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Bashers wallet taking a bashing....
Bashers wallet taking a bashing....
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Explain value and staking Albert Jnr……..
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I do not talk to Aceform.
However,if a person backed heads or tails at 5/4 they would be in front over time. If they backed at 4/5 they would lose over time  |
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value ? explain it ....... i always look at a race /runners first and not at the betting if one or a couple catch my eye i focus on those and make a descision at what price i would be happy taking ..for example if i thought id be happy with 10/1 and its 16s or bigger then im going in at those prices initially with one or 2 of the firms and hopefully bog then i will go in again nearer racetime about 2 or 3 mins before the off on here and always stick a few bob on bfsp as that is often way bigger than sp.
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agree FOYLESWAR, you need to have an idea of what price your selection should be. If it is 10-1 the night before, but you can't get on, if it is 8-1 in the morning, but you can't get on, and if it is now 5-1 at race time, it has become bad value (in your opinion). No one can win long term backing 10-1 shots at 5-1. So ace, value is everything because at the end of the day it's a numbers game and you need twice as many 5-1 winners as 10-1 winners to be in the same position. So the combination of bookie restrictions and Betfair card marking has made pro-punting pre-race for form readers unviable today for the majority. No doubt some still win, managing to get on a top price, inside info etc but I'd imagine there's very few.
You could say with BOG (if you get it, which if you win a lot you won't) the drifters would could offset the shorteners, but difters don't win....do they?! |
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value only becomes unmistakingly apparent after the race, win lose or draw. if your 16/1 bet gets beat a nose, you lost but you had value imo. my 75 bets bets this week overall were without doubt value because im +33. some of the 42 losers were beaten out of sight, so they clearly were not value, but i didnt know that until after the race. i had 2 losers matched at 1.05 in running, id say those were value bets.on an individual bet basis its all subjective until after the result is known.your p/l at the end of the day/week/month/year tells you if you had value overall on your bets, and how much value you had.
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people say that bfsp is the true price but i disagree. while the whole market is 100%, on an individual basis there are horses way out of line even at bfsp. if those ones are too big, then others will be too short.
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statistically on betfair BSP is near the mark, but agree, the collective minds may overbet certain selections, giving 'value' elsewhere, but as you say there's no financial 'value' in backing losers but a lot of value in the winners, once they've paid out!
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Value is everything.
Irons explains it exactly how I do. If you are happy to bet heads at 4/5, then you will never win. I do not agree that value only becomes apparent after the race. That makes no sense what so ever. |
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basher generates 'value' by saying he's backed the 4/5 in a double with something that won at nottingham 3 weeks ago (that he never mentioned).
so he's no longer on at 4/5, he's getting paid at 100/30. "value" he also claims to be backing the 7/2 shots at 9/1 the night before. "value" except that would get your account closed in 5 minutes. spoiler alert for anyone that believes him, soz  |
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Only a Village Idiot cannot see Bashers M/O
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Call me Jim Trott NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO
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not a good look for the head of his operation to be spunking loads on gambling.
so every so often he'll 'head inside' to have a chunk on one at Romford that the biddlers been told cannot lose. to date, all 27 of those have won.  |
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Backing at 9/1 and going off at 7/2 would get you closed whether it won or not.
He is a Grade A bullshatter |
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get you closed before it ran.
you'd have a "fck off, no more racing bets, you can still play the slots" email two hours before the start. |
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How do you know that when you win you've haven't just been lucky, and when you lose you have just been unlucky ?
Take 10,000 chimps picking horses - some will be up after even 1000 bets. How do you know that you're not just a lucky chimp ? |
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Johnny, this is a serious thread, you're talking monkey business.
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you open an account and your first 3 bets all shorten, meaning you got value.
they can either take a chance and say you just got lucky. or they can just empty you. they don't need to take chances. they can also run your name past their bookie friends, illegally, and see if you've been "lucky" with them. |
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Spot on hulk
He was waiting on about 20 horses for about 2-5k with just a 9k outlay which is clearly impossible He's a horrific punter. Just a chavvy salesman offering a service for people to get involved in racing. Must be making 200k+ a year, fair play to him |
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jonnythe g how do you know that when you have won you are not just lucky, i suppose its how consistently "lucky or unlucky " you are, if its a winner every pancake day so to speak you probably have been just lucky , if you are hitting winners at a consistent rate its probably fair to say its not down to luck on its own.
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they're much more bothered about the prices you're taking
if you take 33/1 and it loses at 15/8, tailed off never in the hunt. that'll still rattle them more than a 4/1 winner, backed at 11/4. |
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Terrible punter no idea why he puts so much money on.
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