Forums
Welcome to Live View – Take the tour to learn more
Start Tour
There is currently 1 person viewing this thread.
eric_morris
26 Feb 25 13:49
Joined:
Date Joined: 27 Jun 10
| Topic/replies: 9,119 | Blogger: eric_morris's blog
Someone just put £500 in the lay column at 5.0 for the Mares. Trying to lay their bet off at prices under that hoping their £500 isn’t taken?
Pause Switch to Standard View Brighterdaysahead decision Monday or...
Show More
Loading...
Report GLASGOWCALLING March 3, 2025 10:29 AM GMT
A 3/1 winner at Southwell pays the same as a 3/1 winner at Chelters. ... Just saying.!
Report eric_morris March 3, 2025 10:31 AM GMT
We know Lossiemouth loves it there with 3/3 wins.

Triumph Hurdle
Raced keenly, held up just off the pace in 5th, smooth headway out wide after 3 out, 2nd on bit before next, led turning in and switched out wide, came clear run-in, easily op 13/8

International Hurdle
Chased leaders, went 3rd 2 out, led travelling strongly approaching last, cleared away on bridle run-in, impressive op 8/15

Mares Hurdle
Waited with towards rear, smooth headway after 3 out, 3rd on bit turning in, went between horses before the last, led approaching last, quickened easily clear run-in tchd 4/6
Report GLASGOWCALLING March 3, 2025 10:39 AM GMT
What has the heavy fall done to Lossiemouths confidence ??
Report eric_morris March 3, 2025 10:44 AM GMT
I doubt it will have an effect tbh
Report howard March 3, 2025 10:49 AM GMT
Her confidence matters as much as my confidence when I take on Usain Bolt. She can be as confident as she likes.  CH is better than Night Nurse better than Sea Pigeon better than Istabraq.
Report differentdrum March 3, 2025 10:56 AM GMT
Excellent news, although there shouldn't really have been a decision to make. Concerned that Kennedy is back on board. He's only just returned, and Ewing was on board for by far her best performance. Contrast that with Kennedy being on board when she was beaten last year. Ewing also the more active rider of the two, and she is going to need a very positive ride.
Report Hibore March 3, 2025 11:12 AM GMT
Ticket sales will increase Tuesday…that is for sure. Could be a Champion Hurdle for the ages and will be great to say you were there.
Maybe some of the Benidorm crew will fly out Weds morning Laugh
Report differentdrum March 3, 2025 11:13 AM GMT
One person with a huge amount of egg to wipe off is one Kevin Blake. I think he wasted two articles trying to tell people there was next to no chance that Brighterdaysahead would turn up.
Report jimnast March 3, 2025 11:29 AM GMT
Yes hibore tickets sales should improve now not just for the reason you state but plenty of proper national hunt enthusiasts will really appreciate the naming of the supreme novice hurdle.
Report acey deucy March 3, 2025 11:35 AM GMT
acey deucy26 Feb 25 15:39
Elliott down on his knees begging O'Leary to run in her in The Champion Hurdle.....Forget about The Mares Race and dont forget where you heard it foyst.Cool
Report acey deucy March 3, 2025 11:37 AM GMT
acey deucy26 Feb 25 14:32Joined: 29 Sep 02 | Topic/replies: 31,838 | Blogger: acey deucy's blog
Will go for The Champion Hurdle i will stake my life on it.Wink
Rate reply
Report Autocue March 3, 2025 12:47 PM GMT
Elliot must be very confident. Can you imagine the conversation with O’Leary if she gets beat? “I told you we should be going for the ******* mares’ race you ******* cretin!” For example. It is a chink in her armour that she has no winning Cheltenham form. She has only had the one run there and I give her the excuse that the novice race was slowly run and she lost a sprint up the hill on soft ground. This year is very likely to be run on better ground and they obviously entered King of Kingsfield to ensure a strong pace. She is going into the race with the best form in the book this season. OK she has questions to answer but the others have more in my opinion. Now that her target is settled the attention swings to the inappropriately named Constitution Hill. Will he make it this year or will Henderson find a reason to take him out during the 8 day roller-coaster.
Report eric_morris March 3, 2025 12:55 PM GMT
If you lack pace i don’t think quicker ground does you any favours. Think for that reason it will be a strong pace needed for her so the other contenders are slowing right down when the pace is needed up the hill. Being such a stiff track it is going to be harder to pull off it’s not like any of the main contenders are going to be given a long piece of rope this time like State Man gave her.
Report Autocue March 3, 2025 1:11 PM GMT
Yes, if it comes to a sprint up the hill on good ground I suspect she’ll be beaten further than last year. She has proved this season she can maintain a strong gallop from start to finish. The others haven’t and that’s how the race is expected to pan out.
Report differentdrum March 3, 2025 1:19 PM GMT
A good version of State Man wouldn't have been able to maintain the pace that Brighterdaysahead went. He tried to go quick early in the Irish Champion, but ended up falling apart. 

