There is currently 1 person viewing this thread.
27 Apr 25
10:37
Joined:
Date Joined:
01 Apr 25
Good morning Guys,
A new belated lay thread, the concept i originally started in April 2018 and have repeated every year since since. The past 2 years have been abysmal from my part, notwithstanding very few selections, generally for lack of time due to workload and also losing my posting rights twice. Although the P/L selections reduced dramatically, the thread content didn't and there were winners (and losers) not only from myself, but others that actually like to discuss horse racing. I really appreciate all efforts from those involved and the thread per se is still popular, even if the forum isn't what it was.
The lay selection format is based on only one post in any given day (to prevent chasing) bookmaker odds of 5/2 or under and matched to win a stake of £50 (not liability). For transparency i will post the P/L status and everything will be recorded on this thread only, as always.
Overall, the threads are in profit (breakdown below) but if Timeform rated me, the term 'regressing' would be mentioned and duly warranted as can be seen.
. 2018 was a good year, although i was home convalescing for several weeks so i had far more time on my hands then.
Lay Threads Record
Andrews Daily Lay Thread 2018 (Spring/Summer)
Total 66 selections
Success 55/66
Strike rate 83%
Thread profit +£1657
Andrews Daily Lay Thread 2018 (late Summer/Winter)
Total 64 selections
Success 46/64
Strike rate 72%
Thread profit +£425
Andrews Random Daily Lay Thread 2019
Total 78 selections
Success 55/78
Strike rate 70%
Thread profit +£219
Andrews Random Lay Thread 2020
Total 36 selections
Success 25/36
Strike rate 69%
Thread profit +£79
Andrews 2021 Lay Thread
Total 28 selections
Success 18/28
Strike rate 64%
Thread profit +£0.50
Andrews 2022 Lay Thread
Total 18 selections
Success 10/18
Strike rate 55%
Thread Loss -£202.50
Andrews 2023 Lay Thread
Total 6 selections
Success 2/6
Strike rate 33%
Thread Loss -£362.50
Andrews 2024 Lay Thread
Total 6 selections
Success 2/6
Strike rate 33%
Thread loss -£169
My posting this year will be mainly at weekends or free days. As always sensible contributions are more than welcome, but sadly we've lost a few in recent years and we all know the situation with The Anorak (Alan Potts) who often posted on my threads.
I'm currently in London for a couple of days and off to Dublin early tomorrow morning. My syndicate horse Agouti Bear has been taken out of the Naas card (5.40) tomorrow, but could be running next Sunday. I'm still going to Naas and Punchestown on Tuesday, so not a wasted trip by any means.
On to this afternoon, a quality card at Longchamp with a Listed and 3 Group races, including the G1 Prix Ganay. A small, but select field of 6, closely matched on RPR in fact only 5lb between the field, although French ratings have the top 3 on 119 (converted). The highest of these on RPR is the improving 4 year old Man Of Stars (134) and my idea of the winner. Course winner LTO over 1/2 a furlong shorter, won well, last 300 metre sections were good and should be fitter than his main rival Sosie. Only beaten once in 6 runs, the trainer is one of the best, if not the best over there (44% strike rate last 14 days) with Mickael Barzalona, although sometimes a little too confident, can certainly ride. I expect Man Of Stars to continue his upward trends towards the Arc and i'm a backer today.
Canderleri from the same stable could win again (1.33).
My 22/1 AP selection for last years Arc Aventure (finished 2nd) also runs on the same card. She's decent, has a turn of foot, but it will be more difficult as a 4 year old filly of course. I've already backed her for this years Arc, albeit small and only because of odds in the mid 20's. I doubt i will back either of these for today.
There's also a G3 race at Krefeld in Germany with a Archie Watson/Hollie Doyle runner who could pick up some euros, but i'm not suggesting he will win
Good luck and have a nice Sunday all.
A new belated lay thread, the concept i originally started in April 2018 and have repeated every year since since. The past 2 years have been abysmal from my part, notwithstanding very few selections, generally for lack of time due to workload and also losing my posting rights twice. Although the P/L selections reduced dramatically, the thread content didn't and there were winners (and losers) not only from myself, but others that actually like to discuss horse racing. I really appreciate all efforts from those involved and the thread per se is still popular, even if the forum isn't what it was.
The lay selection format is based on only one post in any given day (to prevent chasing) bookmaker odds of 5/2 or under and matched to win a stake of £50 (not liability). For transparency i will post the P/L status and everything will be recorded on this thread only, as always.
