Grey Dawning, Gold Cup and Dan Skelton

I agree with your opinion.Exactly the way i seen it.

I think the Skelton barn will be silenced big time at Cheltenham and Aintree…..

After over 60 years of watching racing my feeling is the horse isn't good enough and probably won't stay.
My one reservation would be whether his rather dismal performance yesterday was in anyway affected by the nasty kick he got at the start.

It's all about opinions, I actually forgot the kick he got but not sure that had to much to do with the performance, just think it was the trainer treating it as a prep run, by the way I have always questioned the level of ability of the horse and I have never thought of his as good enough for the Gold Cup, that race was striking on a training perspective yesterday and maybe that gives him the best chance he can have in a Gold Cup, 25-1 in this years gold cup is really decent value and an over reaction to that TRIAL yesterday. best wishes.

Yep.
Fair enough.
25-1 isn't the worst of bets.
Good luck.

I'd be surprised if he's good enough to win a GC but anyone being sensible could see the horse was only gonna win yesterday if it was on the bridle. The betting even told us that. Sure the trainer afterwards was more or less saying it was all about just getting a run into the horse.

good luck manuel , heart wood  one at a price but not 100/% sure to go here has the ryanaire as an option and much shorter in that  2nd to fact to file in last years ryanaire btn 9l . has decent form and  quite lightly raced this year won the feature race over 2.6f at tramore on new years day by 8l  jumped well henrys were not pulling up trees at the time and yard still not firing em in but he usually has em ready for festival  and hopefully the step up in trip will suit .henry de brom has said the ryanaire looks the race for him but things can change and 100/1 with the firms i have had a crack  and also at 180 ish on here for a few quid .

One thing to be vary wary of in terms of the Gold Cup is backing 10yo plus as the last one to win was Cool Dawn in 1998

Good luck with them. 
Wasn’t over impressed with Dawning yesterday or when he won previously.  By that I mean I don’t see him winning the Gold Cup as a result, although he will no doubt improve.  Skelton has misled us as to a horse’s real ability before now. 
I haven’t had a bet in the race and probably won’t on the day but my sentiments are with Galopin to win his third from four goes.  That would be a very special achievement for a special horse which I would love to see. We’ll get a sighter as to his wellbeing next weekend at Leops.

Grey Dawning is actually 9 but the point is a fair one. Rather amazingly nothing older than 8 has won for 10 years. I always remember being told that the peak age for a staying chaser was 9. Back in the 60s that was probably true and indeed between 1945 and 1973 there were 11 winners of the Gold Cup who were 10 or more. Nothing aged more than 9 has won it this millenium. I suspect it's a mixture of breeding and training methods.

Would you back Grey Dawning to beat any of the first 4 in the KG should be the first question anyone asks?

MANUEL is quite right. Cool Dawn was the last 10-y-o in 1998.
I can actually remember the 12-y-o What A Myth winning in the late 60s. He wasn't even top class as a younger horse. He and Arkle met in a handicap when they were both nearly 10 and Arkle came out over 33lbs the better horse.

Most over hyped horse in training. If it wasn’t a very light grey it would barely get a mention. Trainer has a big mouth as well.

Beating Ginnys Destiny a couple of times as a novice and an 11 year old Royale Pagaille this season is miles below Gold Cup form.
Can’t have Haiti either for that matter.

Good luck though,

GL OP
But don't think this is good enough to win the Gold Cup.

He's got no Grade 1 scalps on his resume to suggest he is indeed one himself although his 2nd to Gaelic Warrior was a decent performance.

25s looks about right to me

I haven't seem anything in this horse's form to suggest that he is good enough to win a Gold Cup. Like salmon, I don't think he stays well enough anyway.

I agree that Haiti is an interesting contender. He reminds me of many of the dour stayers that used to win a Gold Cup, though not so often nowadays, seemingly - Master Oats, Cool Ground, etc.

