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Some fascinating facts from a recently published article
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It’s easy just to back favourites and those with small minds no need to read further 
Puerto Rico is a shortie Moore is riding. Anyone for a Newmarket reject?The going is very soft at the moment at Longchamp. Diamond Necklace is his ride in the fillies equivalent.
He’s hardly a Newmarket reject Impossible, just gone back to the place that he’s performed at at the highest level.
statistics: The Poule d'Essai des Poulains Loves a Change
While it is difficult for a trainer and jockey to win this Group 1 race two years in a row, it is even rarer for a sire. Since Danehill (2002–2003), no sire has managed to do so. This is the challenge facing Puerto Rico, the bookmakers’ favorite and son of Wootton Bassett, just as it was for Henri Matisse, last year’s winner. Aidan O’Brien’s charge will also be making his season debut this coming Sunday, as will another highly rated contender, Rayif. Here, once again, the challenge is far from straightforward
The bookmakers have selected their two favourites for the Poule d'Essai des Poulains (Gr. I), which will take place next Sunday on the 1,600 meters of the ParisLongchamp main track. These are the Irish Puerto Rico and the French Rayif.
The two foals have already crossed paths in the Prix Jean-Luc Lagardère (Gr.I), won by the first named, and will have the distinction of making their comeback for this classic event. A forced choice for the Francis Graffard trained horse, who fell ill when he made his return in the Prix de Fontainebleau, less suffered for that of Aidan O'Brien whose program was to start in a group I in the spring. It could have been the 2,000 Guineas on Saturday, but it will finally be in Longchamp at the end of the week. Ballydoyle’s man knows how to handle this situation, he has presented several entrants in the Poule d'Essai, which he also won with St Mark’s Basilica in 2021, which had not run since his victory in the Dewhurst Stakes (Gr. I), seven months earlier. Siyouni’s son was leading the way at Modern Games (Charlie Appleby), which won in 2022 without having experienced any preparation race. With 2 cases in the 21st century, about 8% of success, it remains a feat to start his season victoriously in the Poule d'Essai, but if it remains unlikely, it is not impossible
While it is difficult for a trainer and jockey to win this Group 1 race two years in a row, it is even rarer for a sire. Since Danehill (2002–2003), no sire has managed to do so. This is the challenge facing Puerto Rico, the bookmakers’ favorite and son of Wootton Bassett, just as it was for Henri Matisse, last year’s winner. Aidan O’Brien’s charge will also be making his season debut this coming Sunday, as will another highly rated contender, Rayif. Here, once again, the challenge is far from straightforward
The bookmakers have selected their two favourites for the Poule d'Essai des Poulains (Gr. I), which will take place next Sunday on the 1,600 meters of the ParisLongchamp main track. These are the Irish Puerto Rico and the French Rayif.
The two foals have already crossed paths in the Prix Jean-Luc Lagardère (Gr.I), won by the first named, and will have the distinction of making their comeback for this classic event. A forced choice for the Francis Graffard trained horse, who fell ill when he made his return in the Prix de Fontainebleau, less suffered for that of Aidan O'Brien whose program was to start in a group I in the spring. It could have been the 2,000 Guineas on Saturday, but it will finally be in Longchamp at the end of the week. Ballydoyle’s man knows how to handle this situation, he has presented several entrants in the Poule d'Essai, which he also won with St Mark’s Basilica in 2021, which had not run since his victory in the Dewhurst Stakes (Gr. I), seven months earlier. Siyouni’s son was leading the way at Modern Games (Charlie Appleby), which won in 2022 without having experienced any preparation race. With 2 cases in the 21st century, about 8% of success, it remains a feat to start his season victoriously in the Poule d'Essai, but if it remains unlikely, it is not impossible
Puerto Rico and the end of the curse?
It is amusing to note that Rayif, from Sea The Moon, a stallion who has only one group I winner in his offspring on the mile - Alpine Star in the 2020 Coronation Stakes - can make this mistrust an asset. Every year since 2011, the Poule d'Essai des Poulains has crowned a different stallion. This gives a chance to the protégé of the Aga Khan Studs, but does not plead in favor of Puerto Rico whose father, Wootton Bassett, is none other than the holder of the title (Henri Matisse)... If Puerto Rico were to win on Sunday, he would make his father the first stallion since Danehill in 2002 and 2003 (Landseer and Clodovil).
What about the participants of the Jean-Luc Lagardère Prize?
Since 2000, six winners of the Poule d'Essai des Poulains had previously passed through the Prix Jean-Luc Lagardère (Gr. I) at 2 years old and three of them have managed to pass two (Victor Ludorum, Karakontie, American Post). If we extend the study to all groups I, we see that experience at the highest level is logically an asset. 50% of the winners of the Poule had already participated in a group I, 27% had even won one. As for the form, it is also undeniably a factor (50% of winners remained on a win), but we are pushing a little open door by writing this...
It is amusing to note that Rayif, from Sea The Moon, a stallion who has only one group I winner in his offspring on the mile - Alpine Star in the 2020 Coronation Stakes - can make this mistrust an asset. Every year since 2011, the Poule d'Essai des Poulains has crowned a different stallion. This gives a chance to the protégé of the Aga Khan Studs, but does not plead in favor of Puerto Rico whose father, Wootton Bassett, is none other than the holder of the title (Henri Matisse)... If Puerto Rico were to win on Sunday, he would make his father the first stallion since Danehill in 2002 and 2003 (Landseer and Clodovil).