Overall, the threads are in profit (breakdown below) but if Timeform rated me, the term 'regressing' would be mentioned and duly warranted as can be seen.
. 2018 was a good year, although i was home convalescing for several weeks so i had far more time on my hands then. Lay Threads Record
Andrews Daily Lay Thread 2018 (Spring/Summer)
Total 66 selections
Success 55/66
Strike rate 83%
Thread profit +£1657
Andrews Daily Lay Thread 2018 (late Summer/Winter)
Total 64 selections
Success 46/64
Strike rate 72%
Thread profit +£425
Andrews Random Daily Lay Thread 2019
Total 78 selections
Success 55/78
Strike rate 70%
Thread profit +£219
Andrews Random Lay Thread 2020
Total 36 selections
Success 25/36
Strike rate 69%
Thread profit +£79
Andrews 2021 Lay Thread
Total 28 selections
Success 18/28
Strike rate 64%
Thread profit +£0.50
Andrews 2022 Lay Thread
Total 18 selections
Success 10/18
Strike rate 55%
Thread Loss -£202.50
Andrews 2023 Lay Thread
Total 6 selections
Success 2/6
Strike rate 33%
Thread Loss -£362.50
Andrews 2024 Lay Thread
Total 6 selections
Success 2/6
Strike rate 33%
Thread loss -£169
My posting this year will be mainly at weekends or free days. As always sensible contributions are more than welcome, but sadly we've lost a few in recent years and we all know the situation with The Anorak (Alan Potts) who often posted on my threads.
I'm currently in London for a couple of days and off to Dublin early tomorrow morning. My syndicate horse Agouti Bear has been taken out of the Naas card (5.40) tomorrow, but could be running next Sunday. I'm still going to Naas and Punchestown on Tuesday, so not a wasted trip by any means.
On to this afternoon, a quality card at Longchamp with a Listed and 3 Group races, including the G1 Prix Ganay. A small, but select field of 6, closely matched on RPR in fact only 5lb between the field, although French ratings have the top 3 on 119 (converted). The highest of these on RPR is the improving 4 year old Man Of Stars (134) and my idea of the winner. Course winner LTO over 1/2 a furlong shorter, won well, last 300 metre sections were good and should be fitter than his main rival Sosie. Only beaten once in 6 runs, the trainer is one of the best, if not the best over there (44% strike rate last 14 days) with Mickael Barzalona, although sometimes a little too confident, can certainly ride. I expect Man Of Stars to continue his upward trends towards the Arc and i'm a backer today.
Canderleri from the same stable could win again (1.33).
My 22/1 AP selection for last years Arc Aventure (finished 2nd) also runs on the same card. She's decent, has a turn of foot, but it will be more difficult as a 4 year old filly of course. I've already backed her for this years Arc, albeit small and only because of odds in the mid 20's. I doubt i will back either of these for today.
There's also a G3 race at Krefeld in Germany with a Archie Watson/Hollie Doyle runner who could pick up some euros, but i'm not suggesting he will win
Good luck and have a nice Sunday all.
sort by:
Show
per page
Replies: 339
|
By:
Credit where credit is due.
