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sparrow
20 Feb 24 18:32
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Date Joined: 20 Jul 02
| Topic/replies: 57,982 | Blogger: sparrow's blog
I was wondering if any forumite had compiled statistics on the No 1 draw on all the AW course in England this year? I expect the success rate is extremely poor.
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Report mrcombustible • February 20, 2024 8:41 PM GMT
RSB AW Stat[nl][/nl]69 wins, 571 runs, 12.1% strike rate, 1.07 A/E, -14.2% loss, 64.5 Exp, 0.3 Archie

from 1/1/24  all aw tracks stall 1
Report sparrow • February 20, 2024 9:19 PM GMT
Thank you very much, mr combustible.  Not as bad as I expected though.
Report Regbutler • February 20, 2024 9:37 PM GMT
Great work Mr.C
Excuse my ignorance... What is 0.3 Archie?

Thanks
Report Latalomne • February 21, 2024 9:22 AM GMT
Archie is a measure of the likelihood of a set of results being down to chance, as opposed to being statistically significant.  The higher the value, the more statistically significant the set of results.  An archie value of 0.3 equates to them being 58% down to chance, and therefore not statistically significant.
Report CagliariG • February 21, 2024 11:00 AM GMT
There would be no relevance in any respect regardless given the different track configurations and random number of runners etc, so pretty pointless!!
Report howard • February 21, 2024 11:56 AM GMT
And what fecking use is mixing 5/6f races with middle distance races ? Never mind h'caps/non-h'caps ?
Report sparrow • February 21, 2024 12:00 PM GMT
It may have no have interest for some people but does for me and that is why I asked.
Report Regbutler • February 21, 2024 12:00 PM GMT
Cheers Latalomne
Nothing to do with Archie Andrews then
Report sparrow • February 21, 2024 12:03 PM GMT
Very similar to many posts as being relevant to some and not to others.
Report stu • February 21, 2024 12:23 PM GMT
I agree it is a relevant issue for AW tracks - though not sure why you thought it might be a particular issue for this current year Sparrow, was there some logic to that?
Report CagliariG • February 21, 2024 12:29 PM GMT
Stu there is no relevance unless it is broken down to individual tracks, distances and race types, even then what worth is it when even the weather would have to be a factor?
Report stu • February 21, 2024 12:31 PM GMT
I'd agree it's more useful if broken down into categories, though might still be something about all the 'inside' runners to consider.
Report sparrow • February 21, 2024 12:35 PM GMT
I did require all AW races stu but perhaps might have asked for the last twelve months or so.
Report mrcombustible • February 21, 2024 12:36 PM GMT
On Flatstats you can break it down by track, race type, distance, field size and many other factors
Report sparrow • February 21, 2024 12:37 PM GMT
Many thanks for your input, combustible.
Report stu • February 21, 2024 12:38 PM GMT
Did you think something had changed sparrow more recent? Track nature or riding styles? Those can of course affect inner runners to some extent.
Report sparrow • February 21, 2024 12:45 PM GMT
I wasn't sure about whether anything had changed stu but had noticed for some time how so few horses from that draw were successful. There are of course reasons for that which any regular racegoer would know by know.
Report werbie • February 21, 2024 1:44 PM GMT
Like a lot of draw Positives/Negatives you have to read between the lines a fair bit. The Fibresand at Southwell was probably the best example of that. If you understood it then you would really struggle not to make a decent chunk. Low draw generally the kiss of death but not always. When they last relayed the Fibresand things changed somewhat and since the arrival of Tapeta its a totally different ball game.
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