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Andrew-In-Sweden
27 Apr 25 10:37
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Date Joined: 01 Apr 25
| Topic/replies: 921 | Blogger: Andrew-In-Sweden's blog
Good morning Guys,

A new belated lay thread, the concept i originally started in April 2018 and have repeated every year since since. The past 2 years have been abysmal from my part, notwithstanding very few selections, generally for lack of time due to workload and also losing my posting rights twice. Although the P/L selections reduced dramatically, the thread content didn't and there were winners (and losers) not only from myself, but others that actually like to discuss horse racing. I really appreciate all efforts from those involved and the thread per se is still popular, even if the forum isn't what it was.

The lay selection format is based on only one post in any given day (to prevent chasing) bookmaker odds of 5/2 or under and matched to win a stake of £50 (not liability). For transparency i will post the P/L status and everything will be recorded on this thread only, as always.

Overall, the threads are in profit (breakdown below) but if Timeform rated me, the term 'regressing' would be mentioned and duly warranted as can be seen. Laugh. 2018 was a good year, although i was home convalescing for several weeks so i had far more time on my hands then.

Lay Threads Record

Andrews Daily Lay Thread 2018 (Spring/Summer)
Total 66 selections
Success 55/66
Strike rate 83%
Thread profit +£1657

Andrews Daily Lay Thread 2018 (late Summer/Winter)
Total 64 selections
Success 46/64
Strike rate 72%
Thread profit +£425

Andrews Random Daily Lay Thread 2019
Total 78 selections
Success 55/78
Strike rate 70%
Thread profit +£219

Andrews Random Lay Thread 2020
Total 36 selections
Success 25/36
Strike rate 69%
Thread profit +£79

Andrews 2021 Lay Thread
Total 28 selections
Success 18/28
Strike rate 64%
Thread profit +£0.50

Andrews 2022 Lay Thread
Total 18 selections
Success 10/18
Strike rate 55%
Thread Loss -£202.50

Andrews 2023 Lay Thread
Total 6 selections
Success 2/6
Strike rate 33%
Thread Loss -£362.50

Andrews 2024 Lay Thread
Total 6 selections
Success 2/6
Strike rate 33%
Thread loss -£169

My posting this year will be mainly at weekends or free days. As always sensible contributions are more than welcome, but sadly we've lost a few in recent years and we all know the situation with The Anorak (Alan Potts) who often posted on my threads.

I'm currently in London for a couple of days and off to Dublin early tomorrow morning. My syndicate horse Agouti Bear has been taken out of the Naas card (5.40) tomorrow, but could be running next Sunday. I'm still going to Naas and Punchestown on Tuesday, so not a wasted trip by any means.

On to this afternoon, a quality card at Longchamp with a Listed and 3 Group races, including the G1 Prix Ganay. A small, but select field of 6, closely matched on RPR in fact only 5lb between the field, although French ratings have the top 3 on 119 (converted). The highest of these on RPR is the improving 4 year old Man Of Stars (134) and my idea of the winner. Course winner LTO over 1/2 a furlong shorter, won well, last 300 metre sections were good and should be fitter than his main rival Sosie. Only beaten once in 6 runs, the trainer is one of the best, if not the best over there (44% strike rate last 14 days) with Mickael Barzalona, although sometimes a little too confident, can certainly ride. I expect Man Of Stars to continue his upward trends towards the Arc and i'm a backer today.

Canderleri from the same stable could win again (1.33).

My 22/1 AP selection for last years Arc Aventure (finished 2nd) also runs on the same card. She's decent, has a turn of foot, but it will be more difficult as a 4 year old filly of course. I've already backed her for this years Arc, albeit small and only because of odds in the mid 20's. I doubt i will back either of these for today.

There's also a G3 race at Krefeld in Germany with a Archie Watson/Hollie Doyle runner who could pick up some euros, but i'm not suggesting he will win

Good luck and have a nice Sunday all.
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Report Andrew-In-Sweden September 7, 2025 11:54 AM BST
Thanks for the posts Tommy and Gazza. Normal practice is resumed with me getting a race time wrong, thanks for correcting it. PHS often mentions them and rightly so.

Already on course, Goldikova Salon on level 3. Very warm outside, especially wearing a jacket, but there is a nice breeze.
Report uptheirons September 7, 2025 12:00 PM BST
What is the weather like Andrew?
Report uptheirons September 7, 2025 12:00 PM BST
Sorry,missed that Andrew
Report stewarts rise September 7, 2025 12:41 PM BST
Hope you have a great day and a very nice week in Spain Andrew, where are you heading to?
Report stewarts rise September 7, 2025 3:00 PM BST
Feel that you were rather lucky with your lay of Rosallion there Andrew, should have won imo, but they all count.
Report stewarts rise September 7, 2025 3:34 PM BST
Well done with Aventure, won easily must have a good chance in the Arc, thanks for highlighting the stats.
Report 11kv September 7, 2025 3:35 PM BST
Well done in the 3.25
Report second again September 7, 2025 3:42 PM BST
She won easily ,enjoy Spain.
Report lead on September 7, 2025 3:49 PM BST
Well done,Andrew...now for the Arc..
Report stewarts rise September 12, 2025 1:17 PM BST
Good luck today Andrew with your horse.
Report Andrew-In-Sweden September 21, 2025 1:08 PM BST
Good afternoon Guys,

Manny thanks for the posts, much appreciated as always.

A couple of weeks since my last post from Longchamp for the Arc trials, followed by a weeks' vacation in Spain and thereafter a manic week in the office  for review meetings with engineers from Italy.

A profitable Sunday at Longchamp, starting off with the good thing in the opening Arab race who won in a canter. In the Prix Foy, i didn't lay Los Angeles as planned due to the drift on here (finished 4th) but had a small win bet on Map of Stars who stumbled coming out of the stalls and was never in the race afterwards (ignore this form line). Recovered the loss with a lay of Rosallion, albeit only by a short head although i may have been lucky to collect, but as Alan Potts has mentioned on here before, a short heat or 5L pays the same.

My day was all about Aventure in the Prix Vermeille, one of my favourite fillies and although she was up against an improving 3 year old AOB odds-on (PMU 1.50) favourite in Whirl i was quietly confident and had a few bob on (PMU 3.90) also on here at varying odds slightly over 4.0.

In the race itself i was surprised to see Christophe Soumillon take Whirl wide from the start off a slow pace and was happy the way Aventure was travelling. An even pace and basically Indian file thereafter; off the final bend and into the home straight CS wanted Whirl to quicken in the lead, but i felt she wasn't going that well and at the 400 metre marker was sure Aventure would pick her up; 100 metres later i was confident she was the winner.

She won quite easily, eased close home although she really only had one to beat after Whirl faded tamely. I checked her sectionals that were under 11 seconds for the 400-200 metre segment, this was obviously when she quickend up to go 2L clear. The Arc may not be a strong field this year and she could win in October, but the draw will be important as always. She's now rated 118 (converted) easily the highest for 4 year old fillies over there. I've backed her at 25/1 AP (22/1 last year) and could actually trade for a profit, but not sure if i will.

The cards this afternoon are typical for a Sunday although there are group races with GB interest in Sweden and Germany including the St Leger at the latter where the Newmarket trained Caballo Dee Mar has a decent shout against the locally trained, short priced favourite.

I don't really fancy anything this afternoon except my football team Bristol City to continue their good start to the season and beat Oxford United, but i'm not backing them, and if i do play it will be a small win on an improving 3 year old filly, Forty Years On (Southwell 6.15) with form figures 3-1-1-1. Not a given by any means, but this is time of the year to back improving fillies.

If there is a shortie to be laid, maybe Cayman Dancer (Hamilton 3.13) is one even allowing for a drop in class. May want to lead, but will be taken on by Arkinthestars and this is a tricky handicap, very open; if the unpredictable Ocean Of Dreams was on a going day would probably win comfortably.