Even if there isn't rain they will water to start on good to soft. If it is good, it won't be the intention. It's a dry week, but the last I heard that might break a little over the weekend.
Report impossible123 March 3, 2025 2:17 PM GMT
A good decision for racing. However, my money is on Constitution Hill (CH). My only reservation is his price. I've lay BDA at 5/2, and hopefully CH will go 7/4 (Denise perhaps) on the day with money from O'Learys' for BDA.

I'll be watching the race now. Good luck all!
Report geoff m March 3, 2025 2:24 PM GMT
C.Hill 7/4 impossible dont type whilst dreaming.
Report Autocue March 3, 2025 2:32 PM GMT
7/4 is possible before the race with the usual rumours concerning that stable.
Report GoBallistic March 3, 2025 2:35 PM GMT
I just had a look at the RP lineup and it's a bit of an eye-opener. Makes me re-think a bit. Their adj RPR ratings based on last 12 mths (with ratings for this NH season-proper) are:-

Brighterdaysahead  176  (166 => 171 => 176)
State Man  172  (170 => 145 => 166)
Lossiemouth  167  (162 => 163 => F)
Constitution Hill  166  (166 => 154)

I'm sure we can all have our quibbles about how individual race ratings could be at least a few lbs out but it sort of slaps you in the face that this may well be a race with an improving horse who is already well ahead of two previous winners who are nowhere near what they were. I'm sure there will be a lot of people opening their Racing Post next week wondering why the 8yo odds on fav is 10 lbs (!) behind the 6yo horse. May idea of the winner was Lossiemouth who is probably capable of better marks and ticks a lot of boxes but maybe that gap is just too much to make up.
Report impossible123 March 3, 2025 2:56 PM GMT
CH is 10/11 here. I think 6/4 --> 2/1 is possible if there is significant money for BDA. I'm expecting 'Denise' to go at least 6/4 super boost.
Report Hayden March 3, 2025 2:58 PM GMT
If you're a tenner punter it's madness to back any fav prior to the day , common sense really.
Report geoff m March 3, 2025 3:03 PM GMT
Can anyone enlighten me where state Man has shown a rating 5/6lb better  than Lossie & Con Hill in last 12 months.
Report duffy March 3, 2025 3:24 PM GMT
You could ask that question about his rating through his whole career, if you believe, as I do the rating should reflect what the horse beat in the race and the manner of it rather than applying it to the race title.
Report differentdrum March 3, 2025 3:28 PM GMT
Racing Post trying to take some credit for Brighterdaysahead running. Pitiful stuff. Wouldn't be surprised if most of their writers were on for the Mares' Hurdle. I certainly haven't read many of them talking up the Champion Hurdle chances. As for their ratings I have never felt the urge to use them for any purpose.
Report layingisthewayforward March 3, 2025 3:29 PM GMT
Lossie going to the mares?
Report geoff m March 3, 2025 3:30 PM GMT
Yes it is laughable different. Im sure Gordon & O Learys didnt think she had a prayer until they saw R.P ratings.
Report geoff m March 3, 2025 3:33 PM GMT
I dont think she will but a fair bit of the money for her is mine from the BDA. field money to balance the book.
Report MJK March 3, 2025 4:06 PM GMT

Mar 3, 2025 -- 3:28PM, differentdrum wrote:


Racing Post trying to take some credit for Brighterdaysahead running. Pitiful stuff. Wouldn't be surprised if most of their writers were on for the Mares' Hurdle. I certainly haven't read many of them talking up the Champion Hurdle chances. As for their ratings I have never felt the urge to use them for any purpose.


