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Irish derby 16.10 curragh

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Replies: 179
By:
differentdrum
When: 30 Jun 25 16:15
Perhaps you should watch the race again as I just did. Even the commentator remarks on the horse being pushed along from the start.
By:
ponchoslament
When: 30 Jun 25 16:18
To get a position yeah, like most them, then he dropped it
And was left alone, to do what he wanted
By:
differentdrum
When: 01 Jul 25 10:15
The Merchant dream didn't last too long. Bookmakers win again without having to do anything. Obviously, I got Highclere wrong. A line through the Irish Derby puts him very close to already being the best 3yo with plenty more progression to come. Certainly more progression than Lambourn. It begs the question why even bother with the entry? He looks good enough to run, and they are still not running. What happened to the old spirit of taking a chance? More than likely will be odds on at Goodwood, and the race will prove very little.
By:
LoyalHoncho
When: 01 Jul 25 14:36
It puts him close, on paper, to the best 3yo not close to being the best 3yo, for whatever reason.
One of the Serious Contender form lines has to be open to question, imv, but which one.?
His second to Merchant also saw him beat Pantile Warrior, a horse with absolutely no classic pretensions, by a neck.
As for Merchant having “plenty more progression to come” after six runs and Lambourn to have little or no room for further progression after one more run would seem somewhat spurious.
By:
differentdrum
When: 01 Jul 25 14:42
Lambourn has fallen over the line in a Group 1, Merchant has won a Royal Ascot handicap. On that basis alone I would have thought it pretty obvious that Merchant has more progression in him. Lambourn can only progress within Group 1's.
By:
LoyalHoncho
When: 01 Jul 25 14:45
“Fallen” over the line?  Are you having a laugh?  “You would have thought”?
It will be interesting to see your evidence, if it ever materialises.
By:
differentdrum
When: 01 Jul 25 16:01
I backed Lambourn in both races, but I think you must have been watching a different race. For most of the straight it was touch and go whether he was even going to win. A far cry from the English version.

I would like to think my 'evidence' will be obvious to anyone as I would be very surprised if Merchant doesn't win something a little better than a handicap. Much more difficult to find the evidence that Lambourn improves. For me he has already taken a step backwards from Epsom to the Curragh.
By:
barstool
When: 01 Jul 25 16:08
Merchant 20-14-10/1 with 365 for the leger since Sunday.
By:
Delashay
When: 01 Jul 25 16:13
Either way Lambourn goes down a boring dual derby winner.

You bet AP you take your chances on whether connections will go for it, already said Haggas was the problemo to him running in the KG

Agree the Goodwood race and the the York one after is senseless, taking in two trials before you even get there! Nah for the Leger thanks!
By:
Delashay
When: 01 Jul 25 16:19
Add to it what HH says :

"He's very well after Ascot and the plan is very much to go to the Gordon, as long as William is happy with him, and then on to the Great Voltigeur at York's Ebor meeting," Herbert said. "It's possible he could be a St Leger horse and it's a fabulous race, but is going a mile and six the right move for him? We'll see. We have to take it one step at a time in mind for the future.

Gets beat in one of the trials and the Leger a bye bye!

Don’t you just hate all the bs? Say this race is the target or not!
By:
LoyalHoncho
When: 01 Jul 25 16:35
There you go again, “for most of the straight”.  For half of the straight he was embattled, for one, maybe two strides at a stretch he was levelled, then he showed his class to dig deep and gradually re-assert, to win well.  There is no doubt about the quality of the performance at all.
As for Merchant being sure to win a better forthcoming race than a handicap I say “no chit Sherlock”.  He’s hardly likely to be downgraded is he?
And, if “boring” is confirming your Derby win by winning the next one,…………….?
Gp1 winners can’t improve in the manner you suggest because there is no higher grade.  And, if Merchant is ever tried in a Group 1, and for me it is a big if, well possibly find out if he can improve.
Until then Lambourn is the double Derby winner of 2025 and, Serious Contender, the horse beaten by Merchant and who himself beat a horse who will never enter a Gp1 is the enigma.  At the moment Merchant is too.
By:
Delashay
When: 01 Jul 25 16:41
Yes boring, as in he doesn’t set anyone’s pulses racing unless they are on at odds on and see him almost get turned over by a stablemate.

Thats a fair thing to say as no one is currently talking him up for KG or Arc.
By:
Delashay
When: 01 Jul 25 16:43
DD hs backed two Daryz & Merchsnt and has had the hump ever since regarding their targets!