What I am stating is that, the Cotswold was just a trial for the gold cup and that pushing him out to 25-1 was an overreaction considering the stable where just preparing him perfectly for the gold cup, therefore he represents great value, it's just like the trainers of old preparing one, someone asked about comparison with the King George form, for me I have backed him ahead of them mainly due to value, my concern is that you had four horses with a blanket covering them all and none of which have any proof in the bag that they will stay 3m2f around Cheltenham and can they all be top quality? That said I worry about Gaelic Warrior, he is the one who might just improve greatly for the trip and the one with the most talent of them all, indeed I have said I don't fancy the Irish runners with the exception of Gaelic Warrior, it will be interesting on Saturday when they all meet in the Irish Gold Cup, I just want Haiti to run well, he need not necessary win, not sure three miles is his trip, but run well and then prepare for the gold cup and that hill and those two extra furlongs.

good to have you back manuel remember you posting from about a decade back mainly on the ante post forum good luck. gaelic warrior is one  of a few also i am wary about but price too short for me atm.  a lot can happen in the next 5 weeks or so including this weekend . iknwthewayyathinking looks to be trained for one race only but again not a price id be interested in .

Backed Iknowthewayyourthinkin last year for the gold cup after he flopped first time, think I got 150-s on betfair and also backed him with the sportsbook later, sadly he was withdrawn from a declaration stage so lost the bet on the exchanges bit still got paid on the sportsbook, very similar thing to what I have done with Haiti this year, one flop big drift take big price run a great race and backed in again. I also remember your name on here as a lot of that series was filmed at the back of my garden in Liverpool.

I wouldn’t be surprised to see it in the frame going over the last,this mob are determined…..doubtful it will win tho’

Hello Iswearitsoath,I agree with you he is an old fashioned staying chaser and lets hope follows in the line of Synchronised who I tipped for his Gold Cup at big prices, he also won the Welsh National before winning what was then the Lexus Chase and then the Gold Cup, interestingly when Haiti had his second run over fences at Aintree I asked my friend to watch the race again and to look at how brilliant a jumper he was for a novice and now here he is 34lbs higher in the handicap going for a gold cup, just saw something that day, even in a small field.

Hi Manuel, I agree that it is very satisfying when you spot something to your advantage to use later on. I recall seeing Joes Edge come on and off the bridle in a novice chase at Aintree, also in a small field, over 3m1f (just looked it up as I thought it was over 2m4f) and was sure he'd improve for a marathon trip, so backed him the year he won the Scottish National. On the other side of the coin, I was convinced that Hurricane Fly wouldn't go up the Cheltenham hill. So some you win, others you call wrongly and lose! Haiti does have shades of Synchronised. Hopefully you backed him each-way as lots of those types of horses have placed in Gold Cups - Truckers Tavern Sir Rembrandt, Hedgehunter, etc.

Oh no don't mention Truckers Tavern and Sir Rembrandt, all your missing is Harbour Pilot and you have the full house of total average that gave Best Mate his wholly inflated reputation, I think Haiti Coleurs is way better than those three that's for sure, think he is also way different to Synchronised, certainly jumps better, although following a similar route to some degree.

“Wholly inflated”?  Three Gold Cups, a King George, various other top class races beating everything that challenged for those same prizes.  Never touched a twig throughout except for the second last at Kempton.  I find that admirable , not wholly inflated.  Died on the racecourse giving us entertainment.  That is not to say that he wasn’t very much outshone by the later achievements of Kauto Star because he was.  That is indisputable.  At least that’s the way it looks.  I spotted him as a five year old and followed him all through his career, so I am of course biased. 
Good luck.  Enjoy your posts.

Best Mate is the best chaser I've ever seen, in terms of the technique of jumping fences over and extended career. He also had to skip a festival year due to foot and mouth. Kauto was a superior horse but took plenty of fences with him. The GC is no longer a slog unless there is very deep going. A remote possibility.

