George's 2024 Selection Thread

Top marks GB
Shandies on you

98.42 on here, BSP. Well done George.

Superb George

VWD

Thanks again for the kind words.

Obviously the choice of celebratory drink will have to be a couple of 'shandies'!

WD George gl ....

Oi Oi, top class GB.

Great analysis, well done George

WD George, top bombing!

Cheers guys.
Good luck today.

I'm going to take a chance on a couple over hurdles at prices.

Nawraq, 1pt EW @ 25-1, 2.00 Downpatrick
Init Together, 1pt EW @ 10-1. 2.00 Downpatrick

Nawraq won't be winning anything if he runs like he did just five days ago at Sligo over hurdles when finishing only 11th of 13 on soft ground, but he does seem better on a sounder surface so hopefully today's better ground can help, and he'd previously run well on the Flat at Naas (10f, g-f) when finishing second of 20 last month, albeit off a lowly mark, where he kept finding for pressure having looked vulnerable from some way out, an effort that suggested he may stay further and offers hope for today's 2m2f trip over obstacles.

Init Together is 6YO who's a maiden after 18 starts but was only just denied by a nose at Leopardstown (9f, good) last season in a field of 22, an effort which suggested there's surely a race to be won with him. He hasn't had much racing since and only reappeared in June, but again ran well at Leopardstown (9f, good) last month when finishing 5th of 21.

He's since run over hurdles at Wexford (2m1/2f, good) where he could never get involved from off the pace, and ran just okay back on the level last time at Gowran (9.5f, g-f) when finishing 4th of 14 from a wide draw.

Like Nawraq, he's lowly-rated on the level, but he's running in a basement grade here, so while he too has to prove his stamina for this, the ground should hopefully suit and he's shown enough on the level to suggest he can be competitive in a race of this nature.

==========================

Carmarthen, 1pt EW @ 17-2, 3.22 Southwell

Carmarthen hasn't really progressed in three starts back on turf since winning at Wolverhampton (6f) early last month, but she is of interest back on Tapeta based on that winning form given she had the current favourite for today's race Amroon behind her in third and actually meets him on 2lb better terms here.

It remains to be seen if this track suits as well as Wolverhampton given she did make the running when winning there, but she remains unexposed on the all-weather and interesting to see if the return to a synthetic surface can be the catalyst for an improved effort.

* 2.30 Downpatrick

Missed your post yesterday, fantastic winner well done

Thanks cobs.

Init Together ran alright to finish second (11-1 SP), but Nawraq was never travelling well and finished tailed off.

As for Carmarthen, the only thing I got right there was that she was handicapped to finish ahead of early favourite Amroon, but that was only good enough to finish fifth.

2024 Running P/L: +175.65 pts

Rock City Falls, 1pt win @ 9-1, 7.00 Newbury

I'm going to take a chance on Rock City Falls, who's the outsider of four for this class 5 handicap. He didn't shape too badly in a couple of his qualifying runs earlier this year at Southwell and Wolverhampton at trips of around a mile whilst suggesting further may suit in time.

He has to prove his can be effective on turf as his handicap debut last month at Ffos Las (12f, g-s), when returning from over three months off and easy to back, didn't suggest he was an imminent winner when finishing 5th of 6, beaten 7L. However, the run might have been needed on ground that was possibly easier than ideal, and time has shown that he didn't face an easy task anyway as the winner was Night Breeze who has won twice since including a Racing League handicap, and the runner-up was the Sir Mark Prescott-trained Godsend, who had won his previous start and has since completed a hat-trick of wins over longer trips. The fourth has since run well on the all-weather against a James Owen-trained stable switcher and rapid improver, and the sixth subsequently bolted up in a Nottingham handicap over further.

Rock City Falls is actually up in grade this evening but only one of his rivals has a higher rating, so while it's a concern this could turn into a tactical affair, hopefully the better surface can suit and first-time cheekpieces can be of benefit.

Withdrawn at 1.55 on account of the "going".

Good, drying out? What were they hoping for?

And now too late to post my original (shortie) nap.

Ffs's

Zero Fighter, 1pt EW @ 25-1, 4.30 Gowran Park (5 PLACES)

Zero Fighter probably ran better than his finishing position suggested at Bellewstown (one mile, g-y) last week when returning from three months off, when from a wide draw he contested what appeared an honest pace, in a race that was run in a time over a second quicker than the other division, and he only lost second place inside the final furlong before fading to finish 6th.  He has ground to make up on the third-placed Pascalia, but when claims are taken into account he's 7lb better off for just under three lengths.

It has to be said that the selection now has an inexperienced claimer (Kyle Faulkner) taking over again in the plate for this apprentice handicap, who has only made the frame once from 17 rides, but that place did come aboard Zero Fighter (in a Dundalk handicap), who's he ridden five times previously.

It's a concern that the ground will probably be faster today and that this is a quick turnaround given the absence prior to last week, but he hasn't had many chances on turf and hopefully he can run well again for Kyle Faulkner.

Sioux Eagle, 1pt EW @ 8-1, 5.35 Gowran Park

Sioux  Eagle was well backed when returning from an 8-month break when reappearing over C/D in June, and his backers were perhaps unfortunate as he ended up having quite a tough trip around the outer in race where the other principals had inner trips, and having made the effort to lead around 2f out, he paid the price for the extra ground covered by surrendering the lead inside the last half-furlong and dropping to third place.

His only run since saw him finish third over 14f at Fairyhouse in a six-runner contest, form which looks all the better now as the winner Extensio (who had 10lb claimed off is back) has since followed up in a handicap at the Ebor festival.