On to our syndicate horse Calibos, he was just run out of 2nd place on soft/heavy going LTO behind an impressive winner Northwest Passenger who has been raised 9lb to 75 but could still be well handicapped. We are considering an entry end of the month and another early October, so i suspect 2 more runs before he goes to the HIT sales at Newmarket. As Dan and Claire Kübler are going to Bahrain soon (returning March/April) and not taking any new horses we have a new trainer lined up for a likely purchase at the same sale. My other one (different syndicate) Agouti Bear could have a run later this month.

Stewart

I went back to Alicante for 4 days with 3 more in Benidorm, but this time in the old town that's a lot better than than the new area where the late night stag and hen parties often congregate. The weather was superb with temperatures between 28c-32c and the only rain was a heavy shower for about 2 hours one afternoon, although it cleared up and reverted to hot and sunny soon afterwards. I rented an apartment owned by the Voramar Hotel and could use all their facilities, roof-top pool, gym, sauna etc and the breakfast buffet was superb, incredible value at only 7.5 euros for residents, i can really recommend it.

If there is a positive about the new town (it's fine during the day) the Winning Post bar/restaurant with typical British menu take bets, albeit a maximum of £100 if the manageress is not there (she often is) and from what i could see a maximum of 2K payout for multiples, so not for those that want a few bob on. At least they take a bet, i didn't see any sign of a laptop or PC with Betfair up.

Benidorm appears to have a poor reputation, but i would be more than happy to return to the old town, i thought it was OK and i may go back for Cheltenham week.

Good luck and have a nice Sunday all.
Report Andrew-In-Sweden September 21, 2025 3:36 PM BST
George Scotts' Caballo De Mar won the German St Leger at Dortmund. Stayed on really well to win going away by circa 3L. Odds 4.70 (German Tote).
Report PHS September 21, 2025 3:56 PM BST
Thanks for the interesting summary AndrewWink
Report Andrew-In-Sweden September 28, 2025 12:55 PM BST
Good afternoon Guys,

PHS, thanks. The lay Cayman Dancer (7/4f) finished 3rd of 4 and the win selection Forty Yard On (85/40f) was beaten a head, so with the German Leger winner a profitable post.

I don't really fancy much today, but there is a potential bet albeit in the G1 Preis Von Europa at Cologne (15.00) so not covered by Betfair. Sibayan is much improved and now rated the same as Aventure in France (converted to 118). Consistent and since Francis Graffard took over, form figures of  1-2-2-1-1 looking particularly decent at Deauville LTO. Concedes 3lb to the SMP trained Tiffany who is no stranger to running in Germany, a decent filly, but a year older. Odds of 10/11 with several books, i think he will be shorter on the tote and win.

Over at the Curragh, if the rains come, i would be interested in a small EW bet on the Karl Burke trained Spycatcher (15.12) currently 12.5 on here. Finished 5th, beaten 2L in this race last year on good going and although a 7 year old is still useful on his day.

This time next week i will be at Longchamp for the Arc (actually travelling over on Friday evening) and joined by 3 other forum posters and several of the Fellowship Racing syndicate. Our horse Calibos runs in the opener at Bath on Tuesday (14.22) and this may be his last race for us before the HIT sales end of the month (we will buy a replacement) although it depends on hos he gets on. My other one Agouti Bear will be out next month, probably at Dundalk.

I may have a lay post selection later.

Good luck and have a nice Sunday all.
Report Tiger Tiger September 28, 2025 1:20 PM BST
Andrew, think again about going to Benidorm for Cheltenham week, its becoming a nightmare.

All the pubs down the main strip that show Cheltenham on the TV screens will be full and every seat taken two hours before the first race.
The Winning Post is dreadful, long queues to place bets and even longer to collect, the women paying you out havent worked out your winnings until you collect, make sure you know how much you are due as they count up in their heads and often make mistakes. If you have winning bets that are doubles/trebles yankees etc, then you have to collect winnings between a limited colection window of to 10 and 12 the next morning, and endear a huge queue, you will wait around an hour!

The British bookies with a Spanish licence on Rincon has closed. Yes its cheaper to go to Benidorm and have two weeks in the sun than it is to go to Cheltenham, three years ago Benidorm was great during Cheltenham week, now though, its overcrowded.

Its much easier to place your bets on Betfair and then just find somewhere away from the New Town that shows the racing, The Yellow Submarine in the Old Town is one, or jump on the bus and go to Albir where a couple of British bars will be showing the festival.
Report Trackman September 28, 2025 1:30 PM BST
I can recommend the Irish Tavern in Albir. Lovely pint plenty of TV's, a big screen outside on the terrace too.
Report Andrew-In-Sweden September 28, 2025 1:42 PM BST
Tiger Tiger and Trackman, many thanks for the advice, much appreciated.

The novelty of sitting in the sun, having a beer or 3, typical Brit food and being able to bet in cash was appealing, but based on what you mentioned there's obviously a downside during Cheltenham week. It wasn't so crowded a few weeks ago, but i totally agree about the women behind the bar and settling bets.

There used to be a betting shop in Malta, but it's been closed for a few years, i would have preferred there. Maybe i think to rethink my plans.
Report Andrew-In-Sweden September 28, 2025 1:46 PM BST
Lay Post

Astrazar - 2.30 Ffos Las

A 2 year old Starman colt trained by Ed Walker.

A maiden from 5 runs, unfancied on debut at 40/1 finishing down the field, but a couple of runner-up finishes since. Form is average. Punters will be attracted by his 4th place in a valuable sales race LTO, but form in these typical races with large fields can often be unreliable. Currently rated 84 that i feel is a bit high.

Has only run overall 5f and 6f (7.5f today) and never on heavy going.

Lavender Gold will vie for favouritism and his 3rd place LTO looks decent in the context of an average maiden. The winner has won again in class 4 since and raised to 87; the 5th and 6th placers have also won since.

It's not a match as the Ralph Beckett filly will come on a lot for her debut run, although i very much doubt any of the others can win.

A risky lay as he has form and is down in class (as is Lavender Gold) but going and the trip are unknowns.

Lay @ 2.46. If a loss i will use 2.58 to settle in the P/L as it has drifted a little since i laid.

Good luck all.
Report Tiger Tiger September 28, 2025 1:49 PM BST
I cocnur with Trackman, although The Dog House and  The Local are other good ones at half the price of the Irish bar, there's another one sprung up near The Local too that I just cant remember the name of, same area though.
Report Tiger Tiger September 28, 2025 1:50 PM BST
*concur
Report PHS September 28, 2025 2:44 PM BST
Nice big drift (icicle icon) by the time I saw it stopped me laying this one thankfullyPlain
Report Andrew-In-Sweden October 3, 2025 7:36 AM BST
Good morning Guys,

Tiger Tiger and PHS, many thanks for the posts.

From Sunday 28th. Sibayan was well backed and won easily in Germany, my other EW selection Spycatcher in Ireland was 3rd @ 9/1. The lay post selection Astrazar drifted out to 15/8, acted well on the heavy going and won comfortably. No excuses, simply a poor and risky selection.

Our syndicate horse Calibos was disappointing finishing down the field at Bath on Tuesday and currently it's doubtful he will run again before the Newmarket HIT sales in October. We are LOT 435 on Tuesday 28th, i can post a live video link for anyone that is interested nearer the day. Catalogue link below. I noticed White Birch (rated 120) who is entered for the Arc is in the same sale, but he's probably out of our budget Wink

https://www.tattersalls.com/sales/autumn-horses-in-training-sale

2025 Lay P/L Status

Current Progress 7/9
Running Form WWLWWWWWL
Daily Loss -£79
Running P/L +£171


Note the Running Form refers to the bet, not the race result and no commission is taken into account.