I'd also defend best mate, whilst admitting he raced in a poor era of staying chasers. He beat a peak beef or salmon at leopardstown - never an easy feat, even if the Irish horse gained revenge the following year. It's just a shame that Monsignor never got a chance to challenge him.

As to Haiti, I do think he's better than those horses I mentioned but he really has to run well if turning up at leopardstown, after his grade 1 failure at haydock.

Haiti would be National bound of he was mine, maybe thats the point of this weekends Irish entry, see how competitive he is regards Cheltenham or Aintree.

My view today is the same as it was at the time with due regard to best mate, won three gold cups and that is a fantastic achievement, in doing so he could only beat what was around in those races, just happens that he beat trees and in two of those gold cups by not a great deal, he did beat Beef or Salmon one year before being slammed the next year by the same horse, we all remember Carberry waving at him as he sprinted away, Being beaten by Florida Pearl was probably his best run  on a form basis, then who can forget that classic photo finish with Seebald at Level weights, as I say fantastic achievement in winning three gold cups and he did jump really well and deserves his place at the top table but on form when you break it down things dont look the same analytically, that said that does happen a lot, very similar thing to the mare Honeysuckle, great achievements but on form nothing to write home about.

As BOS beat BM in a race doesn't mean he was a superior horse does it. You are entitled to your opinion obviously, Best Mate was a generational champion. And yes having the best technique of any chaser marks him out as special, as well as his achievements. I have no idea if I am correct, I'm not familiar with you as a poster, however I sense there's an Irish tilt to your analysis to claim BM has a 'wholly inflated reputation'.

Denman Chse now for Haiti Coulers.

Not Irish nor have any bias towards Irish horses, achievement of winning three gold cups cannot be taken away, he did jump superbly also so no disagreement there, however here is what I base my claims on, forget Beef Or Salmon, Forget Seebald, Forget Jair Du Cochet, forget Florida Pearl, lets just look at the three gold cups, first one beats Commanche Court 2L who went into the Gold Cup rated 156 and a 12yo See More Business 10L when he was rated 162. Second Gold Cup beats Truckers Tavern 10L that horse was rated 151 and Harbour Pilot 12L who was 149 on his last run prior to the Gold Cup. Third Gold Cup beats Sir Rembrandt half a length and Harbour Pilot two lengths when they were rated 155 and 159, the highest rated horse placed in any of those gold cups was rated 162, or nowadays top weight in the Ultima Handicap. He beat Marlborough in the King George one and a half lengths with that horse rated 159. When he beat Beef Or Salmon in Ireland that horse scoped dirty after the race and the horse who finished second Le Coudray was a 159 horse. None of the horses placed in any of his gold cups went onto win another grade one or even a grade two. So much as I agree with you on his achievement and excellent jumping hopefully you can agree that on a strict form basis he was nothing out of the ordinary in gold cup winner terms. I also back in the day used this very same argument about Galileo on the flat, you may remember Jim McGrath saying it was in his top five of all time, of course years later he admitted to getting that totally wrong, he was no superstar by a long way and yet he was hyped to be one and more latterly the same can be said about Honeysuckle, achievement wise its hats off to her but her actual form in winning is far from amazing.

I wouldn't be one for quantifying a horse's ability on an allotted rating, personally. Ostensibly they can only be rated by judging their performances against other horses that also have been allotted an arbitrary rating. There is no guaranteed benchmark to work from.
A rating, at least the official one is meant to be what the horse can achieve given its ideal conditions. Was the GC BM's ideal conditions, I don't know.
Yes he beat SR by half a length in his last GC, I doubt if anyone feels that was a true reflection of their abilities, in that race or away from it. It was the final result, I'll grant you that.
Of course this is the old pub talk, and it's fun to some extent. BM won the hearts of a large portion of the country at the time, with his pure jumping ability and swagger, the way he did it, several seasons running, that marks him out as a 'racing great' for me. I don't need an abacus to tell me that he was :)

