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French 2000 Guineas
French 2000 Guineas
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A lack of an outing put paid to Puerto Rico. He came to challenge, then regressed. Hankelow ran very well to be 2nd. But, Ravif was a deserved winner. I'm very glad for Graffard and Princess Zahra. It was well-deserved!
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Good job that you swerved it Impossible
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Delashay 08 May 26 17:54
have decided to have a decent size bet for me on Puerto Rico. GL lads. |
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Nice bit of attempted manipulation Ringo, no bet this no post where I wrote that!
Maybe you played the fav? Impossible Rayif was making his comeback too. |
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Delashay • April 17, 2026 9:56 AM BST
He’s a May foul and that would be rare for one that late to win, but he does look well built, a different type to Avicenna who looked a lot lighter yesterday. I always got the vibe that thy thought that Rayif was their best of the two, he he looked good when beating Andab in the Boutin. He missed his comeback in the Fontenbleu because he was outworked (or so they say) by Narissa who was second in the Grotte. Delashay • April 17, 2026 11:10 AM BST It’s worth remembering the improvement that Field Of Gold made from 2 to 3 having been beaten like Rayif in the Lagadere. They thought the ground wasn’t right for him that day as it wasn’t for Gosden’s as a 2 yr old. - - - - - - - I did legitimately post these remarks on my 2000 Guineas thread however and anyone that knows me knows I’m not a Ballydoyle fanboy to have gone in on PRico as you’ve made out!  |
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Hope you decided not to back that dodgy French Painter after all today Impossible.
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Delbert doesn't bet but he does love an aftertime from his relentless C&P 's
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I had a bet starting in the first and the 18/1 Last Dance EW was ok against the odds on shot.
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No, I did not. I did not play today at all. I'd possibly have backed Diamond Necklace but 1st time out and skinny price I decided to leave it to AOB and the bookies.
I do not think PB is as good as AOB has alluded to. PB might still go to Epsom but not as Moore's 1st pick. If Constitution River goes too (terribly unlikely) he'd derail Benvenuto Cellini as fav esp if Moore picks him. |
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Good job Impossible, I’m hopeful that Constitution will go, the current fav was made fav in response to Bonnard flopping first time out, it’s solidified with his win at Chester but there was only one horse for me there.
Hawk Mountain beat Graffards Jockey Club horse last time and PRico may even show up there yet. So I’m hoping! |
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Unless PB was still stuffy today he'd not quicken to go past Endorsement. He'd also be coming to the end of his stamina limitation. Anyway, I do not think the Epsom winner will come from Leopardstown.
Benvenuto Cellini needed the distance to go clear at Chester; Constitution River could quicken, but not has not raced beyond 10f. |
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Delashay 10 May 26 18:33
had more than i should have on rico,was chasing earlier losses,bit silly i realise now. |
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Delbert,the King of the aftertiming, potless ponces
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It’s the usual guessing game Impossible but I can pass up on not backing the Derby winner at his price and I don’t like that he headed the market by default originally with the failure of another.
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The Last Dance
@ 18/1 Each Way Placed Each Way: 1/5 Odds, 4 Places Placed (Each Way) Double @ 2 Lines Komorebi | The Last Dance A touch of seconditus! |
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I understand, but Benvenuto Cellini (BC) was fav against Hawk Mountain (my original fancy) in the Futurity at Doncaster on unsuitable ground. The betting market is at the mercy of AOB. I believe unless Constitution River is Epsom bound BC will be fav with Moore the jockey.
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Agree with that as I doubt the Dante will play a major role with his plans, I saw Muscat did a piece (although I didn’t read it) saying he can see them taking the Dee Stakes winner to Epsom.
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With the news that AOB is suggesting that Constitution River will go to Chantilly I looked back at the record of past Dee Stakes winners and where they ran next.
