Brighterdaysahead 167 from 157 TF ( Honeysuckle 165 )

CH still 177

So does that mean getting 7lb puts her within 3lb of CH ?   If so WALOFS

If Cons Hill is 177 what is Burdett Road…169 ?

What is Lossiemouth rated please?

Dec 30, 2024 -- 3:53PM, stewarts rise wrote:

What is Lossiemouth rated please?

160

we gotter be a member for more info

Thanks EL11

Not sure what point is being made. Brighterdaysahead was bound to get a high rating. Honeysuckle was a relatively ordinary Champion Hurdle winner. No surprise at all that Brighterdaysahead is rated higher. Could it be that Constitution's Hill is too high on the basis State Man's rating was always too high? The cupboard has been bare for several years in this division. The hope is we get a proper contest this season with all three showing up.

Just listened to Eddie O'Leary he is not interested in going for The Champion Hurdle and he meant it.....This is the sort of **** we are dealing with.

What's happened is that we've seen a couple races that, unusually for a few years have been run at a decent pace and it's turned everything on its head that has seen previous lofty ratings been given off the back of grade 1's run at crawls being now looking decidedly iffy.

cons isnt a 177 from other day..but they aint gona drop it for winning.

cons is OR 175.

Lossiemouth drifting like barge in Mares. Patrick Mullins said earlier today they would be closer next time to CH ? Maybe decision confirmed

they jussed tark sh1te..like half the forum.

Dec 30, 2024 -- 4:28PM, duffy wrote:

What's happened is that we've seen a couple races that, unusually for a few years have been run at a decent pace and it's turned everything on its head that has seen previous lofty ratings been given off the back of grade 1's run at crawls being now looking decidedly iffy.

You may be right however you've also ot to factor in that is very rare you get good ground like at this time of year at Leopardstown.

where did you hear Eddie O'L say that Acey? I have the mare at 11/4 for the Mare's race so I am on tenterhooks already :-)

After the race he was interviewed and said Mares. Lossiemouth drifting in Mares race so looks like rematch between CH and her hopefully.
I’m on Brighterdays 10/1 -31/1 for Mares so even more tender hook than you

Not got a great record on this sort of thing Hibore. Hors la Loi (backed for Triumph) and Simonsig (backed for Supreme) being 2 of the more painful examples.   I suspect we will have to wait until Sunday before at 11am before we know.  Fingers crossed.

On The Nick Luck Podcast Today Donny....I wanted to cry after listening to the sh1te this **** was spoutin.

I shall worry about the future of the sport after it lines up for the Mares Acey! I am afraid selfishness rules on this issue for the moment. Sorry

A lot of talk about ratings and yet has anybody actually bothered to look at any changes? The mare was raised from 155 to 163 ( 8lb ) but State Man was dropped only 1lb when 10lb + would have been a more accurate reflection of his run imo. So if you take the race at face value the handicapper appears to think as most would that State Man ran way below what should have been expected, born out by the outsider finishing in front of him .

The only conclusion is that there was something amiss with the horse which the handicapper seems to opine in only 1lb reduction, possible the mare may prove worth the rise but anyone using the new ratings as a guide to a future meeting with State Man needs help. Ditto quoting CH in comparison or even with Lossie whatever CH's new rating is tomorrow if dropped which is possible despite the probability of significant improvement.

The ante post ticket holders should not count any chickens based on ratings or what race their bets will run in based purely on the rating as they stand even if Brighterdays connections believe them, she will still be well short of an A1 CH.imvho

I’m on Cons Hill in Champion. However, the 2 elephants in the room are Lossiemouth apparently running flat and 142 rated Burdett being so close. Much more likely BR ran to around 147, Lossiemouth was around 153 and CH was 163 or 164.

Pretty sure Henderson would much prefer BDH going Mares than take him on.

I doubt NH will have any mares over the mares lining up.

