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Some fascinating facts from a recently published article
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It’s easy just to back favourites and those with small minds no need to read further
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Puerto Rico is a shortie Moore is riding. Anyone for a Newmarket reject?The going is very soft at the moment at Longchamp. Diamond Necklace is his ride in the fillies equivalent.
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He’s hardly a Newmarket reject Impossible, just gone back to the place that he’s performed at at the highest level.
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statistics: The Poule d'Essai des Poulains Loves a Change
While it is difficult for a trainer and jockey to win this Group 1 race two years in a row, it is even rarer for a sire. Since Danehill (2002–2003), no sire has managed to do so. This is the challenge facing Puerto Rico, the bookmakers’ favorite and son of Wootton Bassett, just as it was for Henri Matisse, last year’s winner. Aidan O’Brien’s charge will also be making his season debut this coming Sunday, as will another highly rated contender, Rayif. Here, once again, the challenge is far from straightforward The bookmakers have selected their two favourites for the Poule d'Essai des Poulains (Gr. I), which will take place next Sunday on the 1,600 meters of the ParisLongchamp main track. These are the Irish Puerto Rico and the French Rayif. The two foals have already crossed paths in the Prix Jean-Luc Lagardère (Gr.I), won by the first named, and will have the distinction of making their comeback for this classic event. A forced choice for the Francis Graffard trained horse, who fell ill when he made his return in the Prix de Fontainebleau, less suffered for that of Aidan O'Brien whose program was to start in a group I in the spring. It could have been the 2,000 Guineas on Saturday, but it will finally be in Longchamp at the end of the week. Ballydoyle’s man knows how to handle this situation, he has presented several entrants in the Poule d'Essai, which he also won with St Mark’s Basilica in 2021, which had not run since his victory in the Dewhurst Stakes (Gr. I), seven months earlier. Siyouni’s son was leading the way at Modern Games (Charlie Appleby), which won in 2022 without having experienced any preparation race. With 2 cases in the 21st century, about 8% of success, it remains a feat to start his season victoriously in the Poule d'Essai, but if it remains unlikely, it is not impossible |
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Puerto Rico and the end of the curse?
It is amusing to note that Rayif, from Sea The Moon, a stallion who has only one group I winner in his offspring on the mile - Alpine Star in the 2020 Coronation Stakes - can make this mistrust an asset. Every year since 2011, the Poule d'Essai des Poulains has crowned a different stallion. This gives a chance to the protégé of the Aga Khan Studs, but does not plead in favor of Puerto Rico whose father, Wootton Bassett, is none other than the holder of the title (Henri Matisse)... If Puerto Rico were to win on Sunday, he would make his father the first stallion since Danehill in 2002 and 2003 (Landseer and Clodovil). What about the participants of the Jean-Luc Lagardère Prize? Since 2000, six winners of the Poule d'Essai des Poulains had previously passed through the Prix Jean-Luc Lagardère (Gr. I) at 2 years old and three of them have managed to pass two (Victor Ludorum, Karakontie, American Post). If we extend the study to all groups I, we see that experience at the highest level is logically an asset. 50% of the winners of the Poule had already participated in a group I, 27% had even won one. As for the form, it is also undeniably a factor (50% of winners remained on a win), but we are pushing a little open door by writing this... |
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On a roll of two, Aidan O'Brien has already done it
Like Jean-Claude Rouget and André Fabre, in the 21st century, Aidan O'Brien has already won the Poule d'Essai for two consecutive years (2006 and 2007). Will he become the first to “double double” ? Over the last 50 years, no coach has done it, even if one can consider that François Boutin, who won this group I without interruption between 1990 and 1993, established an even more remarkable performance. A kind of consecutive “double-dubbed”. Puerto Rico can write history With a 4% chance that a stallion will succeed one another or 3% that Aidan O'Brien will sign the "double-double", Puerto Rico theoretically has little hope of crossing the post as the winner on Sunday. And this perspective would be further removed if he did not inherit a place of choice in the stalls (between 1 and 5), like 62% of the victors of this century. Fortunately, sport does not bother with these historical considerations. With each race, the meter is reset and what has already happened may never be repeated again. For better or for worse. |
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There’s food for there especially regarding the draw but it’s not a huge field with only 13 runners. That said many of the fancied horses are drawn out wide or higher than is ideal.
The last horse to do the Fontenbleu Poulains double was Persian King in 2019 for Andre Fabre he was sent off Odds on having won the trial at 1/5. Fabre has won the French 2000 9 times, his last winner was : Victor Ludorum (2020) His two runners this year are Komorebi currently 7/2 drawn 9 And Prix La Force winner Segall 25/1 drawn 12 Rayif for the Aga drawn 1 wants decent ground and he worked better than Narrissa in their last gallop, which I’ve watched. Komorembi was led by Segall in a group of 4 or 5 and picked him up with apparent ease, watched that too. |
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Puerto Rico is 11/8 and Diamond Necklace is 'even' money. The former is far too short, and the latter may represent value, if she's fit!
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She’s drawn well in 3 impossible he isn’t drawn badly in 7 but both are relying on last years form and the trainers success this week at Chester and in last weeks Guineas here.
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Look up the form for : Sukanya it makes me want to oppose her.
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I've learnt not to back AOB's in France. It's financially prudent in the long run; Lordon is on Pierre Bonnard over 10f at Leopardstown. French Derby?
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Is there a selection in here?
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He’s done better recently there Impossible and it was an angle that I played lots early on when watching. He always harvested the end of year G1’s there at Saint Cloud and they counted as two of his successes each year, a little like him at Chester.
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Feel free to put yours up DD I’m not wanting to be a tipster or get slaps on the back from strangers, I opened a discussion where people can put up their selections and reasoning.