It's usually Chapman who indulges in that kind of stuff

Report Hibore March 3, 2025 4:56 PM GMT
Betting suggests Lossie going Mares ? Looks like someone knows something.
Report layingisthewayforward March 3, 2025 5:03 PM GMT
Glad BDA is going Champion. We'll get a better price about CH now .
Report differentdrum March 3, 2025 5:28 PM GMT
Lossiemouth was always going Champion Hurdle - or so we were continually told - while the doubt was about Brighterdaysahead. Has this got something to do with Townend insisting on riding State Man? He knows he won't win, but he probably thinks he can pick up a winning ride in the Mares'. It should make no difference to a long-term aim, but you do wonder.
Report duffy March 3, 2025 5:36 PM GMT
Fascinating race now particularly with how CH play it, we know that BDA will have to go out with her pacemaker, who isn't really a pacemaker as she will be going right with her, they just don't want her in front the whole way.

But do CH team assume that BDA will be able to keep it up the whole way and go with her "potentially" risking getting bust up or do they gamble that she won't be able to and sit some way off of it and save something thinking that she'll come back, The other thing that is crucial is will on a stiffer track KOK be able to take the mare far enough into the race before she is left to take up the donkey work herself as they have a concern that she doesn't enjoy being out making her own running for any period of time.
Report differentdrum March 3, 2025 5:42 PM GMT
I don't think Constitution Hill can afford to sit too far off the pace. I wouldn't want an odds on favourite ridden like that. Too negative.
Report duffy March 3, 2025 5:53 PM GMT
Neither do I, I think Lossie will though, I think on her as we've had the question raised that she isn't comfortable with a hectic pace through-out I think they will gamble for a pace collapse and those in front folding and her picking up the pieces and although I don't think it will happen it is deffo a scenario that is very much possible IMO, obv the last time fall is a big negative though but goes toward her not being asked to go like that again.
Report eric_morris March 3, 2025 6:45 PM GMT
This is why we are heading for the death of antepost at Cheltenham. One powerful stable who likely want the stable jockey to have the stables best ride in every race rather than doubling up runners in the race if there is any chance the other horse is better and can win.

differentdrum
differentdrum 03 Mar 25 17:28 Joined: 05 Oct 11 | Topic/replies: 19,353 | Blogger: differentdrum's blog
Lossiemouth was always going Champion Hurdle - or so we were continually told - while the doubt was about Brighterdaysahead. Has this got something to do with Townend insisting on riding State Man? He knows he won't win, but he probably thinks he can pick up a winning ride in the Mares'. It should make no difference to a long-term aim, but you do wonder
Report eric_morris March 3, 2025 6:47 PM GMT
I wouldn’t like to be an owner thinking my horse was the best stable chance in the race to have to bow to the stable jockey choice affecting whether they get a run and shunted to a less significant prize.
Report eric_morris March 3, 2025 6:55 PM GMT
Same with Energumene who needs soft is 11yo and beaten by the fav last time. Would Townend be on him from the stable if he wasn’t going for a hat trick in the race for the history books? Is another stable horse allowed to challenge him it is looking very like sacrificing other horses chances as they are going for the hat trick. Not saying he wont win but the aforesaid factors arent great.
Report 1st time poster March 3, 2025 7:00 PM GMT
the next arkle pipes bumper runner setback and not running
Report MJK March 3, 2025 7:21 PM GMT

Mar 3, 2025 -- 6:45PM, eric_morris wrote:


This is why we are heading for the death of antepost at Cheltenham. One powerful stable who likely want the stable jockey to have the stables best ride in every race rather than doubling up runners in the race if there is any chance the other horse is better and can win.differentdrumdifferentdrum 03 Mar 25 17:28 Joined: 05 Oct 11 | Topic/replies: 19,353 | Blogger: differentdrum's blogLossiemouth was always going Champion Hurdle - or so we were continually told - while the doubt was about Brighterdaysahead. Has this got something to do with Townend insisting on riding State Man? He knows he won't win, but he probably thinks he can pick up a winning ride in the Mares'. It should make no difference to a long-term aim, but you do wonder


To be fair that has never been the case with Mullins/Townend. Perhaps Ruby got his way in that respect when persuading Mullins to run elsewhere so he could ride them all. As for Lossiemouth the fact is that State Man can only run in one of the races, whereas Lossiemouth can run in two.

