (advert/publicity) of a book that sells very few copies compared to its market rivals got to do with you telling constant lies Tony?

Well done with the kids, she must get a few quid for them though? stick it behind the indies counter soft lad

funny rat...I thought you liked lime st?

What you betting Tony?

Coming from you Ratty thats a classic ....The guy who talks in thousands , yet when it comes to paying up runs like his name from a sinking ship ......RRR , i can assure you tony don't wear track suit bottoms ..He freely admits he's not a big punter , so no big deal , ..As a person who had never met me before in his life , he could not have been any kinder when we did meet last april ..In fact i'd say he'd make you proud  hes English...

thanks wr..but ive no problem with them thinking what they want..you and norn know who or what I am..oh by the way ken dodd..it was beat I done henrys girl..you see im honest I don't need to make myself look or be something im not.., it a sad day when you are given a hard time for being honest..and you get a hard time if you put up a loser or 2..yet the so called barrackers never put a tip up...hypocritical..but that's nothing new on here..

i am not interested in a character reference from an old fart of a fool.i have got this geezer tony well sussed.hes clueless with his tips,an after timer and now a proven liar.

Ratty i really think you should have a good look at yourself , maybe it might highlight a reality check....

of course rat...of course...may I apologize to those who came on here wanting to talk about horses..im sorry to say iam to blame for this crap also by answering these 2 fools..but ive said enough...

id never thought id say it........but it looks like there is a new pretender to the crown........for being the biggest ape on here......it really is 11/10 yer choice.......and 10/1 the draw.......twould be some battle between the two of them........

if workrider says tony is ok that will do me.i was also there last apr and was to meet the both of the,sorry i didnt but from speqaking to wr i know tony is a sound man,workrider forgot more about horses than the rest of ye will ever know..fact

he woulnt know mount benbulben.........from mount kilimanjaro........he might know more than u kavvie.......but that's no boast.....

pulie your getting too much iranian ...id say ur walking round like john wayne after he doing a job on u..

SIMONSIG FORM

E    RACE CONDITIONS    WGT    RACE OUTCOME    JOCKEY    OR    TS    RPR
Video    12Mar13       Chl 16Sft C1ChG1 85K    11-7    1/7 (2¼L Baily Green 11-7) 8/15F    Barry Geraghty    160    *    *
Video    27Dec12       Kem 16Hy C1NvChG2 13K    11-8    1/5 (35L Hinterland 10-11) 1/6F    Barry Geraghty    —    *    *
Video    21Dec12       Asc 19Hy C1NvChG2 19K    11-0    1/5 (49L Sulpius 11-0) 2/9F    Barry Geraghty    —    *    *
Video    14Apr12       Ain 20Gd C1NvHG2 28K    11-4    1/10 (15L Super Duty 11-4) 4/9F    Barry Geraghty    157    *    *
Video    14Mar12       Chl 21Gd C1NvHG1 56K    11-7    1/17 (7L Felix Yonger 11-7) 2/1F    Barry Geraghty    148    *    *
Video    15Feb12       Kel 18GS C2H 9K    11-2    1/6 (2¼L Knockara Beau 11-2) 2/7F    Barry Geraghty    146    *    *
Video    02Dec11       San 20GS C1NvHG2 12K    11-7    2/7 (2¾L Fingal Bay 11-7) 7/2    Barry Geraghty    —    *    *
Video    18Nov11       Asc 20Gd C3NvH 5K    10-12    1/9 (11L Brass Tax 10-12) 1/5F    Barry Geraghty    —    *    *
Video    25Apr11       Fai 18Gd NHF 25K    11-7    1/16 (13L Kandinski 11-7) 11/4F    Mr C Cully    —    *    *
No Video    09Apr11       Lim 24Gd PTP    12-0    1/6 (20L An Fear Aitiuil 12-0) 4/6F    Derek O'Connor    —    *    *
No Video    03Apr11       Csg 24Y/Sft PTP    12-0    F/12 (Wantanamoe Bay 12-0) 2/1F    C Cully    —    *    *
No Video    12Feb11       Krk 24Sft PTP    12-0    1/15 (¾L Ballywatt 12-0) 5/2    C Cully    —    *    *

HIS FORM SHOULD MAKES FOR GOOD READING

Kavvie...

pass no remarks on wingnuts he has just spent the day drinking cans of super tenants around the corner from the welcome inn on the gallowgates,he hitched a lift over to the crystal bell in glasgow x and got his lunch on offer at 1.75 and had enough to do a 10p ew lucky 15 in the adjoining hills......just an average day in the life of a wingnut....paulie wingnut to be precise......