What about the participants of the Jean-Luc Lagardère Prize?
Since 2000, six winners of the Poule d'Essai des Poulains had previously passed through the Prix Jean-Luc Lagardère (Gr. I) at 2 years old and three of them have managed to pass two (Victor Ludorum, Karakontie, American Post). If we extend the study to all groups I, we see that experience at the highest level is logically an asset. 50% of the winners of the Poule had already participated in a group I, 27% had even won one. As for the form, it is also undeniably a factor (50% of winners remained on a win), but we are pushing a little open door by writing this...
On a roll of two, Aidan O'Brien has already done it
Like Jean-Claude Rouget and André Fabre, in the 21st century, Aidan O'Brien has already won the Poule d'Essai for two consecutive years (2006 and 2007). Will he become the first to “double double” ? Over the last 50 years, no coach has done it, even if one can consider that François Boutin, who won this group I without interruption between 1990 and 1993, established an even more remarkable performance. A kind of consecutive “double-dubbed”.
Puerto Rico can write history
With a 4% chance that a stallion will succeed one another or 3% that Aidan O'Brien will sign the "double-double", Puerto Rico theoretically has little hope of crossing the post as the winner on Sunday. And this perspective would be further removed if he did not inherit a place of choice in the stalls (between 1 and 5), like 62% of the victors of this century.
Fortunately, sport does not bother with these historical considerations. With each race, the meter is reset and what has already happened may never be repeated again. For better or for worse.
Like Jean-Claude Rouget and André Fabre, in the 21st century, Aidan O'Brien has already won the Poule d'Essai for two consecutive years (2006 and 2007). Will he become the first to “double double” ? Over the last 50 years, no coach has done it, even if one can consider that François Boutin, who won this group I without interruption between 1990 and 1993, established an even more remarkable performance. A kind of consecutive “double-dubbed”.
Puerto Rico can write history
With a 4% chance that a stallion will succeed one another or 3% that Aidan O'Brien will sign the "double-double", Puerto Rico theoretically has little hope of crossing the post as the winner on Sunday. And this perspective would be further removed if he did not inherit a place of choice in the stalls (between 1 and 5), like 62% of the victors of this century.
Fortunately, sport does not bother with these historical considerations. With each race, the meter is reset and what has already happened may never be repeated again. For better or for worse.
There’s food for there especially regarding the draw but it’s not a huge field with only 13 runners. That said many of the fancied horses are drawn out wide or higher than is ideal.
The last horse to do the Fontenbleu Poulains double was Persian King in 2019 for Andre Fabre he was sent off Odds on having won the trial at 1/5.
Fabre has won the French 2000 9 times, his last winner was :
Victor Ludorum (2020)
His two runners this year are Komorebi currently 7/2 drawn 9
And Prix La Force winner Segall 25/1 drawn 12
Rayif for the Aga drawn 1 wants decent ground and he worked better than Narrissa in their last gallop, which I’ve watched.
Komorembi was led by Segall in a group of 4 or 5 and picked him up with apparent ease, watched that too.
The last horse to do the Fontenbleu Poulains double was Persian King in 2019 for Andre Fabre he was sent off Odds on having won the trial at 1/5.
Fabre has won the French 2000 9 times, his last winner was :
Victor Ludorum (2020)
His two runners this year are Komorebi currently 7/2 drawn 9
And Prix La Force winner Segall 25/1 drawn 12
Rayif for the Aga drawn 1 wants decent ground and he worked better than Narrissa in their last gallop, which I’ve watched.
Komorembi was led by Segall in a group of 4 or 5 and picked him up with apparent ease, watched that too.
Puerto Rico is 11/8 and Diamond Necklace is 'even' money. The former is far too short, and the latter may represent value, if she's fit!
She’s drawn well in 3 impossible he isn’t drawn badly in 7 but both are relying on last years form and the trainers success this week at Chester and in last weeks Guineas here.
Look up the form for : Sukanya it makes me want to oppose her.
I've learnt not to back AOB's in France. It's financially prudent in the long run; Lordon is on Pierre Bonnard over 10f at Leopardstown. French Derby?
He’s done better recently there Impossible and it was an angle that I played lots early on when watching. He always harvested the end of year G1’s there at Saint Cloud and they counted as two of his successes each year, a little like him at Chester.
Feel free to put yours up DD I’m not wanting to be a tipster or get slaps on the back from strangers, I opened a discussion where people can put up their selections and reasoning.
Well no show from DD DunDrums despite giving nothing whilst giving it large 
And you’re welcome RP I’m sure your journos might touch on the Stallion factor in this for those interested
After all Paul Keely made a hash of looking back at previous Guineas winners records after today 
has dellnobber tipped ennithing ot jussed woffling inane shít again?
Those with entries for the 7f Paul De Moussac which is a trial I believe for the Jean Pratt
KHOVIKHOV
Rayif
GOOD BYE MANU
Elastic
NIGHTTIME
Why is it of significance? Because the rest are seen as Jockey Club candidates and the French 2000 is a good trial for that.
Mijas isn’t entered for either so the Spanish trainer who has a good group of horses this year sees him as an out and out miler.