A free day from the office due to a public holiday (Reunification day in Germany) so i may post on todays racing later and a few selections for the Arc weekend tonight or early tomorrow morning. München Airport was temporarily closed yesterday due to Drone activity, hopefully no reoccurrence this afternoon as i fly to Paris. 

Good luck and have a nice Friday all.
Report Andrew-In-Sweden October 3, 2025 3:46 PM BST
Good afternoon Guys,

Currently at München Airport waiting for my flight to CDG/Paris for the Arc De Triomphe weekend so posting my review of a few selected races in advance to save me time tomorrow and Sunday. Later this evening i will meet up with the usual team i go racing with, including several BF posters who are probably already in a bar. Plans often change, but currently 3 or 4 of us will go to Longchamp tomorrow, with the rest sightseeing, although we're all meeting up for an evening dinner reservation in the Latin Quarter. 8 of us will be on course Sunday, so a decent sized group, more than in recent years.

A public holiday in Germany today and bad travel planning by me as there was a group card at Saint Cloud this afternoon (with GB and Irish runners) the only Paris course i haven't been to, but i hadn't given the date a thought when i booked the flight.

My favourite weekend flat meeting of the year, 6 group races tomorrow with a couple of G1's and 6 G1's on Sunday if you include the Arab races. Irrespective of this i thought tomorrows card wasn't easy, nothing really jumped off the page when i reviewed the final declarations last night and with exception of a lay and a couple of tentative each ways possibles, i didn't really fancy anything strongly, so my bets will be very few, although there's always chance of an impulsive one. Nevertheless i will enjoy the afternoon and i can't wait.

The Longchamp weather forecast is typically Autumnal with a possibility of rain and cloud cover on both days (temperatures circa 15c) so even allowing for French going descriptions it may be closer to soft than good by our standards, the course doesn't drain so quickly and close proximity to the Seine adds to this. The rail will be moved to provide a trip of fresh ground in the home straight in Sunday.

Saturday

G2 Prix Chaudenay (12.23)

Only putting up a selection in the opener and it's doubtful i will actually back the French trained, Swiss Derby winner Espoir Avenir who won well over CD LTO and is improving for the step up in trip. The envisaged soft going is in his favour. I would be a layer of the likely Irish trained favourite Tennessee Stud.

G1 Prix Du Cadran (12.58)

Over the years, this race has been won by several well stayers well known to punters, Levmoss, Sagaro, Royal Gait and Westerner to name just a few and in the past 4 years shared by 2 wins apiece by the now retired Kryprios and the ill-fated Trueshan (RIP).

The field tomorrow that initially was reduced to a ridiculous 3 runners has been saved by 5 supplemental entries, but they will not reach such esteemed levels of the pre-mentioned; a single runner rated over 110 gives an indication of the quality and that one is Sunway, trained by the French Born, Sussex based trainer David Menuisier who is no stranger to Longchamp.

Regular readers of my thread will be aware of my opinion of him (Sunway, not David) i think he's overrated, he won a poor G1 in heavy going at Saint Cloud as a 2 year old (form that is average at best) and was runner-up in the Irish Derby a year later, albeit not a classic for the ages by any means, but fair play to connections that have picked up over 500K in total prize money.

I've posted before he will never win a G1 race and i include tomorrow, in fact if he wins, i will run down the Longchamp straight completely naked singing the French National Anthem; i'm not sure what is worse, seeing me starkers or listening to my singing Laugh. This would amuse a racing friend of mine (not joining us unfortunately) as he is a fan of the horse, but it's all about opinions, bless him and i don't get it rught every time. A lay for me around 5/1 unless he drifts significantly, that will pay the days expenses.

One i think that could run well is Caballo De Mar and i may play this for the 3 places assuming 8 runners stand their ground. Has to improve again and he's never run this far (20f) but he was strong at the finish in the German St Leger (14f) and was runner-up in the Chester Cup over almost 19f.

G2 Prix Daniel Wildenstein (3.25)

The Prix Daniel Wildenstein is generally won by a French stable and i think it will be again, albeit not with a fancied runner, in fact the opposite with outsider Darius Cen trained by Victoria Head. Winner of a 2 year old maiden by no less than 11L and then a listed class at Saint Cloud earlier this year. Failed in a G3 (5th) when 9/4f since, but not disgraced and although 7th in Listed class next was only beaten just over 2L in a bunch finish. Lightly raced, only 6 runs, has form with Ridari and Dreamliner who reoppose and with a decent draw in 4 on envisaged soft going (that he needs) he could maybe run into a place. I expect him to make the running. It's a decent field so he's 25/1 with the books for a reason and could just as easily finish down the field, but i will have a small win/3 place bet on him.

Sunday

The best flat card of the year in Europe (at least in my eyes).

G1 Prix Marcel Boussac (12.40)

I race i particularly like, Divine Proportions, Zarkava and Blue Rose Cen immediately spring to mind and one of my favourite filles Zarigana should have won last year (1.01 and beaten on the nod). I was impressed with the AOB trained Diamond Necklace when she won at Leopardstown last month, she has a very good turn of foot and the step up to 8f is a positive. Well drawn in 3, and has another filly i like in Green Spirit (put on here before) to beat but i think she will win.

G1 Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere  (1.15)

Rayif is unbeaten in 2 runs and looked good at Deauville LTO quickening up in the final 200 metres to win going away. A decent draw in 4 and expect to see Mikael Barzalona produce him late. I will be a layer of the AOB trained Puerto Rico if he's anywhere near 5/1.

G1 Prix L'Abbaye (1.50)

A very open field where the draw is as important on the sprint course, just as it is for the Arc. Very open this year, you could pick several and not be on the winner, but i will play a couple of outsiders with small stakes, Mgheera who i saw win over CD on classic day in May and Monteille who has the plum draw on the inside.

G1 Arabian World Cup (2.25)

1 million euros to the winner that revolves around 'Frankel of the Arabian Breds' Al Ghadeer, winner of 12 from 13 (beaten on debut) and only the 2nd horse to win the Triple Crown twice (the TC is a trio of designated races in Goodwood, Longchamp and Doha). Won at Goodwood in July and a win here will only require the same at Doha in February 2026 to make it 3 that has never been achieved before.

Impressive in this race last year, but meets a couple of decent rivals in HM Alchahine (9 wins from 10) and to a lessor extent RB Kingmaker who he has beaten before. HM A is rated only 1lb below the likely favourite and i was on course on Arc trials days when he won; much the best horse in the race and looked the winner from a long way out. Should be a good race, but if there is a banker over the 2 days, this would be my choice and i'm a backer, although for those that want to take the short odds, he is a 6 year old now and his main rival could give him a race.

G1 Prix De L'Arc De Triomphe (3.05)

Regular readers are aware of my fondness for the filly Aventure. I backed her AP (22/1) last year and have done so again (25/1 and 22/1). I backed her in the Prix Vermeille and she won easily, although aided by the odds-on favourite Whirl not showing her true form. She doesn't get the attention i feel is warranted, in fact if Bluestocking hadn't been around, would probably be a strong favourite for the Arc today in spite of a better AOB 3 year old flly and a poor draw. A record of 6-5-0, but even the unplaced position was a 4th in the G1 Prix Diane (Oaks) at Chantilly, only beaten a length.

The draw in stall12 is not a positive, although Found (2016) and Torquator Tasso (2021) overcame it it and Frankie did on Golden Horn from stall 14 with a well judged ride from the start. A lot depends on early pace and a prominent position, but at least i have the best jockey in France on top, Maxim Guyon who knows his way around Longchamp. The first 6 furlongs are straight (with a gradual rise) before a sweeping bend into the false straight and i suspect he will get a good position prior to this point. Trust me, if she wins, my cheering will be the loudest on the course.

I don't need to back Aventure again, although i may have a place bet on course, and also a win and place on Daryz trained by Francis Graffard who has a good draw and could still be improving.

