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askjack
20 May 24 08:31
Joined:
Date Joined: 22 Nov 08
| Topic/replies: 1,172 | Blogger: askjack's blog
Ms. Flibbles' AI Picks and Opinions: Early Doors Experiment Picks
14:00 Redcar Mon 20 May - 6f Maiden Stakes
Overview
Based on the in-play (IP) Hi/Lo data, we identify potential trading opportunities for this race by analyzing horses with significant in-play price swings, indicating they have moved dramatically in price during races. This analysis highlights horses that might offer value due to recent performances and betting patterns.

Trading Opportunities Analysis
DOLCE VITTA

Current Form: Made a bright start behind a promising filly at Ascot.
Key Data:
1 May: Second, IP Lo: 1.8 (significant in-running price drop).
Conclusion: A strong performer with significant in-running support. Good for back-to-lay strategies.
BLACK TIDE

Current Form: Newcomer, yet to race.
Key Data:
Historical data not available due to being a newcomer.
Conclusion: Potential value in debut performance.
REX CARVER

Current Form: Newcomer, yet to race.
Key Data:
Historical data not available due to being a newcomer.
Conclusion: Another newcomer with potential value.
SEA OF DIAMONDS

Current Form: Expected to perform well based on breeding and trainer reputation.
Key Data:
Not available due to being a newcomer.
Conclusion: A speculative candidate with high expectations.
WE'VE GOT THIS

Current Form: Newcomer, highly regarded.
Key Data:
Not available due to being a newcomer.
Conclusion: Shows potential, worth watching for debut performance.
WIPEOUT

Current Form: Debut race, potential based on training.
Key Data:
Historical data not available.
Conclusion: Another speculative candidate.
THE CRAFTY MOLE

Current Form: Winner at Wetherby, relishing longer trips.
Key Data:
29 Apr: First, IP Lo: 2.0 (indicating strong in-running support).
Conclusion: Strong back-to-lay candidate with proven form.
BELIEVITANDUCAN

Current Form: Improved performance in last race.
Key Data:
20 Apr: Third, IP Lo: 3.5.
Conclusion: Consistent in-running price drops make it a good trading candidate.
RUBIO DE ORO

Current Form: Poor performance last time but potential to improve on turf.
Key Data:
10 Apr: Last, IP Lo: 15 (early backing despite poor finish).
Conclusion: Speculative bet with potential for improvement.
Summary
Best Back-to-Lay Candidates:

DOLCE VITTA
THE CRAFTY MOLE
BELIEVITANDUCAN
RUBIO DE ORO
Three Runners Most Likely to Win:

DOLCE VITTA
BLACK TIDE
SEA OF DIAMONDS
Speculative Outsider Bet:

RUBIO DE ORO

These selections are based on in-running price movements and recent performance data, providing potential value for trading strategies and betting.

For more detailed race analysis, you can visit At The Races and Racing TV.
Pause Switch to Standard View Ms Flibble AI Experiment - 14:00...
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Report askjack May 20, 2024 8:37 AM BST
May 19, 2024 -- 6:22PM, 11kv wrote:

Can't make head nor tails of this fred but i hope your winning....


11kv, I can understand your confusion. Basically, I had a mini meltdown when the new version of AI ChatGPT 4.o which I call Ms Flibbles, started producing garbage/rubbish information.

I was exhausted and frustrated with Ms Flibble's understanding of the information I required.

This morning I started retraining the AI Ms Flibble to produce concise race information in a template.

I will use the new layout in Monday's Early Doors Experiment.
Report askjack May 20, 2024 8:57 AM BST
Notebook

Sleep Trade                                               
     
Ms Flibble Experiment               
Early Doors                       


     
Dutch
                           

Win and Trade


My Bets (NO Flibble)


Monday Experiment Bankroll:       £ 8.17

Experiment Profit Bank            £ 8.00

///////////////////////////////////////////

Monthly Software Liabilities
ChatGPT 4.o (Ms Flibbles)        -£18.98
Fairbot                          -£10.00

Total                            -£28.98

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Report askjack May 20, 2024 9:13 AM BST
Snips from yesterday's thread:

The rule of the Early Doors experiment restricts the stake to £8 maximum for the first race of the day.

If the bet fails and ends up in the titbag, I'll still have £2 to play with.

Essentially... I've gone 3/4 of a full bollixs! (:-o}

An overload of information can be as bad as no information IMO.

