MOORES derby ride

liw^

yes LIW, sorweee

The Dante was four days ago, it’s a bit soon to have made that decision isn’t it?

There’s 23 days between the two races and the last piece of work wouldn’t have been done.

Immediately after the Dante Aiden said, “it’ll be next week ten days, there could be an awful lot of improvement”

Also said , “He feels very classy he’d have no problem going back to a mile and a quarter…”

How far is the Dante? -  He’s talking like it was a mile and a half!!!

I think connection will want TLIW to run at Epsom to enhance his stud valuation/breeding fee. At the moment without a prestigious Gp1 8f triumph eg 2000G Epsom is the most suitable option available for this; the French Derby does not either. Also, Epsom and French Derby are only separated by a day thus no advantage for TLIW timewise; SJP does not appeal either being 8f. The Eclipse is in July.

If sound TLIW will most likely end up here with Moore riding, I'd think.

Be careful you’re not hoping for the best because of bets already placed  I understand all f the above re: breading just seems off to me.

They NEVER decide before.the last piece of work. Three days have hardly passed to say he’s bang there for that, it wasn’t a race, he’d of had more at home.

I’ve not had a bet so have no monetary interest, I asked on the anti post if anyone has re - watched the Dante?

* four days

Moore will ride what he is told to

What did you make of the Dante

Maybe he will,  they rely a lot on his feed back from what I can see.

Delacroix’s trial was a  27 day gap
Lion 23

So there’s not much to it, could be a lot is being made of close proximity of the Dante.

The other trial runners have had more time,

Second guess this Firm at your peril

Delacroix has a relatively speedy pedigree being by Dubawi X Tepin. My interpretation here is someone thinks he'll go French Derby which is 2 furlongs shorter and therefore Moore will ride TLIW at Epsom

May 19, 2025 -- 10:34PM, uptheirons wrote:

Second guess this Firm at your peril

There’s been no attempt to with these eels, I’ve asked for opinions on the race itself (Dante) and the proximity to the Derby, non of which anyone seems to want to discuss.

May 19, 2025 -- 10:55PM, ASonOfWottonBassett wrote:

Delacroix has a relatively speedy pedigree being by Dubawi X Tepin. My interpretation here is someone thinks he'll go French Derby which is 2 furlongs shorter and therefore Moore will ride TLIW at Epsom

That was pointed out on the anti post forum by ElisJohn, who felt he’d head to the Jockey Club. I felt he was a false fav on form anyway.
I recall Tepin think she ran in the Queen Anne one of the Americans to do so along with Animal Kingdom.

I’m no pedigree watcher, but I know that there’s the negative regarding Dubawi and derby.

Either way he’s a false fav for the French version and I’m glad that he now tops the market, I’ll be looking elsewhere.

The Dante winner will improve a lot so Coolmore better pray.

uptheirons 19 May 25 22:34 
Second guess this Firm at your peril

Wow ! You got that right ‘ firm’…..like some gangster mob….

I’d recommended anyone with a recording of the Dante fromITV to rewatch. O’Brien had a touch of the Biden about him maybe the pressure or it was difficult to keep telling the lies.

Before the race he contracted himself to Richi saying , “He’ll improve a lot for the run, er (unknown indecisive ) he won’t improve a lot.”

Quite amusing to see him so shifty!

Ed the tooth said just before the off that if Lion flopped he didn’t think he’d be going . Straight after said on the back of that I doubt we’ll see him.
Followed up by Holles saying I don’t think he’ll go and whereas O’Brien has done it before, he felt that there wasn’t enough time In between the two races.

As Moore had indicted uncharacteristically regarding the Musidora the day before.

And four days later there’s a big gamble and shift!

“We'll see how they're all working, talk to Ryan and decide.” Can only assume he out-sped the Range Rover!

(Ryan’s input is vital)

As a backer and fan of Damysus , I havent that much interest in the O'brien saga , but had yet another look at the Dante and thought Ryan made a real meal of the 'incident ' 2f out , bumping in the saddle .. . Yes the horse hung and also carries his head a bit high , but he didnt look like he had any acceleration till he got a clip with the whip .Having said that it was a very educational ride .

May 20, 2025 -- 9:11AM, paulo47 wrote:

As a backer and fan of Damysus , I havent that much interest in the O'brien saga , but had yet another look at the Dante and thought Ryan made a real meal of the 'incident ' 2f out , bumping in the saddle .. . Yes the horse hung and also carries his head a bit high , but he didnt look like he had any acceleration till he got a clip with the whip .Having said that it was a very educational ride .