The Japanese may have to wait another year at least for a first win and i don't fancy the favourite Minnie Hawk who i will be laying.

G1 Prix De La Foret (4.25)

Once again, regular readers know i'm a big fan of the French filly Zarigana, just as i was in bygone years with her Grandmother Zarkava, quite possibly my favourite filly ever and i was fortunate to watch her run a few times.

I've been following the progress of her since she made an impressive debut at Chantilly over a year ago and have backed her in every run since. Very well bred and although lightly raced with only 2 runs prior to the Prix Marcel Boussac i thought she was possibly the best 2 year filly in France, but a head bob photo finish showed she had been touched off in a race she should not have lost (1.01 on here). A couple of group wins this season, including the G1 Poule d'Essai des Pouliches (French 1000 Guineas) where she finished runner-up, yet again in a photo, but was rightly awarded the race by the stewards after suffering interference late on and becoming unbalanced.

Is she an exceptional filly ? No, she has to do a lot more and will probably never reach the exalted heights of her Grandmother. It's possible she may not be as good as i initially thought last year and she does have her quirks, especially when she hits the front, but i'm confident she's decent.

Trained by the likeable Francis Graffard, one of a few trainers i follow over there who has a stable full of quality racehorses and year by year is making a name for himself on the European horse racing circuit. She steps back in trip to 7f for the first time since her debut run and meets the boys for the first time, so not a gimme by any means. Mikael Barzalona is one of the best jockeys in France, although he's not one for faint hearted punters by any means, but i don't care if MB wants to showboat and wave to the crowd if he's in front on the line. I really want Zarigana to win and impressively to reinforce my opinion of her. I will be backing her (9/2 with a few books).

Win or lose, it will be a superb weekend in great company, plenty of banter, decent food and a few beers. If Aventure wins, i will be returning to München on Monday night with a fatter wallet than i arrived with. Zarigana winning would be icing on the cake.

Good luck and have a nice weekend all.

T4
Report Early Morning Riser October 3, 2025 3:48 PM BST
Have a nice weekend in Paris Andrew.
Report Andrew-In-Sweden October 3, 2025 4:56 PM BST
Thanks EMR, i certainly will and in a city i know quite well and love. Of course a winner or 2 would be nice, but that's never a given. At least it looks like my flight will go on time (18.20) so a good start to the weekend
Report Early Morning Riser October 3, 2025 5:29 PM BST
Fun and games on Tuesday when French air traffic control goes on strike for a few days, 2 of my children and their families are abroad on holidays, one in Greece and the other in Spain, one lot due home on Wednesday the other on Thursday. looks like they may have trouble getting home.  Hope you have a good few winners Andrew.
Report Lampus October 3, 2025 5:41 PM BST
Thank you ANDREW   G/LGrin
Report bristol county caravans October 4, 2025 10:14 AM BST
Thanks for the analysis AIS.
Report Andrew-In-Sweden October 4, 2025 10:59 AM BST
Good morning guys,

Paris weather update. Showers last night when i arrived at 20.00. Between 07.00 when i woke and 10.00 rain showers in La Defense area. Now sunny and cloudy with a light breeze.
Report Andrew-In-Sweden October 4, 2025 11:00 AM BST
Thank you for the posts Happy
Report stewarts rise October 4, 2025 1:08 PM BST
Thank god for that, Sunway didn't win! No streak for the Paris racegoers, good call on the winner Andrew.
Report Mr_Spreadsheet October 5, 2025 7:37 AM BST
exactly SR - I certainly didnt want to video it!! Laugh
Report second again October 5, 2025 7:54 AM BST
I hope all the group have a good(and profitable) day at Longchamp
Report Lampus October 5, 2025 12:58 PM BST
Thank You ANDREW   -  Diamond   GrinGrin
Report 11kv October 5, 2025 3:16 PM BST
Winner of the Arc as well,very well done.
Report stewarts rise October 5, 2025 3:17 PM BST
and also a win and place on Daryz trained by Francis Graffard who has a good draw and could still be improving.
  Well done Andrew great 2nd selection.
Report second again October 5, 2025 6:14 PM BST
Well done Andrew.Cool
Report SlippyBlue October 5, 2025 7:01 PM BST
Great work Andrew, bravo you.
Report Andrew-In-Sweden October 19, 2025 12:18 PM BST
Good afternoon Guys.

Many thanks for the posts, appreciated as always.

I will keep this short as i'm currently in Crawley (until early tomorrow morning) contemplating going to Kempton later. My initial thinking when i bought the flight ticket was the Ascot meeting yesterday, but in the end i didn't bother, a wise move as i wouldn't have won there.

My first posting since a 'War and Peace' Arc weekend review on October 3rd that produced several winners, including a couple at decent odds. The meeting started with a loser for me, a 120/180 lay of Tennessee Stud, but quickly recovered by backing the George Scott trained Caballo De Mar who won well (5.7 on PMU). Only fun bets thereafter on the Saturday.

A much better start on the Sunday with Diamond Necklace who could win a Guineas next year, but which one. My largest bet was on the Arab 'Frankel' Al Ghadeer who was a surprising 1.7 on the PMU and will surely win an unprecedented 3rd Triple Crown in Doha next February.

My AP bet on Aventure (25/1) was always going to be difficult from stall 12, but my favourite French trainer Francis Graffard won the Arc with Daryz (17 on PMU). Zarigana couldn't reel in Maronoa Charlier in the Prix Foret, a trip that is too short for her.

A fantastic weekend with very good friends including 4 posters and for those who have never been to Longchamp for the Arc, i can recommend it, for me the best weekend of flat racing anywhere.

On to this afternoon, i think Burdett Road will win at Kempton (15.50) although Rubaud who likes the course is a decent rival. BR is 2lb higher in the ratings and receives another 2lb, i think he probably has a little bit more class than his older rival. He's not a bad hurdler on his day. Currently around 2.20.

I thought the J/T Gosden trained Rainbows Edge was short enough at Longchanp (14.50) down in trip and with a high draw (12). Liquidity is always low on non-Arc weekend French racing, but is a general 2/1 with the books.

Mr Spreadsheet/Stewart

My streak down the Longchamp straight was never going to happen in reality of course, but i wouldn't have heard the last of it if Sunnway had won Laugh.

Good luck and have a nice Sunday all.
Report second again October 19, 2025 3:17 PM BST
Hi Andrew, My only bet today has been on Rubaud this morning, but as the day has progressed I am feeling less confident. I think Rubaud's hurdle form is superior to Burdett Road's but the recent flat run could swing it in your favour.I will not lay it off though and will take my medicine if it is beaten. Enjoy your day whether at Kempton or not.
Report doorman99 October 19, 2025 4:36 PM BST
Well done SA, Burdett looking a shadow of what he was.
Report Andrew-In-Sweden October 19, 2025 9:45 PM BST
Good evening Guys,

Second again/Doorman 69, many thanks for the posts and WD with the winner (SA) more so as it was your only bet. No excuses for Burdett Road who bunny-hopped the first couple and even though he loomed up before the second last, i never really thought he was going to get past Rubaud who was well backed. As Doorman intimated, he may have regressed a little.

After the Lord Mayors show with my Arc weekend post, a disappointing one today with the lay selection also winning, although it could be said that Mickael Barzalona wasn't well positioned in the straight and was making ground up quickly close home.

I didn't go to Kempton in the end, the rain in Crawley was quite heavy, although i was starting to regret it when the fancied ones were winnng (first 5 favs went in) but whether i would have won there is another story. My next trip over will probably be the Tingle Creek weekend in December, although i plan to go to Dundalk if Agouti Bear runs on November 14th, as is likely. I've never been to the course, so another one ticked off over there.