\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\

askjack • May 19, 2024 3:55 PM BST
F-me All losses from the early Doors experiment. BOOM!
Report•Quote•Block Useraskjack • May 19, 2024 5:01 PM BST
Notebook

Sleep Trade                                               
     
Ms Flibble Experiment               
Early Doors                        -£6
2xDutch
Honour Your Dreams 2TBP
Phoenix Beach win

Lotus Rose         win
Lets go Hugo

Dutch
Ey Up Its The Boss                 £5.55
Mahboob                           -£3.00


Win and Trade


My Bets (NO Flibble)


Sunday Experiment Bankroll:       £ 4.17

Experiment Profit Bank            £12.00

Monthly Software Liabilities
ChatGPT 4.o (Ms Flibbles)        -£18.98
Fairbot                          -£10.00

Total                            -£28.98

Mahboob dives into the titbag.
15:45 CURE LEUKAEMIA NOVICE STAKES (4)
1st    William Buicksilk    1. ANCIENT TRUTH (IRE)  5/2 f
2nd    Sean Leveysilk    8. PRINCIPALITY (IRE)  13/2
3rd    Daniel Tudhopesilk    3. BOLD IMPACT (IRE)  4/1

//////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

/////////////////////////////////////////
Report askjack May 20, 2024 9:26 AM BST
Searched 4 sites

Ms. Flibbles' AI Picks and Opinions: Early Doors Experiment Picks
14:13 Newton Abbot Mon 20 May - 2m1f Novice Hurdle
Overview
Based on the in-play (IP) Hi/Lo data, we identify potential trading opportunities for this race by analyzing horses with significant in-play price swings, indicating they have moved dramatically in price during races. This analysis highlights horses that might offer value due to recent performances and betting patterns.

Trading Opportunities Analysis
PIRATES' TALE

Current Form: Strong performer with a win and several placements (28412-).
Key Data:
Last season: Consistent in-running price drops, often backed heavily.
Conclusion: Good for back-to-lay strategies given its consistent form and in-running support.
FORTIFIED FORTUNE

Current Form: Two second-place finishes (2/P2-).
Key Data:
Consistent price drops indicating strong backing in races.
Conclusion: A solid candidate for back-to-lay given its in-running support and consistent performance.
GET THE VALUE

Current Form: Struggled recently (32/499-6).
Key Data:
Inconsistent in-running price support.
Conclusion: More speculative but could offer value if market support reappears.
GIDDY UP

Current Form: Poor recent form (05-).
Key Data:
Minimal in-running support.
Conclusion: High-risk candidate with potential for improvement but limited trading opportunities.
HENRY PICK

Current Form: No significant recent form (87-).
Key Data:
Lacks in-running support.
Conclusion: Another high-risk option, likely less favorable for back-to-lay strategies.
IMPECUNIOUS

Current Form: Newcomer with strong market expectations.
Key Data:
Lacking historical in-running data.
Conclusion: Speculative but worth watching on debut.
Summary
Best Back-to-Lay Candidates:

PIRATES' TALE
FORTIFIED FORTUNE
GET THE VALUE
IMPECUNIOUS
Three Runners Most Likely to Win:

PIRATES' TALE
FORTIFIED FORTUNE
IMPECUNIOUS
Speculative Outsider Bet:

GET THE VALUE
These selections are based on in-running price movements and recent performance data, providing potential value for trading strategies and betting. For more details, you can refer to sources like The Sun Racing​ (The Sun)​.
Report askjack May 20, 2024 10:56 AM BST
The first two weeks of the experiment can be regarded as a "Boot Camp" or "Basic Training" for both me and Ms Flibble (ChatGPT 3.1 and 4.o).

The next two weeks of training and experimentation will be much more focused and all chatter and off-hand remarks will be eliminated.

Every day, I will publish Ms Flibble's analysis of the first race from every track in the GB racing calendar.

The selections and type of bet made by me will be published before the race starts (15 minutes approx.) as proof of the bet a digital copy will be recorded.

After the race is concluded my reaction to the outcome will be given and the P/L notebook updated.

Monday Experiment Bankroll:       £ 8.17

Experiment Profit Bank            £ 8.00

My selection of crude words to describe where bets end up will continue and most probably be added to.

titsup = Dead in the water
titbag = A place where losing bet slips go
kitbag = winning bet slips repository
Report askjack May 20, 2024 1:07 PM BST
I'm starting my selection process to work on the best type of bet to achieve value for money for the Flibbs picks for 14:00 Redcar Mon 20 May - 6f Maiden Stakes.