Report paulo47 March 3, 2025 7:24 PM GMT
Joyeuse being supplemented for the Mares puts anotherspanner in the works .
Report eric_morris March 3, 2025 8:31 PM GMT
If Lossiemouth goes Mares it is for the jockey to be able to ride the reigning Champion and have the best ride in both surely? Lossiemouth has a much better chance in the Champion Hurdle on recent form. She was odds on recently to beat State Man before falling also.

Just because the stable jockey wants to remain loyal to connections of last years winner does that mean another stable owner should lose out who may have a better horse for the race? I think both will run but not sure what Townend will do he can’t realistically believe State Man can turn around form with Constitution Hill and Brighterdaysahead.
Report eric_morris March 3, 2025 8:31 PM GMT
If Lossiemouth goes Mares it is for the jockey to be able to ride the reigning Champion and have the best ride in both surely? Lossiemouth has a much better chance in the Champion Hurdle on recent form. She was odds on recently to beat State Man before falling also.

Just because the stable jockey wants to remain loyal to connections of last years winner does that mean another stable owner should lose out who may have a better horse for the race? I think both will run but not sure what Townend will do he can’t realistically believe State Man can turn around form with Constitution Hill and Brighterdaysahead.
Report eric_morris March 3, 2025 8:34 PM GMT
Imteresting just watching todays Unibet preview recording with Nicky Henderson and Pricewise Tom Segal on youtube. Segal is saying he doesn’t think BDA likes the track and never acted on it from the start when coming second at last festival. Lossiemouth should be i; the Champion Hurdle she could be the only one putting it up to Constitution Hill up the hill.
Report eric_morris March 3, 2025 8:36 PM GMT
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GE0kAP1qBj4
Report eric_morris March 3, 2025 8:40 PM GMT
Segal says Lossiemouth loves the course and is the danger, they will go fast and be set up for her to come from behind.
Report MJK March 3, 2025 8:41 PM GMT

Mar 3, 2025 -- 8:31PM, eric_morris wrote:


If Lossiemouth goes Mares it is for the jockey to be able to ride the reigning Champion and have the best ride in both surely? Lossiemouth has a much better chance in the Champion Hurdle on recent form. She was odds on recently to beat State Man before falling also.Just because the stable jockey wants to remain loyal to connections of last years winner does that mean another stable owner should lose out who may have a better horse for the race? I think both will run but not sure what Townend will do he can’t realistically believe State Man can turn around form with Constitution Hill and Brighterdaysahead.


At any big meeting when is the last time Mullins didn't run two just so the jockey can ride one of them in another race?

Report differentdrum March 3, 2025 8:49 PM GMT
When have we had this scenario before? I can't remember one.

As for following Segal's ideas, bookmakers must love him over these four days. He just isn't very good at all. He and his ilk are always looking to say something different. Whatever happened to Brighterdaysahead last year she is much improved this year, and the race will be run very differently. I would be very surprised if she is beaten by Lossiemouth.
Report eric_morris March 3, 2025 8:50 PM GMT
I think they will both run and Townend will switch to Lossiemouth but i may be wrong.
Report Angela Rebecchi March 3, 2025 8:51 PM GMT
Segal is very clueless and done very well to make a living out of quoting inflated bookie prices. I imagine his PnL from Exchanges SPs is atrocious
Report eric_morris March 3, 2025 8:52 PM GMT
35 mins 50 sec in.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GE0kAP1qBj4
Report eric_morris March 3, 2025 8:52 PM GMT
35 mins 50 sec in.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GE0kAP1qBj4
Report eric_morris March 3, 2025 8:53 PM GMT
Said really good horses do it they dont get beaten by Golden Ace. She was never going to win the race was laboured … interesting.
Report Angela Rebecchi March 3, 2025 8:55 PM GMT
Mullins is the master of getting these horses to peak at Cheltenham. Be interesting to hear his true thoughts on Lossiemouth and co.
Report eric_morris March 3, 2025 9:01 PM GMT
Think Segal has been reading my comments from earlier on this thread re Lossiemouth tbh Laugh
Report eric_morris March 3, 2025 9:25 PM GMT
Hendo saying he spoke to John Pullen on Thursday and it is ‘proper soft’ at the moment and cross country course still heavy. Hendo doesn’t think it will dry out that much and won’t get to good ground. Doesn’t think the watering cans will be needed and it will take plenty of getting.
Report eric_morris March 3, 2025 10:07 PM GMT
Good work on the Mares geoff m convincing laying of Lossiemouth at short odds while asking for 33/1 Jade De Grugy i guess its you Laugh

Meanwhile Lossiemouth is coming back to what he was for the Champion.