Enjoy the evenng all.
Report Andrew-In-Sweden October 19, 2025 9:45 PM BST
Doorman99 !
Report second again October 20, 2025 6:32 AM BST
Cheers Doorman99,and I hope you have a good flight today Andrew. With your record I am usually much happier siding with you when you fancy one so I feel like I got away with one yesterday.LaughCool
Report Andrew-In-Sweden October 25, 2025 12:36 PM BST
Good afternoon Guys,

Second Again

Thanks, the flight was fine, but i was copped £48 for excess bagage by Easy Jet, my own fault though as i bought a few things, and to be fair i've got away with it enough times in the past.

A short post today as i'm pushed for time. Half decent cards, better than yesterday at least, although heavy/soft going at Doncaster and Newbury will have an impact on results. A couple of weeks ago i thought the AOB trained Benvenuto Celllini (Susan Magnier has been perusing Italian Art/History again) was the more likely winner on the Futurity, although i will not be backing him today, but he could still win on the going; a race best left to watch in my opinion. 

Passing Thought (14.00) is a tentative EW bet on the Newbury card and soft going shouldn't be an issue. Has to improve; rated no less than 17lb behind the favourite with group race experience, but thats why he's double fugure odds. Whether he's good enough to win we will see, but i can see him finishing in the front 3.

I like Stellar Sunrise in the Horris Hill (3.10) on the same card, although soft going is a quandary and he has to improve to win, although this is likely. Rated 12lb less than the Godophin favourite, but is on a par with that one using RPR. Only a nursery that he win at York LTO, albeit a decent one and he looked good. Currently trading around 13/2 with the books.

For those who like shorties, look no further than Give It To Me OJ (3-30 Cheltenham) who is going for a 5-timer under both codes and will surely be seen on this course in March 2026. His last win over hurdles at Sandown would be good enough to win here, but he's priced accordingly.

I haven't seen a lay under 5/2 i would be overly confident about, but Rare Edition (4.30 Kelso) was one i looked at last night, conceding a lot of weight, and ignoring his first race with a rating of 130, all subsequent runs have been between 136 and 139, not really progressing. A trappy handicap where layers have 4 valid rivals on their side.

Good luck and have a nice Saturday all.
Report Andrew-In-Sweden October 26, 2025 1:52 PM GMT
Good Afternoon Guys,

Mixed results from my post yesterday with the 2 EW selections both finishing unplaced, 5th and 7th (5/1 and 12/1 (respectively) but it was good was see the forums inform poster George B also selecting it to give credence to my selection. I mentioned the going would be soft at Newbury and winning times suggest it was hard work with the standard times between 6.95 and 16.42 seconds slow, so possible excuses.

My other 2 selections were well backed, the shortie won and the lay selection finished second to save the day.

On to this afternoon, the domestic meetings look half decent for a Sunday, but pride of place has to go to Saint Cloud in France with 7 Group races if you include the Arab one. The only Paris course i have not visited and i would love to be there this afternoon. The meeting has already started so i will concentrate on the G1 Prix Royal Oak (2.50) that i plan to have a bet in.

Older posters may remember previous winners Ardross, Royal Gait, Vinnie Roe and Westerner, the latter winning twice. Several others have achieved the same feat, but never 3 times, although Double Major will be well fancied to make it a hat trick.

My fancy is the George Scott trained Caballo De Mar who i have mentioned before on this thread. Winner of the G1 German St. Leger and more recently the G1 Prix Du Cadran at Longchamp on Arc Saturday (i was there and backed him) where he won cosily.

The horse is a credit to connections and since winning a class 5 handicap off a mark of 64 at Ayr in September last year, has won another 7 times graduating to group class and is now rated 112, an incredible 48 pounds improvement. Quite possibly the most consistent horse running this season with form figures of 11111212011 including that Ayr win and runner-up in the Chester cup. The 8th place 3 runs ago can be ignored, there were issues with the blindfold in the stalls and he was slowly away.

Very genuine, doesn't have an electric turn of foot as such, but stays on very strongly. I expect Double Major to take them along and he's not easy to pass when on song, but Tom can sit handily, maybe front 3 and go on before the 200 metre pole to win.

If there is a concern, he's been on tbe go since March and this will be his 10th run this year, but he seems to take his racing well. Maybe there is a valid challenger to Trawlerman next year.

Good luck and have a nice Sunday all.
Report Lampus October 26, 2025 2:19 PM GMT
Thank you ANDREW  Grin
Report Andrew-In-Sweden October 26, 2025 3:10 PM GMT
Cheers Lampus, but a wasted 15 minutes really. CDM finished last and was struggling from some way out, even Sunway passed him in the straight. Maybe one race too many this season, but hopefully he retains form in 2026.

Changing topic, our horse Calibos is in the HIT sale on Tuesday, Lot 435 and if sold, we will be purchasing another as per our normal syndicate format. Dan and Claire Kübler are not taking any new ones and will remain in Bahrain until March/April so we have another trainer, this time in Newmarket.

Have a nice Sunday all
Report PHS October 26, 2025 5:54 PM GMT
I'm sure it'll be no consolation, but I backed one I thought sure would place yesterday and it also finished last.
Report Andrew-In-Sweden October 28, 2025 11:10 AM GMT
Morning Guys,

PHS, thanks, i guess we've all backed a runner that finished last at some time, part of the game really, just a poor choice by me Laugh

Changing topic, Calibos was sold for 15,000 Guineas at the HIT sales this morning, bought by Jo Davis. The concensous amongst us was for lower as he hadn't run well since winning easily at Windsor, probably due to 3 runs in 25 days. We had a lot of fun with him and he will be missed, but at least we can follow his exploits through the winter. We are looking for a replacement at the same sale this week.
Report formoftheace October 28, 2025 11:14 AM GMT
Most punters experience their selection disappear out the back of the tv Andrew….tbf.
Report GLASGOWCALLING October 28, 2025 12:12 PM GMT
With hindsight Andrew I would guess that Calibos would have made more if it wasnt for his last run ?

   Obviously the Trainer and syndicate had their reasons, good luck with any future purchases.
Report Andrew-In-Sweden October 29, 2025 10:36 AM GMT
Good morning Guys,

FOTR and GC, thank you.

Glasgow, i think the win at Windsor took a lot out of him (won easily by 4L) one week later he ran in a stronger race at the same course and was well beaten. 3 races in 25 days didn't help either, so i agree he would have made more with a less arduous program. We were surprised at the 15K sale price, in fact a few of us were thinking of single figures, but it worked out OK in the end. With respect to sales only, we made 12K profit on Salamanca Lad and a 3K loss on Calibos, so looking good, and together they provided over31K in prize money and we get the VAT back on everything.

Calibos is now with Jo Davis and will go hurdling, not a surprise, considering his size, he could do well at the winter game.

2 horses, 4 wins and 12 places in top 3 so no complaints with Dan and Claire Kübler, some owners never experience a win. I think you know i also have another winner, Agouti Bear in Ireland (different syndicate) and she could run in Mid-November.

We have a new traner (Newmarket) but i will give details when we have purchased another at the HIT sales this week (assuming we do of course).

Good luck and have a nice Tuesday all.
Report Andrew-In-Sweden October 29, 2025 10:38 AM GMT
Wednesday ! Laugh
Report Andrew-In-Sweden October 31, 2025 6:56 PM GMT
Good evening Guys,

Breeders Cup weekend has already started and although i rarely lay or back anything running at the regular USA meetings, i do with this one and i have already laid True Love in the Juvenile Turf Sprint (21.45). AOB could win the boat race at the moment, such is the stable form and he could win this race, albeit not with the favourite.

I actually like the filly and have backed her in a few previous races, but i feel she's up against it for several reasons. Del Mar is is a tight oval akin to Hinckley Greyhound flapping track, she's never been around a bend as such (at least on course). Drawn in stall 9 although theoretically 8 as there's a NR in stall 2. Is she a 5f filly ? I have my doubts even though she won over the trip at RA, and this race may have been an afterthought anyway. Currently around 3/1 and 7/2 with the books, she's a lay bet to me.