Thanks Paul I agree with you whole heartedly, I felt Damysus was unlucky not to win by the way he was ridden. He’s also being educated too though to a degree.

At the end of the day either TLIW or Delacroix or both will end up at Epsom on 7th June. The rest are conjecture base don personal opinions. Nevertheless, the market has been proven correct more times than wrong on history. As such, not prudent to put all your eggs in one basket if you're a fan of either TLIW or Delacroix. The fans of other protagonists will be hoping neither will show up for obvious reasons.

Keep it simple. All will be revealed in about 2.5 weeks' time. Some here will be luckier than others. Good luck!

I respect your opinion Impossible but it’s important to have an opinion especially about Delacroix, who’s being made false favourite for two races, Group Ones, having only beaten stablemates at home.

Thanks for reminding us about how far away the race is 2.5 weeks.

"What I would say is that 12 hours is a long time in a racehorse's life, never mind 72. I'm not complaining as that is what they've decided to do and they have their reasons, but it wouldn't have been our preference to do something like that.”
The man himself.

I don’t follow the markets like the sheeple, favourite backing for me isn’t a fun game to play. We all have our ways however.

There’s an old reggae song by Burning  Spear called  - It Is Good - he sings, “It is good when a man can think for himself…”

Regretably,sentiments wasted on implausible

Good luck to all that have had a bet already, I’ll sit tight and be looking at the French version next.

Paulo47, I thought Damysus got a very poor ride in the Dante, though nothing was made of it. Jumped smartly and instead of taking advantage of that to get a position in say 4th or 5th the jockey allowed the horse to drift back through the field to 3rd last. 3f out he was still there, only making a move after the favourite had started his run. Had to move out to come widest of all then too much to do. Must have a fine chance in the Derby if getting a better run. Hope you are on at a good price.
Has Gosden named a rider yet?

Think Moore will be on the TLIW.

Love it everyone’s opening up now! But you’re correct he was given a dud ride, nada said but oh he was unlucky!  Looked like there was a bit to work with also, has a great temperament too.
Doyle the retained rider might be back by then.

I dont remember horses Being Shyte the Run before the Derby and then winning the Derby back in the Day

Is the new way forward for Aiden and the Lads

^^
This is another reason why antepost is virtually "deaded". Trainers and bookies are treating punters with contempt and as non-entity in horseracing,.

Coolmore make it very difficult tbh….horrible outfit imv

all about the paddocks for THE LADS and if they thought the only danger to LIW was DELA you can rest assured DELA wouldn't be running

TLIW needs to win a prestigious G1 race eg Epsom Derby/KG&QE2/Eclipse/Juddmonte to justify his probable lofty stud value/fee; The French or the Irish Derby just will not do. And, The ARC is a no go race for a probable Champion or highest rated 3yr old colt for Coolmore.

Averaged 35 Barstool , I wasnt wholly convinced about Sandown , so added a bit more after York , but just nice to see progress . TBF am not absolutely convinced about any of them acting round Epsom so will add something else nearer the time . My formline isnt great mind , Pour Moi my only winner until forever remembered Wings of Eagles (ap post Chester ).

Good luck. Can lay off your stake on the day at least.

What’s going on here then? Delacroix blue across the boards, magic sign biggest on the Lion!

I hope Coolmore would run TLIW and Delacroix and a pacesetter; TLIW would have the beating of Ruling Court, assuming both stay the distance equally well; Ruling Court would have the beating of Delacroix on last season's form.

But, TLIW is very unlikely French Derby bound.

May 23, 2025 -- 1:04PM, Delashay wrote:

What’s going on here then? Delacroix blue across the boards, magic sign biggest on the Lion!

What a dastardly bunch of

With the fake plunge on the Lion days after the Dante, Delacroix was allowed to drift to 11/2

May 19, 2025 -- 8:24PM, Delashay wrote:

Immediately after the Dante Aiden said, “it’ll be next week ten days, there could be an awful lot of improvement” Also said , “He feels very classy he’d have no problem going back to a mile and a quarter…” How far is the Dante? -

I’d not be surprised if he actually meant a mile!

O'Brien, however, feels that improvement will be forthcoming, and said: "Everything has gone well with The Lion In Winter since the Dante. He's in good form, but we haven't looked for too much off him yet. We had to give him a chance to recover from York. He's done one or two bits, but the main bits of work will be later this week and early next week.”

From the RP 27th May

Yet the “gamble” came within four days of his dire Dante run!