These double entries are a dream come trie for layers lol.
Report eric_morris March 3, 2025 10:08 PM GMT
dream come true for layers
Report firstimevisor March 3, 2025 10:48 PM GMT
Nothing will get close to Constitution Hill if he stays sound. You are all reading State Man wrong. He will beat the others. Ignore his run at Christmas.That was the only time he's ever had an off day. He has only 3/4 of a length to find with BDA from the Morgiana in November, which was his first run of the season, and he will improve a lot from then.There's nobody like Elliott to peak one for November and December.Lossiemouth will run in the Mares if she gets there at all and after that fall last time I'd expect she will bomb out too.
Report eric_morris March 3, 2025 11:05 PM GMT
firsttimevisor … I can’t quite decide from that post whether you are a half glass full or half glass empty person Laugh
Report GLASGOWCALLING March 3, 2025 11:08 PM GMT
I was just thinking the same, I just hope for the sake of all the posters on here that either BDA or Lossiemouth wins, cant see either myself.
Report 1st time poster March 3, 2025 11:15 PM GMT
no rain fcast big let down for Mullins most of his the softer the better,if its gd to sft or better ,look out for the market moves on the few of Mullins that prefer the faster going
Report Autocue March 4, 2025 9:37 AM GMT
“Hendo saying he spoke to John Pullen on Thursday and it is ‘proper soft’ at the moment and cross country course still heavy. Hendo doesn’t think it will dry out that much and won’t get to good ground. Doesn’t think the watering cans will be needed and it will take plenty of getting”

That sounds like a lot of guff to me. The course has only had 5mm of rain over the last seven days and the forecast is very much in favour of the ground drying out before next Tuesday. Add to that the fact that Cheltenham has a very efficient drainage system and it’s odds on they’ll be watering before racing.
Report geoff m March 4, 2025 9:45 AM GMT
Well Eric i have been laying BDA & Lossie both for mares expecting as they should both go champion and backing a fair few of the others @ what will be inflated odds if Lossie stays Champion. I thought she ran a sound race @ Kempton and didnt really lose any ground to C.Hill other than what she gave away @1st 2 hurdles. Really cant see why connections woludnt fancy another crack @ C.Hill @ a track she thrives at. If intentions are for Lossie to go Champion then i reckon you will find out tomoz(if not stated today) if /when Nicky & J.P supplement Joyeuse. So expect some more wild fluctuations. Lossie yesterday went as low as 2.5  for mares and as high as 8.0 late last night
Report geoff m March 4, 2025 9:48 AM GMT
Autocue that was last thursday which agree is guff as its irrelevant to today after 4 drying days. With a good few more drying days & warmer temperatures later in week. Dont think its a prayer of being soft or worse.
Report eric_morris March 4, 2025 10:19 AM GMT
yes geoff m the Mares market has been and will be all over the place once Joyeuse comes in and others defect to the Champion.

It makes you realise betting long range antepost with dominant stables that have a lot of choices is probably not a good idea.

of course if you play the markets the weeks before on these double entries with lack of information from those stables it  is an absolute dream as you can easily create illusions a horse runs in the Mares when it is going Champion and vice versa. You can probably make an awful lot of cash that way. Long range antepost is far far harder and may be a gonner with the current status quo having contenders for all of those races.

It all happens late on re targets for Mares or Champion Hurdle and Champion Chase or Ryanair or Gold Cup very late these days. Absolute minefield unless you are a layer.
Report luckyme March 4, 2025 10:25 AM GMT
Brighterdaysahead to take on Constitution Hill in Champion Hurdle showdown - but Nicky Henderson reiterates confidence in unbeaten star



The big story



By David Jennings



The Champion Hurdle showdown everyone wanted is on after Gordon Elliott revealed Brighterdaysahead will take on Constitution Hill in a pulsating clash at the Cheltenham Festival.



The superstar six-year-old will take on the boys in the opening-day highlight, rather than sticking to mares' company, following discussions over the weekend with Gigginstown's Michael and Eddie O'Leary.