For those that like outsiders, maybe the pre-mentioned trainers son could oblige with the progressive Kingman filly Queen Of Hawaii (23.05) who is going for a hat-trick. A very open field, but she has a plum draw and could spring at surprise at double figure odds.

Changing topic, our syndicate Fellowship Racing bought a replacement for Calibos at the HIT sales yesterday. A once raced, 2 year old Kodi Bear filly, Lady Of Clover (ex-Al Shaqab owned) and will be trained by George Scott in Newmarket. I plan to visit the stable with another potential owner (poster on here) maybe as early as next weekend.

Speaking of ownership, Salamanca Lad who we sold in 2024 won again in Bahrain this afternoon, perhaps we should have kept him.

Good luck and have a nice evening all.
Report Andrew-In-Sweden October 31, 2025 6:58 PM GMT
Queen of Hawaii odds reduced due to favourite a NR
Report Andrew-In-Sweden October 31, 2025 6:58 PM GMT
Queen of Hawaii odds reduced due to favourite a NR
Report gazza66 November 1, 2025 6:45 PM GMT
Thanks for your thoughts AIS, fortunately I read them after the races had been run. Sounds like Salamanca Lad should have been sold later, c'est la vie. When you said he had won in Bahrain I was expecting you to have missed out quite substantially financially and was surprised to see he only won 1.5K GBP.  Good luck with Lady of Clover I will keep an eye out on her progress.
Report Andrew-In-Sweden November 2, 2025 12:42 PM GMT
Good afternoon Guys,

Gazza, thanks.

Salamanca Lad won 2400 Bahrain Dinars for winning last week, that converted is £4,861.

The RP is not up to date with his form since leaving Dan and Claire, but he's actually run 8 times in Bahrain, winning twice and placing 4 times so paying his way. The other win was worth the same amount and a couple of races more, one of them 8400 to the winner (£17,014).

I wouldn't have a clue how the Bahrain form stands up, but he's a genuine horse, won 3 times for us (almost 4) and i think he would have had we kept him, but conditions of the syndicate are such we buy for 1 year, then sell, each time at the Newmarket HIT sales in October.

Calibos has settled in well in his new surroundings and he will be running over hurdles in due course.

On to this afternoon, several shorties and i've already backed one of them, the Ben Pauling Handstands (2.37 Carlisle) although he has a decent rival in Resplendent Grey, although this one probalby wants further. Favoured by the race conditions, Handstands is generally a decent jumper, although the fences are easy at Carlisle and the going will be fine. Assuming he's fit enough (runs well fresh) i expect him to win, but it will be a good race with 2 very munch in form trainers and jockeys. Currently trading at 1.93.

True Love finished down the field at Del Mar on Friday and i have a potential lay selecton shortie that i will post separately.

Good luck and have a nice Sunday all.
Report Andrew-In-Sweden November 2, 2025 1:06 PM GMT
Lay Post

Paggane - 13.32 Carlisle

A 6 year old Muhaarar mare trianed by Faye Bramly in Lambourn.

Did well for Willie Mullins winning 3 including a chase. Switched stables in the summer and has since run 3 times on the flat with form figures of 3-4-2.

Her jumping was sketchy at times although did improve for her previous 2 runs and these are easy fences, but i think she would prefer further; however, my primary reason for laying is she meets a rival i fancy to win in Telepathique who runs well fresh and will probably make the running.

The Irish raider Speculatrix is not out of it either, likewise with Apples Away, so layers have 3 on their side.

No doubt she will win for her new connections in time, but i don't think it will be this afternoon.

Not the level of my usual reasoning, but i'm content with the selection.

Lay @ 2.94

Good luck all.
Report Lampus November 2, 2025 1:20 PM GMT
Thank you ANDREW Grin
Report second again November 2, 2025 1:23 PM GMT
Good luck Andrew.
Report stewarts rise November 2, 2025 1:34 PM GMT
Lets hope you're not eating humble " Bramley Apple Pie", after this Andrew, Good luck.
Report BESTMATE44 November 2, 2025 1:46 PM GMT
Cobdens only ride,i should have done my homework!
Report Andrew-In-Sweden November 2, 2025 2:03 PM GMT
I got it well wrong, although i was aware it was Harrys only ride. I was hoping Telepathaqic would lead, the times he hasn't was beaten. Paggane was well backed and won accordingly.

Stewarts, by the bucket Laugh
Report Andrew-In-Sweden November 23, 2025 11:55 AM GMT
Good afternoon Guys,

My first post in 3 weeks, primarily due to travel at weekends (London and Dublin) and workload on weekdays, but i'm relaxing at home with racing channels this afternoon and will go to Kennedy sportsbar to watch the North London football derby there later.

I was in Ireland last weekend, arrived at Dublin in atrocious weather on the Friday (Storm Claudia) after a very bumpy landing. My initial plan was to watch Agouti Bear run at Dundalk the same evening, but she wasn't declared although i knew this beforehand. I met the poster Workrider and we went to Danny Murphys stable to see her, a first for my daughter. Unfortunately the Navan meeeting was cancelled on the Saturday otherwise i would have gone, but at least it gave me chance to be a tourist in the city and i probably saw more in 2+ days than all my previous visits put together. As mentioned in posts before, a lovely city with lovely, friendly people, really recommended.

Our ex-syndicate horse Calibos is settling into his new surroundings with Jo Davis near Swindon and may be running over hurdles soon. We have a replacement, a once raced 3 year old filly who will be trained by George Scott in Newmarket, although i haven't signed on the dotted line yet.

Calibos is unlikely to be good enough to run in the Cheltenham Triumph Hurdle, but never say never and similar rated horses have run it it, so fingers crossed. A race i like and in recent years have put up (and backed) Vauban and Lossiemouth before they even ran in Ireland. I may have found another in Parchment, a 3 year French bred now with David Pipe. Good reports about this one after being sold out of the Noel George stable. Carries a penalty for the win at Clairefontaine where he was favourite (17/5) in a newcomers hurdle over 17f on soft going. Raced from rear of the field until moving up 4 flights from home, and before 2 out where he went to the rail and made eye catching headway to join the leaders and go on at the last. Had to be kept up to his work on the run-in, but won cosily and could be decent. Makes his GB debut in the opener at Kempton (12.25) tomorrow and if he wins will be much lower odds. Could be a trade at least, currently 25/1 (i've backed already).

For those that like shorties, i think Fleur In The Park is a worthy favourite in the Grade 2 novices chase at Punchestown 2.27). He won well at Wexford LTO and although running over various longer trips since November last year all 3 wins have been over 16.5f and 16f, the trip this afternoon. Jumped better in his 2nd chase and his main rival Westport Cove would probably prefer better going and is prone to errors. Westport Cove will probably make the running, but i expect the favourite to pick him up late on. I was even considering to lay WC, but he has drifted a little.

Good luck and have a nice Sunday all.
Report second again November 23, 2025 3:03 PM GMT
Fleur was unlucky ,a more fluent jump at the last and she would have won I think. Enjoy the rest of your day off and the football. When I was in Munich in the early 70's most pubs would have 1860's colours on the walls. Bayern were by far the smaller club in the city before the Kaiser changed them into the giants of German football.
Report freddiewilliams November 23, 2025 3:09 PM GMT
Fleur would not have won with a more fluent jump at last.
Report leif November 23, 2025 5:03 PM GMT
I may have found another in Parchment, a 3 year French bred now with David Pipe.

The dogs have been barking for months.Pipey quite coy when asked about the thing.
Report Andrew-In-Sweden November 23, 2025 7:04 PM GMT
Good evening Guys,

Fleur In The Park looked the likely winner (1.02 IR) after going to the final fence with a lead, wasn't fluent, but fair play to Westport Cove who stayed on well under a Paul Townend drive to win by a neck. That's racing.

