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Thought I would get a thread up on this. Looking at the Derry v Down game at the moment but may as well put up some conflicting views on the Kildare v Offaly game.
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ChildOfMine2 28 May 13
This weekend's nap is Offaly (+9) with Powers. Offaly are much better than they were last year and Kildare aren't as good as they looked like they were gonna be. This could well be close but Offaly +9 is a cert! |
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The conflicting view here is that Kildare -8 at 11/10 with SJ.
Strengths: How Do Offaly Overturn 2012 Deficit? Last year, the scoreboard suggested that there were thirteen points between these teams – however on the field of play the gulf was wider still and only a man of the match performance from Alan Mulhall saved Offaly from an even heavier beating. Offaly have made some steps forward this Spring under Emmet McDonnell, but it’s hard to believe that they’ve improved by over two goals per game – while Kildare also seem to be moving in the right direction this year, with positive contributions from a lot of new young players. Croke Park Factor Offaly manager Emmet McDonnell this week was quoted in the Examiner as saying that his players struggled to deal with the hype of playing at Croke Park and the pressure of the big stage in the Division 4 final. He stated that several players fell short of their usual output by 1.5km or 2km over the course of the game, which hardly bodes well for this weekend and an outing on a bigger stage again, the Leinster Championship. Kildare have made Croke Park their second home in recent years, playing over twenty matches at HQ since Offaly last played championship football there in 2007, so we can be sure they’ll be well able to deliver on the famous sod. Offaly's Lack Of Physicality Offaly’s lack of physical power will be an issue in several key areas of the field, with midfield the obvious concern. However their full back line is also comprised of comparatively shorter men, with no likely starter standing at six feet tall or over. When we consider that Kildare are likely to line Tomás O’Connor out on the edge of the square, that aspect is a real worry for the Faithful County. League Does Not Lie So far this year the division one form has been well endorsed by strong performances from Mayo, Kerry and Cork, while division four sides have looked way off the pace – with the honourable exception of London. Even then, the subsequent kerfuffle in the media would suggest that last weekend’s shock in the Connacht championship said a lot more about Sligo’s problems than it did about London’s ability. Cork and Kerry both easily racked up double figure wins over decent division four opposition and while the Munster pair are entitled to be considered to be a couple of points better than Kildare on current form, they are by no means seven or eight points better, which the current handicap lines would suggest is the case. Weaknesses: Kildare Defence Defensively, Kildare haven’t been strong during this league campaign. In five of the eight games they played, they conceded sixteen points or more. Offaly’s attack is obviously not at the same level as division one sides, however there is a danger that if the result is resolved early in the game, Kildare might not completely shut down their opponents and instead just go point for point, keeping Offaly at arm’s length. Offaly Preventing Goals One aspect where Kildare will be tested in this tie will be their goalscoring. Offaly conceded three goals in eight league games, one in the first two minutes of the first game against London, and another in the last minute of their game against Carlow, when the result was decided. Tomás O’Connor’s presence will be an interesting examination of Offaly’s defensive credentials here, but in general, the Faithful County have been quite tight in the full back line and a clean sheet may stop Kildare from racking up a sufficiently big total for our bet. Kildare Choosing Wrong Scoring Option At the risk of pandering to stereotypes, Kildare’s ability to convert good possession into scores is up and down, at best. When they get the ball into the hands of their inside forwards in good positions, they will score – as would any team. However their style of play, with half backs surging forward and collecting handpasses from players who’ve picked up diagonal deliveries out on the wing, often leads to the wrong man ending up in the right place. Paul Cribbin is the perfect example of this. This year the former Aussie Rules export has got through a mountain of work for both the seniors and the under-21 team, but his ratio of points to wides is shocking. If the majority of Kildare’s shots in this game are taken by natural forwards like John Doyle, Padraig O’Neill and Seán Johnston, they will cover the spread. If they end the game with their half backs taking as many shots as their inside forwards – and that’s not as ridiculous as one might think with this Kildare group – then Offaly could stay close. Opportunities: Offaly Changes Have Weakened The Side Offaly manager Emmet McDonnell was forced to cut Seán Pender, Richie Dalton and Ross Brady from his squad earlier this month for disciplinary reasons. To put that into context, these three players started at 4, 6 and 9 against Limerick. In order to plug those gaps, Offaly will have to promote players who may not be ready, while it’s also likely that Brian Connor may be asked to drop out of the centre forward berth and move back to midfield. Connor at centre forward was the one central