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Horses can improve of course but over a career the ratings are an excellent guide to a horses ability, for instance the 175 Best Mate and the 177 Exotic Dancer are achieved over their whole career not on solitary runs and based on who they beat and how far year on year, those two marks are at their peaks and really its difficult to discount them on that basis.
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No, peak ratings are achieved via one performance. And that can be when conditions conspire/combine to create a high rating.
Master Minded might be a good example. |
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I'm not stating that people shouldn't look at official ratings and use them to classify ability. It just doesn't interest me. Perhaps it's a dichotomy my as working life (and a fair chunk of my private life) is dominated by numbers. But in racing I am mostly qualitative.
For example I know that Montjeu was the best 12f horse I've ever seen. I couldn't care less what his rating was, but I did get to see MJK lob past me on the way to the finishing line in Ascot lol. |
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Master Minded ran four times at a rating of 186, there was no one off with him, I agree one off performances can and do occur and can be outliers with due regard to other form especially on the flat, Hawk Wing is a prime example. but not so much over the jumps and in the case of Best Mate his peak career performance with him at his very best was when winning the Gold Cup beating Truckers Tavern 10L, for that his RPR was 178, whereas Exotic Dancer hit that mark four times in his career without winning anything, so either at a given peak or over a career he still comes out above Best Mate when handicapping them both and yet won next to nothing because he faced Kauto all season and Kauto at his peak. Finally without ratings how do you assess the quality of any graded race?
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Well I would have far more trouble in debating Montjeu than Best Mate as he is right up there when it comes to 12f at least in my lifetime, though not a favourite of mine his class and form is undeniable
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My favourite flat horse of all time was Giants Causeway, he really was the Iron Horse and yet his form in general was nothing amazing , he was consistent, tough and loved a fight, he did have three stand out performances, the two with Kalanisi and the Tiznow race in the Breeders cup when Kinane lost his whip, much like Best Mate his achievements were fantastic but you would have to say on the numbers there were a few better than him.
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Last point on this, but the way ratings work is that once a horse achieves a high rating (eg MM) then his future opponents are rated around his rating as that becomes the benchmark.
Personally I don't feel like we can directly compare how good horses were (directly) unless they raced each other. We can get an impression, and my impression is that BM was a superior horse to ED. It can never be proven without doubt, that's why it's pub talk. |
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All I can say in closing is that I was surprised myself with the ratings of them both and pretty much everyone would be in your camp as to who was the better, been a blast, have a good night
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Very interesting reading, lads
What this forum should all be about, discussion backed up with facts and opinions |
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The problem with Best Mate (and indeed Altior, many years later) was that he couldn't be rated higher due to the relatively sub-par competition he encountered. He wasn't generally a horse that would win by huge distances, so I'd say he was possibly worth a few pounds more than his peak rating. I also think he should probably have beaten Florida Pearl in that King George, but his stamina wasn't proven at 3m in those days and he was ridden accordingly. As for Exotic Dancer, I'd argue that his strike-rate wasn't that great, even in races without Kauto. Eight wins from 29 starts while highly respectable, wasn't really good enough for a horse of his talent - he couldn't take advantage of Kauto's spill in Snoopy Loopy's Betfair Chase, for example.
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Whilst I'm pleased to hear Imperial Commander get a mention (I feel that he never received enough credit for his GC win), I'd argue that both his and Long Run's Cheltenham Gold Cup wins might not be quite as good as the ratings suggest. Imperial always ran much better at Cheltenham than at other courses and KS and Denman were both 10 by this stage, and 11 when Long Run beat the duo in the GC. I'd also argue that Kauto was never as effective at Cheltenham than on flatter tracks such as Kempton or Haydock (his two Gold Cup wins being a testament to his huge natural ability, rather than a particular fondness for Cheltenham, in my opinion). So, yes, ratings are certainly a decent guide, but don't factor in a horse's fondness for certain tracks, distances, ground, etc.
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I look at ratings the same way.
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Iswearit, in relation to your posts, firstly I dont agree with you on Best Mate and particularly his Florida Pearl defeat, that for me was fair and a good indication of his best ability, it should be remembered that when winning his first gold cup Commanche Court made a bad mistake at a crucial time which could have altered the complexion of that race, likewise Marlborough's jump at the last when beaten By Best Mate probably cost him that race, in my opinion. With due regard to Exotic Dancer I was just interested in the fact he was rated higher than best mate even though he won nothing, he was a good horse but that's it.
In relation to Imperial Commander he was the easiest horse to get right, left handed, first time out or after a long break and loved Cheltenham, vary from that and it all went wrong as per the strange decision to run him in a King George, what was the thinking behind that I wonder, lets not forget that I was standing by the winning post when he beat Kauto in the betfair chase although somehow the non existent photo gave it to Kauto, not a conspiracy theorist at all but that's something I have never forgotten, your points regarding Long Run are valid as the big guys were getting on then, I also agree fully with you on Kauto and 3m2f in that his class won those races and that he was not an out and out stayer and was much better at Kempton, however in relation to Imperial Commanders Gold Cup when beating Denman, that horse had two races prior put up one of his best runs ever in winning the Hennessey and started 1-8 in his next race prior to the Gold Cup when unseating and went into the Gold Cup rated 182, to be fair in that last run he was nothing like himself and below his best in the Gold Cup but by how much who knows, my guess 7lbs. Mind you even beating Denman at 7LB below his best is some achievement, best wishes. |
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roughly 4 -5 weeks till the festival and gold cup and still 5 or 6/1 the field ,an open gold cup , some unproven at the trip and question marks with last years winner and gallopi de champs seems not quite the force he was .already on heart wood at big prices on here but he could go ryanaire . i like a few pops at decent prices and have been nibbling away at nick rocket at 140 -100/1 on here . a good grand national winner beating a grand national winner last year at aintree rated 169 and lightly raced and we may not have seen the pinacle of his ability yet, trip will be no problem won 8 from 14 and will line up a the freshest horse as this will be his first run this season having missed a few engagements mainly imo due to the ground . the national may be his main target who knows but in the right hands and ticks plenty of boxes and given the question marks of many at the head of the market looks fair value ew /win and place at 40s with the firms .good luck opinions encouraged.
selection nick rocket 40/1 ew bigger on here. |
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G/L with it.
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