The selection isn't well in with the market principals in this maiden as he has 6lb to find with Mr Percy on official ratings, and the useful hurdler Winter Fog has already run to a decent level on his sole Flat start to date, but a chance is taken at the odds as there should be races to be won with the lightly-raced Sioux Eagle.

A couple of poor ones today.

Zero Fighter ran well last week when returning from over three months off, but turned out relatively quickly he dropped right away on this occasion.

Sioux Eagle, who probably would have landed a punt on his reappearance but for a tough trip, proved very easy to back on this occasion, albeit he didn't face an easy task in maiden company, and he didn't offer much resistance up the home straight.

2024 Running P/L: +171.65 pts

Greatgadian, 1pt EW @ 22-1, 3.15 Kempton (4 PLACES)

Greatgadian has a decent record on the all-weather and although his four wins on synthetics have come at other tracks, he's able to race off a mark 4lb lower than when looking unlucky over C/D in one of the qualifiers for this London Mile Series Final back in February, having been denied a clear run when looking as though he was about to mount a serious challenge. He followed this with an eyecatching second in a competitive 0-95 at Newcastle (7f) where little went right.

He hasn't been as good in four starts since which is why his mark has dropped but it's easy enough to excuse his two runs back from an 81-day break, as the first came in a Royal Ascot handicap when a 125-1 shot, and last time in a Racing League handicap at Chepstow he probably found the softening ground against him.

Hopefully those two runs back have put him spot on for this, and while he has a wide draw to deal with, he looks worth chancing each-way at the odds back under more suitable conditions.

Kelpie Grey, 1pt EW @ 20-1, 5.15 Haydock (4 PLACES)

It's a bit of a concern that Kelpie Grey is trading at bigger odds than might have been expected considering he comes here on the back of a respectable effort at Carlisle (7f, good) where he was returning from a 76-day break and fared best of the prominent-racers in a contest where the first two home challenged more towards the stands-side.

The step back up to a mile shouldn't bother as he won a 14-runner mile handicap round Musselburgh in April (albeit off a stone lower mark) and drying ground shouldn't be an issue as his last two wins have come on good ground.

It could be connections have a race in mind for him at Ayr's Western meeting which isn't too far away now, so it will be interesting to see how he goes in the betting closer to the off, but a chance is taken at the odds, particularly as he hasn't had many chances at today's trip.

Greatgadian was dropped in from his wide draw but nothing got into it from off the pace as the first four home were  in the leading four throughout.

Kelpie Grey wasn't able to go with the first three home inside the final furlong having tried to make all but did find just enough to hang on for the extra place. On this evidence 7f probably does suit better when he's ridden in this manner.

2024 Running P/L: +172.65 pts

Chatty, 1pt EW @ 12-1, 5.03 Carlisle (4 PLACES)

Chatty shaped like a sure-fire future winner when finishing third at Wetherby in June (7f, good), when always close-up on a decent gallop in a race where the first two came from off the pace, and the way he ran on suggested he'd have no trouble staying further. So it's a bit disappointing he's still a maiden four starts later, but he ran respectably the next twice when finishing runner-up at Redcar (one mile, g-f) to one who was winning the first leg of a hat-trick, and then he bumped into a David Simcock-trained handicap debutant at Doncaster (one mile) who was encountering soft ground for the first time and had a good 3lb claimer aboard.

The selection has been particularly disappointing the last twice but those runs did come in stronger races and he's back into a grade more in keeping with his rating this time. He seems versatile regarding going so hopefully he can cope with today's ground, and there's no complaint regarding his current rating as he's back on the same mark as he was for that good Wetherby effort.

A third consecutive poor effort from Chatty, and while he might have had excuses the last twice in terms of grade, not sure he had any excuse this time, unless he ideally wants a better surface.

2024 Running P/L: +170.65 pts

Peace Walk, 1pt EW @ 8-1, 4.30 Chester

Peace Walk had looked quite a promising sort last autumn as a juvenile on soft / heavy ground, staying on strongly over 7.5f at Beverley to draw clear in a novice, and then better form in defeat at Ayr (one mile) when failing by just a nose to concede 12lb to Lava Stream, who this season has won a Listed race at Goodwood before going close in the Ribblesdale.

The selection has been disappointing this term and it's a concern that some from his yard have run poorly in recent weeks (the latest example being Thunder Wonder yesterday), but he has dropped 11lb in the ratings this season and this will be the first opportunity he's had this campaign to race on soft / heavy ground.

Glitterella, 1pt EW @ 11-2, 7.10 Salisbury (4 PLACES)

Glitterella has been weak in the betting this morning but she's an improving filly according to RPRs and this contest is a slight drop back in grade for her. She didn't look entirely straightforward on her penultimate start at Haydock (6f, good) where she hung left under two furlongs out and was headed but then showed good resolution to regain second place, and although no match for the winner, he had become well handicapped and was evidently ready to do his best on returning from a long absence and a wind-op.

The selection has since put in another respectable effort at Bath (5f, g-f) where she only went down by a short-head, and the filly who was just behind her in third place, has since gone down by just a nose in a stronger handicap at Chester.

The return to 6f shouldn't bother and hopefully this is a good opportunity for her to lose her maiden tag provided her low draw doesn't prove to be a disadvantage.

* Forgot to mention: first-time blinkers for Peace Man, and he has a 5lb pull with The Crafty Mole from last time out at Thirsk (14f, good) when he finished ten lengths behind that rival, so he does need the return to more testing ground to spark a revival.

In one fell swoop, Paddy cut Glitterella into 4-1 from 11-2 at 1.27 (according to the oddschecker graph). Eat your heart out hulk23.

A couple of disappointments today.