Well everything is about opinions and everyone has one I guess, incidentally all his gold cup wins were on good going or described officially as good, I suppose greats of the chasing world would have to be Denman, Dessie, Kauto in my lifetime, I would put Best Mate in and alongside Beef Or Salmon and Florida Pearl who were other excellent chasers. In terms of Gold Cup victories Imperial Commander has to be right up there as one of the best, he beat a horse rated 185 to win his gold cup and he himself was rated 10LB better than Best Mate after winning his gold cup and of course Long Run beating Kauto and Denman and he reached a 182 rating again 7lb higher than Best Mate.

In closing I totally agree with you on his achievements and his jumping prowess and on those two points he has every right to be called a great without question, but not on actual form ratings in which he lags behind many others.

Incidentally using your rational would you say Honeysuckle was a great in terms of hurdling, best wishes.

A great mare, yes.

You’re right MANUEL.  Well done.  Thank you for your opinions.

Agreed Cider, a great mare, but not a great champion, also thank you Loyal

Cider one thing I came across today when checking on something, I really liked a horse called Exotic Dancer who had the misfortune to have to take Kauto Star on continually at his peak and of course never won anything of note because of this, still he was a nice horse and despite not winning a gold cup or king george etc he at his peak was rated 2LB better than Best Mate at his peak.

It's an example of why ratings are practically meaningless at the top level. Unless they run in a handicap.

Horses can improve of course but over a career the ratings are an excellent guide to a horses ability, for instance the 175 Best Mate and the 177 Exotic Dancer are achieved over their whole career not on solitary runs and based on who they beat and how far year on year, those two marks are at their peaks and really its difficult to discount them on that basis.

No, peak ratings are achieved via one performance. And that can be when conditions conspire/combine to create a high rating.

Master Minded might be a good example.

I'm not stating that people shouldn't look at official ratings and use them to classify ability. It just doesn't interest me. Perhaps it's a dichotomy my as working life (and a fair chunk of my private life) is dominated by numbers. But in racing I am mostly qualitative.

For example I know that Montjeu was the best 12f horse I've ever seen. I couldn't care less what his rating was, but I did get to see MJK lob past me on the way to the finishing line in Ascot lol.

Master Minded ran four times at a rating of 186, there was no one off with him, I agree one off performances can and do occur and can be outliers with due regard to other form especially on the flat, Hawk Wing is a prime example. but not so much over the jumps and in the case of Best Mate his peak career performance with him at his very best was when winning the Gold Cup beating Truckers Tavern 10L, for that his RPR was 178, whereas Exotic Dancer hit that mark four times in his career without winning anything, so either at a given peak or over a career he still comes out above Best Mate when handicapping them both and yet won next to nothing because he faced Kauto all season and Kauto at his peak. Finally without ratings how do you assess the quality of any graded race?

Well I would have far more trouble in debating Montjeu than Best Mate as he is right up there when it comes to 12f at least in my lifetime, though not a favourite of mine his class and form is undeniable

My favourite flat horse of all time was Giants Causeway, he really was the Iron Horse and yet his form in general was nothing amazing , he was consistent, tough and loved a fight, he did have three stand out performances, the two with Kalanisi and the Tiznow race in the Breeders cup when Kinane lost his whip, much like Best Mate his achievements were fantastic but you would have to say on the numbers there were a few better than him.

Last point on this, but the way ratings work is that once a horse achieves a high rating (eg MM) then his future opponents are rated around his rating as that becomes the benchmark.

Personally I don't feel like we can directly compare how good horses were (directly) unless they raced each other. We can get an impression, and my impression is that BM was a superior horse to ED. It can never be proven without doubt, that's why it's pub talk.

