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Deplasterer
11 Jun 13 10:47
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Date Joined: 23 Aug 10
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2nd major of the year lads, in what is usually one of the toughest ones of the four, due to the penal rough, which is a normal set up for a US open course. No real course form to go on as it is 1981 since the open has been played here. A hurricane swept through the area last week and although accuracy of the tee is still important, with the soft greens the bombers might just get away with it, bearing in mind it is a relatively short par 70 course in relation to most weeks on the PGA tour, my guess is scrambling and putting might just be the more important for this weeks event.

Anyways, having said all that first pick for me is mr straight, J Rose, who's achilles heel is normally his putting! Just hoping the flat stick behaves for him & if it does really can't see him being too far away come sunday.

Next up is a man who should have one at least one major by now, Dustin Johnson. Back from injury this year he has already got a victory to his name in his first start and last week was very encouraging with a t10. Very long off the tee, as long as he isn't too wild & gung ho, great mid/short iron player and streaky putter when on song, hopefully he can give a good account.

Another man who was very encouraging last week, also t10 and always seems to bring his best to the major table is our old friend, love him or loathe him, Padraig. Putting improved dramatically last week and I just feel this par 70 set up will suit him as well, & at the prices well worth the punt in my book & for those of a nervous dispisition, hopefully you will be able to trade your stake back at some stage during the proceedings as backing Pod is not for those that are faint hearted.

Adam Scott is getting a few bob of mine also.

Justin Rose 28/1 ew
Dustin Johnson 50's W&PL B/Fair
Padraig 110's W & Pl B/Fair
Adam Scott 26's Win B/Fair

GL all.

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Replies: 151
By:
pa lapsy
When: 11 Jun 13 13:17
Looks likely rain and possible thunderstorms for Thursday,with 5 inches already falling since last Friday won,t really fancy trying to get it out of wet rough after a poor drive,straight off the tee players look to have an obvious advantage to me.
Going to add after each round as think Thursday could be a bit of a lottery if it rains early for the morning players and play is halted for the afternoon ones with pending on which forecast seems possible and could give them a big advantage,right or wrong kind of favour the later starters.
Went with two outsiders C.Petterson at 380 and Paul Lawrie 550,also did top 5 at 40+ with them.
Petterson has made his last 8 cuts and tees off late in the day at 1.40 local time, Lawrie has made 6 from 7 and also tees off lateish at 12.40, if the thunderstorms don,t materialise he should have no bother playing in damp conditions in any case.
GL with your own picks.
By:
BIGNotorious
When: 11 Jun 13 16:58
Not too much intelligent input in the way of golfing knowledge to add here.
Havent a clue what type of weather favours who and all that jazz.
Just going to have a few modest ew bets on some of my favourites to have an interest.

Bubba
Rickie Fowler
Geoff Ogilby
and Westwood for me.

GL all.
By:
da fallon factor
When: 11 Jun 13 21:31
very hard this week as have very little course form to go on your going to need to be a good wedge player around here from 125yds and in apparantly stricker and Snedaker possibly best wedge players on tour

Rickie Fowler played well here in the walker cup a few years ago
Ryan Palmer in great form lately cud be nice ew bet first 6 places
cant make my mind up who to go with from top of the market
By:
JayTrumpOldTomDubbl
When: 11 Jun 13 21:35
Kuchar could be in the zone again, also anyone know how's Zach Johnson doing so far this year, as he is a kinda streaky player also, when on song ?
By:
pa lapsy
When: 11 Jun 13 21:41
Last 11 starts Jay,
71,3,19,65,48,35,34,mc,47,64,mc.
By:
huddys
When: 11 Jun 13 21:54
Have backed Tiger outright think its going to be his week,have backed Mickelson at 16/1 w/o tiger with powers after a good week last week think he will be pumped up for this week,and his putting was something else got 50 out of 50 putt within 8ft,if he puts like that this week he will be right up their come sunday.Have also done a trixie Westwood top english player 11/5,i know he is can break your heart at times but hes been playing very solid all year,McDowell top irishman 11/8.and Scott top Australian at 11/10,going to be a great week of golf,just hope the weather dosent ruin it,and ive backed K Stanley e/w with powers at 150/1 via the text betting,if you back somebody via the text betting with your acc they will give you 7 places,this offer only applies via text betting,best of luck.
By:
stan246
When: 11 Jun 13 23:41
Rory 25-1 e.w Stan 7 places, on the rain-softened course.
By:
ShannonSpray
When: 11 Jun 13 23:45
I have backed both Kuchar & Mickleson for an outright win.