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Well no show from DD DunDrums despite giving nothing whilst giving it large
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And you’re welcome RP I’m sure your journos might touch on the Stallion factor in this for those interested
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After all Paul Keely made a hash of looking back at previous Guineas winners records after today
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has dellnobber tipped ennithing ot jussed woffling inane shít again?
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Put one up or hush up
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Those with entries for the 7f Paul De Moussac which is a trial I believe for the Jean Pratt
KHOVIKHOV Rayif GOOD BYE MANU Elastic NIGHTTIME Why is it of significance? Because the rest are seen as Jockey Club candidates and the French 2000 is a good trial for that. Mijas isn’t entered for either so the Spanish trainer who has a good group of horses this year sees him as an out and out miler. Dorset is entered for the Grand Prix De Paris over 1m 4F |
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In the French 1000 Guineas
Two fillies are entered for the Paul De Moussac which BAKLAWA Showna (Prix Imprudence winner @64/1 ahead of Fabre’s 1000 guineas flop) Three fillies are entered for the consolation Guineas the Prix Sandringham held on Jockey Club Day Narrisa FASHION CITY Zanthos The rest have the Prix Diana (French Oaks) as their next option. |
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Two who will be popular are :
The unbeaten WOOTTON CENTURION whose has the widest draw. I’m not sure if he’s wearing cheek pieces for the first time? He also has the handicap of AURELIEN LEMAITRE in the saddle but he can’t get blocked in on the inside as he normally does from that draw! Jockey quote : “He won more surely than it seems for his return and has not made unnecessary efforts so far.” He had a a bit of a battle but showed good fighting spirit when headed to get back up. In the Fillies race the French will be all over Narrisa but also THE LAST DANCE for Yan Lerner she was 20/1 yesterday and ducked in here only 12/1 is generally 14/1 now and I expect her to shorten further. |
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The colt is wearing what they call in France Australian Blinkers first time, it’s not declared 1st time on the RP card.
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For anyone who doesn't want racing's equivalent of War And Peace from someone who has no opinions of their own.
If the O'Brien favourites reproduce then they are going to be very hard to beat, but both are relatively short, and how many people actually know whether we are going to see a version of Precise, or Gstaad turn up? True Love was running off a prep, which these two are not. So if putting up selections, it would be the two favourites, but I have no intention of backing them, and also no intention of looking at outsiders, in the hope the favourites will bomb. So for obvious reasons no bet races. |
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Wow the attitude on you!
Up yourself slightly! Your summery a lot like sitting in the fence to me. |
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Favs might win if they show their true form! Thats some statement!
If you don’t like how I do things then p.Off & set up your own thread ya wanna be tipster! |
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Didn't all of AOB's Chester winners win on their first run back at Chester this week?
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Yes and she’s gone into odds on now 5/1 the field behind her with firms paying 4 places.
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I like baklawa after a meal particularly borma with a cup of tea with milk. The pistachios wrapped in light pastry with rose water and a sugary syrup, and then baked. It's sweet but not sickly sweet. And, it's very yummy.
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luckily I’ve had lunch so you’re not making me hungry but I take your word for it! |
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Both of AOB’s have good draws and further wins today will see them fancied even more.
I made a comment on the 2000 Guineas thread that people should watch back Sean Levy’s interview after he won on PRico in the Chanmpagne stakes on At The Races. He only beat Oxagon there 1L and it was the start of his win streak, Levy made the point of saying that his horse had more experience than the rest so he made it straight forwards and went to the front. The colt then made hay and I feel that it was because he was taking on less battle hardened horses, the opposition tomorrow is stiffer than what he faced in his last race the G1 at Saint Cloud. The trouble is his rivals all have bad draws out wide with the exception of Rayif who doesn’t want it soft and missed his prep. I can’t be stated how important the low draw is at Longchamp as you’re almost straight into a turn. |
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In all the "excitement" I've had only two bets so far. One winner and one loser ie PSG (BM) and Gstaad (2000G). The latter was hedged.
I might have a bet tomorrow on Pierre Bonnard (subject to market indicator) at Leopardstown tomorrow. However, I'll leave the French races alone. My next bets will probably be Epsom eg Jan Brueghel and Constitution River esp if Benvenuto Cellini is an absentee. |
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Good luck Impossible you’re not going to do the AOB treb?! It’s not a race I’d like to play in, did you notice that they’ve put first time cheek pieces on Endorsement?
He’s going mad for applying those! Don’t stand still there or you could get a pair added! The racing manager for the Aga said this and it’s what we saw last year at Epsom so expect Jan to test his stamina over this trip at this track, if it rained double up your stake! Nemone Routh. He wanted to go and was very flexible. His rider, Jérémy Lobel, was delighted. He has to go to the Coronation Cup. It shouldn’t be too heavy, because the course is demanding with a climb to finish. It lasts well 2,400 meters, but in very soft ground and with a climb, it’s not the same anymore... By then, I hope it should be okay.” |
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I hope AOB runs a pacesetter in the Coronation Cup. Any shenanigan like the King George where Jan made the running I might even consider suing AOB for a financial loss, citing incredulity and stupidity as a professional horse trainer.
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He’ll say the Lads thought it best he run that way (being ridden like he’s part of posse trying to escape the law in the Wild West!) passing the buck! |
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A few shekels for Jan in the French big race in Oct. I can see AOB fielding another battalion just as he did when Found won with her stablemates Highland Reel and Order Of St George riding shotgun. The year the owner of Postponed gifted Coolmore the race.
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has dellnobber tipped ennithing ot jussed woffling inane shít again?
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Don’t do it again Impossible
 Ringo I’ve backed in both races! |
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Ringo this is what happened last time I TIPPED
 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AkjumBgoSD8&list=RDAkjumBgoSD8&start_radio=1 |