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25 Jan 26
10:26
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Date Joined:
03 Feb 11
There are not many good things that come with getting older but acquired knowledge is one of them, after nearly forty five years of watching racing you get to notice the odd thing or two and yesterday's Cotswold Chase was one of those moments. In my opinion Grey Dawning ran a fantastic Gold Cup trial whilst at the same time not running a fantastic race in the Cotswold Chase. The horses that beat him yesterday would cast huge doubt on his ability to win the big one if you take that literally, then remember that for him this was nothing but a trial for the festival and he ran accordingly. He was kept off the two leaders, settled, jumped, travelled and then pushed out rather than empty him trying to win a grade two. Now he goes home, will be freshened up and be at his peak for the Gold Cup. Why bookmakers pushed him out to 25-1 after the race I do not know so I availed myself of that. This kind of thing used to happen a lot in the old days, you could maybe argue that the horse did not run on merit on the day but the trainers thinking will allow a peak Grey Dawning to show up at the festival and for that he deserves lots of credit. As I write this he is still 25-1 which is a giveaway so tuck in and why Spillanes Tower is half his price I will never know, maybe these kids fresh out of university who know nothing are putting out the prices, so annoying. As far as value goes its excellent at 25-1, I backed Haiti Coleurs for the Gold Cup after the Betfair Chase at 65-1 and if you look the value is there and I am pleased to be going into the Gold Cup with these two running for me, especially interesting will be next weeks Irish Gold Cup when Haiti goes over to take them on in there own back yard, just dont like the Irish for this years Gold Cup with the exception to that being Gaelic Warrior.
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Replies: 55
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I agree with your opinion.Exactly the way i seen it.
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I think the Skelton barn will be silenced big time at Cheltenham and Aintree…..
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After over 60 years of watching racing my feeling is the horse isn't good enough and probably won't stay.
My one reservation would be whether his rather dismal performance yesterday was in anyway affected by the nasty kick he got at the start. |
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It's all about opinions, I actually forgot the kick he got but not sure that had to much to do with the performance, just think it was the trainer treating it as a prep run, by the way I have always questioned the level of ability of the horse and I have never thought of his as good enough for the Gold Cup, that race was striking on a training perspective yesterday and maybe that gives him the best chance he can have in a Gold Cup, 25-1 in this years gold cup is really decent value and an over reaction to that TRIAL yesterday. best wishes.
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Yep.
Fair enough. 25-1 isn't the worst of bets. Good luck. |
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I'd be surprised if he's good enough to win a GC but anyone being sensible could see the horse was only gonna win yesterday if it was on the bridle. The betting even told us that. Sure the trainer afterwards was more or less saying it was all about just getting a run into the horse.
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good luck manuel , heart wood one at a price but not 100/% sure to go here has the ryanaire as an option and much shorter in that 2nd to fact to file in last years ryanaire btn 9l . has decent form and quite lightly raced this year won the feature race over 2.6f at tramore on new years day by 8l jumped well henrys were not pulling up trees at the time and yard still not firing em in but he usually has em ready for festival and hopefully the step up in trip will suit .henry de brom has said the ryanaire looks the race for him but things can change and 100/1 with the firms i have had a crack and also at 180 ish on here for a few quid .
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One thing to be vary wary of in terms of the Gold Cup is backing 10yo plus as the last one to win was Cool Dawn in 1998
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Good luck with them.
Wasn’t over impressed with Dawning yesterday or when he won previously. By that I mean I don’t see him winning the Gold Cup as a result, although he will no doubt improve. Skelton has misled us as to a horse’s real ability before now. I haven’t had a bet in the race and probably won’t on the day but my sentiments are with Galopin to win his third from four goes. That would be a very special achievement for a special horse which I would love to see. We’ll get a sighter as to his wellbeing next weekend at Leops. |
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Grey Dawning is actually 9 but the point is a fair one. Rather amazingly nothing older than 8 has won for 10 years. I always remember being told that the peak age for a staying chaser was 9. Back in the 60s that was probably true and indeed between 1945 and 1973 there were 11 winners of the Gold Cup who were 10 or more. Nothing aged more than 9 has won it this millenium. I suspect it's a mixture of breeding and training methods.
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Would you back Grey Dawning to beat any of the first 4 in the KG should be the first question anyone asks?
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MANUEL is quite right. Cool Dawn was the last 10-y-o in 1998.
I can actually remember the 12-y-o What A Myth winning in the late 60s. He wasn't even top class as a younger horse. He and Arkle met in a handicap when they were both nearly 10 and Arkle came out over 33lbs the better horse. |
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Most over hyped horse in training. If it wasn’t a very light grey it would barely get a mention. Trainer has a big mouth as well.
Beating Ginnys Destiny a couple of times as a novice and an 11 year old Royale Pagaille this season is miles below Gold Cup form. Can’t have Haiti either for that matter. Good luck though, |
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GL OP
But don't think this is good enough to win the Gold Cup. |
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He's got no Grade 1 scalps on his resume to suggest he is indeed one himself although his 2nd to Gaelic Warrior was a decent performance.
