Your advice? You have exhibited in this thead the most laughable ignorance about probability. You sound like someone who thinks winning the lottery is even money, you eother win or you don't.

It's incredible (imo) that after 25 odd years of the forum, this kind of discussion still takes place.

Horse racing is very difficult and as such, value is admittedly very subjective - so the only way you will know if you are getting it is via your account balance over a period of time.

However if you take any scenario that is less subjective like a coin toss, a dice roll, a roulette spin, etc, etc, etc.

You simply cannot argue that there is not a 100% mathematically "correct" price and and there are also two variations of an "incorrect" price (on that is higher than the "correct" price & one that is lower. That's a fact!

As I said, horse racing is very difficult and therefore very subjective, so there isn't a solid mathematical formula for ascertaining the "mathematically correct" price -  but the same still applies - there are still only three scenarios (in the long-term) and even three punters backing the exact same selections can still fall into three different categories:

1) Normally getting the mathematically "correct" price in the long term = break even or lose to commission.
2) Normally getting the "incorrect" price that is less than the "correct" price in the long term = loser.
3) Normally getting the "incorrect price that is more than the "correct" price in the long term = winner.

These are facts! When the subject matter is very objective (a coin toss, roulette spin, dice roll, etc) you cannot dispute that these are facts. Just because the subject matter is more subjective (horse racing) doesn't suddenly mean that you can dispute them!

Betfair SP isn't an all-knowing, all-seeing genius for every event that takes place - but if you persistently beat it over a long period of time - you will win - no matter what your selections!

If you bet at 10% under over a long period of time - you will lose - no matter what your selections!

Getting back on topic (tipsters). The way "tipsters" have evolved over the last 20 years also confirms that price is the only thing that matters!

Hugh Taylor, price-wise and a couple of others are among the more reputable and I enjoy reading (some of) their thoughts with regard to how they analyse a race and how they arrive at a selection.

But realistically, they are no different to the shysters of old. The shysters of old would feed you false information regarding their past record i.e. they would after-time winners. The modern day "tipster" is slightly more sophisticated, they don't after-time winners, they after-time (fictional) prices!

Showing a level stake profit at "advised" prices is a completely different matter to showing a level stake profit at "available" prices.

So as dave1357 has pointed out, price is the only thing that matters - because the guy always getting the "advised" prices to his desired stake (if there even is such a guy) is likely a winner - the guy taking "available" prices is likely a loser.

Things aren't what they used to be in the glory years but I'm STILL doing ok thanks DC.

This price debate took off around the start of the exchange with the so called arbers betting early and laying back on here. Many people thought they had discovered the road to riches but all they did was spoil matters for others. I never understood why people who played seriously and studied form could ever give money to these shysters but just me call me old fashioned.

Dr Crippen - you have an account that is in (life-time) deficit yes? We both know it.

Now go back and add 10% onto all the prices you ever took. Evens becomes 11/10, 5/1 becomes 11/2, 20/1 becomes 22/1, 50/1 becomes 55/1 etc. Hey presto, you have recovered all your losses and maybe even have a winning account!

Hugh is at least a good read - but Gaze was top of the league one month on some shyster site and even got some subscribers (allegedly). That tells you all you need to know about most "tipsters".

Great couple of posts TM but be careful banging your head against that brick wall as it'll eventually crack.

Always believed that the term value is just simply a posh word for personal opinion ( unless mathematically proven ) and will always be subjective enough to mean different things to different people in all walks of life.

If we all identified where this thing called value existed then there'd be no exchange as one punters perception of a value back is another persons lay.



Good luck today all   

Punters will always find some excuse for losing. Lack of discipline, chasing loses, and now the daddy of them all - cramped prices.

Yet it all comes down to one thing - the loser doesn't know enough to begin with.

Hugh Tayler can do it, so why can't we? The answer is above.

Just to add - I can "beat the price" i.e. it is actually possible to do, it can be done on every selection in every race, everyday. I can't do it that well (sadly), but it is possible and winners do it often enough to make it pay. You can only eliminate your losing selections after the race!

It goes without saying that everybody seeks to obtain the best price about their selection. No one is arguing with that.
That is different to letting the price choose the horse for you. 
How many times have we heard - ''I fancy this one, but it's too short?'' Then that horse wins.

A very successful punter I used to hang out with wouldn't bet if his selection wasn't backed. And he always bet the market leader. So he never got what they call value.
He went in the opposite direction ''the price is too big, there's not enough confidence behind it''

We all have our different ways of doing things. But for me finding the winner comes above all else.

You can only eliminate your losing selections after the race!

So how can you change the price if it starts to drift after you’ve taken it?

There's plenty you can do to cut down losers. You can stop backing half-chances for a start if you're doing that. They always cost you in the long run.

You can set minimum requirements for your selections.

''There's many a slip 'twixt the cup and the lip.''

Yes I can see that, it's the same principle as getting 6/4 on the toss of a coin.

Except that horse racing results aren't entirely random.

And there are many false favourites. Which is why punters study form.

"Some old boy on you tube has been calling a few tipsters out, one of them has disappeared again Sandrovitch".

Remember him from years ago at least 20 years or so, large adverts in the sporting press with a picture of him looking into a crystal ball 'The Vision of Sandrovitch !' And in his own words "A Mastermind of Betting" Remember he was tipping football and cricket bets.

Oneten when did you last have a reality check that highlights idiots betting at SP whatever genre'?

There is no difference between winning or losing st SPs other than the rate at which punters win more often than lose which is why layers / bookies win more often than they lose!!! HTH

Dr Crippen
Hugh Taylor has proven his tipping historically is a guaranteed long term profit provider, he is and has been transparent with his column for years, people subscribe because of that fact, and it’s all been visible to be proofed by anyone.
but that doesn’t mean individually that all his horses will start shorter it means that when the bookies honour his bets a very high % of them get reduced immediately has nothing to do with the SP or exchanges, the punters online who follow him in are linked and have their accounts SF accordingly and they will definitely not be on BOG
The post I did the other day gives the theoretical long-term value of how he can win, and his followers can lose which is the reason why they are allowed bets at the reduced odd, so reality is bookies would welcome them even though they are linked to HT.
I am certain there are people on the exchanges who profit from laying his selections at these reduced prices and think he’s rubbish.
Most subscribers and followers follow him blindly because of his reputation and he guarantees consistent returns and probably never even notice whether they are in long term profit or not just that its better than they do themselves.

I wasn't knocking the tips that appear in Hugh Taylor's column.
I simply commented on the fact that all the tips from that source given in the last few days drifted in the market and got beat.

A word of warning to anyone who are impressed by claims of profit.
Beware of any method or tipster who doesn't give their results at SP.

If they don’t give the profit or loss at SP, then why not?

SP is irrelevant, BFSP is Irrelevant, Early price is irrelevant, the Tote return is irrelevant.

The only price that matters is the one that you took! Someone with a big following that gives tips based on price is always going to do badly at any measure apart from "advised" price.

So we've gone full-circle. Some of the "best tipsters in the game" are only ahead of the game at fictional (unobtainable) prices.

Because....... you guessed it......... price is the only thing that matters!!