Nicky Henderson, trainer of Constitution Hill, has welcomed the decision. He predicted it will lead to a good gallop, a scenario he feels will suit Michael Buckley's unbeaten hurdler perfectly.



Bookmakers reacted by shortening Brighterdaysahead into 7-4 and pushing Constitution Hill out to a general 4-6 to reclaim his title, while the Mares' Hurdle market has also been impacted, with Lossiemouth now odds-on to repeat last year's win.



What they said
Report geoff m March 4, 2025 10:28 AM GMT
Dont think it matters to much whether your a layer or backer. What does matter as always is the price you are backing or laying @.Im predominantly a layer but will back em back to reduce the liability/price of the lay.
Report geoff m March 4, 2025 2:29 PM GMT
Looks like we are in for a result. Lossie Champion Joyeuse supplemented.
Report eric_morris March 4, 2025 2:46 PM GMT
can’t see it posted anywhere that she runs?
Report geoff m March 4, 2025 3:00 PM GMT
Racing Post quoting Joyeuse to be supplemented. Now if i was J.P and owned hoses in partnership with Rich Ricci i would be having a word & cheking where Lossie goes before supplementing Joyeuse. Just reading between the lines.
Report eric_morris March 4, 2025 3:03 PM GMT
Maybe. I see connections announce Golden Ace most likely Mres bound.
Report eric_morris March 4, 2025 4:54 PM GMT
Willie Mullins Final Word just posted on Sporting Life website-

Lossiemouth

She's been very good, and it was unfortunate what happened that day [when she fell in the Irish Champion Hurdle] as it was shaping up to be a good race and then it was a bit of a damp squib as State Man probably just loitered a bit on his own out in front.
She started off slow at Christmas [when runner-up to Constitution Hill] but I think that's because in the past 18 months her races have been two-and-a-half-mile events and in the Hatton's Grace it was a crawl and she probably thought she was going to do the same again - she didn't know she was in a fast two-mile race and it took her a bit of time to get into gear. What I liked was that she didn't fade out of it and was doing her best work at the end.
She'll be a lot sharper for Cheltenham and the plan for the last two years has been for the Champion Hurdle and I'd imagine that's where she'll go. We still have her in the Mares' Hurdle but at this point in time it's about the Champion Hurdle for her. She likes Cheltenham and that's a huge advantage. It might be a blessing in disguise that [since Kempton] we now know we need to sharpen her up before those two-mile events. The speed is there and we just need to get it out of her.


State Man

He won the Irish Champion Hurdle but it was sort of a non-event because Lossiemouth fell and he had disappointed at Christmas when Brighterdaysahead was very good and just jumped out and went. She probably caught this fella on the wrong foot on the day. I think he'll be a lot better coming back to Cheltenham - he's a Champion Hurdle winner defending his title.
He probably hasn't had the best preparation this year but I'm happy he's in good shape and will give a good account of himself. In the Irish Champion Hurdle, he looked fine in the race and Paul was very happy sitting in behind Lossiemouth. He was lucky he didn't get caught up in that [Lossiemouth fall] when you look at the head on. He was lucky he didn't get an injury as so many times when a horse turns upside down like that they injure the horse coming behind them. He escaped all that and seems in good order. We're hoping he can reproduce his best form, and he will probably need it with the form Constitution Hill is in.

Energumene

I've been very happy with him and he's in great order. The forecast might be against him as it's supposed to be dry between now and Cheltenham. He'd probably want all the rain he can get. He's 11 years old so it's hard for two-milers to retain that energy over these short trips, however he's doing everything right at home. Come the day, if we happen to get a downpour it will be in his favour.

Gaelic Warrior

It's still open but I'd say he'll probably take his chance in the Champion Chase. As we've seen with Gaelic Warrior, a bad run at Leopardstown before Cheltenham doesn't mean he can't win as he won the Arkle last year after a dreadful run at the DRF. I was hoping he would improve enough to win at the DRF after his nice run at Christmas but Solness was going to be hard to beat on the day
Report jimnast March 4, 2025 5:14 PM GMT
Thanks eric
Report eric_morris March 4, 2025 5:20 PM GMT
No probs jimnast it is the final large piece of the Festival jigsaw good luck :)
Report jimnast March 4, 2025 5:32 PM GMT
Things can still change but you would have to think Lossiemouth will run in the champion hurdle now which I’m pleased about I have no financial interest in the race and most probably won’t,I have to admit after the O’Learys making there decision yesterday I expected the mares for her .