First Impressions

She has picked many non-runners:
THE CRAFTY MOLE
BELIEVITANDUCAN
RUBIO DE ORO

These NRs are listed at 5:30 Redcar as declared runners.

I need to look into this titup later on (note: add to vocab list)

I'm not going to trade on 14:00 race.

Still looking for a value bet.
Report formoftheace May 20, 2024 1:14 PM BST
GL.
Report askjack May 20, 2024 1:22 PM BST
Back (Bet For)
WIN
2.8
£2.00
£3.60
Ref: 349220515056
Matched: 13:11 20-May-24

Got on now because it might shorten before the off.

Back (Bet For)
3TBP
3.75
£0.36
£0.99
Ref: 349220493732
Matched: 13:11 20-May-24
Black Tide
3.75
£0.64
£1.76
Ref: 349220493732
Matched: 13:11 20-May-24

Got on now because I'm an idiot and forgot to add 10 clicks in the case of a better price near the off.

Sea of Diamonds also is an NR

I feel let down by Ms Flibble!
Report askjack May 20, 2024 1:30 PM BST
Ms Flibble says:

Note
It appears that the initial picks included non-runners. The actual race for 14:00 Redcar on 20 May includes different horses. If you are seeking value bets or specific trading strategies, it is best to avoid this race for now and look at other opportunities.

To ensure the accuracy of future picks, please refer directly to reliable sources like Timeform for the latest racecards and updates.

I remarked back:

Very titting helpful? (add to vocab list)
Report askjack May 20, 2024 1:37 PM BST
Both bets have a total liability of £3 a partial full bollixs. (add to vocab list)

Profit for win £3.31, 3TBP £2.53 Both come up £5.84
Report askjack May 20, 2024 1:52 PM BST
Redcar 14:30 - w/o Sea Of Diamonds

It seems scanned the Redcar full card instead of just the 14:00 race.

I will try to get Flibbs more accurate in which race she's analysing.
Report askjack May 20, 2024 2:16 PM BST
In the kitbag Dolce a wee beauty!
Tide is off to the titbag :(
Notebook

Sleep Trade                                               
     
Ms Flibble Experiment               
Early Doors                     

Dolce Vitta win                    £ 3.31
Black Tide                        -£ 1.00                     
     
Dutch
                           

Win and Trade


My Bets (NO Flibble)


Monday Experiment Bankroll:       £ 10.48

Experiment Profit Bank            £ 8.00

///////////////////////////////////////////

Monthly Software Liabilities
ChatGPT 4.o (Ms Flibbles)        -£18.98
Fairbot                          -£10.00

Total                            -£28.98

\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\
Report askjack May 20, 2024 2:27 PM BST
14:13 Newton Abbot Mon 20 May - 2m1f Novice Hurdle

I did not get a bet on it in time.

Flibbs picks:

Three Runners Most Likely to Win:

PIRATES' TALE
FORTIFIED FORTUNE
IMPECUNIOUS

She might be a bit absentminded but she's got her titpicking hat on today. (add to vocab list)
Report askjack May 20, 2024 2:48 PM BST
All three were placed!

Now that doesn't come along very often.

In future, I'll look at the Exchange, Tote or the Sportsbook when selecting bet options.
Report askjack May 20, 2024 2:50 PM BST
One tit doesn't make a kitbag.
Report askjack May 20, 2024 4:50 PM BST
The following 3 posts will have Ms. Flibble's picks for the opening 3 races on tonight's card. Winsor 17:06, Roscommon 17.20 and Carlisle 18:30.

I've decided the Early Doors Experiment will not bet tonight. The risk is too great for the Experiment bank.

All profits from today will be deposited in the Experiment bank.

TOMORROW'S Bankroll will be £8.48 and the E-bank £10

However, I just might wade in with a few modest bets of my own (-:}

Remember, one tit doesn't make a kitbag!
Report askjack May 20, 2024 4:57 PM BST
Ms. Flibbles' AI Picks and Opinions: Early Doors Experiment Picks
17:06 Windsor Mon 20 May - 1m3f Handicap
Overview
Based on the in-play (IP) Hi/Lo data, we identify potential trading opportunities for this race by analyzing horses with significant in-play price swings, indicating they have moved dramatically in price during races. This analysis highlights horses that might offer value due to recent performances and betting patterns.