| ||||||||
|
By:
Thank you ANDREW G/L
 | ||||||||
|
By:
Would help if you goy the name right for your first post on the thread
Map Of Stars | ||||||||
|
By:
got not goy
| ||||||||
|
By:
This is what Hollie says about the runner in Germany;
I partner Archie Watson’s lovely colt ETERNAL ELIXIR in the Group 3 Grosser Preis der Wohnstatte Krefeld Dr Busch Memorial (11.50) over the extended mile at Krefeld – a fairly tight, left-handed track. It’s a race Archie won with Middleham Park Racing’s brilliant globetrotter Brave Emperor two years ago and this 96-rated son of Shaman – the only British runner in the nine-strong field - has the right profile to follow up. Although his only win last year came in novice company, he ran well in two Listed contests at Haydock Park and then in France and has been working nicely on the Lambourn gallops ahead of this seasonal return. | ||||||||
|
By:
lol! Just seen the race time
| ||||||||
|
By:
good luck Andrew
| ||||||||
|
By:
Good morning Guys,
Many thanks for the posts. A cracking day yesterday, visited Danny Murphys stable at the Curragh and saw Agouti Bear for the first time. Went to Naas later where Danny had a winner, and all of us were on Two Stars who clocked a decent time and looks one to follow in sprints this season. Naas is a nice, compact course, i liked it; another box ticked off. Great company, plenty of banter, weather was nice and a profitable day. Off to Punchestown this afternoon, another first time course, and i hope Kopek Des Borders wins impressively, but i will be opposing Ballyburn (4.05) and think a stablemate Impaire Et Passe can beat him. Maybe more on this race later (a lay selection). Bright Legend is a maiden over hurdles in 11 attempts, but has run well enough on occasions and could turn a previous 3.25L beating by Londonofficecallin (3.05) with a 2lb pull and Harry Cobden on board. PHS No excuse, simply lack of concentration, but can i use spellcheck as a reason.  Good luck and have a nice Tuesday all. | ||||||||
|
By:
Lay Post
Ballyburn - 4.50 Punchestown A 7 year old gelding trained by Willie Mullins A decent hurdler and regular festival winner including the DRF and Cheltenham last year where he looked imperious on both occasions. Mixed record as a chaser, beaten twice in 5 runs although he was never going to beat Sir Gino at Kempton, an odd entry to begin with, and he was well beaten at Cheltenham LTO. Still has a tendency to be keen in his races and i suspect he will go off in front this afternoon. The fences at Punchestown are not as stiff as Cheltenham, but he's not the most fluent jumper anyway. A couple in the field are only rated a pound lower, and barring the rag, even the outsiders are not out of it, in fact it wouldn't surprise me if Steller Story ran a blinder at double figure odds. If i had to pick the winner i would go for Impaire Et Passe, but i'm happy to take on the jolly at 2.62. Lay Ballyburn at 2.62 29-Apr-25 09:52:55 16:50 Punchestown Ballyburn - 3m1f Grd1 Nov Chs Betfair Bet ID 1:387084927985 | Matched: 29-Apr-25 09:52:55 Lay 2.62 50.00 -- 81.00 50.00 Matched | ||||||||
|
By:
Thank you ANDREW
G/L | ||||||||
|
By:
Glad you are enjoying your break, and good luck today.
| ||||||||
|
By:
Nice to see we're back to what the thread title says
All the best for the next 8 months. | ||||||||
|
By:
WD Andrew
| ||||||||
|
By:
Thank you ANDREW for the lay
| ||||||||
|
By:
Good start Andrew, well done.
| ||||||||
|
By:
WD Andrew
| ||||||||
|
By:
Surely Daniel won’t be in the habit of using Keenan ?
Dreadful scenes at Brighton tbh…. | ||||||||
|
By:
Good morning Guys,
Many thanks for the posts, appreciated as always. Back home last night from London and Dublin, the former a family visit, the other 2 days of racing at Naas and Punchestown, my first visits to both courses so a short summary in bullet point format. Naas Warm, sunny weather. A small crowd, but this made it easier to get around with no queues for food or drinks and still a good atmosphere. A nice roasted pork lunch with all the trimmings in a nice ambience, large portion for 17 euros. A lovely, compact course, good view from the stands. I guess around a dozen bookmakers and i saw a few decent bets pass hands. Two Stars made it a good day for us, although the favourite was well in on ratings, he had never run over 5f before. I like the horse and backed it LTO as well, an improving sprinter even at 5 years old. Was racing off marks in the 80's last year, but is now on 110. Has a G2 entry at the Curragh over 6f end of this month, but i think he will be kept at 5f. One to watch, he's a decent sprinter. Punchestown Another warm, sunny afternoon. Much larger crowd than Naas as you would expect from a major festival meeting. Having said that, it didn't appear to be as crowded as the DRF and getting a drink wasn't such a big deal. Very scenic background, good views from the stands. Many bookmakers in attendance, although surprisingly enough no Star Sports. or at least i didn't see them, or Simon Nott. AK bets were there. Kopek Des Brandes was disappointing, he didn't