All I can say in closing is that I was surprised myself with the ratings of them both and pretty much everyone would be in your camp as to who was the better, been a blast, have a good night

Very interesting reading, lads
What this forum should all be about, discussion backed up with facts and opinions

The problem with Best Mate (and indeed Altior, many years later) was that he couldn't be rated higher due to the relatively sub-par competition he encountered. He wasn't generally a horse that would win by huge distances, so I'd say he was possibly worth a few pounds more than his peak rating. I also think he should probably have beaten Florida Pearl in that King George, but his stamina wasn't proven at 3m in those days and he was ridden accordingly. As for Exotic Dancer, I'd argue that his strike-rate wasn't that great, even in races without Kauto. Eight wins from 29 starts while highly respectable, wasn't really good enough for a horse of his talent - he couldn't take advantage of Kauto's spill in Snoopy Loopy's Betfair Chase, for example.

Whilst I'm pleased to hear Imperial Commander get a mention (I feel that he never received enough credit for his GC win), I'd argue that both his and Long Run's Cheltenham Gold Cup wins might not be quite as good as the ratings suggest. Imperial always ran much better at Cheltenham than at other courses and KS and Denman were both 10 by this stage, and 11 when Long Run beat the duo in the GC. I'd also argue that Kauto was never as effective at Cheltenham than on flatter tracks such as Kempton or Haydock (his two Gold Cup wins being a testament to his huge natural ability, rather than a particular fondness for Cheltenham, in my opinion). So, yes, ratings are certainly a decent guide, but don't factor in a horse's fondness for certain tracks, distances, ground, etc.

I look at ratings the same way.

Iswearit, in relation to your posts, firstly I dont agree with you on Best Mate and particularly his Florida Pearl defeat, that for me was fair and a good indication of his best ability, it should be remembered that when winning his first gold cup Commanche Court made a bad mistake at a crucial time which could have altered the complexion of that race, likewise Marlborough's jump at the last when beaten By Best Mate probably cost him that race, in my opinion. With due regard to Exotic Dancer I was just interested in the fact he was rated higher than best mate even though he won nothing, he was a good horse but that's it.

In relation to Imperial Commander he was the easiest horse to get right, left handed, first time out or after a long break and loved Cheltenham, vary from that and it all went wrong as per the strange decision to run him in a King George, what was the thinking behind that I wonder, lets not forget that I was standing by the winning post when he beat Kauto in the betfair chase although somehow the non existent photo gave it to Kauto, not a conspiracy theorist at all but that's something I have never forgotten, your points regarding Long Run are valid as the big guys were getting on then, I also agree fully with you on Kauto and 3m2f in that his class won those races and that he was not an out and out stayer and was much better at Kempton, however in relation to Imperial Commanders Gold Cup when beating Denman, that horse had two races prior put up one of his best runs ever in winning the Hennessey and started 1-8 in his next race prior to the Gold Cup when unseating and went into the Gold Cup rated 182, to be fair in that last run he was nothing like himself and below his best in the Gold Cup but by how much who knows, my guess 7lbs.

Mind you even beating Denman at 7LB below his best is some achievement, best wishes.

roughly 4 -5 weeks till the festival and  gold cup and still 5 or 6/1 the field ,an open gold cup , some unproven at the trip and question marks with last years winner and gallopi  de champs seems not quite the force he was .already on heart wood at big prices on here but he could go ryanaire . i like a few pops at decent prices and  have been nibbling away at nick rocket at 140 -100/1 on here . a good grand national winner beating a grand national winner last year at aintree rated 169 and lightly raced and we may not have seen the pinacle of his ability yet, trip will be no problem won 8 from 14 and will line up a the freshest horse as this will be his first run this season having  missed a few engagements mainly imo  due to the ground . the national may be his main target who knows but in the right hands and ticks plenty of boxes and given the question marks of many at the head of the market looks fair value ew /win and place at 40s with the firms .good luck opinions encouraged.
selection nick rocket 40/1 ew bigger on here.

G/L with it.

..