Dorset is entered for the Grand Prix De Paris over 1m 4F
KHOVIKHOV
Rayif
GOOD BYE MANU
Elastic
NIGHTTIME
Why is it of significance? Because the rest are seen as Jockey Club candidates and the French 2000 is a good trial for that.
Mijas isn’t entered for either so the Spanish trainer who has a good group of horses this year sees him as an out and out miler.
Dorset is entered for the Grand Prix De Paris over 1m 4F
In the French 1000 Guineas
Two fillies are entered for the Paul De Moussac which
BAKLAWA
Showna (Prix Imprudence winner @64/1 ahead of Fabre’s 1000 guineas flop)
Three fillies are entered for the consolation Guineas the Prix Sandringham held on Jockey Club Day
Narrisa
FASHION CITY
Zanthos
The rest have the Prix Diana (French Oaks) as their next option.
Two fillies are entered for the Paul De Moussac which
BAKLAWA
Showna (Prix Imprudence winner @64/1 ahead of Fabre’s 1000 guineas flop)
Three fillies are entered for the consolation Guineas the Prix Sandringham held on Jockey Club Day
Narrisa
FASHION CITY
Zanthos
The rest have the Prix Diana (French Oaks) as their next option.
Two who will be popular are :
The unbeaten WOOTTON CENTURION whose has the widest draw. I’m not sure if he’s wearing cheek pieces for the first time? He also has the handicap of AURELIEN LEMAITRE in the saddle but he can’t get blocked in on the inside as he normally does from that draw!
Jockey quote :
“He won more surely than it seems for his return and has not made unnecessary efforts so far.”
He had a a bit of a battle but showed good fighting spirit when headed to get back up.
In the Fillies race the French will be all over Narrisa but also THE LAST DANCE for Yan Lerner she was 20/1 yesterday and ducked in here only 12/1 is generally 14/1 now and I expect her to shorten further.
The unbeaten WOOTTON CENTURION whose has the widest draw. I’m not sure if he’s wearing cheek pieces for the first time? He also has the handicap of AURELIEN LEMAITRE in the saddle but he can’t get blocked in on the inside as he normally does from that draw!
Jockey quote :
“He won more surely than it seems for his return and has not made unnecessary efforts so far.”
He had a a bit of a battle but showed good fighting spirit when headed to get back up.
In the Fillies race the French will be all over Narrisa but also THE LAST DANCE for Yan Lerner she was 20/1 yesterday and ducked in here only 12/1 is generally 14/1 now and I expect her to shorten further.
The colt is wearing what they call in France Australian Blinkers first time, it’s not declared 1st time on the RP card.
For anyone who doesn't want racing's equivalent of War And Peace from someone who has no opinions of their own.
If the O'Brien favourites reproduce then they are going to be very hard to beat, but both are relatively short, and how many people actually know whether we are going to see a version of Precise, or Gstaad turn up? True Love was running off a prep, which these two are not. So if putting up selections, it would be the two favourites, but I have no intention of backing them, and also no intention of looking at outsiders, in the hope the favourites will bomb. So for obvious reasons no bet races.
If the O'Brien favourites reproduce then they are going to be very hard to beat, but both are relatively short, and how many people actually know whether we are going to see a version of Precise, or Gstaad turn up? True Love was running off a prep, which these two are not. So if putting up selections, it would be the two favourites, but I have no intention of backing them, and also no intention of looking at outsiders, in the hope the favourites will bomb. So for obvious reasons no bet races.
Wow the attitude on you!
Up yourself slightly!
Your summery a lot like sitting in the fence to me.
Up yourself slightly!
Your summery a lot like sitting in the fence to me.
Favs might win if they show their true form! Thats some statement!
If you don’t like how I do things then p.Off & set up your own thread ya wanna be tipster!
If you don’t like how I do things then p.Off & set up your own thread ya wanna be tipster!
Didn't all of AOB's Chester winners win on their first run back at Chester this week?
Yes and she’s gone into odds on now 5/1 the field behind her with firms paying 4 places.
I like baklawa after a meal particularly borma with a cup of tea with milk. The pistachios wrapped in light pastry with rose water and a sugary syrup, and then baked. It's sweet but not sickly sweet. And, it's very yummy.
luckily I’ve had lunch so you’re not making me hungry but I take your word for it!
Both of AOB’s have good draws and further wins today will see them fancied even more.
I made a comment on the 2000 Guineas thread that people should watch back Sean Levy’s interview after he won on PRico in the Chanmpagne stakes on At The Races.
He only beat Oxagon there 1L and it was the start of his win streak, Levy made the point of saying that his horse had more experience than the rest so he made it straight forwards and went to the front.
The colt then made hay and I feel that it was because he was taking on less battle hardened horses, the opposition tomorrow is stiffer than what he faced in his last race the G1 at Saint Cloud. The trouble is his rivals all have bad draws out wide with the exception of Rayif who doesn’t want it soft and missed his prep.
I can’t be stated how important the low draw is at Longchamp as you’re almost straight into a turn.
I made a comment on the 2000 Guineas thread that people should watch back Sean Levy’s interview after he won on PRico in the Chanmpagne stakes on At The Races.
He only beat Oxagon there 1L and it was the start of his win streak, Levy made the point of saying that his horse had more experience than the rest so he made it straight forwards and went to the front.
The colt then made hay and I feel that it was because he was taking on less battle hardened horses, the opposition tomorrow is stiffer than what he faced in his last race the G1 at Saint Cloud. The trouble is his rivals all have bad draws out wide with the exception of Rayif who doesn’t want it soft and missed his prep.