Peace Of Walk was down in the weights and for the first time this season back on the sort of surface that he seemed effective on as a juvenile, but the big question was if or not he was in any form to take advantage, and the answer was a resounding NO. This was a 0-80 and a 2lb drop will allow him into a 0-72, so while he needs to conclusively prove that he's trained on, a return to form from out of the blue wouldn't totally surprise, especially given the yard, and it's possible he may appreciate a drop in trip.

Glitterella didn't see her race out having sat mid-div on the rail and the conclusion I'd draw from this is that she needs a better surface.

2024 Running P/L: +166.65 pts

Solid Silver, 1pt EW @ 13-2, 12.55 Lingfield

Solid Silver finished well behind Ship To Shore last time out over C/D but I think a line can be put through the run as far as Solid Silver is concerned because in that amateur riders' contest she was positioned on the rail behind one of the outsiders and when that one weakened, she ended up being shuffled back and her chance was effectively ended.

Prior to that she'd run well in races at Kempton and Newcastle, notably so on the former occasion when although no match a Hughie Morrison-trained filly who had evidently been primed for a big effort under Oisin Murphy, she finished a clear second with a couple of today's rivals in behind.

The selection hasn't had many chances on the AW and has shaped as though there is a win in her so hopefully this pans out better than it did last time.

Solar Edge, 1pt EW @ 14-1, 4.30 Bath (4 PLACES)

Solar Edge has been steadily getting the hang of things and he got off the mark on his nursery debut at Chepstow (5f, g-s) when pulling away with a more experienced rival. This is undoubtedly tougher off a 5lb higher mark upped in grade and Gina Mangan has since lost her 3lb claim, but he should be open to further improvement after just four start and looks worth chancing each-way at a double-figure price.

Elinor Dashwood, 1pt EW @ 50-1, 5.45 Leopardstown (5 PLACES)

Elinor Dashwood didn't last long in the Sheikh Obaid colours having not really gone as a juvenile after winning a Haydock maiden. However, she seemed to be improving for current connections this summer when winning at Gowran (7f, good) and then running creditably against male opposition in a rated race at Naas.

Of her three starts since, the ground went against her at Galway, she ran then ran well to finish a running-on third at Cork (7f, g-f), and last time over C/D when finishing only 7th of 8, she shaped as though she could have done with a stronger gallop, keeping on to be beaten around four lengths at the finish.

She's a hold-up filly drawn on the inside in a big field round Leopardstown, so she's going to need a decent pace and luck in running, while she still has to conclusively prove her stamina for a mile and could do with the ground drying out further, but I'm not sure she's fully exposed yet for her current yard and a chance is taken each-way at big odds.

GL today

Cheers Cobs.

Elinor Dashwood saved the day by just hanging on for the extra place. She was ridden closer to the pace this time and got through on the rail up the home straight but her stamina was giving way in the closing stages and, having lost third place, she would have finished 6th had the Johnston-trained Arisaig got the gaps against the rail.

Solid Silver's run made for frustrating viewing as having been rushed up round the outer to go prominent early, she was a bit keen when the sectionals were going into the red, in a race where the first and third were ridden patiently. The selection then got racing soon enough against Ship To Shore, but having seemingly 'won' that 'duel', she was however against the dead-rail up the home straight and not only did she lose the lead late on, she also came off third best in a three-way go for third place. Tames lions this game

Solar Edge, who was racing in a higher grade this time, helped force the pace against the far rail in a race where the first four home came from the outside four stalls, and didn't see his race out. It was also no bad thing to be drawn high in the closing sprint on the card, so maybe there will be other days for Solar Edge when back down in class and finding races panning out more favourably.

2024 Running P/L: +171.65 pts

Apricot Ice, 1pt EW @ 40-1, 1.50 Curragh (6 PLACES)

I selected Apricot Ice and Shandy three weeks ago at Naas in the same Group 3 (6f, g-s) on the basis that they had both run better than their finishing positions had suggested on their previous start over that course and distance in a Listed race when probably disadvantaged by where they had raced on the track, and Shandy did the thread a big favour by winning at 50-1, albeit being advantaged on that occasion by racing stands-side, whereas Apricot Ice finished well held in the far side group. Shandy has taken a hit from the assessor for that success by being put up 17lb and a 10lb claimer is enlisted to try and help offset that penalty.

As the draw could be an issue for both of them today, I'm just going to select Apricot Ice on this occasion, who is 2-2 over C/D and whose mark is just 4lb higher than when winning a 16-runner handicap here in June, when she had three of today's rivals in behind. Colin Keane has opted to ride the stable's other runner in this who is potentially better drawn, but a chance is taken on Apricot Ice at decent odds as she's probably had excuses the last twice and won't mind being back on sounder surface, and hopefully some benefit can be derived from the application of a tongue tie.

Under Curfew, 1pt EW @ 25-1, 4.20 Bath (5 PLACES)

A couple of the sprint winners on last evening's card at Bath were drawn high and came down the outer of the field, and while that might just have been a consequence of how races panned out and it may be different today with the ground presumably drying out, I'm going to chance one drawn high in the big field sprint.

Under Curfew may find this class 2 hotter than he's used to, but he's 3-10 at the track including one at today's 5.5f distance and he won't mind the ground drying out. Tony Carroll runs three in this and the selection is probably third choice on jockey bookings, but he's generally been in fair form of late and while he faces a tough task here, hopefully track position can help his chance.

Apricot Ice not competitive this time and Colin Keane chose right.

Just a footnote on the draw at Bath yesterday when it seemed no bad thing to be drawn high in a couple of the sprints. There was actually a false rail in place which has been taken down for today, so whether that false rail was an aid to those drawn high, not sure, but it will be interesting to see how the races pan out today.

It wasn't a bad idea as it turned out to look for something from a double-figure draw that might come down the outer, with the first and third taking that route, but it wasn't Under Curfew who was switched inside to get some cover and wasn't up to this grade.