Trading Opportunities Analysis
ALACRITY

Current Form: Strong contender, often placed well.
Key Data:
Consistent in-running support.
Conclusion: Good for back-to-lay strategies given consistent performance.
CAPRELO

Current Form: Solid performances with several placements.
Key Data:
Significant in-running price drops.
Conclusion: Strong candidate for back-to-lay due to consistent backing during races.
LUCENTIO

Current Form: Mixed results but has shown potential.
Key Data:
Some significant in-running support.
Conclusion: Potential value for back-to-lay if support continues.
RAKKI

Current Form: Average recent form but has past good runs.
Key Data:
Variable in-running support.
Conclusion: Speculative but could offer value if in-running support reappears.
MALINKA

Current Form: Recent poor form but has shown capability.
Key Data:
Occasional in-running price drops.
Conclusion: High-risk candidate with potential for improvement.
I LOVE PARIS

Current Form: Struggled recently but has past performances to build on.
Key Data:
Minimal in-running support.
Conclusion: High-risk option, less favourable for back-to-lay strategies.
FREDS MATE

Current Form: No significant recent form.
Key Data:
Lacks in-running support.
Conclusion: High-risk candidate, unlikely to be favourable for trading.
Summary
Best Back-to-Lay Candidates:

ALACRITY
CAPRELO
LUCENTIO
RAKKI
Three Runners Most Likely to Win:

ALACRITY
CAPRELO
LUCENTIO
Speculative Outsider Bet:

RAKKI
These selections are based on in-running price movements and recent performance data, providing potential value for trading strategies and betting. For more detailed race analysis, you can refer to sources like Betfair's Windsor Racecard​ (Betfair)​​ (Betfair)​​ (Betfair)​.
Report askjack May 20, 2024 4:58 PM BST
Ms. Flibbles' AI Picks and Opinions: Early Doors Experiment Picks
17:20 Roscommon Mon 20 May - 7f Maiden
Overview
Based on the in-play (IP) Hi/Lo data, we identify potential trading opportunities for this race by analyzing horses with significant in-play price swings. This analysis highlights horses that might offer value due to recent performances and betting patterns.

Trading Opportunities Analysis
ROYALCORRESPONDENT

Current Form: Showing promise with a string of good performances.
Key Data:
IP Lo: 3.75.
Recent form indicates strong market support.
Conclusion: Good for back-to-lay strategies given consistent performance and strong backing.
DYNAMITE DEFENSE

Current Form: Fairly consistent, with a notable recent performance.
Key Data:
IP Lo: 7.6.
Shows potential for in-running price drops.
Conclusion: Strong candidate for back-to-lay due to solid past performances and consistent backing.
ZENATO

Current Form: Recent form has been promising.
Key Data:
IP Lo: 6.8.
Notable in-running support.
Conclusion: Potential value for back-to-lay if support continues.
ALTO SAX

Current Form: Mixed results but has shown potential.
Key Data:
IP Lo: 9.2.
Shows in-running support when performing well.
Conclusion: Speculative but could offer value if in-running support reappears.
SHES SMART

Current Form: Recent performances have been less impressive.
Key Data:
IP Lo: 13.5.
Minimal in-running support.
Conclusion: High-risk candidate, suitable for speculative bets.
Summary
Best Back-to-Lay Candidates:

ROYALCORRESPONDENT
DYNAMITE DEFENSE
ZENATO
ALTO SAX
Three Runners Most Likely to Win:

ROYALCORRESPONDENT
DYNAMITE DEFENSE
ZENATO
Speculative Outsider Bet:

SHES SMART
These selections are based on in-running price movements and recent performance data, providing potential value for trading strategies and betting. For more detailed race analysis, you can refer to sources like The Sun's Roscommon Racecard and Sky Sports​ (The Sun)​​ (Sky Sports)​​ (Sky Sports)​.
Report askjack May 20, 2024 4:59 PM BST
Ms. Flibbles' AI Picks and Opinions: Early Doors Experiment Picks
18:30 Carlisle Mon 20 May - 5f Novice Stakes
Overview
Based on the in-play (IP) Hi/Lo data, we identify potential trading opportunities for this race by analyzing horses with significant in-play price swings. This analysis highlights horses that might offer value due to recent performances and betting patterns.