I can’t be stated how important the low draw is at Longchamp as you’re almost straight into a turn.
In all the "excitement" I've had only two bets so far. One winner and one loser ie PSG (BM) and Gstaad (2000G). The latter was hedged.
I might have a bet tomorrow on Pierre Bonnard (subject to market indicator) at Leopardstown tomorrow. However, I'll leave the French races alone. My next bets will probably be Epsom eg Jan Brueghel and Constitution River esp if Benvenuto Cellini is an absentee.
I might have a bet tomorrow on Pierre Bonnard (subject to market indicator) at Leopardstown tomorrow. However, I'll leave the French races alone. My next bets will probably be Epsom eg Jan Brueghel and Constitution River esp if Benvenuto Cellini is an absentee.
Good luck Impossible you’re not going to do the AOB treb?! It’s not a race I’d like to play in, did you notice that they’ve put first time cheek pieces on Endorsement?
He’s going mad for applying those! Don’t stand still there or you could get a pair added!
The racing manager for the Aga said this and it’s what we saw last year at Epsom so expect Jan to test his stamina over this trip at this track, if it rained double up your stake!
Nemone Routh. He wanted to go and was very flexible. His rider, Jérémy Lobel, was delighted. He has to go to the Coronation Cup. It shouldn’t be too heavy, because the course is demanding with a climb to finish. It lasts well 2,400 meters, but in very soft ground and with a climb, it’s not the same anymore... By then, I hope it should be okay.”
He’s going mad for applying those! Don’t stand still there or you could get a pair added!
The racing manager for the Aga said this and it’s what we saw last year at Epsom so expect Jan to test his stamina over this trip at this track, if it rained double up your stake!
Nemone Routh. He wanted to go and was very flexible. His rider, Jérémy Lobel, was delighted. He has to go to the Coronation Cup. It shouldn’t be too heavy, because the course is demanding with a climb to finish. It lasts well 2,400 meters, but in very soft ground and with a climb, it’s not the same anymore... By then, I hope it should be okay.”
I hope AOB runs a pacesetter in the Coronation Cup. Any shenanigan like the King George where Jan made the running I might even consider suing AOB for a financial loss, citing incredulity and stupidity as a professional horse trainer.
He’ll say the Lads thought it best he run that way (being ridden like he’s part of posse trying to escape the law in the Wild West!) passing the buck!
A few shekels for Jan in the French big race in Oct. I can see AOB fielding another battalion just as he did when Found won with her stablemates Highland Reel and Order Of St George riding shotgun. The year the owner of Postponed gifted Coolmore the race.
has dellnobber tipped ennithing ot jussed woffling inane shít again?
Don’t do it again Impossible 
Ringo I’ve backed in both races!
Ringo I’ve backed in both races!
Ringo this is what happened last time I TIPPED 
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AkjumBgoSD8&list=RDAkjumBgoSD8&start_radio=1
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AkjumBgoSD8&list=RDAkjumBgoSD8&start_radio=1
A lack of an outing put paid to Puerto Rico. He came to challenge, then regressed. Hankelow ran very well to be 2nd. But, Ravif was a deserved winner. I'm very glad for Graffard and Princess Zahra. It was well-deserved!
Delashay 08 May 26 17:54
have decided to have a decent size bet for me on Puerto Rico. GL lads.
have decided to have a decent size bet for me on Puerto Rico. GL lads.
Nice bit of attempted manipulation Ringo, no bet this no post where I wrote that!
Maybe you played the fav?
Impossible Rayif was making his comeback too.
Maybe you played the fav?
Impossible Rayif was making his comeback too.
Delashay • April 17, 2026 9:56 AM BST
He’s a May foul and that would be rare for one that late to win, but he does look well built, a different type to Avicenna who looked a lot lighter yesterday.
I always got the vibe that thy thought that Rayif was their best of the two, he he looked good when beating Andab in the Boutin.
He missed his comeback in the Fontenbleu because he was outworked (or so they say) by Narissa who was second in the Grotte.
Delashay • April 17, 2026 11:10 AM BST
It’s worth remembering the improvement that Field Of Gold made from 2 to 3 having been beaten like Rayif in the Lagadere.
They thought the ground wasn’t right for him that day as it wasn’t for Gosden’s as a 2 yr old.
- - - - - - -
I did legitimately post these remarks on my 2000 Guineas thread however and anyone that knows me knows I’m not a Ballydoyle fanboy to have gone in on PRico as you’ve made out!
He’s a May foul and that would be rare for one that late to win, but he does look well built, a different type to Avicenna who looked a lot lighter yesterday.
I always got the vibe that thy thought that Rayif was their best of the two, he he looked good when beating Andab in the Boutin.
He missed his comeback in the Fontenbleu because he was outworked (or so they say) by Narissa who was second in the Grotte.
Delashay • April 17, 2026 11:10 AM BST
It’s worth remembering the improvement that Field Of Gold made from 2 to 3 having been beaten like Rayif in the Lagadere.
They thought the ground wasn’t right for him that day as it wasn’t for Gosden’s as a 2 yr old.
- - - - - - -
I did legitimately post these remarks on my 2000 Guineas thread however and anyone that knows me knows I’m not a Ballydoyle fanboy to have gone in on PRico as you’ve made out!