If the Dual Derby winner was exciting would he be looking elsewhere in races which he could yet take in?

You play AP you take your chances.
By:
LoyalHoncho
When: 01 Jul 25 16:45
I see things differently.  He drew on his gut reserves and proved he was the best on the day.  A different style of win but a classic win.  And, if classics and Gp1’s are boring then we’d best tell three hundred odd years of class assessment that their work is irrelevant.
By:
Delashay
When: 01 Jul 25 16:47
No doubting he’s a tough horse, exciting NO for the reasons given, untouched upon.

The Irish Derby a real Derby? Naaaah!
By:
Delashay
When: 01 Jul 25 16:49
You know very well there are group 1’s and then G1’s.

The Tatts has been floating on that verge for ages. Often a benefit for AOB’s older horses.
By:
Delashay
When: 01 Jul 25 16:54
And I’d go as far to say that he’s that unexciting that everyone in general turned their nose up after he beat Lazy Griff at Chester and got hoodwinked into looking for one sexier, as DD is doing.

Plenty wanted to believe that Lion was the comeback Kid part 3, or that Delacroix was overlooked and made fav for the Derby, whilst he sat the at 16/1.

Whilst winner of the worst Dante was 4/1.

Again he was given the sexier profile two from two. Also like Midak, but the form amounted to nothing.

Only now we see Lazy Griff had beaten a French Oaks winner at 2, that his last three runs weren’t flukes.
By:
LoyalHoncho
When: 01 Jul 25 16:55
Very exciting.  It is what competition is all about.  Bring out that extra which wins the prize.  See off all comers.
The horse has now won classics going right and left handed.  He has won by leading and seeing off all comers, the leading and coming again.
Nothing at all unexciting about that for me.  It may even turn out that going right handed makes him a little less effective.
Whatever he does next doesn’t make him ineffectual because we haven’t been told yet where he goes next.
He’s no Dancing Brave but then D.B. is no Lambourn.
Hugely interested in where Serious Contender goes next.  Can’t see them meeting again but never say never.
Be lucky.
By:
Delashay
When: 01 Jul 25 16:57
You’ve misread me, I was saying that it’d be nice to know whether they are aiming Merchant at the Leger.
By:
Delashay
When: 01 Jul 25 16:59
Seems you’re quite attached to the horse, can’t see that he isn’t sexy. Is he a sexy breeding prospect?

People were saying he’s more for the NH stud.

Think he can drop back to 10f?

No one has discussed that.
By:
LoyalHoncho
When: 01 Jul 25 17:00
Ok. 
What do they do with him?  Did he beat the same Serious Contender that turned up at the Curragh.?
Whatever he does Merchant will be subject to huge expectation.  By many.
By:
Delashay
When: 01 Jul 25 17:07
Yes you’ll all be on no doubt. Going into that Ascot handicap he had a good draw by stats, every dog was barking about him. Now they are trying g to put people away as to where he goes next.

The fellas on the RP preview had said that they prefer betting shorties in the Ascot handicaps, than the G1’s because it’s almost a gimmie (good thing) like a Mullins shorty in a handicap at Chelts.

Maybe Haggas knows the next step is a bigger one than punters expect because a 40/1 shot the night before gave the Derby winner a fright and franked the form from Ascot.

For me the Irish Derby looked an odd race, though we both said that the form was franked by LG TS.

T
Lambourn however didn’t ever look comfortable and I wonder - had said it above if the expected that big a run from SC.

Who I also said on that run would have gone close in Paris on the 13th July.

Who do they run there now? Because it’s sometimes the place where their Leger runners stretch their legs.
By:
Delashay
When: 01 Jul 25 17:09
As tough as Lambourn is I believe SC to be seriously tough. To run like that Ten days later, after he’d set a stern gallop at Ascot and looked like he might fold, only to go on and see it through.
By:
LoyalHoncho
When: 01 Jul 25 17:15
I agree.
By:
Delashay
When: 01 Jul 25 17:17
As for Merchant you’re asking where does he go?

I’d be going for the GROUP 1 Grand Prix De Paris and supping him.  Anything can go wrong in the interlude between now and Goodwood.

He’ll not face much there and they can always say didn’t travel well or whatever. Ambition that’s sexy or so I’ve heard!
By:
Delashay
When: 01 Jul 25 17:26
Take AOB he had a horse that was well and run it.
I can understand that they’d waver over taking on older horses with Merchant, but in France he’d face beaten horses from the PDJC. Camille P was given the lowest rating in years, but that’s misleading as he won cheeky.
Trinty C franked the form and was impressive I thought at Ascot, form that linked it to the Derby & Stanhope through Tornado Alert.