player who on paper, had the potential to dominate his direct Kildare opponent. Kildare Competition For Places The promotion of so many good under-21 footballers to the senior ranks this year has ensured that there will be real and meaningful competition for places in the Kildare squad right now, which should ensure that there will be no danger of Kildare stepping off the gas at any stage. If anything, a substitution is likely to increase the intensity in Kildare’s performance. The fact that so many of these under-21s went to school in Edenderry and so will be keenly cognisant of the local rivalry between Offaly and Kildare only adds to this factor. Lack Of Offaly Depth The removal of the three players from the Offaly squad has left the underdogs more than a little short on depth here, as evidenced by the fact that one of the players who is considered to be in with a chance of starting this week is Johnny Brickland, a twenty year old midfielder who has yet to play for the county at either senior or under-21 level in any competitive fixture. If the Offaly selectors need to look to their bench early here, they might not have a lot of worthwhile options, particularly in the midfield/half back sector. Threats: Kildare Can Perform Below Par Since Kieran McGeeney took over, Kildare have always found a way to get to the All Ireland quarter finals, at the very least – which would suggest consistency. However they have had some very ropey performances here and there, both inside and outside Leinster. Last year’s defeat to Meath in the Leinster semi-final was unforgivable, while they very nearly lost out to Limerick in the qualifiers, eventually coming through on the back of a late equalising score from Emmet Bolton. That kind of spectacular underachievement would of course make it impossible to cover an eight point spread. Threat Of Bad Weather Could Reduce Scoring Of all the playing surfaces in the country ,Croke Park is probably the one least likely to be adversely affected by the weather. However the forecast at the moment is for the current fine spell to break on Friday evening and for some heavy showers and overcast conditions on Saturday. The possibility of inclement weather would add a little bit of a random element to the tie, while wet conditions would also reduce the importance of high fielding around the middle, an aspect where Kildare would expect to dominate. |
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That's very good and thorough analysis. Plenty to consider in the run up to the game.
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Greeat preview DV, i kinda like Offaly+ the points, that's a big handicap to cover for Kildare. GL
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This is one on the Clare v Waterford game.
The 20/1 about no goal might appeal more than the 1/1 about Waterford grabbing the first one. Strengths: Clare Can Leak Goals When it comes to this market, Waterford’s main strength is Clare’s weakness. In six league games Clare scored four goals and conceded twelve, while Waterford were much closer to par with three scored and four conceded in five matches – admittedly a very low ratio. The Banner county do a lot of things very well but their high energy style, which involves a style of support play more commonly seen in football, can often see their defence caught out with poor mismatches in terms of size, pace and cover. Running The Numbers: Following on from the previous point, the numbers are very much on our side here. In this year’s NHL, goals made up 9% of Clare’s total score, and a shocking 27.5% of their total score conceded. Waterford were a much more steady 12% and 13% respectively, suggesting real frugality at both ends. If we average those numbers and soften them a little to allow for Waterford reverting to the mean in terms of total goals scored, then based on Clare as 2 point favourites with a total points expectancy of around 23.5, the Banner men would be expected to score around 0.9 goals. We could confidently predict that out of Waterford’s expected total of 21.5, 1.3 goals is their most likely estimate. What this tells us first is that no goalscorer at 20/1 is a decent bet with Stan James, but also that the probability distribution for the first goal would be something like 54% Waterford, 36% Clare and 10% none. Therefore Waterford to score the first goal looks a solid betting proposition at 1/1 with Bet365 and ****. Waterford Defence Defensively, Waterford are in quite good shape here and they will be very hopeful of denying Clare any clear goalscoring opportunities. Michael “Brick” Walsh has been outstanding at centre back while hurlers like Jamie Nagle and Darragh Fives have really stepped up in class over the last year. Liam Lawlor has been consistently excellent at full back and while there are concerns about Waterford’s mobility further out the field, particularly with Stephen Molumphy absent, that could lead to Clare creating a lot of point scoring chances but shouldn’t cause too much of an issue closer to goal. Weaknesses: Clare Attacking Pace Clare’s pace all across the middle third of the field will be a real concern here. Tony Kelly, John Conlon and Colin Ryan are all named in the half forward line and all three players are happy to drive for goal if the opportunity presents itself, so Waterford will have to be sure to gain control of the Clare puckout from an earlier stage, ideally to force Patrick Kelly to look for more set plays and more short controlled deliveries into the midfield sector. Loss Of Key Waterford Players In terms of Waterford’s scoring power, the Déise have lost a lot of key