Hope you decided not to back that dodgy French Painter after all today Impossible.
Delbert doesn't bet but he does love an aftertime from his relentless C&P 's
I had a bet starting in the first and the 18/1 Last Dance EW was ok against the odds on shot.
No, I did not. I did not play today at all. I'd possibly have backed Diamond Necklace but 1st time out and skinny price I decided to leave it to AOB and the bookies.
I do not think PB is as good as AOB has alluded to. PB might still go to Epsom but not as Moore's 1st pick. If Constitution River goes too (terribly unlikely) he'd derail Benvenuto Cellini as fav esp if Moore picks him.
I do not think PB is as good as AOB has alluded to. PB might still go to Epsom but not as Moore's 1st pick. If Constitution River goes too (terribly unlikely) he'd derail Benvenuto Cellini as fav esp if Moore picks him.
Good job Impossible, I’m hopeful that Constitution will go, the current fav was made fav in response to Bonnard flopping first time out, it’s solidified with his win at Chester but there was only one horse for me there.
Hawk Mountain beat Graffards Jockey Club horse last time and PRico may even show up there yet. So I’m hoping!
Hawk Mountain beat Graffards Jockey Club horse last time and PRico may even show up there yet. So I’m hoping!
Unless PB was still stuffy today he'd not quicken to go past Endorsement. He'd also be coming to the end of his stamina limitation. Anyway, I do not think the Epsom winner will come from Leopardstown.
Benvenuto Cellini needed the distance to go clear at Chester; Constitution River could quicken, but not has not raced beyond 10f.
Benvenuto Cellini needed the distance to go clear at Chester; Constitution River could quicken, but not has not raced beyond 10f.
Delashay 10 May 26 18:33
had more than i should have on rico,was chasing earlier losses,bit silly i realise now.
had more than i should have on rico,was chasing earlier losses,bit silly i realise now.
It’s the usual guessing game Impossible but I can pass up on not backing the Derby winner at his price and I don’t like that he headed the market by default originally with the failure of another.
The Last Dance
@ 18/1
Each Way
Placed
Each Way: 1/5 Odds, 4 Places
Placed
(Each Way) Double @ 2 Lines
Komorebi | The Last Dance
A touch of seconditus!
@ 18/1
Each Way
Placed
Each Way: 1/5 Odds, 4 Places
Placed
(Each Way) Double @ 2 Lines
Komorebi | The Last Dance
A touch of seconditus!
I understand, but Benvenuto Cellini (BC) was fav against Hawk Mountain (my original fancy) in the Futurity at Doncaster on unsuitable ground. The betting market is at the mercy of AOB. I believe unless Constitution River is Epsom bound BC will be fav with Moore the jockey.
Agree with that as I doubt the Dante will play a major role with his plans, I saw Muscat did a piece (although I didn’t read it) saying he can see them taking the Dee Stakes winner to Epsom.
With the news that AOB is suggesting that Constitution River will go to Chantilly I looked back at the record of past Dee Stakes winners and where they ran next.
This year there is no Camelot or Rodin, or Australia who is the outright leading light for the Derby ahead of the winner.
2005 Gypsy King Kieren Fallon 2:16.47 - 5th @ 7/2 behind Motivator, Dubawi 3rd!
2007 Admiralofthefleet Michael Kinane 2:09.82 - 10th @ 14/1 to Authorized
2012 Astrology Joseph O'Brien 2:21.57 - 3rd to Camelot @ 13/2
2013 Magician Ryan Moore 2:12.96 -won the Irish 2000 Guineas @ 10/3 then last in SJP @ DawnAp
2014 Kingfisher Joseph O'Brien Aidan O'Brien 2:20.49 - 10th @ 50/1
2017 Cliffs of Moher Ryan Moore Aidan O'Brien 2:10.85 - 2nd @ 5/1 to 40/1 Wings Of Eagles
2018 Rostropovich Ryan Moore Aidan O'Brien 2:12.33 - 9th to Study of Man @13/2 PDJC, then 2nd 1m4f Ascot
2019 Circus Maximus Ryan Moore Aidan O'Brien 2:16.51 - 6th @ 10/1 Antony Van **** 13/2
no race 2020 [c]
2022 Star of India Ryan Moore Aidan O'Brien 2:12.25 - 13th @ 16/1 to Desert Crown
2023 San Antonio Ryan Moore Aidan O'Brien 2:19.90 - 10th @ 18/1 to Augusta Rodin
2024 Capulet Ryan Moore Aidan O'Brien 2:10.67 - never ran again
2025 Mount Kilimanjaro Ryan Moore Aidan O'Brien 2:12.89 - next ran in the Great Voltigeur
2026 Constitution River Ryan Moore Aidan O'Brien 2:06.54 - ???
[b]In bold are the winners of the Dee Stakes who went on to run at Ascot. Only ONE went to the PDJC[/b]
This year there is no Camelot or Rodin, or Australia who is the outright leading light for the Derby ahead of the winner.