Harrington for leading Irishman seems like great value at 11/2, but there is someone laying him heavily on the outright market at the moment.
By:
kincsem
When: 12 Jun 13 10:21
I've had a small bet on Rickie Fowler.
The Open in a few weeks appeals more.
By:
Deplasterer
When: 12 Jun 13 10:46
Harrington available at 150's now, is someone knowing something untoward or just a layer taking his fill?
By:
mp06
When: 12 Jun 13 13:40
r.fowler
r.moore
h.mahan
S.Cink all backd,prob do tiger in running also done rose,mannaserro kj in w/o woods market
By:
the jolly
When: 12 Jun 13 17:10
very difficult to get head around this one - much shorter course than normal with only 2 par 5s and plenty 4's less than 400 yds- but still 3 par 3's over 250 yds and a 630 yds par 5.   Probably doesn't suit players who normally make hay on the par 5's/

If the profile is a player who can hit accurate off the tee, with decent wedge play and can handle US Open greens, I will take stenson (75) and Dufner (70) against the field.   Also Rory at 25's has to be worth a dabble for a man who has won a major each of the past 2 seasons .... has the game if he can get his head right.
By:
callitasucit
When: 12 Jun 13 17:41
This one has me stumped.....and potentially brokeLaugh. For the last few weeks i had been very confident that one of Tiget, G Mac or Kuch would be ones to triumph, and had been dribbling money on. Had my two main bets(at least i thought i did) on Monday, e.w Kuch at 25s, 6 places, and e.w G Mac 28s, 7 places. Was waiting til today to unload on Tiger, when was hoping for enhanced prices. The cases for backing the first two, were basically cracking current form, and a course and conditions that seemed made for them, especially G Mac. Had also backed Michael Thompson e.w at 175-1, 5 places , and e.w 150-1, 6 places. Again i was anticipating hard and fast conditions, which would produce a winning score of close to par. Thompsons form on tough course is top class for any individual, especially so when you take into account his starting price for these events. Have also backed him for top 20 at 6s.
But conditions have changedCry!!
Its like doing your bets for the Grand National on the Monday, while skulling cans and firing up the bbq in searing heat. Only for Red Marauder style conditions to take over!! So have delved back in, and backed Dusty Johnson e.w at 50s, 6 places, who i have now got very sweet on. His iron play last week was superb, only for his putter to consistently let him down. That can be excused to an extent though, he may have been slighly rusty having not played alot lately prior to St. Jude. This lad will win a major....soon. Have also now included Henrik Stenson, e.w 80-1 7 places. His arrow straight 3 wood could be a huge asset around here. Possesses plenty of bottle and self belief, and is right back to his best of late.
Having already backed too many, i am tossing up whether to include Zach Johnson and Boo Weekley. If it does come down to a pitch and putt contest, there arent many better than Zach, while Boos approaches of late have been top drawer.
As ye can see, i need to have 5 of the first 6 home!!!
So, so far:
Tiger e.w 6s, 7 places.
Kuch e.w 25s, 6 places.
G Mac e.w 28s, 7 places
Dusty e.w 50s, 6 places
Mahan e.w 70s, 7 places(forgot mention himLaugh)
Stenson e.w 80s, 7 places
Michael Thompson e.w at 175-1 5 places, 150-1 6 places, 6-1 for top 20 finish

And after a few pints tonight, will no doubt add,
Zach e.w 80-1 7 places,
Boo e.w 100-1 7 places.

Good Luck all, i may meet a few of ye in the Credit Union loans department early next weekGrin
By:
padlock
When: 13 Jun 13 08:04
some juicy prices,cant have any european, ogilvy,moore,mahan,watney,watson
By:
pa lapsy
When: 13 Jun 13 08:52
Tour report on the pga site has a terrible weather forecast as has most other weather sites,not sure we will get much golf today,possible the early starters may get a few hours,after that looks very doubtful.
By:
irish_guy_13
When: 13 Jun 13 12:17
My darts.....

Keegan Bradley
Zack Johnson 
oosthuizen
bo van pelt
k j choi

gl all.
By:
db1974
When: 13 Jun 13 12:28
Rory
Graeme
Phil
Pod

for me
By:
Ozymandius
When: 13 Jun 13 13:17
My choices;

GMac
Kuchar

Some chap on the Golf Forum was very persuasive about the following long shots so I have had a small interest so as add to my weekends' entertainment.

