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Cannot see him running in the grand national, for several reasons, too soon after Cheltenham, and protecting his long time future, more gold cups etc
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Obvious why the post are so positive. It survives and so do the plethora of "journalists" who get there income on the back of bookmaker advertising. Promoting a 3/1 fav for the National(Ante Post all in run or not) that is @ best 50/50 to run makes a lovely field book for the paymasters.Jp has a handfull of other candidates with a chance as does Cromwell.Theres many big prizes still to be won with Inow the way... not including the national., and i assume the handbrake now its been released will be done so for the future.
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Geoff somebody asked me yesterday can I ever remember a horse not been of in its race prior to winning the gold cup my reply was this hasn’t been of in its 3 races prior to winning a gold cup.
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I'd agreee jimnast, I would say the grand national was the original plan, then he got that close to Gallopin de Champs at Leopardstown, when he wasn't fully tuned / protecting his mark as the Grand National was the plan. I would guess Keith got off and said he should be going for the gold cup.
They would obviously have wanted to see he was spot on before supplementing and no injuries so left it until so late. Given he has done what he has now though he looks an absolute monster. GDC beat Gentlemans Game (160) by 12 lengths, Monty's Star also 160 rated 1 and a quarter length back then The Real Whacker (159) 20L off. It doesn't look absolutely like GDC has not run to form and had a shocker like some pundits were seeming to suggest, though the ground would probably not have been in his favour. The horse to me that's not run its race / not stayed is Banbridge. I would say Mark Walsh gave the horse a lovely ride and had the benefit of just aiming at beating GDC, where as Paul Townend was in the mindset of he would win if he stayed up and probably not positioned to best suit GDC. Yes GDC never pinged the fences but in his 4 races prior he had been beaten twice so its not like he has conquered all before him. Very nice position for JP as if they stay sound looks like he has very good Gold Cup and Ryanair winners. |
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probably think they have a well h'caped horse in Iroko so why run and maybe bottom him for next year.
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Next season,both Gold Cup & G.National?.If the gap between the races
is big enough. |
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penzance if they are definitely wanting him to run in the GN then you would say this is the year as I can't see him getting in again off 160 after the Gold Cup performace for a long time.
Does he have a penalty for winning the Gold Cup, I don't think he will? It would just be a catastrophe if he got the luck Syncronised did after that performance beating GDC as a 7 year old. I would argue that what he did at Cheltenham he wants looking after and aiming for as many Gold Cups as possible. |
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This has been discussed elsewhere.
The logic is that next year Inothewayurthinkin and Fact To File try to double up in the races they won so well this year. Increasingly, it looks as if the media are trying to bully the horse into the National, in some cases probably because they have backed it for the National, and not the Gold Cup. You would think they own the horse. They don't half talk some garbage. Luck this morning saying Fact To File 'could have gone round again'. No he couldn't, that's just nonsense talk. Those who wrongly pushed him down the Gold Cup should hang their heads rather than try and encourage the same mistake. There is nothing wrong with being a top class horse at the intermediate trip. It should be pretty obvious that JP already has the horse to beat in the Gold Cup who has proven that the trip is a plus. |
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It's obviously a massive boon/storyline/narrative for the sport if the gold cup winner runs in the national, never mind wins it. The national is in rapid decline, it needs some kind of boost.
I'll be very surprised to see him run, Cromwell is clearly very luke warm on it but doesn't want to get ahead of the owner. |
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The chance of this running here is as weak as selling Lossiemouth for the Champion Hurdle with Constitution Hill, State Man and Brighterdaysahead present. The triumph in the Gold cup is another major reason he's very unlikely this way bound; the Gold Cup run was a fact-finder where he'd go or his next probable target.
And, it is not in the Grand National, I'm almost certain. |
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I don't think most of those who watch one race a year will have heard of the Gold Cup, let alone Golden Miller. They certainly won't be reading that Racing Post headline or watching Luck On Sunday. Just be honest with people there has been nothing from Cromwell or JP that suggests the horse will run. So why create a load of hot air about something that is very unlikely to happen?
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Only if JP wants the historical legacy. Even multiple GC winners are nothing new, but the horse would seal his legacy in the sport to do the big double in the same season. Pretty sure if it's left up to Cromwell it will be skipped.