2024 Running P/L: +167.65 pts

Apeeling, 1pt EW @ 20-1, 4.35 Yarmouth

It looked a good effort from Apeeling three starts back at Ascot (5f, good) when she finished third behind Alcazan (whom she meets here on 6lb better terms for 1.25L), when perhaps being at a slight disadvantage having been drawn lowest and raced furthest from the stands-rail.

Of her two starts since, Apeeling was sent off favourite when disppointing in a Racing League handicap at Chepstow (5f, g-s) but was reportedly unsuited by the undulations and might have found the softening ground against her, and last time at Kempton (6f) she didn't get a clear run before running on well for 4th place.

The selection is up in grade today and Oisin Murphy has jumped ship, but she's able to race off a mark 1lb lower than for that good Ascot effort, while the more the ground dries out the better, and as she appears to have a bit of size about her hopefully there's scope for improvement as she matures.

Too Much, 1pt EW @ 66-1, 8.00 Newcastle (4 PLACES)

Too Much's form figures for her current yard don't inspire much confidence but she hasn't been helping herself by racing too freely in her races, however, she lasted longer when a hood was tried on her latest start at Southwell (7f) when only being headed inside the final furlong before fading to finish 6th and not that far behind the 4th-placed Snash (who's currently single figures in the betting for this evening's contest).

The selection, who was a winner last year over a mile at Southwell off a 6lb higher mark when trained by James Horton, may be better served by the Nottinghamshire venue rather than the stiffer nature of this track, but I suspect there's a better effort in her for current connections when consenting to race more efficiently, so a chance is taken each-way at huge odds, with the hood retained.

Apeeling's 2nd over CD in a novice last year in a decent time also makes him of interest today, he's on my radar too EW... GL

Cobs, she did reverse the Ascot form with Alcazan but that was only good enough to finish 5th of 7 in this higher class race, albeit she kept on well and showed enough to suggest she can win again when dropped back in grade.

Too Much, who was any price you liked, again showed a bit in that she led until around a furlong out on what probably wasn't the best part of the track and, having been given one reminder, wasn't hard ridden once held. There's going to be weaker races than this one for her to run in and perhaps will be better suited by being back on a turning track.

2024 Running P/L: +163.65 pts

Yes, I did get the 4 places ew for Apeeling but can't say I feel hard done by on this occasion

I, along with many others I'm sure, keep looking in George, Marathon not a sprint & all that.

On a losing run of 18, Lee, 4 of which did make the frame. I think it was on my thread two years ago at around this time of year when I was on about +190 and reaching the 200 looked a formality, by the end of October I was struggling to keep it above 100

I've just read that Summer Of Love broke the course record in that Yarmouth race yesterday, assisted by a tailwind.

I don't have anything for this thread today.

Disciplined

Surrey Force, 1pt EW @ 11-1, 4.45 Chester (4 PLACES)

It was just a 0-63 round Wolverhampton in which Surrey Force finished second last time when having his second try over 12f, but the winner is from an in-form stable and had been threatening to win a race, and I thought the selection ended up having quite a tough trip having been caught wide before eventually getting to the rail after seven furlongs, then was taken on for the lead from some way out but stayed on well once headed to press the more patiently-ridden winner to the line, with the opposition spaced out behind them.

This looks tougher back up in grade and faces a different test now upped further in trip to 14.5f on good to soft ground, but that latest evidence certainly suggested he's not short of stamina so interesting to see how he gets on here, and while the draw hasn't been kind with him landing the outside stall, hopefully with the rail being out for parts of the journey it won't be the big disadvantage that it can be.

Realt Na Ri, 1pt EW @ 15-2, 4.55 Navan

Realt Na Ri didn't give her running at all last time at Bellewstown in a race in which Market Timing finished second, but was reported afterwards to have been showing signs of being in season and perhaps easier ground wasn't ideal either. She'd previously posted a couple of good efforts on good ground when chasing home a Ballydoyle colt in a well-run 13f maiden round Leopardstown, then wasn't disgraced in finishing 4th of 7 in a 12f Listed race at Gowran.

Hopefully that poor run last time was just a blip and being back on a quicker surface can help, as may this first attempt at 14f.

Surrey Force (12-1) was dropped in from his wide draw on this step up in trip, and he looked unlucky not to finish closer than third as he was travelling fine from some way out but had to wait for a clear run before running on well towards the inner. It was frustrating as it was starting to look as though challenging down the centre / outer was no bad thing as the ground was getting poached towards the inner, and he was drawn widest.

Realt Na Ri was another to be dropped in but not sure those tactics are ideal for her because when she second at Leopardstown she was kept close to the pace and all she did was stay on, and she just didn't have the gears to get involved here from off the pace. Also the times suggested they'd done a 'good' job with the watering which probably didn't help her chance either.

2024 Running P/L: +163.05 pts

Granite Bay, 1pt EW @ 7-1, 5.30 Listowel

Granite Bay was improving in May with wins over 10f (Cork, good) and 12f (Roscommon, good) so it was a bit of a concern that he wasn't seen again for over three months, but he returned to the latter course (12f, soft) three weeks ago with an effort that probably wanted marking up considering he wasn't done any favours at the start and then did plenty of running in a prominent position in a race where the first two emerged from the rear and might have been at an advantage challenging away from the inside rail, before fading to finish 4th, with El Regalo (patiently ridden) behind him in fifth. It was quickest of the three 12f races on the card, which included the maiden won by Rosso (who carried 3lb more).

It has to be hoped that Granite Bay doesn't bounce off that effort and he has his stamina to prove for 14f, but presumably he'll be ridden with a tad more restraint this time, appears to be verstaile regarding ground and hopefully is still open to improvement after just six starts.