2005 Gypsy King Kieren Fallon 2:16.47 - 5th @ 7/2 behind Motivator, Dubawi 3rd!
2007 Admiralofthefleet Michael Kinane 2:09.82 - 10th @ 14/1 to Authorized
2012 Astrology Joseph O'Brien 2:21.57 - 3rd to Camelot @ 13/2
2013 Magician Ryan Moore 2:12.96 -won the Irish 2000 Guineas @ 10/3 then last in SJP @ DawnAp
2014 Kingfisher Joseph O'Brien Aidan O'Brien 2:20.49 - 10th @ 50/1
2017 Cliffs of Moher Ryan Moore Aidan O'Brien 2:10.85 - 2nd @ 5/1 to 40/1 Wings Of Eagles
2018 Rostropovich Ryan Moore Aidan O'Brien 2:12.33 - 9th to Study of Man @13/2 PDJC, then 2nd 1m4f Ascot
2019 Circus Maximus Ryan Moore Aidan O'Brien 2:16.51 - 6th @ 10/1 Antony Van **** 13/2
no race 2020 [c]
2022 Star of India Ryan Moore Aidan O'Brien 2:12.25 - 13th @ 16/1 to Desert Crown
2023 San Antonio Ryan Moore Aidan O'Brien 2:19.90 - 10th @ 18/1 to Augusta Rodin
2024 Capulet Ryan Moore Aidan O'Brien 2:10.67 - never ran again
2025 Mount Kilimanjaro Ryan Moore Aidan O'Brien 2:12.89 - next ran in the Great Voltigeur
2026 Constitution River Ryan Moore Aidan O'Brien 2:06.54 - ???
[b]In bold are the winners of the Dee Stakes who went on to run at Ascot. Only ONE went to the PDJC[/b]
In bold are the winners of the Dee Stakes who went on to run at Epsom. Only ONE went to the PDJC
And excuse me for a C&P to the temperamental types here but listen :
Hopefully Lambourn and Jan Brueghel will be okay and come out of their races last week well – and hopefully Calandagan comes," said O'Brien. "That'll make a proper race and it'll be exciting for everyone to see what's going to happen. That's what we want, we want all the big horses to turn up on those big days. Then everyone can have an opinion.
"Chester was perfect for both. We wanted a sharp, hard pace round there and we were very happy….”
Those two quoted in the post article earlier are going to Epsom, so it seems as though the trial at Chester and maybe more importantly the distance between races suits.
The caveat is that the PDJC comes before the Derby this year @ Chantilly on 31st May, Epsom 6th June so in that sense Constitution has had an early prep and could do what only one winner of the Dee Stsles has done before.
Would I be shocked to see him at Epsom after all? Given from the past NO.
Hopefully Lambourn and Jan Brueghel will be okay and come out of their races last week well – and hopefully Calandagan comes," said O'Brien. "That'll make a proper race and it'll be exciting for everyone to see what's going to happen. That's what we want, we want all the big horses to turn up on those big days. Then everyone can have an opinion.
"Chester was perfect for both. We wanted a sharp, hard pace round there and we were very happy….”
Those two quoted in the post article earlier are going to Epsom, so it seems as though the trial at Chester and maybe more importantly the distance between races suits.
The caveat is that the PDJC comes before the Derby this year @ Chantilly on 31st May, Epsom 6th June so in that sense Constitution has had an early prep and could do what only one winner of the Dee Stsles has done before.
Would I be shocked to see him at Epsom after all? Given from the past NO.
The year that Rostropovich went to the PDJC 2018 AOB was represented by Saxon Warrior 4/5f @Epsom and the Chantilly race came the day after.
The gravy-trainers at the Racing Post are not only giving multiple different selections at races, they've begun to offer 'lay' bets too. The latest being Bow Echo for the SJP. One opined that he was a good thing, but given no value attached (1/1 then) he'd be opposing him.
Have they not heard of the saying a bird in hand is worth two in the bush? I'd back him on the day (and probably collect) than to lay him (and probably lose). I think these racing paper journos would be ostracised or condemned for being irresponsible and bookie-talking in the days when bookies actually accepted bets.
Have they not heard of the saying a bird in hand is worth two in the bush? I'd back him on the day (and probably collect) than to lay him (and probably lose). I think these racing paper journos would be ostracised or condemned for being irresponsible and bookie-talking in the days when bookies actually accepted bets.
Yeah they talk a lot for them Impossible, I’m not into listening to them much, one tipped Dorset for the colts Guineas yesterday which I found shocking!
This year AOB has ran colts in the key French trials the Guiche and PRIX DE SURESNES, this isn’t something that he usually does.
Chinese Whisper was the last one that I could see who did back in 2007.
Why’d he start running colts in them this year and using his Epsom trial tack for one headed to France?
It’s not like he’s sent bad horses to get a line with either as G1 winner Hawk Mountain ran and won one.
His so called Derby dark horse Montreal was narrowly beaten in the other.
Chinese Whisper was the last one that I could see who did back in 2007.
Why’d he start running colts in them this year and using his Epsom trial tack for one headed to France?
It’s not like he’s sent bad horses to get a line with either as G1 winner Hawk Mountain ran and won one.
His so called Derby dark horse Montreal was narrowly beaten in the other.
Dates of the Derby trials:
Prix de Suresnes Chantilly 1m 2F Listed - Montreal 2nd 28th April
Prix de Guiche (Group 3) 1M 1f - Hawk Mountain 1st 4th May
Chester Vase Stakes (Group 3) 1m 4f Benvenuto Cellini 1st 6th May
Dee Stakes (Listed Race) 1m 2 1/4f Constitution River 1st 7th May
The Jockey Club comes earlier this year so it’s no surprise that AOB has done something very different and ran his colts in 2 KEY trials for the races.