"Pretty sure Henderson would much prefer BDH going Mares than take him on"   PMSL   If I owned CH I wouldn't care what was running.  There's no Sea Pigeon or Night Nurse in the race and if there was he would beat them.

"they jussed tark sh1te..like half the forum".    Half ?  Very generous Rico.

Disappointed in Lydia Hislop in her latest broadcast " CH best since Istabraq "  She's old enough to know better. You can go back as far as you like.

howard 31 Dec 24 12:32 
"they jussed tark sh1te..like half the forum".    Half ?  Very generous Rico.


tung in cheek...93%.

Poor Burdett Road handicap now 150 from 142. Raised 8lb same amount as Brightdays (155 to 163) demolition at Leopardstown.
Lossiemouth 160 and Cons Hill 175 still.

Sounds about right

One question we might ask ourselves is just how a lot of these lofty ratings are reached in the first place, both State Man's and Lossiemouth's have been reached in races run at crawls, for anyone who thinks that State Man was below par ask yourself how he would have raced through the race, would he have kept tabs on the front two throughout would he and still been able to deploy that burst of speed or would he have been able to make up the ground from further back.

In the previous race BDA was able to withstand State Man's end of race effort through a race that wasn't run as brutal, here, knowing what State Man is they gave him no hiding place and just dragged his turn of foot out of him forcing him to go a pace from the get go or allow himself to get too far back, Townend didn't fancy the gallop so gambled that they went too quick. State Man will never be able to win a Grade 1 against top class rivals over 2 miles un at an end to end gallop, all his wins are dawdles against sub standard rivals.

Since State Man's win in the County where he beat First Steet and Colonel Mustard by a couple of lengths off level weights he has gone up 2 stone from a string of wins in weak grade 1's against horses that for the most part had no business being in grade 1 2 mile races and beat them in crawls where he was allowed to dawdle around and out pace them at the end. His lofty rating is more down to the default of token rises after a grade 1 win without really considering if it was justified...won the morgiana, oh well better bump him 4lbs...Irish Champion, there's another 3lbs, 2 years later he's rated 169 but really was never close to it.

A rating is supposed to reflect accurately a horses ability, imagine if State Man for the past 2 years existed in an era where he was forced to race in Grade 1's that were run at end to end gallops....169?

Agree duffy. Just looking at timeform greatest today I see Master Oats within one pound of Burrough Hill Lad. 

I think some of these mudlarks get high ratings because of beating good horses that don't stay on the ground

Howard , unless i'm wearing rose coloured spectacles that 1lb proximity from timeform beggars belief , i'm open to change my opinion if someone can convince with a few examples to help explain   

What is the consensus that Cons Hill ran to after a year off. Burdett Road hasn’t magically improved another 8lb in my opinion. Let’s say he ran to 145 which is 10lb more than his Greatwood win - that seems possible now running from the front. Lossiemouth then ran (maybe below form) to 145/7 (7lb allowance not included) as well. That is a stone under her official weight and she is much better than that.
Therefore, unless you thought Cons Hill won with 2 stone in hand he ran to 157and that is being kind and I’m a Cons H backer. Hopefully he’ll come on 3-5lbs so early 160’s. I’m of the opinion he was 170+ before.

Think he’s got enough in hand for Lossiemouth but Brighterdays would be a 50/50. I saw Ruby and Lydia thought Brighterdays would win.

I would suggest Burdett Road ran to higher mark of 135 in the Greatwood.

I agree, (I backed him) but 10lb for that run and Kempton seems plausible.

If BDA ran to the level the other day she would burn him off IMO, he was beginning to run on empty at the end of the Xmas hurdle, the perceived improvement that he may have is the imponderable but it might just as easy not be there, Henderson himself said that they had been hard on him which is something that wouldn't have been necessary if he was his usual 1/7 shot in the race against not much but here they needed to find something out about his wellbeing so had him ready to go.

My guess is that he was pretty straight for the race and Nico stating that he took a blow is probably more down to him hitting his level late on but as they're not used to experiencing that from him they put it down to needing the run or rustiness.