Tiger Trap, 1pt EW @ 5-1, 8.00 Newcastle

Tiger Trap has been shaping as though he has a bigger effort in him at this track having shaped okay over 7f here last November when probably not helped by racing down the centre without cover but keeping on okay, and again over that distance when returned here for his latest start when catching the eye making some late headway under Hollie Doyle, who was riding him for the first time and retains the ride on this drop in grade.

All five of Tiger Trap's siblings, which include three-time course winner Young Tiger (also trained by Tom Tate), won races but at sprint trips, so he does have to prove his stamina for a stiff mile, even if this becomes tactical, but that latest effort did suggest he's worth a try over it.

Nice one,George...now for the double..good luck..

Thanks lead on, unfortunately the other one was a disappointment.

It could be Tiger Trip is both useless and tripless, but if he did have an excuse, like the favourite Balqaa who also ran poorly, is that they didn't get any cover on a night when times were on the slow side and there was reportedly a "slight" headwind, and in that particular race where the winner and 100-1 third were held up with cover before being produced to challenge.

Against that though, there were horses on the card who didn't get any cover but still won or ran well.

2024 Running P/L: +169.45 pts

Wd George gl ....

Nice pick George

Thanks Virgin & Cobs, good luck today.

Sassy Glory, 1pt EW @ 15-2, 8.00 Wolverhampton

Sassy Glory is by Oasis Dream but there seems little doubt about her stamina for 12f judging from her latest effort when finishing second of 15 at Thirsk on good to soft, for which she is due to go up 2lb, when she fared much the best of those ridden prominently, with the first three finishing clear.

Her first attempt at the trip had come on her previous start at this track in a slightly stronger grade when finishing 4th of 8 having been held up, but it could be forcing tactics suit her best so hopefully she's given another prominent ride, now her stamina appears to be more assured.

Areana, 1pt EW @ 14-1, 8.15 Dundalk (4 PLACES)

Areana's fitness has to be taken on trust returning here from nearly eight months off and starting out for a new trainer, but she remains of interest as she had suggested she was sure to be winning races, particularly so based on her handicap debut at Tipperary (12.5f, good) in May of last year when finishing second of seventeen from a wide draw, when she was keen enough, didn't get the clearest of runs and still looked green before running on well.

I suppose it's therefore disappointing she didn't get her head in front after and she didn't always convince with her finishing effort when tried at this track but still ran creditably to finish not too far away in four fourteen-runner handicaps at 10.5 / 12f.

Areana's rookie trainer hasn't had loads of runners but he's won with one of three horses he's run on the Flat, and with one of the five he's run over jumps, and it will be interesting to see how he gets on with this aquisition who has shown winning potential.

Rock City Falls, 1pt EW @ 11-1, 8.30 Wolverhampton (3 PLACES)

Rock City Falls shaped with definite promise in a couple of his qualifying runs on the AW back in the spring, notably so on his second start at Southwell (one mile) when finishing fourth in what was quite a well-run contest. The winner Invincible Aura won off a reduced mark back on the AW last month and runs this evening in the 7.00, the second Castle In The Sand hasn't run on the AW since but has run well in defeat on turf when the ground has been good, whilst the third Blake has been a big improver when encountering soft ground.

The selection again didn't shape too badly on his third run for a mark when finishing fourth at Wolverhampton (8.5f) in a race that was won by his heavily-backed stablemate Grey Cuban, who has won three times since on turf and is now rated 98.

Rock City Falls hasn't been great in two handicaps on turf since returning from a three-month break but the Ffos Las (12f, g-s) contest he ran in turned out to be a warm heat as the winner was Night Breeze who has won twice since including a Racing League handicap, and the runner-up was the Sir Mark Prescott-trained Godsend, who had won his previous start and has since completed a hat-trick of wins over longer trips. The fourth has since run well on the all-weather against a James Owen-trained stable switcher and rapid improver, and the sixth subsequently bolted up in a Nottingham handicap over further. His latest start at Hamilton can possibly be excused on account of heavy ground.

The Hugo Palmer-trained colt has to show he can be competitive in a handicap, but his yard was in great form at Newmarket yesterday, the season's leading apprentice Sean D Bowen is booked, a tongue-tie is added to the cheekpieces he wore last time, and a further drop in the weights allows him into this 0-66 now tried again on Tapeta.

GL George, Sassy Glory comes out well on my figures for the run at Thirsk and the CD run, so I will be on ew

Good luck to us both, Cobs.

That was a long write-up for one of mine regarding Rock City Falls, and after posting I realised I hadn't mentioned the step up in trip to 14f. Oh well, suffice I say I hope he improves for it!

Sassy Glory went from the front and traded odds-on in the run when looking in command turning into the home straight but was caught by a couple inside the final furlong. She ran right to the line to finish close-up and on this evidence may even stay further.

Areana ran well on her return to action to finish third having moved nicely into contention. She perhaps just lacks a change of gear on the surface and may ideally be suited by grass, on which she's only raced the three times and included that promising Tipperary effort.

They crawled round in Rock City Falls's race but it wouldn't have mattered how it panned out because he went out like a light in the home straight. He'd been very weak in the betting close to the off.

2024 Running P/L: +169.75 pts

Tennessee Stud, 1pt EW @ 15-2 , 2.35 Curragh

Tennessee Stud progressed nicely from his satisfactory Galway debut (8.5f, soft) when running on strongly to see off a Ballydoyle odds-on shot at Tipperary (9f, good), who had finished in front of his stablemate Trinity College when making his debut at Leopardstown. The Tipperary form received a boost when the fourth home, another Ballydoyle runner who was beaten over 12L when making his debut, took a step forward to win a Gowran maiden.