One poster informs us of a list of Simonsig's runs and another informs us of a rumour that Simonsig scoped badly after the Arkle even though it has been on record in every Nicky Henderson interview for the last 6 months.Thank god we have the Irish forum to get the inside line.

the irish forum fedapes cup top 5 seeds are........
1. wonks.....
2. tony......
3. kavvie.....
4. richters.....
5. huddys.......

by the way......noel meade interviewed in Roscommon today.......thinking of aiming curley bill at the champion hurdle......looks like hes going to go there.......without another run.......

will you head to the london road tavern for the game tommorow night wingnuts,i hear there doing 2 cans of super tenants for the price of wan.....

Not read the whole thread (at end of page 1)but will do so in a minute.

However if an independent bookmaker was 33/1, would it not have been easier to go to the bank, with draw some money and use that to take the 33/1 rather than accept 5 points lower and have a card marked with 365?

Unless of course the bookmaker is located a long way from a bank machine (distinctly possible given some of the places I went to in Becontree and around Romford a few years ago) or the bookmaker will not accept bets from you?

distant it was not a case of that it was a automatic reaction from me to go to 365..the independent (dave pluck ltd)would only accept 20e/w anyway..(I did not tell 365 this)as used this to my advantage when asking for a price with 365..in the end I only got 30e/w at that price..as ive said the horse was still 20s up to last week I put my bet on 7 wks ago!it seems 2-3 independents were going 33/1 for small money on request ..

dj i dont be eagerly awaiting every nh interview with bated breath.ill be listening from now on as  anything he says is worth listening to.he never ran since the arkle so i didnt pass any remarks.i was merely repeating what i heard at the time.wasnt aware that it was so well known.i bow to your greater knowledge of all things nh!!?

Fair enough Tony.

You done yourself out of 100 on the win part through this method but more importantly if I thought I could get a bet on in cash at the same price as with an internet bookmakers, I would always do it as the last thing you want is a paper trail of activity that they can monitor. If I am getting a better price for cash than it is a complete no brainer.

He is a very well regarded horse alright and won very nicely on debut. I seriously doubt that he will be the prices you mentioned after his first couple of runs as you are foretelling a scenario where we are about to witness one of the best novices in the past 25 years if those consecutive price cuts are to be believed. He is surely not as good as Sweet Wake!!!

fair point distant,.....as you say im foretelling what I believe will happen..but he could flop on debut!..thats racing I just went with what the normal betting will react to a Henderson novice winning on debut and then maybe winning in listed or graded company?..i make no judgement that he is anywhere near sweet wake..!i was just playing out a scenario..that may or may not happen..there are lots of decent looking novices this season..im looking forward to EMPIRICAL, REGAL ENCORE,etc..never mind what mullins has he,ll have a big say now he,s coming over..

tony.......leave it out will ya.......sweet wake was a dud.......but obviously ya never heard of him......as for mullins.......he'll hav a big say now hes coming over........whats that supposed to mean.......

Benefeciant...

Think this is what Tony was referring to Paulie,Seems weekend raids could become weekday if he goes for the satellite yard.
Wonder who'd run the day to day stuff for him though and would he be spreading himself a bit thin trying to cover both the UK and Irish stuff.



http://www.cheltenham-festival.co.uk/2013-09-03/willie-mullins-to-launch-regular-raids-on-the-uk-this-season.php

gutfeeling........from what I read.........there is no satellite yard........or nor were there ever going to be......mullins will have runners at the big tracks.......that's all.......

Back to the topic lads......

Un De Sceaux looks really exciting but it's gonna be tough for him come the second half of the season when he has to run in the Grade 1 & 2's.

Simonsig looks all over the winner of the King George for me, even Sprinter Sacre can't keep up with him on the gallops at Seven Barrows - It takes an incredible horse to win an Arkle when only half right!

Bobs Worth still very much the horse to beat on the Cheltenham Gold Cup front. If he stays sound, he goes unbeaten all season I reckon.

Rebel Fitz already looks a contender for the Arkle, altho he's unlikely to run much once the ground gets winter soft. I think Champagne Fever could be even better over fences but he does have the tendency to throw in a bad run. Theres no way he goes for the RSA.

Agree with post regarding West Wizard, Geraghty was sweet on him last season too.

I think Faugheen could be very exciting on the novice hurdle scene.

And to finish off with the best of them all, Hurricane Fly. Really can't wait for the first head-to-head with Our Conor and really think Hurricane will show why he is the best since Istabraq. How he's not clear favourite in the Champion Hurdle betting after all he has done, I really don't know!

Potentially the best season we've had in a long time!

Think the topic was horses who will fail to make the big time.