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I was wondering if any forumite had compiled statistics on the No 1 draw on all the AW course in England this year? I expect the success rate is extremely poor.
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RSB AW Stat[nl][/nl]69 wins, 571 runs, 12.1% strike rate, 1.07 A/E, -14.2% loss, 64.5 Exp, 0.3 Archie
from 1/1/24 all aw tracks stall 1 |
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Thank you very much, mr combustible. Not as bad as I expected though.
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Great work Mr.C
Excuse my ignorance... What is 0.3 Archie? Thanks |
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Archie is a measure of the likelihood of a set of results being down to chance, as opposed to being statistically significant. The higher the value, the more statistically significant the set of results. An archie value of 0.3 equates to them being 58% down to chance, and therefore not statistically significant.
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There would be no relevance in any respect regardless given the different track configurations and random number of runners etc, so pretty pointless!!
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And what fecking use is mixing 5/6f races with middle distance races ? Never mind h'caps/non-h'caps ?
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It may have no have interest for some people but does for me and that is why I asked.
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Cheers Latalomne
Nothing to do with Archie Andrews then |
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Very similar to many posts as being relevant to some and not to others.
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I agree it is a relevant issue for AW tracks - though not sure why you thought it might be a particular issue for this current year Sparrow, was there some logic to that?
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Stu there is no relevance unless it is broken down to individual tracks, distances and race types, even then what worth is it when even the weather would have to be a factor?
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I'd agree it's more useful if broken down into categories, though might still be something about all the 'inside' runners to consider.
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I did require all AW races stu but perhaps might have asked for the last twelve months or so.
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On Flatstats you can break it down by track, race type, distance, field size and many other factors
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Many thanks for your input, combustible.
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Did you think something had changed sparrow more recent? Track nature or riding styles? Those can of course affect inner runners to some extent.
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I wasn't sure about whether anything had changed stu but had noticed for some time how so few horses from that draw were successful. There are of course reasons for that which any regular racegoer would know by know.
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Like a lot of draw Positives/Negatives you have to read between the lines a fair bit. The Fibresand at Southwell was probably the best example of that. If you understood it then you would really struggle not to make a decent chunk. Low draw generally the kiss of death but not always. When they last relayed the Fibresand things changed somewhat and since the arrival of Tapeta its a totally different ball game.
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