It’s not his usual way of operating by sending his horse to the French trials, but as both colts ran well and coped with the track I don’t see why Constitution shows here?
Add to the fact the another key race looks short on Jockey Club contenders and has a great record for them, the French 2000 Guineas then it looks even more inevitable that they have ran their trials for their perspective Derbies.
I’m not taking yet another dummy of the Jockey Club even really coming into contention and believe Moore rides at Epsom and that he goes off fav, with targets such as the Eclipse/International open to him later down the line.
He got in preps for those for France early and we know Chester is spaced perfectly for Epsom and both sets of runners now have time between races to be built up to fever pitch.
Add in this quote from yesterday :
"Constitution River went to Chester as we knew he could be an Epsom or a French Derby horse," he explained. "We were happy that it was a mile and a quarter, in case he was going to go to France. The only thing is that if he is going to France, he's only gone left-handed. But we felt he looked very different going through all his work and looked very good last year. We were hoping and expecting to see that at Chester.”
Hawk Mountain a group 1 winner has gone right handed at Chantilly and so has Montreal.
There are betters of which I’ve been accused of not being time and again, that’s because I’m a gambler and I’ve taken the gamble that all of the above shows that he does run at Epsom and I’ve backed him.
If he’s a non runner so be it, people talk about value and the value lay in his odds being pushed out because of the doubt sown by the trainers words yesterday and we’ve heard that at least twice already this year, with intended runners not showing up for the first Classic.
There’s a saying , “You snooze, you lose.”
I missed out with Gasstad running into one primed in the Guineas, but was on @ double figures when pushed EW, whilst not believing the story and I’m gambling again knowing that any losses on a non runner can be recouped later down the line.
Prix de Suresnes Chantilly 1m 2F Listed - Montreal 2nd 28th April
Prix de Guiche (Group 3) 1M 1f - Hawk Mountain 1st 4th May
Chester Vase Stakes (Group 3) 1m 4f Benvenuto Cellini 1st 6th May
Dee Stakes (Listed Race) 1m 2 1/4f Constitution River 1st 7th May
The Jockey Club comes earlier this year so it’s no surprise that AOB has done something very different and ran his colts in 2 KEY trials for the races.
It’s not his usual way of operating by sending his horse to the French trials, but as both colts ran well and coped with the track I don’t see why Constitution shows here?
Add to the fact the another key race looks short on Jockey Club contenders and has a great record for them, the French 2000 Guineas then it looks even more inevitable that they have ran their trials for their perspective Derbies.
I’m not taking yet another dummy of the Jockey Club even really coming into contention and believe Moore rides at Epsom and that he goes off fav, with targets such as the Eclipse/International open to him later down the line.
He got in preps for those for France early and we know Chester is spaced perfectly for Epsom and both sets of runners now have time between races to be built up to fever pitch.
Add in this quote from yesterday :
"Constitution River went to Chester as we knew he could be an Epsom or a French Derby horse," he explained. "We were happy that it was a mile and a quarter, in case he was going to go to France. The only thing is that if he is going to France, he's only gone left-handed. But we felt he looked very different going through all his work and looked very good last year. We were hoping and expecting to see that at Chester.”
Hawk Mountain a group 1 winner has gone right handed at Chantilly and so has Montreal.
There are betters of which I’ve been accused of not being time and again, that’s because I’m a gambler and I’ve taken the gamble that all of the above shows that he does run at Epsom and I’ve backed him.
If he’s a non runner so be it, people talk about value and the value lay in his odds being pushed out because of the doubt sown by the trainers words yesterday and we’ve heard that at least twice already this year, with intended runners not showing up for the first Classic.
There’s a saying , “You snooze, you lose.”
I missed out with Gasstad running into one primed in the Guineas, but was on @ double figures when pushed EW, whilst not believing the story and I’m gambling again knowing that any losses on a non runner can be recouped later down the line.
I think Constitution River would opt for the French Derby instead for the sole reason the race is over 10f. He might go for the Irish equivalent. Also, AOB has others for Epsom eg Benvenuto Cellini,Christmas Day, Action, etc.
I also think Pierre Bonnard will be jettisoned late on. Another defeat will be too detrimental for his stud fee, unless going over the sticks.
I also think Pierre Bonnard will be jettisoned late on. Another defeat will be too detrimental for his stud fee, unless going over the sticks.
We’ll see impossible, the past record of Dee Stakes winners is uninspiring but as I showed only one went to the Jockey Club in 2018 when Saxon Warrior was 4/5f for Epsom.
Ben is no short priced fav like him.
Mr Colonel who Ben beat at Chester albeit over a different trip but has a line to Bonnard :
06May26
Chs C13yG3 82K 1m4½f Gd 9-2 3/5 btn 6L Benvenuto Cellini
11Oct25
Nmk row C12yG3 37K 1m2f GF 9-4 p1 5/8 btn 4¾L Pierre Bonnard
That’s not the form of a Derby winner in either race to me.
Ben is no short priced fav like him.
Mr Colonel who Ben beat at Chester albeit over a different trip but has a line to Bonnard :
06May26
Chs C13yG3 82K 1m4½f Gd 9-2 3/5 btn 6L Benvenuto Cellini
11Oct25
Nmk row C12yG3 37K 1m2f GF 9-4 p1 5/8 btn 4¾L Pierre Bonnard
That’s not the form of a Derby winner in either race to me.