Good luck to you also eric
Report eric_morris March 4, 2025 5:36 PM GMT
Yes she is going for it by the looks of it i think she has been aimed at it i suppose they just wanted to know they could get her spot on in time before confirming it.
Report sageform March 4, 2025 7:18 PM GMT
Happier now with my Golden Ace bet. Plenty still to beat but if the top 2 in the market run in the CH, she is in with a very decent chance.
Report eric_morris March 4, 2025 7:34 PM GMT
i reckon Golden Ace is the bet in the Mares at the right price good luck
Report sageform March 5, 2025 9:16 AM GMT
I feel that Brighterdaysahead's reputation is mainly based on one run but if she is as good as many think then Golden Ace beat her last year so unless BDA has improved by more than a stone then GA must be a bet. The big unknown is Jade de Grugy who could yet prove to be by far the best mare in training but Golden Ace beat her last year.
Report Hibore March 5, 2025 9:34 AM GMT
Yes, BDA performance is based on one run. But it was total change in tactics going flat out from the start and travelling 33/34 mph. Timeform stats were blown away and the performance was second only to Cons Hill Supreme win this century. But only by a few pounds and with the 7lb allowance she would have theoretically beaten him.

If Denman was held up in 3 mile slowly run chases rather bombing from the front he might have been beaten by a Golden Ace.

I’m a huge CH fan but also think BDA could be something special. One thing is for sure if BDA wins she won’t get the plaudits as all the CH fans will claim the horse didn’t perform.
Report geoff m March 5, 2025 9:52 AM GMT
FWIW I reckon Skeltons Take No Chances has been vastly underated in the Mares. Last time out beat the Mullins Kargese over 2 miles who had previously run 2nd to the 2 stars Sir Gino & Majborugh in the top 2 4 yr old hurdles last year.Take No Chances is  no 2 miler having won over 3miles last year. Previous to her victory over strong pulling Kargese (who is surely better suited to a strong 2 miles COunty?) she ran @ Cheltenham over the mares trip running 3rd  beaten 2 lengths and giving 10lb to the unbeaten Elliots Woodoh. In 2nd place was a certain Joyeuse(who is going to be supplemented today to Mares) and she gave her 18lbs. Not having the run of a slowly run race Woodoh & Joyeuse far better placed. Joyeuse as we all know then won the old Schweppes last time out @ Newbury and absolutely dotted up by an easy 8 lengths. After supplementing imagine she will be 2nd or 3rd fav behind Jade De  GRugy @ around 5s assuming Lossie goes C.Hurdle Take No Chance @ 20s here well overpriced.
Report differentdrum March 5, 2025 11:24 AM GMT
Official figures have Brighterdaysahead improving about 20lbs. I wouldn't argue with that. Last time looked a big step up, but in the Morgiana she had to make her own running, and continually jumped left. You could easily mark that up by quite a few lengths. 

I backed Golden Ace at the start of the season, but for most of it all the talk has been about her not staying and dropping back in trip. Certainly that's the way the media were portraying it. I maintained her 'poor' form this season was still good enough to place, and that form might well have been down to the woeful form of the stable this season. Recent pulled muscle not great, and I hope the jock this time rides her as a stayer. Dropping her out means she has to pick up twice which so far she has failed to do. He is the biggest concern I have about not placing. More pressure on him this year as the degree of expectation is that much higher. He celebrated last time as if he had won the Champion Hurdle.
Report duffy March 5, 2025 5:20 PM GMT

Hibore 05 Mar 25 09:34 
Yes, BDA performance is based on one run. But it was total change in tactics going flat out from the start and travelling 33/34 mph. Timeform stats were blown away and the performance was second only to Cons Hill Supreme win this century. But only by a few pounds and with the 7lb allowance she would have theoretically beaten him.

If Denman was held up in 3 mile slowly run chases rather bombing from the front he might have been beaten by a Golden Ace.

I’m a huge CH fan but also think BDA could be something special. One thing is for sure if BDA wins she won’t get the plaudits as all the CH fans will claim the horse didn’t perform.


Superb post, summed up in a nutshell the importance of the pace in a race, doesn't matter about Winter Fog running past State Man et al, it was what BDA did in isolation, forget about the rest, if she ran a time trial on her own and ran like that it would have the same meaning.