If Coolmore is running 3 then confidence is not good esp with no pacesetters; Delacroix may be the hare for the other 2 runners.

The Lion In Winter has the class and ability to beat Ruling Court again, assuming both horses have the same chance of staying 12f. Both trainers are adamant and fairly confident The Derby distance is within their compass.

On the other hand Delacroix may have the best Irish form, but he does not have the class, or the potential to beat Ruling Court, assuming both horses stay 12f just as well; Delacroix won The Ballysax over 10f with Lambourne finishing the best and 2.25l 3rd to Delacroix.

I think Moore could surprise AOB and opt for The Lion In Winter if the horse's fitness and progress since The Dante are assured; Lambourn could surprise Delacroix and overturn The Ballysax result.

I think that Aiden O’Biden and co are a scobey bunch.

Uncouth for me, and self-interest foremost.

Would be nice to see both of the Guineas winners go in again.

Both Guineas winners winning The Oaks and Derby will make my Flat season. I know it's early, but it will. Something even Coolmore will find it extremely difficult to match.   

I'd like to see Mr Doone cough up £1m bonus post The Ledger for Ruling Court too.

I backed The Lion In Winter for the Derby after he won his maiden. I was forced to back him for the 2,000 Guineas after the Acomb with O'Brien going on about how quick he was. Since he then missed engagements for seemingly not very much I think that things have probably been worse than the trainer has let on. His pre-season comments were a disaster for anyone who had backed him for any race. There was zero encouragement in the Dante run. On that he should be a 20/1 shot for the Derby. Who initiated the 'gamble' a few days after the Dante. Bookmakers must have been rubbing their hands. Delacroix has been beaten plenty of times, his form is nothing special and he is a doubtful stayer. I wouldn't be rushing to back either O'Brien horse, whoever rides.

May 27, 2025 -- 2:44PM, impossible123 wrote:

Both Guineas winners winning The Oaks and Derby will make my Flat season. I know it's early, but it will. Something even Coolmore will find it extremely difficult to match.

Have you backed both horses Impossible, despite having concerns over them staying the trip? Or would it make your season just to see the double pulled off by Godolphin?

No, I haven't. I'd like to see Appleby and Godolphin deliver a double whammy to the uncouth Coolmore clan. Indeed. Even better when the child snatcher is still persona non grata at British racecourses.

If Moore is on Delacroix my money would be on Ruling Court and Lambourn; my ante on The Lion In Winter is green, with stakes back in my satchel.

If Delacroix wins he'll soon be forgotten like Wings Of Eagle or Serpentine.

Is the lion are gonna.
Ronnie.

what a Carry on by coolmore

Apparently, out to 10/1. Doesn't it beg the question as to who supported him after the Dante disaster? That never looked right. At the time O'Brien raised no negatives then all of a sudden.... Big questions regarding O'Brien's contributions throughout this saga, particularly if he doesn't even turn up. I doubt he has ever got close to admitting what has gone wrong since the Acomb. Not that he probably cares two hoots. It always seemed likely that the bookmakers would cop the lot.

delacroix drifted to around 8/1 on here last week , and lambourn im 90% certain was around 40s

I think The Lion In Winter will be retired. I think a bulletin to say the horse has picked up an injury post work, and he'll not make The Derby. I do not think it will be a "he stepped on a stone" excuse.

Happy Retirement The Lion In Winter!

May 19, 2025 -- 8:06PM, Delashay wrote:

The Dante was four days ago, it’s a bit soon to have made that decision isn’t it? There’s 23 days between the two races and the last piece of work wouldn’t have been done.

It’s like in a market creating false interest with plants to make up numbers to form a crowd! To draw the people like they were drawn to this gamble.

May 19, 2025 -- 8:54PM, Delashay wrote:

Be careful you’re not hoping for the best because of bets already placed

Do people think that he’ll (Lion In Winter) be retired or targeted elsewhere?

the greatest horse theyve ever had, but got an injury, you see it coming

I’d watched his interviews pre and post Dante where he seemed flustered.

Saying as I posted :

Also said , “He feels very classy he’d have no problem going back to a mile and a quarter…”

How far is the Dante? -  He’s talking like it was a mile and a half!!! Shocked

Was that a semi Frauduan slip potentially telling us that he would drop back to a mile?

He bet the horse that won the Guineas looks like a miler to me, ran with speed in the Dante… then found zilch!

Anyone remember this?