I might add … i am in the other half

howard 31 Dec 24 12:32 Joined: 09 Mar 03 | Topic/replies: 14,423 | Blogger: howard's blog
"they jussed tark sh1te..like half the forum".    Half ?  Very generous Rico

Duffy, I am sure most like me tolerate stupidity on here but your statement of CH beginning to run on empty in the Christmas Hurdle etc must rank among the daftest ever posted!!

Cag,

Well we tolerate you and your faux intellect on the forum so yes we tolerate a lot but you thinking that CH finished full of running with a mare who never went a yard  a mere 2 lengths behind must surely have beaten my post in the daft stakes.

Considering I never said anything close to that negates your response Duffy and I gave my opinions before the race so 1.01 my intellect beats your in a match!! hth

Yes, I could see you are a big Constitution Hill fan before the race, as I am, however I am generally prepared to let the actual race maybe alter my view going forward as the race is where the evidence lies and what I saw is a question mark against Con Hill.

Being the slave to official ratings such as you are you must be concerned that the perceived wisdom has him a stone inferior to his previous rating.

You have obviously missed my record of derogatory views of ratings Duffy and the reliance of many, you included it would seem on such.

Pointless trying an argument where you slip into inconsequential and inaccurate attacks to bolster your own view imvho?

Duffy what planet are you living on if you think State Man has just been exposed as a mediocre horse on the evidence of one run. He's a 10 time grade 1 winner and the reigning champion hurdler. He's been hammering proper grade 1 horses like Vauban, Honeysuckle and Impaire Et Passe for the last 2 years. He'd have won most champion hurdles run over the last 40 years. He is not a Faugheen, Hurricane Fly or a Constitution Hill but he's a seriously good horse. Do you really believe he can't keep pace with King of Kingsfield now or that the 10 y o handicapper Winter Fog is now a better horse than him, all on the evidence of one run.

FTV, he's won all those grade 1's but the point I'm making is that they were pretty much all run in the same way as dawdles, where he pootled around and won with a turn of foot at the end, this race was a completely novel experience to him.

How do you think he would have been raced through the race if he had been his normal self, up with the pace or would he have been some way off of it but been able to make it up, ratings are subjective and his has been built on races unlike this, the Vauban's Honeysuckle's and Impair Et Passe's of recent years could just as easily be used by me to highlight the paucity of quality at the top table of grade 1 2 milers in recent years.

Really don’t think he’d have won most Champion Hurdles in last 40 years. That isn’t right.
Henderson said to me Cons Hill would have beaten him 100 yards last year and don’t think he was joking.

He’s obviously a good horse but beating a Honeysuckle who was on her last legs and missed Champion to beat Love Envoi in Mares isn’t world class form.

Reason Winter Fog beat him other day if you actually watch it is that Stateman tried to close gap between 3 and 2 out on BDA and wasn’t able to and was then a spent force by last. Very likely wasn’t at his best either.

Hibore and duffy, give the game up if you think your "Informed" bollox stands up to any close scrutiny, have you not a pair of eyes between you?

TBF, the last 40 years of CH's exempt tbf!!

Cal, you know better than Henderson then ? Doubt it.

Cag, like I said to you earlier, point to the race he has previously won that closely mimics the type of race that he ran in the other day that proves that he is capable of winning a grade 1 run at an end to end gallop against a proper top grade 1 horse???

I doubt I know better than NH but 1.01 I know him better than you Hibore!!! So pointless trying your bull imvho!!

What did he tell you then ? Really interested now.

Duffy, can you not see that he so very obviously ran no sort of race whatsoever and you should just draw a line through it. It certainly wasn't tactics that found him out, he was a sick horse. Jesus I do wonder sometimes

Never told and never asked because like you bull, never happened!! HTH

FTV, how do you think he was on his biggest day, the day he won the CH last year, was he on song that day? what do you reckon?

