Colin Keane > Betfair Community

Betfair Community

Home › Horse Racing Forum › Colin Keane

Switch to Community Classic App Directory

Horse Racing

‹ back to topics

There is currently 1 person viewing this thread.

These 118 comments are related to the topic:
Colin Keane

Switch to Live View refresh Post Reply

Post your reply

Page 2 of 3 • Previous | 1 | 2 | 3 | Next

sort by:

Show per page

Replies: 118

By:

MJK When: 13 Jun 25 16:23

Jun 13, 2025 -- 2:54PM, Itsfuntorun wrote:

What Matt is saying is Keane stinking the place out on those big race rides and not a word compared to Kieron Shoemark getting slaughtered ....

Chapman couldn't care one iota about those rides, though he's no doubt spent hours researching any poor Keane ride he could find. All he cares about is trying to justify his ridiculous championing of Shoemark as the next Piggott. That's what this is all about. He just can't accept that he was wrong.

By:

uptheirons When: 13 Jun 25 16:29

Shoemark is not fit to polish Keane's boots

By:

uptheirons When: 13 Jun 25 16:31

Every jockey (no matter how good) will ride the odd poor race

By:

Itsfuntorun When: 13 Jun 25 16:32

Jun 13, 2025 -- 4:23PM, uptheirons wrote:

Becket stated that he should not have run the horse in The King George.You are entitled to your opinion but I suspect Juddmonte might just be a better judge of a jockey than you.

I would have gave Rossa Ryan a go but fair enough i will leave it at that, no hard feelings, thats what forums are for.

By:

Itsfuntorun When: 13 Jun 25 16:34

Jun 13, 2025 -- 4:23PM, MJK wrote:

Jun 13, 2025 -- 2:54PM, Itsfuntorun wrote:What Matt is saying is Keane stinking the place out on those big race rides and not a word compared to Kieron Shoemark getting slaughtered ....Chapman couldn't care one iota about those rides, though he's no doubt spent hours researching any poor Keane ride he could find. All he cares about is trying to justify his ridiculous championing of Shoemark as the next Piggott. That's what this is all about. He just can't accept that he was wrong.

I suspect you are right MJK.

By:

uptheirons When: 13 Jun 25 16:34

Exactly,itsfuntorun.
Otherwise,we would all be trying to back the same horse

By:

uptheirons When: 13 Jun 25 16:36

Chapman,like McFatso before him are only interested in self promotion

By:

MJK When: 13 Jun 25 17:11

I find Shoemark a very decent bloke and wish him all the best in the future btw

By:

uptheirons When: 13 Jun 25 17:26

As do I,MJK

By:

Itsfuntorun When: 13 Jun 25 17:27

Jun 13, 2025 -- 5:11PM, MJK wrote:

I find Shoemark a very decent bloke and wish him all the best in the future btw

Fair play to you, i do as well, anybody who comes back from addiction problems has my respect, i was there my self, a terrible time, Keane a grand fella as well,
, But that irons fella, oh my god. Only joking uptheirons.

By:

Itsfuntorun When: 13 Jun 25 18:13

One last thing MJK, i detest Chapman.

By:

leif When: 14 Jun 25 14:43

Got out of jail there?

By:

punchestown When: 14 Jun 25 14:45

Got out of jail there?

--------

He did but many a jockey out there wouldn't have had the nous to get out of there in time,the way that race panned out he won a race he had no right to win.

By:

Cider When: 14 Jun 25 14:53

head on showed him in a good light, didn't even lift the whip. obviously needed a slice of good luck as well.

By:

punchestown When: 14 Jun 25 15:04

Kept his head and didn't barge his way out,he's been riding the pants off everyone in Ireland for the last few years and that takes a bit of doing and is an excellent jockey.

By:

wondersobright When: 14 Jun 25 15:09

actually the figs suggest otherwise 2020 onwards

today
boxed in far rail on sprint track, hooked off the rail push button acceleration just got there
all about the horse imo

By:

uptheirons When: 14 Jun 25 15:13

Nonsense wonders.
The horse needs covering up and as such is a hostage to fortune at Sandown but that's the way it needs riding.
He kept his cool and was value for more

By:

punchestown When: 14 Jun 25 15:24

actually the figs suggest otherwise 2020 onwards

----

Champion jockey in Ireland the last 4 years???

By:

wondersobright When: 14 Jun 25 15:32

you rate jockeys by winner totals?