This year there is no Camelot or Rodin, or Australia who is the outright leading light for the Derby ahead of the winner. 2005 Gypsy King Kieren Fallon 2:16.47 - 5th @ 7/2 behind Motivator, Dubawi 3rd! 2007 Admiralofthefleet Michael Kinane 2:09.82 - 10th @ 14/1 to Authorized 2012 Astrology Joseph O'Brien 2:21.57 - 3rd to Camelot @ 13/2 2013 Magician Ryan Moore 2:12.96 -won the Irish 2000 Guineas @ 10/3 then last in SJP @ DawnAp 2014 Kingfisher Joseph O'Brien Aidan O'Brien 2:20.49 - 10th @ 50/1 2017 Cliffs of Moher Ryan Moore Aidan O'Brien 2:10.85 - 2nd @ 5/1 to 40/1 Wings Of Eagles 2018 Rostropovich Ryan Moore Aidan O'Brien 2:12.33 - 9th to Study of Man @13/2 PDJC, then 2nd 1m4f Ascot 2019 Circus Maximus Ryan Moore Aidan O'Brien 2:16.51 - 6th @ 10/1 Antony Van **** 13/2 no race 2020 [c] 2022 Star of India Ryan Moore Aidan O'Brien 2:12.25 - 13th @ 16/1 to Desert Crown 2023 San Antonio Ryan Moore Aidan O'Brien 2:19.90 - 10th @ 18/1 to Augusta Rodin 2024 Capulet Ryan Moore Aidan O'Brien 2:10.67 - never ran again 2025 Mount Kilimanjaro Ryan Moore Aidan O'Brien 2:12.89 - next ran in the Great Voltigeur 2026 Constitution River Ryan Moore Aidan O'Brien 2:06.54 - ??? [b]In bold are the winners of the Dee Stakes who went on to run at Ascot. Only ONE went to the PDJC[/b] |
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In bold are the winners of the Dee Stakes who went on to run at Epsom. Only ONE went to the PDJC
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And excuse me for a C&P to the temperamental types here but listen :
Hopefully Lambourn and Jan Brueghel will be okay and come out of their races last week well – and hopefully Calandagan comes," said O'Brien. "That'll make a proper race and it'll be exciting for everyone to see what's going to happen. That's what we want, we want all the big horses to turn up on those big days. Then everyone can have an opinion. "Chester was perfect for both. We wanted a sharp, hard pace round there and we were very happy….” Those two quoted in the post article earlier are going to Epsom, so it seems as though the trial at Chester and maybe more importantly the distance between races suits. The caveat is that the PDJC comes before the Derby this year @ Chantilly on 31st May, Epsom 6th June so in that sense Constitution has had an early prep and could do what only one winner of the Dee Stsles has done before. Would I be shocked to see him at Epsom after all? Given from the past NO. |
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The year that Rostropovich went to the PDJC 2018 AOB was represented by Saxon Warrior 4/5f @Epsom and the Chantilly race came the day after.
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The gravy-trainers at the Racing Post are not only giving multiple different selections at races, they've begun to offer 'lay' bets too. The latest being Bow Echo for the SJP. One opined that he was a good thing, but given no value attached (1/1 then) he'd be opposing him.
Have they not heard of the saying a bird in hand is worth two in the bush? I'd back him on the day (and probably collect) than to lay him (and probably lose). I think these racing paper journos would be ostracised or condemned for being irresponsible and bookie-talking in the days when bookies actually accepted bets. |
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Yeah they talk a lot for them Impossible, I’m not into listening to them much, one tipped Dorset for the colts Guineas yesterday which I found shocking!
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This year AOB has ran colts in the key French trials the Guiche and PRIX DE SURESNES, this isn’t something that he usually does.
Chinese Whisper was the last one that I could see who did back in 2007. Why’d he start running colts in them this year and using his Epsom trial tack for one headed to France?  It’s not like he’s sent bad horses to get a line with either as G1 winner Hawk Mountain ran and won one. His so called Derby dark horse Montreal was narrowly beaten in the other. |
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Dates of the Derby trials:
Prix de Suresnes Chantilly 1m 2F Listed - Montreal 2nd 28th April Prix de Guiche (Group 3) 1M 1f - Hawk Mountain 1st 4th May Chester Vase Stakes (Group 3) 1m 4f Benvenuto Cellini 1st 6th May Dee Stakes (Listed Race) 1m 2 1/4f Constitution River 1st 7th May The Jockey Club comes earlier this year so it’s no surprise that AOB has done something very different and ran his colts in 2 KEY trials for the races. It’s not his usual way of operating by sending his horse to the French trials, but as both colts ran well and coped with the track I don’t see why Constitution shows here? Add to the fact the another key race looks short on Jockey Club contenders and has a great record for them, the French 2000 Guineas then it looks even more inevitable that they have ran their trials for their perspective Derbies. I’m not taking yet another dummy of the Jockey Club even really coming into contention and believe Moore rides at Epsom and that he goes off fav, with targets such as the Eclipse/International open to him later down the line. He got in preps for those for France early and we know Chester is spaced perfectly for Epsom and both sets of runners now have time between races to be built up to fever pitch. Add in this quote from yesterday : "Constitution River went to Chester as we knew he could be an Epsom or a French Derby horse," he explained. "We were happy that it was a mile and a quarter, in case he was going to go to France. The only thing is that if he is going to France, he's only gone left-handed. But we felt he looked very different going through all his work and looked very good last year. We were hoping and expecting to see that at Chester.” Hawk Mountain a group 1 winner has gone right handed at Chantilly and so has Montreal. There are betters of which I’ve been accused of not being time and again, that’s because I’m a gambler and I’ve taken the gamble that all of the above shows that he does run at Epsom and I’ve backed him. If he’s a non runner so be it, people talk about value and the value lay in his odds being pushed out because of the doubt sown by the trainers words yesterday and we’ve heard that at least twice already this year, with intended runners not showing up for the first Classic. There’s a saying , “You snooze, you lose.” I missed out with Gasstad running into one primed in the Guineas, but was on @ double figures when pushed EW, whilst not believing the story and I’m gambling again knowing that any losses on a non runner can be recouped later down the line. |
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I think Constitution River would opt for the French Derby instead for the sole reason the race is over 10f. He might go for the Irish equivalent. Also, AOB has others for Epsom eg Benvenuto Cellini,Christmas Day, Action, etc.