players to injury and retirement over the past year. Individuals like Shane Walsh, John Mullane, Eoin Kelly and Gavin O’Brien are all absent from the team that lined out in the corresponding fixture between the two counties last year. Jamie Barron and Jake Dillon are fine young prospects who will offer plenty of goalscoring threat of their own, but filling the slots vacated by Mullane and Kelly is no easy task. Opportunities: Clare Likely to Take Plenty Of Points A young and inexperienced Clare full forward line will undoubtedly bring a lot of energy and movement to Semple Stadium on Sunday, but they also spend a lot of time out the field, looking to pick up secondary possession and shoot from the intermediate zone, rather than playing for goals. Clare Defence Looks Vulnerable Granted any modern teamsheet released midweek is to be taken with a pinch of salt, but the absence of meaningful alternatives will mean that the full back line of Domhnall O’Donovan, David McInerney and Seadna Morey will almost certainly line out as selected – and by no stretch of the imagination is that a convincing unit. O’Donovan is the most secure of these three and McInerney has shown some good form in the league, but he is still very raw and the full back position is always a tough one in which to make your championship debut. The absence of Shane Walsh suits McInerney as a big physical inside man would cause him problems, but it’s eminently possible that Seamus Prendergast could spend some time inside for that very reason. Finally, Seadna Morey has been an injury doubt coming into this game. Regardless of that concern, Morey is a good all round hurler who has been wedged into the corner back position due to the lack of a better option, or at least an option that appeals to David Fitzgerald. His selection reeks of one of those where a manager deems a player too good not to select, so he shoves him in somewhere that he doesn’t belong. Corner back is a very specialist role and against an in form hurler like Jake Dillon, Morey is definitely a potential weak link here. Clare Worthy Favourites? Clare’s expected supremacy in this game is a consequence of what is perceived to be their greater potential, as opposed to their actual level of achievement. Potential doesn’t always deliver and particularly in the white heat of Munster Championship hurling,Waterford’s greater know-how could play a big part in the outcome. Threats: Clare Deliver On Potential Following on from the previous opportunity, the biggest threat to our bet here is that this Clare team are actually as good as many analysts believe them to be. They’ve been widely pitched as the most likely squad to usurp the big three, which is a big statement when we consider the age profile of the team. However there are several incredibly talented young hurlers in this group and if the Clare management team have them ready for the step up in level, then the two point handicap could be grossly inadequate. Clare Modifying Their System Another unknown quantity here is the possibility that Clare have evolved their approach from last year and that this will be the game where a new style will be unveiled, one that can produce the goalscoring that they need. We saw last year how Donegal were able to take their 2011 system and adapt it into a method that created plenty of scores – if any team is likely to do that this year, Clare are the leading candidates. |
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great analysis.very intresting as im an offaly man living in clare.fwiw i think clare will cover the handicap in beating waterford.last 2 times they met the expectation was that clare would win.they didnt but i think this it will spur them on sunday and they will simply outplay waterford.in the kildare match i think the handicap is about right and wouldnt be surprised either side of the 9pts..offaly arnt much better than last yr specially with the 3 lads gone.and kildare seem to be at the same level.id go for a kildare win by 8/10 pts depending on the weather,i hope im wrong tho!.the chances of a huge shock in football matches is getting less and less every yr with teams so professional and analysis of opponents so thorough.the london win wasnt a big shock because they were close to it in last few years and it had to happen sooner or later.even at that sligo were in hard luck not to snatch a draw at least near the end.
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Distant View are you the irish Kevin Pullen...Caoimhin O Pullian perhaps?...to be fair excellent previews...is Down V Derry in your sights?....
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anyone looking to go to the double-header in Croker, i have a pair of Hogan Stand tickets if you re interested
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Timberman,
Kevin Egan writes for us and does these previews. Writes as lonesharkoy (which is his twitter handle). My knowledge of Munster hurling would be about average and certainly not something that could lend itself to this type of analysis. As a Monaghan man (who are thankfully meeting Antrim and possibly then Cavan or Fermanagh), I would follow the Ulster championship very closely so will put some thoughts up later today or tomorrow. It goes without saying that even if we do make it through our side, an unpleasant experience is likely in the Ulster final as there are only a couple of teams in the country that can put it up to Donegal and they are not to be found in Ulster. |
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Not too often i will put us up but i am struggling to see how Limerick u21s are 6/4 tonight!