The Bradfords were brave with Connigree in the Gold Cup sometimes you have to be, but there’s other options.

Eccomics has been looked after but is missing, time waits for no man as they say.
By:
Delashay
When: 01 Jul 25 17:41
And that is a valid point which never or seldom gets discussed.
After the Eclipse it was a deft that COT would never do so again.

Have you seen the mile race around the tight right handed track in Craon where Lambourn won?
By:
LoyalHoncho
When: 01 Jul 25 18:26
Thanks Delashay, will have a look.
By:
ponchoslament
When: 01 Jul 25 18:32
Ffs, honcho, delahash, dont give up your day jobs, race readers you are
Certainly not Crazy
By:
LoyalHoncho
When: 01 Jul 25 18:34
Thank you so much.  Your valuable contributions are always eagerly devoured.  Then the body does its work.  Laugh
By:
ponchoslament
When: 01 Jul 25 18:37
Lambourne, will show up in ledger, if any race, he’s too slow for a king George
And an Arc, unless it bottomless. He’s a one paced sea horse, outstaying other one
3yo boats. Confirmed by the milky bar kid OB,

‘Hé might be a KG or Arc horse’, they will run him over in both races, if
There’s any good in going.

Jump stallion full stop
By:
howard
When: 01 Jul 25 18:43
Calandagan looks a good thing for KG on g/f   just bring him wide and he will do any  OB horse.
By:
ponchoslament
When: 01 Jul 25 18:44
Both Derbys were poor Races imo, long time since I watched both races
And found nothing in behin, hé got it his own way at Epsom, it was put it to
Him at the curragh, Beckett horse horse him at it 5 out, and he’s not much lop
Hé stumbled home all out, KG ARc, dont think so, in the French race, they wil
Just quicken past him, thé older horses ?? Thsts just my opinion, other opinions…,
By:
ponchoslament
When: 01 Jul 25 18:47
Calandagan looks a good thing for KG on g/f   just bring him wide and he will do any  OB horse.

Is he a touch soft Howard?? Travels, quickens, then flattens out?? A really fast 1m 1/4 ???
Jury’s out? If everything falls right, then Yezh
By:
LoyalHoncho
When: 01 Jul 25 18:50
Can’t see him doing the KG.  Can’t see him doing the Arc.  Might do the St Leger.  Can’t see him siring a County Hurdle winner.  Does look like he’ll stamp his stock with stamina.
Thank you once again for contributing to the discussion.
However all of the above is conjecture.  What is certain is that he has won two Derbys, the Irish in a time approaching three seconds faster than anything else on the day and 3.72 secs. faster than standard.
Not bad for a crab.
By:
Delashay
When: 02 Jul 25 10:41
Calandgan has a one long acceleration, as Dupre used to describe some of his stayers such as Americain, Dolniya, Shareta…. It’s a trait of the Aga horses.

I successfully bet against Calandagan  in the Sheema Turf because I knew he’d be held up and something else would get first run on him.

Pointed out the same would happen again despite a smaller field in the Coronation.

Race reading comes in handy before a race, hence two winners one being 14/1 who was doubled up with another @ 14/1  on World Cup night in the Dubai Turf, formally Duty Free. Grin
By:
Delashay
When: 02 Jul 25 10:44
As for talking up the French colt to take the KG you’re counting on him reversing form with one horse! Genius!

France last time was a good confidence booster and Goyen didn’t press Aventure.
By:
Delashay
When: 02 Jul 25 10:47
From Graffard direct from the Anti Post forum

Mickaël Barzalona had only one wish: “Not to be too far from Adventure.” And he succeeded. In the wake of Christophe Ferland’s mare, the jockey of the Aga Khan Studs had the one everyone considered their main rival in his line of sight and could ensure that she did not take too much field. But by focusing on a single opponent, Calandagan also took the risk of seeing the animator slip away when approaching the home straight.
By:
Delashay
When: 02 Jul 25 10:48
Nuff said! Laugh
By:
impossible123
When: 02 Jul 25 14:01
What price for Lambourn not seeing another racecourse in public? He's over-achieved courtesy of the inflated potentials by his connections of his tablemates ie The Lion In Winter and Delacroix. I think the prevailing fast ground at The Curragh was a significant influencer of the time recorded.

I think AOB was talking up his potential when he mentioned the King George and the ARC as possible targets.
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