The selection is back in trip to a mile and on easier ground, and Declan McDonogh who's been aboard for both his starts is now on the seemingly Ballydoyle second-string in this, but I thought there was plenty to like about his win, and hopefully he's going to grab the rail here and prove a tough opponent to pass.

Boann, 1pt EW @ 16-1 , 7.00 Chelmsford (4 PLACES)

Boann's recent form figures don't inspire much confidence but I think she ran better than her finsihing position suggested on her latest start at Kempton (6f) in a slightly higher grade, when from a tricky draw she endured quite a tough trip in a well-run contest in which the first three home had inside trips, but she remained prominent until over a furlong out before gradually fading to finish 6th. The second home,  who has gone well at Kempton previously, has since won on turf.

The draw again hasn't been kind and she has to prove her effectiveness at this course (finished well held in one previous start here but it came in a Listed race and she still recorded an RPR of 76), but her mark has dropped to 69, which is 11lb lower than the mark she started the season on, Kaiya Fraser takes off 3lb, and this should be run at a good clip so hopefully she can slot into a nice position.

Tennessee Stud (9-1) ran well to finish second. It didn't pan out tactically as I'd hoped because Wayne Lordan was determined to lead on Trinity College and so Dylan Browne McGonagle just sat to the outer of him, and then couldn't match the winner for pace before keeping on well. Perhaps in hindsight he should have got busier sooner given the manner of the Tipperary win in order to make full use of his proven stamina.

Boann soon overcame a tricky draw under the in-form Kaiya Fraser to sit in behind the pace, which held up well in the only race on the card to be run inside the RP standard time, but the selection found disappointingly little inside the final furlong. She was declared to run wearing a tongue tie but there might have been an issue there as her tongue was lolling out, so might have had an excuse.

2024 Running P/L: +169 pts

Havana Rose, 1pt EW @ 40-1, 4.00 Ayr

Havana Rose's rating has fallen to a mark 13lb lower than when a good second at Pontefract (6f, g-s) last October, on what turned out to be her final turf run for Edward Bethell. She's mainly been campaigned on the all-weather since, and her three turf runs for her current trainer haven't been great, but she was given a two-month break in the summer during which time she underwent wind surgery and might have needed her return to action at Newcastle (7f) three weeks ago, where she did offer some encouragement in keeping on from off the pace into mid-division.

Havana Rose is now eligible for weaker races than this one, but she's probably better on turf than the AW, so might be worth chancing at the odds off her reduced mark with that recent comeback run behind her.

Dash Gordon, 1pt EW @ 20-1, 8.00 Newcastle (4 PLACES)

Dash Gordon might have won at Yarmouth (5f, g-f) in July on his fourth start had he consented to run in a straight line, and although that was just a 5-runner 0-50 classified stakes, the winner has run well in defeat since and the second, the prolific Sir Rodneyredblood, has won since back on the all-weather.

The selection has twice since shown (including last time in first-time blinkers which are quickly discarded) that his propensity to hang left is probably not now down to greenness but is an actual issue with him, and so with that in mind, while being drawn one on the straight course at Newcastle might not usually be preferable, in his case it's probably for the best, and I hope that Lewis Edmunds, who rides him for the first time, keeps to the outer and lets him to go to the far side if he hangs left again, for all that might not be ideal depending on how the track is playing.

He does need to prove he can be effective on the all-weather, but this half-brother to seven-time winner Song Of The Isles, has shown enough to suggest he can win at this lowly-level (even when racing from out of the handicap as he is here) when not compromising his chance by hanging left.

Nice price George wd gl ....

Excellent

Well done George, just seen your thread.!

well done gb nice hit

WD,George....fair gamble too..

Nice boost for the running total...excellent, George

Cheers all.

The trainer said afterwards that Dash Gordon hadn't been hanging left at home, so maybe it was just down to greenness / inexperience, and there was no sign of it tonight as he showed a good attitude under pressure to prevail. It was well punted close to the off, so hopefully the yard landed some nice bets, particularly as the trainer said he's having to pack up.

As for Havana Rose, she didn't run too badly despite finishing only 6th of the 9 runners, beaten 3L, having been keen early, and might have finished a bit closer but for finding herself running directly behind the outsider, which had gone tearing off in front, when that one unsurprisingly started to weaken.

2024 Running P/L: +191 pts

Well done George. Another great winner.

Serious gamble that, hope you were the one smashing the price. Superb.

Great pick George, hope you were on early, WD

WD GB

Smashed in

Don't look in often George, usually after you've picked a nice winner, still going well i see, keep it going, well done.

well done george , from the one box too

Thanks again for the positive comments.
Good luck today.

Dark Kestrel, 1pt EW @ 25-1, 6.10 Newcastle (4 PLACES)

Dark Kestrel has yet to win at Newcastle in six attempts but has made the frame in three of them, and although those placings came at the minimum trip, of his two attempts here over this evening's distance of 6f, he wasn't disgraced in the first of them which came in an amateur riders' contest last November, considering he appeared to go off too hard in front; and on his most recent start, which was his second run back following an 102-day absence, he caught the eye getting no luck up the stands-rail.

He has won over 6f on turf at Doncaster (when trained by the Gosdens), and he's only a pound above the mark he won off in May at Wolverhampton (5f, second and third have won since),  so while it's a concern that the market appears dismissive of his chance, a punt is taken each-way at the odds as that latest C/D run did suggest he was in some sort of form, and his yard have been among the winers of late.