jump well at several flights behind a lunatic pace set by Patrick Mullins and backers were probably fearing the worst even before the 2nd last. I like WPM as a trainer although he didn't do himself any favours by saying he didn't think the horse was fit enough. One job etc ! The bubble well and truly burst and we will probably see him over fences next season. My first lay post selection on this thread, Ballyburn was looking a loser when 2 stablemates, 2nd and 3rd in the betting fell and he was going well enough in front. He must have gone low odds IR, but when i saw Danny making good progress on Champ Kiely i thought he was going the better. Ballyburn won me a good few bob as a hurdler, but i've never been really convinced about him as a chaser, and like Kopek i think he will change disciplines and return as a hurdler next season. I laid Ballyburn for more than the thread stake, but a losing day exacerbated by the fall of El Fabiolo when just in front 2 fences out and Eagle Of Destiny in the bumper finale breaking down when going well 2f out. One of those days.  2025 Lay P/L Status
Note the Running Form refers to the bet. For anyone that has never been to either Naas or Punchestown, i can recommend both although i do appreciate Punchestown occasionally throws up a shock result, but it's end of a long season so hardly a surprise, we see the same at Ascot on champions day. I've mentioned before the Irish are lovely, very friendly people, more so than the very likeable Swedes and on a completely different level to Germans (bless them ). I can't wait for my next visit.Our syndicate horse Caribos runs in the 08.24 at Doncaster on Saturday with Cieren Fallon on board. My other one, Agouti Bear has two entries at Sligo on Sunday, but i'm not going to watch either. I did enough travelling yesterday with 3 flights (intended) and although an office free day today to recover, i'm off to Longchamp next weekend for the Guineas meeting. Formoftherace I wasn't even aware Dan and Claire Kübler had a runner yesterday, i was travelling anyway and i haven't seen the VR since, so no idea of whatever went on. I know the horse in question of course, but i will not comment on jockey bookings and with one exception for Salamanca Lad last year, i've always been happy with those on ours. The Küblers run a decent operation down there and communication with the team at Sarsen Farn is superb. If you look at the form of the 7 year old Waleyfa, his 2 previous winning marks at Brighton were 51/58, in 0-55 and 0-58 class. The highest rated runner he has ever beaten is 57. Yesterday he was running off 61, upped in class to 0-65 and the lowest rated runner was 60, highest 65. He was not a 5/2 shot in my book and i hope you didn't back him. Good luck. Good luck and have a nice Thursday all. | ||||||||
|
By:
Notebook Andrew certainly wasn’t its true running tbh….
Have a good one. | ||||||||
|
By:
For He read She
| ||||||||
|
By:
Thanks for the report Andrew
| ||||||||
|
By:
17000 plus on Tuesday and just over 20k thursday with loads of room.
Naas crowd felt more than normal for that Monday evening which was probably due to the balmy weather...free admission for RTV members instead of 15 euros so there's the month's subs paid for | ||||||||
|
By:
And the black stuff at 7 euros a pint..think the Festival was £7.80 and they know how to pour it in Ireland
| ||||||||
|
By:
Good afternoon Guys,
The first classic at Newmarket this afternoon (3.35) a race dubbed 'the last 2 year old race of the previous season' by John Gosden, although i can't agree, but i do feel it's lost a little recognition compared to bygone years. The roll call of winners going back to Tudor Minstrel in 1947 is an Almanac of horse racing greats, Nijinsky, Brigadier Gerard, El Gran Senor, Dancing Brave, Sea The Stars and Frankel to name a few. It's a different race to the superb 70's and 80's era and the best horse doesn't always win, City Of Troy being such an example in 2024. I don't think it's a particularly strong field this afternoon, and i had to Google when the last female trainer won the race; it was actually in 1956, although the jockey club didn't recognise women trainers then, but i think Jessie Harrington could win with Green Impact this afternoon. Out of a Galileo mare and sired by Wootton Bassett who is becoming a sought after sire, he was half-decent as a 2 year-old winning the G2 Champion Juvenile stakes at Leopardstown beating Delacroix who has franked the form with 2 x G3 wins and a close 3rd in a G1 since. There doesn't appear to a lot of pace in the field although the Guineas is generally a decent one. Green Impact may want further in time, but will probably be prominent early and running on strongly after the dip. I've already backed him AP, win only at 16 and will back the 3 places later. Nicky Henderson will have been very disappointed with Constitution Hill at Punchestown yesterday, but i think Lulamba will win the Champion 4 year old hurdle (4.50). I laid him at Cheltenham, but he ran better than i expected, finishing a 0.5L runner-up