Trading Opportunities Analysis
RIVER SEINE

Current Form: Strong favorite with recent wins and placements.
Key Data:
Consistent in-running support.
IP Lo: 1.95.
Conclusion: Good for back-to-lay strategies given consistent performance and strong market support.
ENGLEMERE

Current Form: Strong recent form with notable placements.
Key Data:
IP Lo: 3.55.
Recent form suggests potential for continued strong performance.
Conclusion: Strong candidate for back-to-lay due to consistent backing during races and solid past performances.
WHERES CLARE

Current Form: Mixed results but has shown potential.
Key Data:
IP Lo: 9.4.
Shows in-running support when performing well.
Conclusion: Potential value for back-to-lay if support continues, especially given recent form indicators.
LADY LIGHTNING

Current Form: Recent form is average but has past good runs.
Key Data:
IP Lo: 10.
Variable in-running support, indicating potential volatility.
Conclusion: Speculative but could offer value if in-running support reappears, particularly if returning to best form.
TOOTA

Current Form: Limited recent form, longer odds.
Key Data:
IP Lo: 46.
Minimal in-running support.
Conclusion: High-risk candidate, unlikely to be favorable for trading, but could be considered for speculative bets.
Summary
Best Back-to-Lay Candidates:

RIVER SEINE
ENGLEMERE
WHERES CLARE
LADY LIGHTNING
Three Runners Most Likely to Win:

RIVER SEINE
ENGLEMERE
WHERES CLARE
Speculative Outsider Bet:

TOOTA
These selections are based on in-running price movements and recent performance data, providing potential value for trading strategies and betting. For more detailed race analysis, you can refer to sources like The Sun's Carlisle Racecard and At The Races​ (The Sun)​​ (At The Races)​.
Report askjack May 20, 2024 5:11 PM BST
Back (Bet For)
Odds
Stake
Profit
Caprelo
6
£0.76
£3.80
Ref: 349247345456
Matched: 17:02 20-May-24
Caprelo
6
£0.91
£4.55
Ref: 349247345456
Matched: 17:02 20-May-24
Lucentio
7.6
£0.09
£0.59
Ref: 349247345457
Matched: 17:02 20-May-24
Lucentio
7.6
£1.23
£8.12
Ref: 349247345457
Matched: 17:02 20-May-24

LUCENTIO...>>>BOOM
Report kingsnake5 May 20, 2024 5:22 PM BST
Maybe don't pick a Maiden race
Report askjack May 20, 2024 5:24 PM BST
Back (Bet For)
Odds
Stake
Profit
Royalcorrespondent
4
£0.50
£1.50
Ref: 349250235136
Matched: 17:21 20-May-24
Royalcorrespondent
4
£0.98
£2.94
Ref: 349250235136
Matched: 17:21 20-May-24
Zenato
6.4
£0.37
£2.00
Ref: 349250239301
Matched: 17:21 20-May-24
Zenato
6.8
£0.59
£3.42
Ref: 349250239301
Matched: 17:21 20-May-24
Dynamite Defense
10.5
£0.56
£5.32
Ref: 349250239302
Matched: 17:21 20-May-24

IN THE TITBAG
Report askjack May 20, 2024 5:33 PM BST
The experiment is going well.

I've done 2 reverse Forecasts on Sportsbook:

River Seine / Englemere

River Seine / Wheres Clare

Risky, but I'm a gambler at heart!

I hope River Seine wins otherwise I'll look the right Titheed. LOL
Report askjack May 20, 2024 6:37 PM BST
Single @2 Lines
River Seine / Englemere
Stake
£2.00
Returns
TBD


Show selections & more
Single @2 Lines
River Seine / Wheres Clare
Stake
£2.00
Returns

FFS... A gambler with a BROKEN tithead!

Where's Clair - Englemere
Report askjack May 20, 2024 6:56 PM BST
Experiment Summary
Windsor 17:06               £6.48
Roscommon 17.20            -£3.00
Carlisle 18:30             -£4.00

P/L                        -£0.52


I think there's a glimmer of potential.

However, One kitbag and two titbags don't look good.

OK, I'll post tomorrow's Early Doors Experiment at least 2hrs before the first race of the starts.
Report askjack May 20, 2024 8:38 PM BST

May 20, 2024 -- 5:22PM, kingsnake5 wrote:


Maybe don't pick a Maiden race


Thank you, that IS very good advice.

The Early Doors Experiment is set up to back a maximum of £8 (full bollixs) in the first race of the day regardless of type of race, pups riding experienced horses or old sea dogs riding young horses etc.

I just automatically pick the first races on the evening card.

Your advice is very timely the type of race should always be included in the decision to bet on a race and the type of bet to make.

Thanks and cheers.

{_}] have a free virtual beer on me :}

Report askjack May 20, 2024 8:51 PM BST
I will include your advice and my reply tomorrow in Ms Flibble's AI thread post.

If you object, post a message saying "NOPE" after the first race has concluded.

If it's OK by you do nothing and I'll post your timely advice sometime in the afternoon.
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