Ten Commitments, 1pt EW @ 9-1, 7.00 Chelmsford (4 PLACES)

Ten Commitments never figured on his latest start in the Legends' race at the St Leger festival, but he'd been running well prior to that and he's of particular interest here based on his latest all-weather start which came at Kempton (7f) in early August, where he endured a wide trip from a tricky draw and in the circumstances did well to only lose second place inside the last half-furlong before finishing third, clear of the rest. The form worked out well with the winner, second, fourth and fifth having won since.

The selection didn't excel in two previous runs here but they came at the minimum trip following a break and when qualifying for a mark. He hasn't had many chances on the AW and is able to race off a 2lb lower mark than for that good Kempton effort.

Nice place,George...

Cheers lead on.

Got lucky there perhaps with Dark Kestrel (33-1 SP) as it looked as though he'd been done for 4th place by the finisher on the far side, but as it turned out he did get the nod for that position by a nose.

However, that was where my luck ran out because Ten Commitments was dropped in on the rail and was always going to need a lot of luck from that position, particularly given how that track tends to play, and just when it looked as though he was going to run on into a place, the gaps closed on him.

2024 Running P/L: +194.6 pts

WD GB
Churning it

Thanks Mad'.
Good luck today.

Azucena, 1pt EW @ 18-1, 8.00 Newcastle

Azucena had started the year off with a creditable third over C/D in April, but has been seemingly disappointing in just three starts since, but two of them came on turf on which she's only managed one place from nine starts (and for which has an 8lb lower official rating), and the other came here following a 113 day break during which time she had undergone wind surgery, with the run possibly being needed.

Her trainer is on the cold list having gone 85 days and 31 runners without a winner, so there has to be a query as to whether Azucena will be in the form to take advantage of a mark which is 11lb below what she won off in a C/D nursery two years ago, and is 5lb lower than for that encouraging reappearance run, but she's down in grade now returned to the AW and looks worth chancing each-way at the odds given her course record of one win and three places from seven starts.

Flew in GB
WD

Wd George gl ....

Terrific stuff, well done

Thanks Mad', Virgin & Cobs

2024 Running P/L: +216.2 pts

Average 5 points a week this year,pretty good George.
Discipline,patience,good form study.keep it up mate.top thread.

vwd george great tippin!

On a roll George. Well done.

Running out of superlatives, George....fandabidozi!

Very well done George.

Win, lose or draw, of all the selection threads, yours is always worth a read; it's clear how much time and effort you put in. I don't think it's a coincidence that your results usually reflect that. Great stuff.

Well done again George, don't really look at Newcastle very often so didn't see race or hang around for it, but appears selection won easily, vwd. A £200 profit over a year is excellent going, can't recall if it's level stakes or what but still exceptional form analysis.

Terrific results George. If we could all do that there would be no more bookmakers!

excellent stuff George

trap 1 again, well done george

..... (+216.2 Pts) .....

..  ..

Fantastic George

Thanks again for the kind words.

I said in my little write-up yesterday that Ann Duffield was on the RP's cold list, but she was actually in good company because so too were the Gosdens and the O'Neills, training partnerships which had both gone 27 runners without a winner and not had at least 25% of their runners placed in the previous two weeks, though the Gosdens had in fact had a winner the previous evening at Chelmsford but after the paper had gone to print.

I'm having to concede defeat today because the two I had cases for are shorter in the betting than I was anticipating and one of them in particular, with poor recent form figures, has more than halved in price.

Good luck today.

WD GB

Cheers PHS.
Good luck today.

Cowardofthecounty, 1pt EW @ 20-1, 1.30 Longchamp

Cowardofthecounty is of a little interest here now he belatedly has the chance to race again on ground with (hopefully) some dig in it. He impressed on his debut back in April at the Curragh (6f, soft-heavy) when he did well to overcome greenness and win going away from Whistlejacket, and for all Ballydoyle 2YOs can improve plenty for their debuts, the subsequent Group 1 winner was well-backed and looked to know his job.

Perhaps Cowardofthecounty hasn't gone on as might have been expected given the immense promise of that debut win, but he appeared to find it all happening too quickly on faster ground in the Coventry and in the circumstances wasn't disgraced in finishing 7th and under 2L behind the winner Rashabar, who also runs here.

It could be his limitations have already been exposed as he did win a Group 3 on ground described as good and in a time inside Racing Post standard when winning a 7f Group 3 from Houquetot (who has since won a Group 3) at Deauville in August, so it's not as though he can't run to a decent level on a sound surface, and either side of this he failed to get competitive in Group races back at the Curragh.

The selection has enough to find on official ratings with the best of these but interesting to see if being back on an easier surface can be the catalyst for an improved showing.

A rare venture abroad and a search party was required to go out and find the selection after the race. Back to 0-55s on the AW for me.

2024 Running P/L: +214.2 pts

Havana Rose, 1pt EW @ 28-1, 2.50 Ayr

I'm going to give another chance to Havana Rose who was selected when she ran over C/D nine days ago, when I wrote:

Havana Rose's rating has fallen to a mark 13lb lower than when a good second at Pontefract (6f, g-s) last October, on what turned out to be her final turf run for Edward Bethell. She's mainly been campaigned on the all-weather since, and her three turf runs for her current trainer haven't been great, but she was given a two-month break in the summer during which time she underwent wind surgery and might have needed her return to action at Newcastle (7f) three weeks ago, where she did offer some encouragement in keeping on from off the pace into mid-division.

She finished behind a couple of today's rivals but perhaps the race didn't entirely go her way as she was keen enough early and then at a crucial stage found the outsider, who had gone tearing off in front, falling back into her lap. How much closer she might have finished it's hard to say, and I wonder if she might ideally be suited by a stiff 6f given she won over that trip at Carlisle as a juvenile and then there was the good effort at Pontefract on her final start for previous connections, but a chance is taken each-way at the prices, even though she's not well in here as she's due to drop 2lb.