I also think Pierre Bonnard will be jettisoned late on. Another defeat will be too detrimental for his stud fee, unless going over the sticks. |
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We’ll see impossible, the past record of Dee Stakes winners is uninspiring but as I showed only one went to the Jockey Club in 2018 when Saxon Warrior was 4/5f for Epsom.
Ben is no short priced fav like him. Mr Colonel who Ben beat at Chester albeit over a different trip but has a line to Bonnard : 06May26 Chs C13yG3 82K 1m4½f Gd 9-2 3/5 btn 6L Benvenuto Cellini 11Oct25 Nmk row C12yG3 37K 1m2f GF 9-4 p1 5/8 btn 4¾L Pierre Bonnard That’s not the form of a Derby winner in either race to me. |
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Personally I'd put Hawk Mountain before Ben and PB. Constitution River showed good acceleration, but that was over 10f. Nevertheless, I think we've seen the Epsom Derby winner at Chester.
I do not think The Dante result will be as significant for The Derby as in the past unless the winner is not one of AOB's. But, it's neither here nor there in terms of antepost betting. |
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Cheers impossible for giving your thoughts, I agree what you say about the Dante and it’s not a race that AOB targets with his bullets, I see Godolphin have 3 in there.
I’m not sure that Constitution would have ran over 12f first time up, only ran over 7f as a 2yrold. It was an extended 10f at Chester (not wanting to sound like I’m splitting hairs) and Moore did say that another 1f 1/2 wouldn’t be a problem, that’s because of his class which AOB has hinted at in the quote I shared earlier today. …”But we felt he looked very different going through all his work…” Here’s hoping that he’ll turn up and that we’ll see something special at Epsom. |
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Very wet in Paris on Sunday so the form may not be worth much.
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To who or what especially Sage going forwards what are you thinking?
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The two that stood out at Chester (best trials / form so far) were Ben C and Con R. As such, I cannot foresee Ben C running against Con R prior to Epsom unless fate intervenes eg Ben C is unavailable for Epsom. Then AOB would probably take a chance and reroute Con R there; Pierre and the rest might not secure Coolmore a win, I think. Also, there's the breeding fee to consider.
But, as always, follow the money. Even the Coolmore boys and their mates play the market (to win). |
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I understand your viewpoint but it is more likely that he’d send him to run against a Group 1 winner in Hawk Mountain?
He’s had the speed to win over a G1 mile @ 2 and the Jockey Club suits horses who have that sort of speed who can stay the 10 1/2 F. That clash just doesn’t make sense to me. I’m not sure what you mean regarding the breading fee? |
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AOB : from SL
“What was the best Derby winner we ever had? I would say it was Galileo. And he proved to be probably one of the greatest stallions ever. That's what Epsom does. It's very tough, but you will get the blood that you really want going forward." “She did behave very well in Chester. And Chester is probably as close to Epsom that you will get. And it's on a lesser scale, less pressure. But all the things are there. You know what I mean? The people, the track, the crowd. They have to deal with a lot of stuff." The Jockey Club can be a notoriously messy race where your chance can be severely scuppered by a wide draw, he might be rated much higher than anything in the race (that would be the same in the Derby) but there are other decent horses in France and they are far than what he faced in a tiny field at Chester. At Epsom sheer class would be enough to see him win. Benvenuto Cellini’s Chester Vase was a much stronger-run affair resulting in a four-and-a-quarter length win in a 109 timefigure, 15lb higher than Lambourn managed last year. with his overall time converting into a 124 figure. Make no mistake, that’s exceptional for a three-year-old at a mile and a quarter in May and is not only the highest in the race this century but also easily the highest recorded in a Derby Trial in Britain or Ireland beyond a mile in that timeframe too, easily eclipsing the 119 Golden Horn posted in 2015 in the Dante before he went on to going on to win the Derby by three and a half lengths in a 127 timefigure. |
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Apologies yes Le Havre I get you ;)
Premiums eligible Yes EBF Eligible Yes I’m not sure what or how that’d impact his stallion fee as a Derby winner though, you know more than that than me. |