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If your job is to report/sell the narrative, then the cgc winner being the shortest price ever in the gn to create history then it's a very easy narrative to sell. Pretty obvious why those stakeholders are keen on it I'd say. Also obvious that JP won't be influenced by them.
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JP has publicly stated any decision would be more than a week later. This is a polite way of telling the press please leave us alone and no more question prior to this period. I'd construed this as negatively and as definitively to a no to a run. Also, it's less than 3 weeks to the National, and over 8f more.
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The temptation will be too great not to run. Gold cup run on practically good ground. Over a stone well in so it's now or never for the national. Did the Cheltenham aintree double last year when Cheltenham was nearly heavy. National takes little winning these days. 30 brush hurdles to negotiate. A young horses race now. Mcmanus has his money already down in all probability.History beckons. 8-11 he runs 11-8 he doesn't.
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Alverton is another who went to aintree after winning the gold cup
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Running the GDC winner is not positive for Cheltenham or NH racing; the National is over a vastly different distance, and a glorified handicap. If connections were that way inclined then run Inothewayurthinkin in a handicap prep race over 3m/3.5m next season.
Personally, it would be crass to run here just 3 weeks after winning the Blue Riband race in the most prestigious NH Festival. |
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JP doesn't need to be tempted. He has won the race before, doesn't need the money, and has many other entries. Far harder to get a Gold Cup horse than a Grand National one, and he lost his previous Gold Cup winner. I think the telling comment was 'he will do what's best for the horse'. You would be knocked over with that 11/8. It's massive odds on that he won't run.
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Slickster
Whilst I think we all agree the national isn’t the race it was but it still takes some winning |
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It's the mark that is obviously the one off. Highly unlikely to get an impressive gold cup winner in off such a lenient mark every again. The appeal isn't just getting a GC winner to run in the national same season, but one that looks so suited to it and is absolutely thrown in.
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What official mark would you put him on now, jim. 180 ?
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Circa 20lb well in for a £million race that also looks a perfect set up.
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Plenty of threads telling us the fences are nothing out of the ordinary these days so it's only the gap between races and the draw of Punchestown that's the stumbling block , as for winning the Gold cup once though you're still on the same list as Master Smudge but as someone stated earlier the Grand National is another fame level and the same season double would put the horse in the hall of fame.
Hope it runs ![]() |
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If you don't take to the fences and the race then it doesn't matter what weight you have got. His weakness is still his jumping. They have had to work really hard on that. Why would you want to risk jeopardising the progress they have made?
The other thing worth mentioning is that JP has just lost one of his better horses last week. |
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Still has Spillane's Tower in the bank, first world problems!
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A no brainer if he's fit and well, the National fences are upturned dandy brushes these days. But why was the vet looking at his legs in the winners enclosure when he booted her out of the way? Think they should do the weights for the National after Cheltenham rather than before.
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Got Iroko - 10-11,still in the frame aswell.
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JPM knows all the stats and is aiming to win the four remaining races at the festival.
Having the Gold Cup and National winner in the same year will be tempting, might not get another chance at it. |
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Cider I would say a little lower than 180
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JP has Iroko, I AM Maximus, Meetingofthewaters, Limerick Lace, Capodanno and Chantry House even without the Gold Cup winner.
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this the nag rico tipped up at 20/1?
wd rico. |
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i think it will run and why not - just go for it- 7 on here and not drifting
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Its well done Rico if youve now bailed out.
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i was intending betting it to win £10,000 geoff..was devvo when they supplemented it.
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Well it was ridden not to harm its hcap mark for national but ran that well they obviously thought they could @ least grab a place in the big one.So are yer sticking or bailing or have already bailed coz personnaly i cant see em running it now.Potential for another 2 gold cups now handbrakes off.
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Agree re his jumping , though was very good amongst horses in Gold Cup . Recovery would be the main factor influencing the decision followed by the inexperience factor . From a laying perspective hope it runs , but not optimistic .
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ive bailed my stake as was never gona get any value after winning the GC.
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if they do declare you'll have a steak dinner if it is 2-1 or 5/2
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im now +1500 or 0
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