George b knows his onions and puts em up at decent prices good write ups and sound reasoning .ok he is not doing so well this season but the past 2 or 3 seasons  his threads have seen him nicely  in profit .

I suppose that we should be guided by the tipping leagues in "your competitions" I don't do particularly well. It is so much harder when you can only choose one per day and of course the other 3 you bet on all win

Done it got the T.Shirt and said job done then retired.

Those were the days.  Up and down those Naps Comp divisions like a yo-yo.

I vote for kincsem.
Advised Solemia at 75 in the Arc.
Advised Torquator Tasso at 110 in the Arc.


on boards.ie advised
Watch Me in the Coronation Stakes at 32
Swordfighter in Queens Vase at 67
Galileo Gold in the 2000 at 18

Too many others to mention

Regards
kincsem

Sometimes you read things whose absurdity take your breath away.  This thread houses a few of them.  Amazing.

kincsem

When you coming on the L’Arc thread?

kincsem 29 Sep 25 15:17

I vote for kincsem.

post screenshot of your lifetime..enni good i'll be 1st to kon grat chew late ewe.

as you are new and have denied having a previous name on here, how do you remember him posting those?

Invariably, people will just see what they want to see.

What does on 'here' mean? If you are talking about this thread you could count on one hand the number of people who put up pre-race and even less if you add in a reasoned argument. If these quoted people are that good why not put the tips up on this thread so everyone can easily judge?

The nap competition is massively weighted to reflect the fixture list. Most days racing is rubbish, so if you have no desire to follow the dregs, particularly the all-weather, then unless you get lucky you really don't have much chance. How often is it decided with one big priced winner? Many will just attempt to stay where they are for three weeks, and perhaps have a little go once they are 'safe'. You could put up five places at double figures, and someone who puts up one winner at 1/5 would be better off. Crazy, as in the real world you would collect on the big prices. Betting is about selectivity, nobody in their right mind should be betting every day, but that's virtually how the competition works.

The real enjoyment should be about finding something yourself, not copying anyone else.

Galileo Gold in the 2000 at 18

Had that  @25/1 amongst others and your two in the Arc but @ 50/1 with the books as never used the exchange.

    Too many others to mention

Regards
kincsem


       

Delashay
kincsem
When you coming on the L’Arc thread?

I will not be posting.
My interest is breeding (see foalmare.com).
My horse in France (three places, one win this year) broke a bone last week and is on the easy list for four months.
I have a mare, yearling, foal in Co Kilkenny.
Earlier this year I had ten horses, reduced to four now (see above).
The 2025 foal is a cracker, on pedigree and physical, a leader and highly intelligent.
I expect great things from her.
I named her as I will not be putting her in the sales.

My initial analysis for any Arc -
Give each horse (19 this year) points for form, distance, pedigree, going.
3 points for good, 2 for average, 1 for bad.  Add up the points for each horse.
You end up with a short list of about five horses.
This forces you to assess each horse in the race, and not just pick a horse with a string of ones before its name.
Yes, that takes time, but if you want to win a decent amount you should invest some time.
When you have the short list only then look at the odds, mull over the options.

On fast ground draws 2 to about 7 are highly favoured (but it looks like soft this year).
I think draw 1 never does well as the horse jumps right and is then at a disadvantage.

Japanese horses run all their races on pancake flat wide oval tracks on firm going. (their tracks vary by only about 4 ot 5 feet in elevation).
Their runners are probably faster, but they are now running on slow tracks, with unfamiliar elevation changes, and less room.
Even better is they have a Japanese jockey.
They keep the horse at the back of the field and try to come with a late (too late) run on slow ground.
If they get their horse back in the 9th group they have given away perhaps 12 lengths.

On slow ground (often heavy at Longchamp) you MUST remember Longchamp is clay (gets very, very demanding).
If you do not know about clay soil it will pay to learn about it: like concrete when dry; like superglue when soft.
On Longchamp slow you must have a horse that gets 12f+ easily and is guaranteed on soft or softer.

Group 1 wins outside ENG, IRE (and FR?) are discounted by punters.
Why? They are Group races and the ratings bands are the same.

The Longchamp draw on soft or heavy has little effect.

I love heavy ground in the Arc.
Forget the form book. Forget the experts.
The Arc that Torquator Tasso won - it had been p****** down for days, the TV pundits were looking out the window at it p****** down outside, and were saying it might be soft at worst.
The TV people are too scared to separate themselves from the herd and have an opinion.

I am only putting this up to show my procedure.
It is not about picking winners, it is about getting paid (long term).
In a fast ground Arc low draws have it.
In a heavy ground Arc slow ground, 12f+ horses dominate.

If you look back at the 2020 Arc thread (heavy ground) you will see I picked 1st Sottsass; 2nd In Swoop and that was the finish (but I backed In Swoop beaten a neck).

Thank you for more insight Kincsem and I have your page bookmarked.

Sorry to hear about the loss and I recall from years gone by about you mentioning the clay and the effect of the draw. Also to note the number of stalls and the gap ;)

kincsem 29 Sep 25 15:17

I vote for kincsem.

post screenshot of your lifetime..enni good i'll be 1st to kon grat chew late ewe.

Do you all realise that THIS IS AN OPEN FORUM?

Did I ever need to be on Betfair to come on and read?

I’ve an idea of who’s who ans who knows their eggs.

Sandown I’ve Sid has always contributed on the Arc thread, as has Figgis. Kincsem and I ended up backing the same horses on occasions despite using completely different methods - so I’d look in to see what he was on and see if we were thinking the same.

That year In Swoop trained by Graffard had good form and was 50/1, seemed mad. Trapman even put it up.

I probably joined too late given with how I bet.

Updagunga slow your horses and refrain from fantasising about exposing moi!

I recall RingPiece putting up a Rouget good thing one day at a minor track. Not much interest is here in French racing, so the thread stood out for an onlooker ;)

Hey Rico you love the BBC!

So you’ve all been exposed posting on an open forum!

Or to rephrase it some have been exposing themselves and lack of knowledge on an open forum!