By Marcus Armytage from the Telegraph

However, if ever racing needed a gentle reminder that a genius walks among us then it was not just the victory of Circus Maximus in the St James’s Palace, an eighth win in the race for O’Brien, but the fact that the colt was in the race at all.

It is not unique for a horse to run in the Derby and then win the St James’s Palace, but the timing is tight, the Derby often exacts a heavy toll on a horse, and it is unconventional to drop back from a mile and a half to a mile in one hit.

And although O’Brien credited the colt’s owners for the 11th-hour decision to supplement the horse for the race minutes before the deadline, the idea was so far out of the box it can only have come from the trainer. “His point was that he was not far behind Phoenix of Spain as a two-year-old, stick a pair of blinkers on him [to make up the distance] and that just about sums it up,” said John Magnier, the Coolmore  supremo.

Missing the derby gives him time and that might be all that he needs. The SJP looks weak and I’ve doubts about Mattisse over the stiff mile.

*beat

His comments after York bore no resemblance to the actual performance. Then a few days later we had the ridiculous gamble. Far more chance of him winning nothing at all than popping up at Royal Ascot over a shorter trip. Right now you would have to be desperate to back him for anything.

I tend to think they thought  he was coming to himself after the Dante run but he has gone backwards.

I very much doubt you will see him again.

Thank you for your opinions, I felt anyone backing him for Epsom only four days after the Dante was desperate.

They have no shame when there’s money to made. Only won a Group 3 as said to Impossible on the anti post he’s been talked up and up.
Maybe he’s earnt ‘em enough and you’ll be right. More talk, never seen again. Shame was a lovely looking horse, reminded me in his face of his sire.

Sky Bet and Betfair/Paddy Power all suddenly went 12/1 yesterday, but are now 7/1. Maybe they should explain themselves?

What is there to explain ? They followed the exchange , as they always do.

Chapman covered the topic this morning by saying he texted Aidan and received a reply stating The Lion is all systems go for next week.

Thank god more and more punters are beginning to realize that AP betting is a mugs guessing game , that said the volume of AP business is far far less than people imagine and shrapnel in comparison.

Believe what you see not what you hear.


Good luck today all     

I would say plenty to explain unless you are saying every other bookmaker takes no notice of the exchanges which seems hard to believe.

I thought that with the Derby a week away that he should have opened the show talking about the going’s on, rather than looking at some spam fritter in Ireland asking if there was anything dodgy going on there.
Twice this horse has yoed, just gets a brief mention and tells us that the trainer likes moji’s!

Lame as!

I believe in the old days the stables of some Derby runners would open their doors to the media. Now, even with a mega drifter of a shortie from the no 1 stable it has not initiated a "visit" from any media to establish the well-being of the shortie.

In the past this would be considered a courtesy or even a duty to horseracing and punters. Now, the latter is merely fodder for the sport and the stables/individuals involved. Money is the ultimate goal, not integrity.

And in that or the lack of, is what is wrong in so many things. Apart from moral abandonment within society.

May 19, 2025 -- 8:24PM, Delashay wrote:

Immediately after the Dante Aiden said, “it’ll be next week ten days, there could be an awful lot of improvement” Also said , “He feels very classy he’d have no problem going back to a mile and a quarter…” How far is the Dante? -

Delashay • May 19, 2025 8:24 PM BST
Immediately after the Dante Aiden said, “it’ll be next week ten days, there could be an awful lot of improvement”

Also said , “He feels very classy he’d have no problem going back to a mile and a quarter…”

How far is the Dante? -  He’s talking like it was a mile and a half!!! Shocked

Hands up if you backed the lion for Epsom?!

No one want to done heresy anything!

*no one want to come here and say anything!

Ie no one wants to admit they fell for the fake gamble and the lies!

I'd The Lion In Winter as the culmination selection of many trebles and accas. The price contraction prior to The Dante made it a good opportunity to lay him. I think quite a few who missed out on Auguste Rodin and City Of Troy developed "fomo" and jumped-in blindly.