Second again

TSV 1860 München and BM are fierce rivals as you you expect, but have actually shared 3 local stadiums including the Allianz back in time. BM have become one of the strongest teams in Europe, but 1860 have not done well and now play in Liga 3. I've beeen lucky enough to see 3 games at the Allianz, including one against Inter Milan, but tickets for BM home games are so hard to get, even though i'm registered with them, although i wouldn't class myself as a supporter by any means. That tag goes to Bristol City who i have supported since childhood.

Leif

If the dogs are barking for Parchment and it's the next coming, why is it still 25/1 with the books ? He won well at Clairefontaine in a race for newcomers (watch the VR) but many once raced winners over there get mentioned in the media after being bought to race over here. It doesn't mean anything, look at Bunting bought by Tony Bloom last year, but at the odds i was prepared to lay out £30 win. If it runs poorly at Kempton tomorrow, i will cetainly not be losing any sleep.

2025 Lay P/L Status (including November 2nd loss)

Current Progress 7/10
Running Form WWLWWWWWLL
Daily Loss -£97
Running P/L 3 +£74


2 losses in a row Cry

Note the Running Form refers to the bet, not the race result
Report leif November 23, 2025 7:45 PM GMT
I've not said it's the 'next coming' merely stating that the horse has been touted as potentially useful for months and therein didn't take much finding.
Hence it arrives on UK dayboot as a two's on chance early doors.
It beat subsequent winners on its French dayboot and could easily win by 20L or get beat by a similar margin.
Ya pays ya money, and take ya chance.
Report leif November 24, 2025 8:32 PM GMT
Turns out it was "a similar margin"
talking horse all hype no substance, alas.
Report Andrew-In-Sweden November 25, 2025 11:12 AM GMT
Leif,

Sure, i tend to agree with you based on what we saw yesterday, and it's well odds-on i have kissed goodbye to £30.

I often watch French VR's (although more on the flat) and had seen quite a few featuring horses that had been bought for racing here and Ireland, including a couple by WPM (the runner-up in Parchments winning race has gone to Paul Nicholls). I liked what i saw, media reports were positive and thought it was worth a punt at the 25/1, if it had been 10's i probably wouldn't have bothered.

C'est la vie, i got it wrong, that's racing, but only a small loss and my only AP bet for Cheltenham to date.
Report PHS November 29, 2025 10:15 AM GMT
ttt
Report Andrew-In-Sweden November 30, 2025 12:56 PM GMT
Good afternoon Guys,

PHS thanks for the ttt yesterday, but i was in transit on my way home to Linköping, i couldn't even watch the only race i had an interest in at Newcastle.

Unfortunately the Constitution Hill jumping issues continue to blight the career of one described by many as potentially the best ever after winning the CH in 2023. Back in time i always considered Night Nurse to be the best hurdler, but not after the latter named race i posted that i didn't think he would be beaten in a clean race; i got that wrong, but only once and in a race that was an afterthought.

CH was never the best jumper of a hurdle and was caught out several times before he actually fell, but was probably the fastest and a joy to watch when he was good. He had an engine to go with it, and my favourite live NH moment was at Cheltenham when he loomed up to join the leader rounding the final bend travelling easily, i was in no doubt at that point he was going to win. It was my largest NH bet ever.

I lost backing the 2TBP, won on the lay of Anzadam (a losing race) as posted yesterday morning on the Rico thread). I don't want to appear to be blasé about losing, but the money wasn't important, i really wanted him to win for racings sake. Unfortunately, we may have seen his last race and i feel this is the right decision. He could race at Auteuil, left handed, flat with brush flights, albeit not the Champion Hurdle as the distance is 25f+, in fact the shortest Grade 1 over there is 18f and that's in November. There are a couple of grade 3's earlier in the year, but i doubt he will go over. As for chasing, forget it. A 9 year old on the flat, where does he go. If i was Michael Buckley, i would retire him, he doesn't owe him, or me, anything.

On to this afternoon, 21 races and 9 of them (possibly 10) with an odds-on favourite. Not all will win of course, but i think Teeauptoo is the safest bet around evens at Fairyhouse (2.35). If i do bet, this will be my only one, as good as the Fairyhouse card is.

Good luck all and have a nice Sunday all.
Report Andrew-In-Sweden November 30, 2025 12:58 PM GMT
............... NH moment was at Cheltenham 2023
Report PHS November 30, 2025 4:58 PM GMT
WD Andrew. Was 10/11 when I looked (5/6 B365) so left it up at BFSP and got 2.09.
Report PHS November 30, 2025 5:11 PM GMT
.... 8 winners today that might have been odds-on when you looked (8/15,4/6,6/5,5/6,8/13,8/15,Ev,4/7).
Report PHS November 30, 2025 5:43 PM GMT
Did anyone spot the one minute race time errorSilly
Report Andrew-In-Sweden November 30, 2025 5:52 PM GMT
PHS

Cheers and WD on the win.

As for the race time, they are always late off in Ireland. Laugh Seriously, i didn't even notice, but not the first time i've got the time wrong.
Report timberman December 14, 2025 10:38 AM GMT
Any thoughts today Andrew , your presence is missed , always one of the more interesting posters on this forum board . Regardless hope your well and have a nice Christmas
Report PHS December 14, 2025 1:17 PM GMT
timberman,
At this time of the year, don't you mean 'Any thoughts today Andrew , your presents are missed'Laugh
Report top2rated December 20, 2025 10:45 AM GMT
Happy birthday, Andrew.
Report PHS December 24, 2025 7:32 PM GMT
Merry Christmas Andrew and allHappy
Report Andrew-In-Sweden December 26, 2025 11:10 AM GMT
Good morning Guys,

Timberman, thanks for the kind words and PHS/top2rated, thanks for the greetings although the birthdays appear to be coming far too often. Wink

My first post for a while, in fact my last was 30th November, primarily due to a manic workload, but also travelling to Sweden and Ireland, as well as racing at Sandown and pre-Christmas visits to family. Finally taking some time out and will probably return to the office on 7th January (1st and 6th are holidays anyway) so plenty of free time.

I went to Sandown for the Tingle Creek earlier this month and had a chat with a wet looking Simon Nott who had been caught in a sudden downpour. A good day for me as i primarily went for the race and the 800-1000 for II Etait Temp mentioned in his blog was mine, i also backed it AP on BF, albeit at a tad less than the eventual SP. IET won very easily irrespective of a nice move on the rail rounding the final bend by Paul Townend. If Sir Gino skips the champion chase as is likely, he must have a good chance of winning, but the course is a concern although he jumped like a pig in the Arkle behind Gaelic Warrior and still finished 3rd. One thing i was surprised at in the winner's enclosure, he's quite small for a chaser.

No idea when my next racecouse visit is, but the DRF at Leopardstown end of January is 100%, tickets and hotel already booked. Going with a few of the usual team and no doubt we will meet the poster Workrider there.

Several good days of racing in front of us and i did think about going over to Kempton, but decided to stay home and watch it from the comfort of my sofa. The KG (2.20) looks a cracking field, one of the most open for a while so it's surprising to read one poster who thinks it's poor. My heart wants II Est Francais to win, one of my fav chasers, but with his bleeding issues it needs an act of faith to back him.

There's pace in the field and it's possible a few will be out of their comfort zone early; Harry will take the field along on IEF and if he gets into a good rythm could still be in contention 2 out, but will he be in front at the line, not impossible, but doubtful. I've already laid the likely favourite Gaelic Warrior, as much as i like the horse, but he will not get an easy lead here, although he doesn't have to of course. If i had to pick the winner, it would be Jango Baie, but my only bet is the lay of GW. There's an interesting, but sad interview with owner Tony Bewley on the Unbridled podcast with Matt Chapman and Paddy Brennan relating to the horse and association with his son's fatal accident, worth a listen.