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25s looks about right to me
I haven't seem anything in this horse's form to suggest that he is good enough to win a Gold Cup. Like salmon, I don't think he stays well enough anyway. |
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I agree that Haiti is an interesting contender. He reminds me of many of the dour stayers that used to win a Gold Cup, though not so often nowadays, seemingly - Master Oats, Cool Ground, etc.
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What I am stating is that, the Cotswold was just a trial for the gold cup and that pushing him out to 25-1 was an overreaction considering the stable where just preparing him perfectly for the gold cup, therefore he represents great value, it's just like the trainers of old preparing one, someone asked about comparison with the King George form, for me I have backed him ahead of them mainly due to value, my concern is that you had four horses with a blanket covering them all and none of which have any proof in the bag that they will stay 3m2f around Cheltenham and can they all be top quality? That said I worry about Gaelic Warrior, he is the one who might just improve greatly for the trip and the one with the most talent of them all, indeed I have said I don't fancy the Irish runners with the exception of Gaelic Warrior, it will be interesting on Saturday when they all meet in the Irish Gold Cup, I just want Haiti to run well, he need not necessary win, not sure three miles is his trip, but run well and then prepare for the gold cup and that hill and those two extra furlongs.
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good to have you back manuel remember you posting from about a decade back mainly on the ante post forum good luck. gaelic warrior is one of a few also i am wary about but price too short for me atm. a lot can happen in the next 5 weeks or so including this weekend . iknwthewayyathinking looks to be trained for one race only but again not a price id be interested in .
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Backed Iknowthewayyourthinkin last year for the gold cup after he flopped first time, think I got 150-s on betfair and also backed him with the sportsbook later, sadly he was withdrawn from a declaration stage so lost the bet on the exchanges bit still got paid on the sportsbook, very similar thing to what I have done with Haiti this year, one flop big drift take big price run a great race and backed in again. I also remember your name on here as a lot of that series was filmed at the back of my garden in Liverpool.
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I wouldn’t be surprised to see it in the frame going over the last,this mob are determined…..doubtful it will win tho’
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Hello Iswearitsoath,I agree with you he is an old fashioned staying chaser and lets hope follows in the line of Synchronised who I tipped for his Gold Cup at big prices, he also won the Welsh National before winning what was then the Lexus Chase and then the Gold Cup, interestingly when Haiti had his second run over fences at Aintree I asked my friend to watch the race again and to look at how brilliant a jumper he was for a novice and now here he is 34lbs higher in the handicap going for a gold cup, just saw something that day, even in a small field.
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Hi Manuel, I agree that it is very satisfying when you spot something to your advantage to use later on. I recall seeing Joes Edge come on and off the bridle in a novice chase at Aintree, also in a small field, over 3m1f (just looked it up as I thought it was over 2m4f) and was sure he'd improve for a marathon trip, so backed him the year he won the Scottish National. On the other side of the coin, I was convinced that Hurricane Fly wouldn't go up the Cheltenham hill. So some you win, others you call wrongly and lose! Haiti does have shades of Synchronised. Hopefully you backed him each-way as lots of those types of horses have placed in Gold Cups - Truckers Tavern Sir Rembrandt, Hedgehunter, etc.
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Oh no don't mention Truckers Tavern and Sir Rembrandt, all your missing is Harbour Pilot and you have the full house of total average that gave Best Mate his wholly inflated reputation, I think Haiti Coleurs is way better than those three that's for sure, think he is also way different to Synchronised, certainly jumps better, although following a similar route to some degree.
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“Wholly inflated”? Three Gold Cups, a King George, various other top class races beating everything that challenged for those same prizes. Never touched a twig throughout except for the second last at Kempton. I find that admirable , not wholly inflated. Died on the racecourse giving us entertainment. That is not to say that he wasn’t very much outshone by the later achievements of Kauto Star because he was. That is indisputable. At least that’s the way it looks. I spotted him as a five year old and followed him all through his career, so I am of course biased.
 Good luck. Enjoy your posts. |
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Best Mate is the best chaser I've ever seen, in terms of the technique of jumping fences over and extended career. He also had to skip a festival year due to foot and mouth. Kauto was a superior horse but took plenty of fences with him. The GC is no longer a slog unless there is very deep going. A remote possibility.
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I'd also defend best mate, whilst admitting he raced in a poor era of staying chasers. He beat a peak beef or salmon at leopardstown - never an easy feat, even if the Irish horse gained revenge the following year. It's just a shame that Monsignor never got a chance to challenge him.
As to Haiti, I do think he's better than those horses I mentioned but he really has to run well if turning up at leopardstown, after his grade 1 failure at haydock. |
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Haiti would be National bound of he was mine, maybe thats the point of this weekends Irish entry, see how competitive he is regards Cheltenham or Aintree.