No doubt they have been shockingly disappointing 3 of the last 4 years bar the year they won Munster they have nt won a game i dont think, with poor chance conversion a big problem! They were moaning last year that it was the lack of training together that cost them, this year they have put some proper effort in and have played plenty of challenges (dublin, offaly, KK off d top of my head) Think they have a very decent team, dont know much about some of the Tipp team obviously but cant have limk being a 6/4 shot here, think its a corkin price - they did not turn up at all last year in this game and 9 of that team are still around and they will want to put that right and for once Limk will have the experience advantage with 7 senior pannelists Game on TG4 at 7.30 fwiw Usually wen i put us up we lose by 20 tho  |
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nice write up bjg..i mite chance a few quid.tipp are prob favs because its tipp.though a word of warning ,i was at last yrs tipp v clare u21 munster final.clare had to depend on a last min goal to win.they won all ire after so tipp wouldnt be too bad,even tho i dont know how many off that team are playing tonight..
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just noticed benny coulter to score over 1.5pts at evs even though he is named out on the half forward line,always dangerous from play and possibly his last championship season benny will be eager for a performance here,think down will make a few changes before sunday so will wait to then befor i think of backing them,could be a bit of value here at 5/4
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Getting shockingly outmuscled
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Usually wen i put us up we lose by 20 tho
Lookin that way turnin off |
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not looking good for ye.i rang a lad he said tipp were good this yr.bookies called it right
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offaly doing well.12/10 down
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Last minute penalty for Offaly converted as well and they seemed to finish strongly.
Well done backers with the points. |
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bit of pride restored.a few qualifier wins now would be great progress..
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bit of pride restored.a few qualifier wins now would be great progress..
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Out all day so bit late now but there was a big difference of opinion on John Heslin's points tally. spoils were 8/11 over 3.5pts, and Paddy went 4/5 under 5.5pts. Nice bit of middle ground there. I believe the 8/11 became 4/7 and the 4/5 became 8/15 so a few interested spectators. He has 3 in the first half afaik.
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How many one sided matches have been in the championship so far? Seems to be a few strong decent sides and then you have Tyrone, Down on their coat tails and then the likes of Sligo, Meath, Leitrim, London etc
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Agree, outside Division 1 there isn't a lot there, that is a very flawed Mayo side that got to the final last year. I think Kerry with Gooch pulling the strings at centre forward feeding Darren O'Sullivan and Declan O'Sullivan are the biggest threat to Donegal. That new lad with the red hair at centre field whose name escapes me seems to have great bite and athleticism, hopefully one of the mid twenties guys who've been around a while can step up to partner. It's essentially the same deck but shuffled, but they have one thing at half forward that none of the others teams have to the same degree, two players in Galvin and Cooper who can kick pass accurately at 40 yards. Cooper has to do a Sheflin this year. I think he will.
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Heslin finishes with 5, didn't score from 40th min. Some happy punters, 4-5pts paid over 7/1.
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Most of the champoinship matches to date have been one sided , matches only for the committed followers . Even the "tight" matches have been one sided at the death , possible testimony to the fact that there may be another day the same year . Used to be that if you went out first round you headed for America or kicked your heels for the rest of the summer .
Have seen some decent football though so far despite the one sidedness , but maybe its easier to play expansively when you are not under pressure . |
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The back door is for the players which is understandable as they train so hard, but it would be a far more open and entertaining championship without it and its abolition would mean that a lot of club players would get to play their championship matches at a decent time of year for football.
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Agree with Kelly its time we bring in a champions league type championship, run the provincials separately if you really want to stick with your embedded tradition?.