The hotpots of Coolmore eg Fairy Godmother, Bedtime Story, Lake Victoria, The Lion In Winter, Twain, Henri Matisse, Camille Pissarro all did not make The Guineas. It was a bonus year for bookies.

i had a market on the race , and yes i backed lion at 3.5 and    on around 10s, i backed lambourn best around 12, though it did hit around 40s about a week ago, i also layed the lion prior dante  , i actually had a green book on all runners in the end, tennesse stud would have been  my big winner along the gns winner, , but i made profit of approx 300 quid on  race , ps layed delecroix at arond 5/2 and backed him back around the 8s, but i also backed the lion for the dante and took a hit of couple of hundred , so my overall profit was around £100

All that effort and time for £100. I made about the same. It could not match minimum wage. And, it's getting increasingly more difficult. I cannot see building a portfolio before King George at Kempton. At the moment I can only identify candidates for the SJP/Coronation/KG. Even Royal Ascot is a minefield apart from the SJP and Coronation Stakes.

ill start leger when ,market comes up here, ive already started arc by laying the omara hores last week at 14s,

Dela is now a confirmed judgemental,self righteous moron as his post race view of the winner of the Oaks showed also

This thread both dumbfounds and disappoints me. For god's sake, these are racehorses we are talking about. If every horse did exactly what we expected, there would be no betting on them!! And, yes, AOB keeps stuff quiet, as he entitled to on behalf of his owners.

But why there is so much dismay about the poor showing of the more fancied two O'Brien horses I do not know. Lion In Winter had a very good class Gp3 to his name from last August but was poor in the Dante after a long layoff. Also, Ryan Moore looked elsewhere, so who wanted to back LIW with those credentials? At least City of Troy and Augustus Rodin were Gp1 proven 2yo's.

As for Delacrolx, stamina doubts, a busy 2yo campaign (not that usual with modern Derby winners) and a late drift on here from much too short a price anyway.

Now, I did not play in the race because I did not fancy the third AOB horse either, Pride of Arras had not done enough in what looked like a weak Dante, Ruling Court looked like a miler to me, the French horse was supplimented, possibly because the race was named in the late AK's name and not because of ability. So, what else was there?

What ended up as an 18 runner race looked ripe for a punter's graveyard given all the doubts and issues. Even the fact it was 18 runners was a sign of it being a hard find.

Just because it is the Derby does not mean everyone has to bet in it...

I asked for opinions about the Dante - you were all welcome to give them before the Derby was run!

Some are more interested to call names from behind a screen rather than engage in race debate before the big race. Others just lurk and read, I hope those who did read saved themselves from backing half the top end of the market.

As warned there were a lot of eggs from the Dante in the bookies basket ready to be smashed.

I was happily in the bar on two that weren’t mentioned before I’d put them up on the Anti post threads, with reasons for their selection.

NEW GROUND 50/1 EW & TENNESSEE STUD 66/1 EW

Yeah ew is for fools.

uptheirons • May 19, 2025 9:51 PM BST
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Delashay • May 19, 2025 9:57 PM BST
What did you make of the Dante

Fool here , always do some dross , griff-100 Tennessee-65 New Order-75 all win only with pennies .My major bets were both Dante's and as I posted , ' it could have been a dog race ' . We pay to learn . But thanks for the thread Delashay , very enjoyable this year .

NO REPLY!

A coward can’t put together more than one sentence or their head on the line and risk loosing online face before anything happens!!  can only petty name call, probably due to short little span of attention!

You were all asked about Dante.

Jun 9, 2025 -- 8:36AM, paulo47 wrote:

Fool here , always do some dross , griff-100 Tennessee-65 New Order-75 all win only with pennies .My major bets were both Dante's and as I posted , ' it could have been a dog race ' . We pay to learn . But thanks for the thread Delashay , very enjoyable this year .

Thanks Paul I’m glad you enjoyed, my humour and way isn’t for all and there’s always the block button. It works both ways.

youve got to love all those who spend 24/7 364 days a yr telling us ryan moore is one of greatest jocks of all time, very rarely gets it wrong in group ones and is now basicaly an idiot for riding a horse who hasnt trained on despite pishing up in 2 races this season and wouldnt stay in a horse box apparently,maybe moore should thnk about a change of career

You’re not a fan then?!

May 27, 2025 -- 9:55AM, Delashay wrote:

May 19, 2025 --  8:24PM, Delashay wrote:Immediately after the Dante Aiden said, “it’ll be next week ten days, there could be an awful lot of improvement” Also said , “He feels very classy he’d have no problem going back to a mile and a quarter…” How far is the Dante? -

Funny that!

May 27, 2025 -- 9:56AM, Delashay wrote:

I’d not be surprised if he actually meant a mile!

Can we measure his hooter to see if it’s grown since he made these comments!

Uptheirons forum default:  “everyone’s a moron”.
What a sad person.
Thanks for all your posts delashay.  Always welcome.

Cheers man, I smelt the rat back then and it’s nice that the vibe didn’t lie. What a scobey bunch!