By:

Itsfuntorun When: 14 Jun 25 15:41

Jun 14, 2025 -- 3:04PM, punchestown wrote:

Kept his head and didn't barge his way out,he's been riding the pants off everyone in Ireland for the last few years and that takes a bit of doing and is an excellent jockey.

Ryan Moore says hello...

By:

uptheirons When: 14 Jun 25 15:41

There are posters on here who would have thought Lester Piggott wasn't top class.
Would it make them right?

By:

punchestown When: 14 Jun 25 15:42

you rate jockeys by winner totals

-------------

Do you watch Irish flat racing?

By:

wondersobright When: 14 Jun 25 15:44

do you rate jockeys by winner totals?

this time try not to answer with another question

By:

Cider When: 14 Jun 25 15:45

The problem is if you use expectation, the top jockeys, including Keane tangibly impact the sp. So it's self perpetuating. If Moore rode the Derby winner, what would the sp have been?

By:

wondersobright When: 14 Jun 25 15:46

Jun 14, 2025 -- 3:45PM, Cider wrote:

The problem is if you use expectation, the top jockeys, including Keane tangibly impact the sp. So it's self perpetuating. If Moore rode the Derby winner, what would the sp have been?

clearly would have been much shorter but that's a different issue altogether as its perceived pecking order of stablemates

By:

punchestown When: 14 Jun 25 15:47

The question was rhetorical,I don't rate jockeys by their winner totals but by their abilities,you stated the statistics stated otherwise I just queried what are you talking about?

By:

wondersobright When: 14 Jun 25 15:49

By:

Cider When: 14 Jun 25 15:50

It's an extreme example but a horse without Moore could go off at 4/1 and with him jocked up 5/2.

That form of analysis assumes the sp reflects the true chance over hundreds of tests. But it doesn't really. Keane will nearly always be over bet.

By:

impossible123 When: 14 Jun 25 15:50

He rode a stinker on White Birch when behind Los Angeles in Ireland.

By:

wondersobright When: 14 Jun 25 15:53

try a horse like the teal horse in the lockinge

went off 2/1 fav

what price do you think that goes off if rossa ryan keeps the ride?

By:

Cider When: 14 Jun 25 15:53

And it's right that the market reflects who the jockey is. But in the long run, it won't accurately be reflected in the outcomes (imho).

By:

punchestown When: 14 Jun 25 15:57

punchestown • June 14, 2025 3:47 PM BST
I don't rate jockeys by their winner totals

punchestown • June 14, 2025 3:24 PM BST
Champion jockey in Ireland the last 4 years

so what are you quoting them for then?

---------------
The only reason I mentioned that was because you said "actually the figs suggest otherwise 2020 onwards",what figures are you talking about?

By:

wondersobright When: 14 Jun 25 15:58

Jun 14, 2025 -- 3:50PM, Cider wrote:

It's an extreme example but a horse without Moore could go off at 4/1 and with him jocked up 5/2. That form of analysis assumes the sp reflects the true chance over hundreds of tests. But it doesn't really. Keane will nearly always be over bet.

that lockinge had moore, murphy, buick, rossa ryan, marquand, shoemark, levey, SDS
hannon 2 runners but essentially no pecking order information revealed by the jockey bookings

its not giving moore 8.5% upgrade imo (5/2 from 4/1)

By:

Cider When: 14 Jun 25 15:58

The Lockinge market reflected that several of the prominent runners were expected to come on for the race.

I just think it's impossible for those types of jockeys to beat expectation as there mere presence on the horse impacts the expectation. A Frankie, Moore, Murphy, Keane.

By:

wondersobright When: 14 Jun 25 15:59

simply is not in the figures as he's not above those 7 riders to that extent & not even above some of them
otherwise moore is a blanket lay all rides

By:

uptheirons When: 14 Jun 25 16:01

Keane winning the title 4 years in a row is an achievement and is a world apart from when the very average Joseph O'Brien doing so under the nepotistic Coolmore

By:

Cider When: 14 Jun 25 16:01

its not giving moore 8.5% upgrade imo (5/2 from 4/1)

Not every race, as the market will gravitate to the correct prices generally. Definitely there will be that type of differential in early trading.

If it was that easy we could lay them all!

By:

wondersobright When: 14 Jun 25 16:01

dancing gemini what price with rossa ryan?

By:

uptheirons When: 14 Jun 25 16:02

There are lies,damn lies and statistics

By:

Cider When: 14 Jun 25 16:03

Don't know off the top of my head. As I alluded to that particular market was significantly influenced by the weakness of runners having their first run of the season.