Personally I'd put Hawk Mountain before Ben and PB. Constitution River showed good acceleration, but that was over 10f. Nevertheless, I think we've seen the Epsom Derby winner at Chester.
I do not think The Dante result will be as significant for The Derby as in the past unless the winner is not one of AOB's. But, it's neither here nor there in terms of antepost betting.
I do not think The Dante result will be as significant for The Derby as in the past unless the winner is not one of AOB's. But, it's neither here nor there in terms of antepost betting.
Cheers impossible for giving your thoughts, I agree what you say about the Dante and it’s not a race that AOB targets with his bullets, I see Godolphin have 3 in there.
I’m not sure that Constitution would have ran over 12f first time up, only ran over 7f as a 2yrold. It was an extended 10f at Chester (not wanting to sound like I’m splitting hairs) and Moore did say that another 1f 1/2 wouldn’t be a problem, that’s because of his class which AOB has hinted at in the quote I shared earlier today.
…”But we felt he looked very different going through all his work…”
Here’s hoping that he’ll turn up and that we’ll see something special at Epsom.
I’m not sure that Constitution would have ran over 12f first time up, only ran over 7f as a 2yrold. It was an extended 10f at Chester (not wanting to sound like I’m splitting hairs) and Moore did say that another 1f 1/2 wouldn’t be a problem, that’s because of his class which AOB has hinted at in the quote I shared earlier today.
…”But we felt he looked very different going through all his work…”
Here’s hoping that he’ll turn up and that we’ll see something special at Epsom.
Very wet in Paris on Sunday so the form may not be worth much.
To who or what especially Sage going forwards what are you thinking?
The two that stood out at Chester (best trials / form so far) were Ben C and Con R. As such, I cannot foresee Ben C running against Con R prior to Epsom unless fate intervenes eg Ben C is unavailable for Epsom. Then AOB would probably take a chance and reroute Con R there; Pierre and the rest might not secure Coolmore a win, I think. Also, there's the breeding fee to consider.
But, as always, follow the money. Even the Coolmore boys and their mates play the market (to win).
But, as always, follow the money. Even the Coolmore boys and their mates play the market (to win).
I understand your viewpoint but it is more likely that he’d send him to run against a Group 1 winner in Hawk Mountain?
He’s had the speed to win over a G1 mile @ 2 and the Jockey Club suits horses who have that sort of speed who can stay the 10 1/2 F.
That clash just doesn’t make sense to me.
I’m not sure what you mean regarding the breading fee?
He’s had the speed to win over a G1 mile @ 2 and the Jockey Club suits horses who have that sort of speed who can stay the 10 1/2 F.
That clash just doesn’t make sense to me.
I’m not sure what you mean regarding the breading fee?
AOB : from SL
“What was the best Derby winner we ever had? I would say it was Galileo. And he proved to be probably one of the greatest stallions ever. That's what Epsom does. It's very tough, but you will get the blood that you really want going forward."
“She did behave very well in Chester. And Chester is probably as close to Epsom that you will get. And it's on a lesser scale, less pressure. But all the things are there. You know what I mean? The people, the track, the crowd. They have to deal with a lot of stuff."
The Jockey Club can be a notoriously messy race where your chance can be severely scuppered by a wide draw, he might be rated much higher than anything in the race (that would be the same in the Derby) but there are other decent horses in France and they are far than what he faced in a tiny field at Chester.
At Epsom sheer class would be enough to see him win.
Benvenuto Cellini’s Chester Vase was a much stronger-run affair resulting in a four-and-a-quarter length win in a 109 timefigure, 15lb higher than Lambourn managed last year.
with his overall time converting into a 124 figure.
Make no mistake, that’s exceptional for a three-year-old at a mile and a quarter in May and is not only the highest in the race this century but also easily the highest recorded in a Derby Trial in Britain or Ireland beyond a mile in that timeframe too, easily eclipsing the 119 Golden Horn posted in 2015 in the Dante before he went on to going on to win the Derby by three and a half lengths in a 127 timefigure.
“What was the best Derby winner we ever had? I would say it was Galileo. And he proved to be probably one of the greatest stallions ever. That's what Epsom does. It's very tough, but you will get the blood that you really want going forward."
“She did behave very well in Chester. And Chester is probably as close to Epsom that you will get. And it's on a lesser scale, less pressure. But all the things are there. You know what I mean? The people, the track, the crowd. They have to deal with a lot of stuff."
The Jockey Club can be a notoriously messy race where your chance can be severely scuppered by a wide draw, he might be rated much higher than anything in the race (that would be the same in the Derby) but there are other decent horses in France and they are far than what he faced in a tiny field at Chester.
At Epsom sheer class would be enough to see him win.
Benvenuto Cellini’s Chester Vase was a much stronger-run affair resulting in a four-and-a-quarter length win in a 109 timefigure, 15lb higher than Lambourn managed last year.
with his overall time converting into a 124 figure.
Make no mistake, that’s exceptional for a three-year-old at a mile and a quarter in May and is not only the highest in the race this century but also easily the highest recorded in a Derby Trial in Britain or Ireland beyond a mile in that timeframe too, easily eclipsing the 119 Golden Horn posted in 2015 in the Dante before he went on to going on to win the Derby by three and a half lengths in a 127 timefigure.
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