My only other bet so far is Kitzbuhl on the same card (1,20) who has a bit in hand of these on ratings although has stamina to prove, but he was staying on well at Sandown over 21.5f. Alan Potts made an interesting comment in an email that he really had to go to Kempton as the only right handed G1 novice chase in Ireland is not until Punchestown or Fairyhouse in April. Speaking of AP, for those who like to read his views, he was recently interviewed by Chris Cook that will be published in the RP in January, possibly as early as the 5th.

For shortie backers, i think Romeo Coolio is decent and a potential Arkle winner if he wins at Leopardstown (2.20). Dropping back in distance, but won a G1 hurdle over the trip on this card last year. I was impressed with his win LTO where he jumped and travelled well. Was beaten by Salvator Mundi at Aintree last season, but only went down on the run-in and that was over hurdles. I expect him to win this afternoon.

Our Fellowship Racing owned Calibos, sold at the HIT sales in October is now with Jo Davis (had her first winner of the season, Benvoy at Huntingdon on Tuesday) and will make his hurdle debut probably in the middle of January. He's certainly built like a NH horse, so fingers crossed he takes to the new discipline. Our new replacment is a once raced, 2 year old filly, Lady Of Clover at George Scotts' stable in Newmarket, she will have a couple of AW runs to get a handicap mark, before a turf run early in the season.

My other one with Kildare Racing in Ireland, the filly Agouti Bear has been sold in a private sale.

Wishing everyone a wonderful Boxing day with your loved ones (and not so loved ones Laugh). Good luck with any bets.
Report Lampus December 26, 2025 11:17 AM GMT
Thank you ANDREW  Excited
Report Lampus December 26, 2025 2:39 PM GMT
THANK YOU  ANDREW  GrinGrinGrin
Report Lampus December 26, 2025 2:40 PM GMT
3/3
Report PHS January 9, 2026 12:22 PM GMT
9th January and no new thread up. Shocking AndrewSilly
Report Trusty January 9, 2026 1:00 PM GMT
Unfortunately we don't see much from AIS anymore. Think his whatsapp group has taken over his attention and frankly his insight is missed as is Alan P's.
Report TommyWestofLanark January 9, 2026 6:20 PM GMT
Agreed Trusty.
Report Andrew-In-Sweden January 10, 2026 12:59 PM GMT
Good afternoon Guys,

A belated happy new year to all.

Many thanks for the posts, much appreciated and good to know there are still a few readers.

Trusty you made a valid point and are obviously aware of my WhatsApp group i started in October 2021 with a few posters that met up at Newmarket. It has grown to 11 members that meet up several times a year; we also have also specific groups for the DRF and Arc festivals we attend and many of us are part of those with Dan/Claire Kübler and George Scott for our Fellowship Racing syndicate.

The forum is not what it was, certainly compared to April 2018 when i started my first lay thread, partly due to sad passing of a few posters and some who probably got fed up with the childish arguments that appear far too often. A pity because there have been some positive/informative posters over the years (and still are) including Alan Potts who often posted on my threads. I'm in regular contact with him via email and a few of us have met up with him on course.

Workload is also a constraint, in 2018 i was only working (freelance) for Saab Aerospace in Linköping, but now i have 3 clients, 2 of them on the Air Tech campus West of München, although 2026 may be my last year there.

I enjoy posting on here when i get the time, but several of us post on the WhatsApp group almost daily, albeit quite often it's only banter. A decent bunch of guys and we get on really well. I don't want to be overly negative though, the forum has been a positive, i doubt i would have got into syndicate ownership without it, and to date i have met no less than 13 posters on course and made new friends.

I will be creating a new 2026 thread, maybe starting tomorrow, albeit without 'lay' in the heading, but i will continue with them.

My Boxing day post turned out well (3/3) and although i haven't had many bets since the festive and NY break has been profitable, although i may havee got lucky with the lay of Gaelic Warrior in the KG. Kitzbuhel is one i took from all the major races over the festive season, he jumped really well and wouldn't have to improve significantly to be a contender for the KG. I guess i will see him at the DRF, he could be running against Final Demand on the Sunday. I'm looking forward to Romeo Coolio and hoping he runs in the Irish and Cheltenham Arkle, but will he. 

On to this afternoon, i don't fancy anything strongly, but there is a runner at Chantilly (1.15) i like, the Christopher Head trained Tchirakhova who was favourite on her debut run last month and ran well to finish 2nd, only beaten a head over an extended 9f. Broke smartly, made all and looked the winner when quickening approaching the 1f pole but was just caught close home. The drop back in trip to 8f may be a positive. One of 2 mounts for Soumillon. Currently best priced at 11/4 with a few books, but i think she will be shorter.

In the Lanzarote at Kempton (3.17) the top weight French Ship will have to be decent to win off a mark of 146, but he could be a group horse in a handicap. Winner of 4 in his previous 6 runs and it could have been 5 but for unseating his jockey. Only ran at Kempton once, well beaten in a bumper last year and most of his runs have been left handed, but has run well at Taunton. I will play a small win and 3/TBP for the stake.

Good luck and have a nice Saturday all.
Report Lampus January 10, 2026 1:07 PM GMT
Thank you ANDREW G/L  Grin
Report TommyWestofLanark January 10, 2026 1:36 PM GMT
Thanks Andrew and a happy and healthy 2026.Happy
Report stewarts rise January 10, 2026 1:44 PM GMT
Happy and prosperous  New Year Andrew, do you know your final P/L for 25? Time to start a new 26 thread, best wishes.
Report PHS January 10, 2026 2:38 PM GMT
Happy New Year AndrewHappy
Report Early Morning Riser January 10, 2026 3:41 PM GMT
Happy new year Andrew.
Report Andrew-In-Sweden January 18, 2026 12:20 PM GMT
Good afternoon Guys,

Many thanks for the posts/NY greetings.

A couple of poor selections a week ago to end this thread and no real excuses for either. At Chantilly Tchirikhova was heavily backed and 11/4 with some of the books was long gone at the time of posting, but i didn't expect her to be as short as the eventual PMU odds of 9/10. Taken on for the lead she was still in contention 300 metres out, but ran on at the one pace and finished 8th, beaten 5L although Soumillon was easy on her. It was her first run on the AW and she was dropped in trip, so maybe too soon to right her off.

In the Lanzarote at Kempton, French Ships' task was always going to be difficult off a mark of 146 (top weight) and so it proved. Always prominent, but faded before 2 out where a mistake didn't help, although it had no bearing on the result. Stayed on to finish 7th, but never really looked like winning. Probably not good enough for the stayers at Cheltenham (if he runs) but will be winning again in future.

Interesting cards today, although nothing jumped off the page, but i thought Salver (Windsor 1.20) was short enough at odds of 3.20 even though he may be the classiest in the field. Not the most fluent of chasers and it's a half decent field where none of them can be discounted.

Stewarts Rise,

My last lay post was on 2nd November (Paggane won @ 13/8f) the P/L status thereafter was +£74 for the year, but it's of no consequence at all considering the lack of selections. Prior to this the P/L was +£250 (17th August) but 2 losers in a row reduced this.

I will start a new thread in due course, but i'm home in Linköping this coming weekend and in Dubin on the 30th for the DRF.

Have a nice Sunday and good luck all.
Report adamanty January 19, 2026 12:40 PM GMT
Looking forward to more comments from you Andrew, always a knowledgeable post and good luck for this year.
Report Andrew-In-Sweden January 30, 2026 7:17 AM GMT
Good Morning Guys,

Adamanty, many thanks for the kind words, much appreciated. Happy

I'm off to Dublin this morning (KLM permitting) hopefully the DRF meeting is still on after more rain last night. Meeting up with 3 posters and really looking forward to it.

I will start a new 2026 thread tomorrow morning, so this one can drop off the page into the Betfiar vault.

Good luck and have a nice Friday all.
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