Kevin Chappell
Michael Thompson
Jaco Van Zyl
By:
wildmanfromborneo
When: 13 Jun 13 13:31
Surely the forecast weather will suit the British and Irish players who have experience in foul conditions.
By:
wildmanfromborneo
When: 13 Jun 13 14:10
Darren Clarke playing like an auld wan but will love those conditions.Great pity Shane Lowry isint in the field as he would have a chance in that weather.
By:
pa lapsy
When: 13 Jun 13 18:56
Great start for the young fella Kevin Phelan, share of 3rd 1 shot off the lead in these early stages. Go On Kev
By:
BJG
When: 13 Jun 13 19:21
Where is he from or how did he qualify? Never heard of him
By:
pa lapsy
When: 13 Jun 13 19:23
All i know is he is an amateur,think he qualified in the states.
No doubt someone will of heard of him,looks about 18.
By:
guinness2dear
When: 13 Jun 13 19:24
He's from Waterford Castle club
By:
Deplasterer
When: 13 Jun 13 21:46
Scores are hard to come by, barring Phil's brilliant round. Steady start for my boys so can't complain, promises to be an exciting event and hopefully the weather behaves.
By:
pa lapsy
When: 14 Jun 13 13:47
Added Timmy Clark ew at 66/1 1/4 1-5 with pp. Looks to have the game for here,temperment with him is questionable but ought to be inside top 10 by end of round 1.
Course is growing on me,great test nearly a shame they have bunkers there as the rough is so penal,think it could have been tougher if no rain and place was lightning fast.
Good stuff this tournament, enjoyable.
By:
guinness2dear
When: 14 Jun 13 14:00
Except for Tigger gossing everywhere..
By:
pa lapsy
When: 14 Jun 13 14:10
Forgive my ignorance G2D, haven,t a clue what gossing is, can only guess he hawking up a few charteuse ones or else acting the typical tomcat and spraying it everywhere.
By:
guinness2dear
When: 14 Jun 13 14:22
Yakking up some yellow ones, lapsy. Disgusting habit.

I've counted 4 so far, and funnily enough he doesn't do it when he's 5 under..

He apologised a couple of years ago for doing it on a green (got fined)
By:
pa lapsy
When: 14 Jun 13 14:29
No need for it and setting a shocking example,know a fine isn,t much good,surely should be reprimanded in some way,some offical should have a word and tell him to cop on to himself.
By:
Deplasterer
When: 14 Jun 13 14:41
Pod was offered at 600's for donkey's this morning before play began, total disregard for a 3 time major champion. easy lay back now at 200's.
By:
db1974
When: 14 Jun 13 14:41
McDowell +6 after 1st round with 3 double-bogeys on the card Cry
By:
guinness2dear
When: 14 Jun 13 14:57
I think they did, lapsy, as they did with Keegan Bradley for the same..

Unfortunately Tigger runs the PGA not the members..
By:
pa lapsy
When: 14 Jun 13 15:09
Yeah know what you mean G2D,unfortunately he is nearly bigger than the game.
Deplasterer, i,d imagine the same "tactic" regarding Pod could pay a bit of dividend or at least a few free bets with the early starters again today,anyone that finishes with a respectable(say even as far as +4/5) enough round could well be overpriced,play looks to be following a near identical path to yesterday in that the later ones mightn,t finish and most will go backwards again.
By:
Vubiant
When: 14 Jun 13 15:12
One of the dreariest myths out there is this one about players from Ireland being somehow better at playing in wind and/or rain than players from sunnier climes.There is  no evidence for this whatsoever either historically or currently -yet it keeps being trotted out by lazy commentators.
By:
Deplasterer
When: 14 Jun 13 15:30
Yeah your right Pa, just identifying the right ones first of all & getting on a t the right money. They are gung ho some of the layers in the majors. Tiger is a shocking price at present, 15's, and plenty of takers too. The old lemmings will fall over the cliff for him. Great & all as he is I'd be going to the doctors tonite if I took anything near that price.
By:
Deplasterer
When: 14 Jun 13 15:36
13.5 takers now, jesus wept, & he doesn't go out for another 15mins. Wish I had a full bank, I'd be laying that till doomsday.
By:
Kelly
When: 14 Jun 13 15:43
The commentators do trot out the Irish wind players , Vubiant , not sure if there is evidence or not . Increasingly the high flight ball strikers have dominated world ratings recently , but we dont have too many in this category outside of Rory . Good to see a course like Merrion , not littered with water , and decent rough .  Whoever wins this will be the one who susses out "avoid the rough " , and copes with anything else the course throws at them .

Having said that , the real SSS for this course is 72 , 70 is a fairly artificial number  , maybe scores should be viewed in relation to level fours .
By:
pa lapsy
When: 14 Jun 13 15:44
Tis never worth it Dep,the equivalent of backing a 1/12 shot(by Laying).
In theory Phil is due a few visits to the rough and go backwards,might get cute too and won,t bother with the driver.Seen Tiger come back too many times though agree he is a fair bit underpriced.
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