FTV, I'll ask you the same question I asked Cag,point to the race he has previously won that closely mimics the type of race that he ran in the other day that proves that he is capable of winning a grade 1 run at an end to end gallop against a proper top grade 1 horse???

Duffy, again I have to question your sanity here. Do you think he somehow fluked a champion hurdle and 9 other grade 1s. Irish Point, champion hurdle runner up and a strong stayer and a classier horse than King Of Kingsfield also tried to take the sting out of him in Punchestown this year. Stateman lobbed along behind him and picked him off with ease

Knew you were talking crap. I was lucky to be there the day Cons Hill came back to the yard on 24th Aug so he was topic of much conversation.

Going out to celebrate New Year now.

Happy New Year everyone and that includes you Cag.
Let’s hope it’s a great year for everyone x

Of course you are believed Hibore so see you next Tuesday at 7B and compare notes with NH?

bda  rated 167 ........yet 4 runs ago was btn  near 2 lengths  by golden ace at the festival , that one goes today in the relkeel rated 144 ....brighterdays has improved 23 pound if ya believe the ratings and her last run.

That race was run at a crawl with a sprint up the straight. If they knew what they do now it would have been run at a strong pace.

stateman has clearly been by a long way the best 2 mile hurdler in the best yd in history at the peak of its powers so if people think he's been overated by 10lb,you,d have to ? the tastings of another 5000 horse in training ,during the last few yrs

" I saw Ruby and Lydia thought Brighterdays would win".  Is Ruby Irish and is Lydia one of Britain's top pro gamblers ?  Yes and no.

Mare that's lost to Golden Ace and beat Winter Fog ...against the GOAT  good luck with that.

Who said  Brighterdaysahead was running against Cons Hill ? I’m on her for Mares and that is where she will go I’d hope.
Been going on about her for 9 months at big prices on Cheltenham tab

"Who said  Brighterdaysahead was running against Cons Hill"?  That's what Ruby & Lydia were talking about.  Of course she may not run.

The Voice Of The People said Hilbore.

I think she will go Mares it will be a normal run race in the Champion Hurdle at Cheltenham no games like last time out it would be suicidal tactics in the Champion. If she runs in the CH they may try that toned down to test Lossiemouth going the pace but they arent going to get Constitution Hill off the bridle anyway and he would likely pick her off. Lossiemouth needs a stiffer track like Cheltenham and will show much better form than last time.

"Who said  Brighterdaysahead was running against Cons Hill"?  That's what Ruby & Lydia were talking about.  Of course she may not run.

You implied I said that on here or that is how I read it.

Surely they have to change the rules from next season for the Mares Hurdle 2026 to avoid this embarrassing crap in future, it's just completely detrimental to the "sport" at the moment. Year after year, it's pathetic.

"Think he’s got enough in hand for Lossiemouth but Brighterdays would be a 50/50. I saw Ruby and Lydia thought Brighterdays would win".    You and them were talking about the champion even if that is not your bet. You must have been because he can't run in the mares !

That is where Lydia expressed her view that CH is no better than Istabraq. I strongly disagree.

Totally agree, CH is best hurdler I’ve ever seen. Ran below exceptional rating on Boxing Day but should be better than Lossiemouth in CH.

BDA will run in Mares as why take on those two. It might be her last hurdle run before going chasing and O’Leary has already said they want to win a race at Cheltenham. I was just pointing out BDA might be best hurdler now but why chance it.

" Ran below exceptional rating on Boxing Day"   Horses not running to their best rating in one race  counts for NOTHING per se.  I see nothing that says he isn't as good as ever. If a horse is 10 it's something to bear in mind. He's 8.

They are not machines and he’s had a year off. He can improve definitely but long way to get back to 175. Fingers crossed he can we all need superstars in this game.

He doesn't have to get back to any number. Just beat what's around. And he may not have to be as good as he was to do that. But he may be better than ever now or  in the future  and never beat even his own top rating never mind Night Nurse.  Opposition and pace is needed. That's why I would like both mares to run. You don't.