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My view today is the same as it was at the time with due regard to best mate, won three gold cups and that is a fantastic achievement, in doing so he could only beat what was around in those races, just happens that he beat trees and in two of those gold cups by not a great deal, he did beat Beef or Salmon one year before being slammed the next year by the same horse, we all remember Carberry waving at him as he sprinted away, Being beaten by Florida Pearl was probably his best run on a form basis, then who can forget that classic photo finish with Seebald at Level weights, as I say fantastic achievement in winning three gold cups and he did jump really well and deserves his place at the top table but on form when you break it down things dont look the same analytically, that said that does happen a lot, very similar thing to the mare Honeysuckle, great achievements but on form nothing to write home about.
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As BOS beat BM in a race doesn't mean he was a superior horse does it. You are entitled to your opinion obviously, Best Mate was a generational champion. And yes having the best technique of any chaser marks him out as special, as well as his achievements. I have no idea if I am correct, I'm not familiar with you as a poster, however I sense there's an Irish tilt to your analysis to claim BM has a 'wholly inflated reputation'.
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Denman Chse now for Haiti Coulers.
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Not Irish nor have any bias towards Irish horses, achievement of winning three gold cups cannot be taken away, he did jump superbly also so no disagreement there, however here is what I base my claims on, forget Beef Or Salmon, Forget Seebald, Forget Jair Du Cochet, forget Florida Pearl, lets just look at the three gold cups, first one beats Commanche Court 2L who went into the Gold Cup rated 156 and a 12yo See More Business 10L when he was rated 162. Second Gold Cup beats Truckers Tavern 10L that horse was rated 151 and Harbour Pilot 12L who was 149 on his last run prior to the Gold Cup. Third Gold Cup beats Sir Rembrandt half a length and Harbour Pilot two lengths when they were rated 155 and 159, the highest rated horse placed in any of those gold cups was rated 162, or nowadays top weight in the Ultima Handicap. He beat Marlborough in the King George one and a half lengths with that horse rated 159. When he beat Beef Or Salmon in Ireland that horse scoped dirty after the race and the horse who finished second Le Coudray was a 159 horse. None of the horses placed in any of his gold cups went onto win another grade one or even a grade two. So much as I agree with you on his achievement and excellent jumping hopefully you can agree that on a strict form basis he was nothing out of the ordinary in gold cup winner terms. I also back in the day used this very same argument about Galileo on the flat, you may remember Jim McGrath saying it was in his top five of all time, of course years later he admitted to getting that totally wrong, he was no superstar by a long way and yet he was hyped to be one and more latterly the same can be said about Honeysuckle, achievement wise its hats off to her but her actual form in winning is far from amazing.
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I wouldn't be one for quantifying a horse's ability on an allotted rating, personally. Ostensibly they can only be rated by judging their performances against other horses that also have been allotted an arbitrary rating. There is no guaranteed benchmark to work from.
A rating, at least the official one is meant to be what the horse can achieve given its ideal conditions. Was the GC BM's ideal conditions, I don't know. Yes he beat SR by half a length in his last GC, I doubt if anyone feels that was a true reflection of their abilities, in that race or away from it. It was the final result, I'll grant you that. Of course this is the old pub talk, and it's fun to some extent. BM won the hearts of a large portion of the country at the time, with his pure jumping ability and swagger, the way he did it, several seasons running, that marks him out as a 'racing great' for me. I don't need an abacus to tell me that he was :) |
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Well everything is about opinions and everyone has one I guess, incidentally all his gold cup wins were on good going or described officially as good, I suppose greats of the chasing world would have to be Denman, Dessie, Kauto in my lifetime, I would put Best Mate in and alongside Beef Or Salmon and Florida Pearl who were other excellent chasers. In terms of Gold Cup victories Imperial Commander has to be right up there as one of the best, he beat a horse rated 185 to win his gold cup and he himself was rated 10LB better than Best Mate after winning his gold cup and of course Long Run beating Kauto and Denman and he reached a 182 rating again 7lb higher than Best Mate.
In closing I totally agree with you on his achievements and his jumping prowess and on those two points he has every right to be called a great without question, but not on actual form ratings in which he lags behind many others. Incidentally using your rational would you say Honeysuckle was a great in terms of hurdling, best wishes. |
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A great mare, yes.
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You’re right MANUEL. Well done. Thank you for your opinions.
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Agreed Cider, a great mare, but not a great champion, also thank you Loyal
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Cider one thing I came across today when checking on something, I really liked a horse called Exotic Dancer who had the misfortune to have to take Kauto Star on continually at his peak and of course never won anything of note because of this, still he was a nice horse and despite not winning a gold cup or king george etc he at his peak was rated 2LB better than Best Mate at his peak.
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It's an example of why ratings are practically meaningless at the top level. Unless they run in a handicap.
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