behind Poniros from the all conquering Willie Mullins stable who reopposes. Nico was probably concentrating on East India Dock and may not have seen Poniros, who did finish off well to be fair. I couldn't see a decent lay post selection earlier although i thought Dacres Cross (2.05 Thirsk) was a bit short at under 3.0. Our syndicate horse Calibos runs in this evenings final race, Doncaster 8.24 and he goes there with every chance. My other one Agouti Bear runs in the opener (1.35) at Sligo tomorrow. Fingers crossed for both. Isleham I'm surprised to read there were 17,000 racegoers at Naas on Monday, it didn't appear to be so crowded, at least to my eyes, although i'm not disputing the figures of course. I liked both courses, but if i had to choose one it would be Naas, i would definitely like to go again. Good luck and have a nice Saturday all. | ||||||||
|
By:
Thankyou ANDREW
G/L | ||||||||
|
By:
WD with Lulamba Andrew. I got 3.30, then it went bigger
 .Dacres well beaten. I'm sure Lampus will have laid it. | ||||||||
|
By:
Good morning Guys,
Decent cards this afternoon including the first fillies classic at Newmarket (3.35) quite possibly race of the day with Godolphin v Coolmore and a couple of unbeaten fillies as 2 year olds separated by only 2lb on OR ratings, and 1lb on RPR, both favouring Lake Victoria. I thought the betting would be closer between the pair, but in any event i'm with Desert Flower who looked impressive in 3 wins on the course last season, particularly in the Fillies Mile over CD. Her main rival is Lake Victoria also decent and may have the better draw, but i've already backed the favourite at 6/4 and think she will give the Appleby/Buick/Godolphin combination a classic double. One thing i learnt earlier looking at conditions of the classic, the lowest rating to enter a filly is 80, i expected it to be 90 at least. I considered putting up Roaring Lion current 2/1 favourite in the Dahlia stakes (2.20) and runner-up in this race last year as a lay post selection, but the more i look at the field, the more i feel i only have Cinderella's Dream on my side and she was disappointing at Meydan LTO (2/11f). Mickael Barzalona got first run on Choisya in that race and may have caught William by surprise, but she's won a Grade 1 at Keeneland since so maybe an improving mare. I will back Cinderella's Dream small to make it a good weekend for the boys in Blue. Over at Longchamp (my favourite course) a good card with the G3 Prix d'Hedouville an early season pointer for the Arc. The likely favourite is Junko, one i put up on my 2023 thread when he was running at München, i couldn't believe he wasn't favourite that day and he won easily. There's not a lot of pace in the field and it could be tactical. Junko may need the race and Sevenna's Knight will certainly be staying on late, but i may play Sibayen in the 2/TBP market if he's odds against, although it will be later this afternoon as liquidity is often poor for anything other than the primary French meetings. Recently transferred to one of the best trainers over there, Francis Graffard who has a couple of runners with Mickael Barzalona on board as retained jockey to the Aga Khan (or exors of). Lightly raced for a 4 year old and could be improving. A fillies G3 at Cologne, but i haven't got a clue who wins. At Doncaster last night, our horse Calibos was well backed (2/1f) and showed a good attitude after making most of the running to finish a close 3rd, still in contention at the furlong pole where i thought he might drop back tamely through the field. A couple of 3rd places doesn't reduce the monthly training bills very much, but the season is young and he's lightly raced. Cieren provided a lot of feedback in the post race video interview, probably more so than any of the jockeys we have used in the past. Fingers crossed for my other one, Agouti Bear in the opener at Sligo, but going is not ideal. PHS Thanks and WD with the bet.I backed Lulamba at 3.1, again later at 2.7 and 2.3 and was surprised to see it had been matched higher early on. We obviously backed at the right time considering the SP of 11/10; i didn't think he would be that short. I also laid Dacres at 3.25, but only small. I will look for a lay post after lunch, but nothing jumped off the page earlier. Good luck and have a nice Sunday all. | ||||||||
|
By:
Running Lion (Roaring Lion being her sire).
| ||||||||
|
By:
PHS
Thanks, i think i made the same mistake once before | ||||||||
|
By:
Co ral currently 7/4 Sibayan 2 places.
| ||||||||
|
By:
I was about to correct my spelling of Sibayan but I see mine was correct.
| ||||||||
|
By:
Thank you ANDREW G/L with your backs
| ||||||||
|
By:
well done Andrew.
| ||||||||
|
By:
| ||||||||
|
By:
BOOM ...................
 | ||||||||
|
By:
WD with the bet type selection on Siba
. There was some 5/2 and bigger on BF. | ||||||||
|
By:
Congrats on Agouti as well Andrew. I guess now that and not Siba placing was what your BOOM was about
 | ||||||||
|
By:
Congratulations and well done, Andrew
| ||||||||
|
By:
Easy winner well done.
|