Drawn To Dream, 1pt EW @ 33-1, 3.10 Bath

After Drawn to Dream had run well in a 14f handicap at Royal Ascot on her stable debut (when she didn't finish far behind Lmay, to whom she was conceding 9lb), I wondered if she might be one for the Cesarewitch given she was a 2m4f Listed winner in Germany on soft ground, and Jamie Osborne has won the major handicap with a filly previously, but that seemingly wasn't the plan and she turns up here in this 14f Listed race for fillies and mares.

The selection hasn't built on that encouraging start for new connections in four starts since, but it's possible to make excuses with one thing and another, having been turned out again quickly at Royal Ascot, then had two starts over 12f on quick ground which was probably sharp enough for her, and last time didn't face an easy task in a conditions race against Quickthorn at Salisbury (14f, g-s).

Drawn To Dream has been very weak in the betting this morning, but isn't out of this on official ratings, and while she has to prove herself on heavy ground, she shouldn't fail for lack of stamina.

Havana Rose got a clear shot at it this time but couldn't hang on for a place, ending up 4th.

The market was icy cold on the chance of Drawn To Dream despite official ratings giving her some sort of chance, and she had run well off 105 in a handicap at Royal Ascot, but she always looked to be doing too much on the front end here and the game was up for her over 2f out.

2024 Running P/L: +210.2 pts

Mini Magna, 1pt EW @ 66-1, 3.45 York (5 PLACES)

Mini Magna is just a play at the prices. He finished 4th of 14 in the 3YO handicap over C/D last month which was won by Duran (whom he meets on 5lb better terms for 1.5L), with Vince L'amour in third place. Both the selection and Vince L'amour might have been slightly disadvantaged racing more towards the centre as it did seem on that rain-hit card that there was an advantage in challenging closer to the stands-rail.

This is tougher for all three of them as it's a slightly higher grade and open to older horses too, but at around five times the price of his old rivals, Mini Magna looks worth chancing each-way with five places on offer.

Never Cry Never, 1pt EW @ 33-1, 6.30 Dundalk (4 PLACES)

Never Cry Never is of a little interest back at Dundalk as he ran out a decisive winner of a 6f maiden here last November in a contest that produced comparatively the best time on the card. The selection left Fozzy Stack after and wasn't seen again for over nine months, and he hasn't offered much in two starts on turf for his current yard over 5/6f.

There's clearly a bit to be taken on trust here given the absence and subsequent poor runs on turf, and he has to prove that he can be effective at 7f, but hopefully a return to this surface can prompt a better effort.

I said in my little write-up that both Mini Magna and Vince L'amour had probably run well against a track bias in a C/D handicap last month, and as 14-1 flashed up on the screen when Vince L'amour came home in front, I was left asking myself why the hell I didn't just select them both. Oh well, such is life...

As for Mini Magna, he was on the wrong side again, this time as the smaller far side group dominated, but it wouldn't have mattered where he'd raced as he dropped right out.

A Betfair SP of 46 for Never Cry Never, even with Billy Lee booked, and he never figured. Maybe one for later in the Dundalk season when he's down the weights and the market vibes are more positive.

2024 Running P/L: +206.2 pts

Moltophino, 1pt EW @ 16-1, 4.25 Naas (4 PLACES)

A couple of good efforts from Moltophino when a visor was first applied, finishing second of 13 at Navan (6f, good) in August to Transcendental (whom he meets on 8lb  better terms for that 3.75L defeat), and last month when finishing 4th of 9 at Cork (6f, g-f), where he disputed the lead until well inside the final furlong before dropping to 4th place, with Collective Power behind him in fifth place (who's now 3lb worse off).

The two seemingly disappointing runs since with the visor left off are easy enough to forgive as he was poorly drawn in a big field at the Curragh (6f, good), and last time out when stepped up to a mile back at Cork (yielding), he was held up in a race where it paid to be ridden prominently and he didn't get a clear run up the straight either.

He is eligible for weaker races than this one, and he has the highest draw to deal with (though being drawn high on the sprint course here this season has sometimes looked an advantage), but the visor goes back on and he looks worth chancing at decent odds given he still looked in form last time at Cork.

Surrey Fire, 1pt EW @ 6-1, 5.05 York (5 PLACES)

Surrey Fire looks an interesting runner on this belated second start on turf. He shaped with plenty of promise on his debut at Nottingham (8.5f, soft) last October when finishing second to Going The Distance, who has won both his starts this season including the King George V Stakes (Heritage Handicap) at Royal Ascot and is now rated 101.

The selection is out of a Cesarewitch winner and one might have thought he'd be one for middle distances and beyond on grass this season but he's been kept to the all-weather for this three starts, winning a 10f maiden at Lingfield on the second of them, and back there for his handicap debut over 12f for his latest start, he didn't see his race out having pulled hard.

He's still a colt and could do with settling better now dropped back in trip to 10.5f, but's he's unknown quantity in this sphere who retains the potential to do better.

Hard to tell from the side-on if or not Moltophino got a clean run through as the field congregated towards the stands-rail but either way he ran on well from off the pace into second place.

A shocker from Surrey Fire, who wore a red hood to post, not that it did him any good because he took a keen hold again in the race. Maybe he'll be a different proposition if and when he's gelded.

2024 Running P/L: +206.4 pts

Nice place there WD

I hadn't realised that Going The Distance, who had beaten Surrey Mist in that backend Nottingham race and went on to win at Royal Ascot, had sadly died. I heard Mark Howard refer to the horse as "ill-fated" and it is on his RP form page.

Cheers Cobs.

* Surrey Fire, not Mist

LOL, long day today. Still getting over Dinons being nutted at Hexham...