Can she run like that again and if she can will the current version of CH be able to go with it and then be able to go past, other questions for me, is it possible that they both get busted up and Lossie picks up the pieces who I think will be ridden for a pace collapse, and a vital question for BDA backers, will KOK be able to take her far enough into the race?

A fascinating race and let's hope it plays out as we hope and the best horse wins...whoever that is!!
Report geoff m March 5, 2025 5:28 PM GMT
Agreed Duffy. lets hope the top 4 go to post and give us a great champion hurdle which we have been lacking for many years.
Report The Dragon March 5, 2025 5:39 PM GMT
all over bdh at the prices
Report jimnast March 5, 2025 5:39 PM GMT
Yes let’s hope so Geoff 20 years have passed since we had a great champion hurdle
Report firstimevisor March 5, 2025 5:56 PM GMT
The Champion Hurdle is not a time trial. Times don't really matter much at all in my opinion. Jezki clocked a faster Champion Hurdle time than Istabraq and Hurricane Fly did in their 5 combined wins. Looks Like Trouble clocked a quicker Gold Cup time than Kauto Star, Gallopin Des Champs, Best Mate and Denman. The proper top horses can all go a strong pace.
Report saxon farm March 5, 2025 6:00 PM GMT
^
Speed figures are completely different to times.
Report impossible123 March 5, 2025 8:10 PM GMT
There are only two genuine contenders eg Constitution Hill (CH) who relinquished his title due to ill-health, and BDA, the young pretender who pummeled State Man (SM) into submission twice this season; SM received the same treatment from CH last season.

The form of Lossiemouth over 2m is not comparable to either CH or BDA or SM.
Report sageform March 5, 2025 8:34 PM GMT
We could end up with 5 runners in the CH. Constitution Hill, BDA, State Man, Golden Ace and Burdett Road.
Report strontium March 5, 2025 8:50 PM GMT
Is no-one worried by the way BDA got beat in the Mares novice last year?
Report differentdrum March 5, 2025 8:51 PM GMT
Yes, but not those one's.

Constitution Hill, Brighterdaysahead, Lossiemouth, State Man and King Of Kingsfield. Golden Ace looks to be going Mares' and Burdett Road to the County, at least according to recent comment.
Report Hibore March 5, 2025 9:12 PM GMT
Stro, slowly run race which became a sprint. Golden Ace would probably beat her again if they run slow in CH about 25-30 secs from standard.
Report impossible123 March 5, 2025 9:31 PM GMT
I can see 4 runners at best, all being well. I think Golden Ace, Burdett Road and Winter Fog will decamp elsewhere; King Of Kingsfield will lead BDA and CH, with State Man hunting them.
Report strontium March 5, 2025 9:40 PM GMT
I think WF will run. Prize money-wise, also makes sense for BR to run here.
Report saxon farm March 5, 2025 11:56 PM GMT
SM received the same treatment from CH last season…..Er, when was this please?

WRONG, WRONG & WRONG AGAIN imbecile123.

You continually repeat tripe on these pages, so f**k off.
Report sageform March 6, 2025 7:57 AM GMT
I hope that Golden Ace goes for the mares but why is she declared at the 5 day for the CH? Are the owners leaning towards a possible jackpot and a very good chance of third prize.
Report geoff m March 6, 2025 8:03 AM GMT
I would imagine that its ground related Sage. They might have given champion a go on soft as there seemd to be a school of thought she is better @ 2miles than 2m4. Seemed to need every yard of 2 miles in Kingwell and was struggling 1/2 a mile out.
Report 1st time poster March 6, 2025 10:15 AM GMT
RATPACK wrote an article 4 weeks ago ,small field for CH worse bets at the time than ew 40,s ,golden ace
Report differentdrum March 6, 2025 6:33 PM GMT
That looks a really clever bet now. I hope his other bets are a bit better.

It seems like they have had a rethink with Burdett Road and he is going Champion Hurdle. It's the right decision as I don't think he would finish in the first ten in a County. If Lossiemouth doesn't go then fourth is up for grabs, and maybe better if State Man collapses again. Of course this time he should be ridden to pick up pieces rather than take on the pace.
Post Your Reply
<CTRL+Enter> to submit
Please login to post a reply.

Wonder

Instance ID: 13539
www.betfair.com