GAA is a stickler for tradition and often nails itself to the cross rather than embrace the future?. The Tipperary football mangager is asking for a B Championship and why wouldnt he?, they simply cannot compete against Kerry and Cork, like most munster championships its either Kerry or Cork, or Connaught its usually Galway or Mayo?, some might say Dublin are dominating the most populous province Leinster?, but if you look back on the last 12 years or so Dublin have won many but often by the skin of their teeth?, and have been beaten too?, so Leinster is much more competitive than some are prepared to admit?. They maintain that Ulster is the most competitive championship, yet apart from Donegal winning it the last 2 years it was either Armagh or Tyrone for the 10 years before that?. 16 county A Championship and a 16 County B championsip, how hard is that organize Mr GAA?, oh but what about tradition???. Eff your stupid tradition and embrace bloody common sense? |
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Not sure what direction ( if any different) we should go .The old days favoured teams like Kerry or Cork , who only had to win 3 matches to wrap up an All-Ireland . That they often had the best players was also a big help .
The revised current method has the advantage that it gives a lot more games , some of them very interesting as they mix up teams from different provinces . In theory it gives more opportunity for the weaker teams to hone their skills against the more traditional top teams , but the same counties keep winning generally , and the weaker teams are still fodder . But maybe its good for the game that those weaker counties get more than one day out for their supporters . All sport worldwide is broadly similar , the benchmarks from the past still stand out , and no tweaking allows substantially different outcomes in the long run . Reference benchmarks , and apropos nothinig else , looked up Herb Elliots career stats recently . Retired at age 22 , won everything ,unbeaten anywhere in the world for 4 years at a mile or 1500 metres , world records regularly , his winning time from Rome ( on cinder track type ), would have placed him second in last years Olympic final , 52 years on . Rory and co , eat your heart out ! |
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The back door system might have had its heart in the right place Kelly but its flawed, most of the weaker teams usually only get one bite of the cherry in the back door before been consigned to history.
Running an A & B champions league type championship would benefit many, for instance the four bottom teams of the A championship will play off and the 2 losers relegated to be replaced by the winners and r/up of the B championship so no team can take it easy when out of contention, obviously you can't have relegation in the B championship as there is nobody to replace them, but maybe the GAA can offer cash incentives for the various county boards the higher your team finishes in both championships?. Personally I'd scrap the national league altogether as its just been used as training ground no manager is unduly perturbed how they do in the league, at least with a champions league type system every team is guaranteed at least 3 big days out, and those unfortunate enough to finish bottom will have a nervous 4th day to decide their faith?. |
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Kelly you might find them interesting but they are a very poor standard, i totally agree with Silver here it's flawed but what is the answer to fix things? I'm not sure, put in a champions league style tournament sounds great but what people like about championship is the do or die type matches and the attendances will become not much better than they are in the league after the initial novelty wears off and i believe the GAA think the same and that is why this has not been brought in. Still it's probably the best I would have an open draw 32 teams 8 groups of 4 top 2 go into round of 16 knock out, then quarters, semi, final. Teams will have a min of 3 matches then, and like Silver said you could have the 3rd and 4th place teams enter into a B championship afterwards giving the poorer teams 4 matches at a min. GAA need to sit down and look at how other sports do things and how they can improve !
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Flaws in CL style format are that attendances would be poor for most matches and there would be many meaningless matches. Also, it would be difficult to differentiate it from the league and there would be an even greater fixture pile up, counties bitch and moan if they have to play twice in seven days as it is.
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The trouble with an open draw , and groups with counties from different geographical regions , is cost . If you do anything other than based initially on geographical locations , costs soar and attendances are not guaranteed .
I went to league matches in the nineties with us as All -Ireland champions , Cork home match attendance was about a thousand , half of whom were Down supporters . Also saw the Dubs playing us in the league in Newcastle , the Dubs supporters I talked to said they could name every Dub supporter at the game , there were so few . Think the current system , flawed though it might be to some , is the most sensible arrangement we can have without throwing the baby out with the bath water . |
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rocket you should offer your services to the gaa.im sure the high ranking officials you are friendly with in the gaels club house will put you in touch with them.your concern will touch them im sure.
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Derry v uneasy, driftin like a barge
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Got matched at 1.4 just before the match for almost 2 grand, someone made a bubu, only got 40 of the lay.
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what a save that was!
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Decent game. Could of been a few goals. Small bet on Derry to net again @6/4 with Lads.
What was that market Goalhanger? |
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Match odds market, had my trade and Down getting the few early ones helped. Score either way so not bad for 20 seconds!!
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benny playing good but not too intrested in scoring sadly for over 1.5 bettors including myself!!
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Goals at wrong end!! Down No 9 got some fine scores, one in the first half the pick for me
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