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Martingale success stories
Martingale success stories
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I'd play the side of the trade that I though offered the value - increasing variance , but winning more long term if my opinion is right (enough times) - but I still might be winning because I am lucky (or losing if I am unlucky) - You can't be certain , all you can do is look at your results with more certainty as the number of bets increases.
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One persons perception of value will end up being another persons lay or the exchange wouldn't exist.
You have to prove/confirm it mathematically to class it as true value otherwise it's just your own personal opinion. If you can prove it then great as your over broke becomes another persons over round. In all honesty though i'm talking about utilizing what bookmakers are forced to offer as there's never really any value in the 100% book world on the exchange and that really is as personal opinion as it gets. Pleasing though isn't it that we can all find different ways to make it work and still debate different strategies  |
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My point is that you can't prove it mathematically in the real world....
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Technically though Johnny whatever your methods you can prove it just by finding a book under 100%.
Also the arbers i've known ( or rather had to deal with ) have no interest in thinking which side of the coin they want to be successful , they all play piggy in the middle and want something for their trouble so the last thing arbers want to do is express an opinion. Off for some food , not had time for a bite today with that Rybakina match going on seemingly forever. Best of luck all |
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Two horse race - prices 2.00 , 2.04 - What can we determine here :-
- One of the horses is definitely value , but we don't know which one. - Both horses could be value, probably unlikely , albeit not much value in either if this statement is true. - Quite likely one of the horses will be bad value, but we don't know which one. And how to the subjective bit - How to play ? Is there a right way or a wrong way ? Should you nick the small guaranteed profit , but almost certainly one of the two bets placed will be a bet at a bad value price , thereby giving away a slice of the value on the other bet ? OR - Try to maximise your profit by using your opinion to pick the horse that , in your opinion is the incorrect price ? |
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the best value martin gale cistern known to man is back the outsider in the cricket coin toss markets.
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no it isnt
get a security guard to accompany the captains as near as he can to the middle, while linked up on the phone to whoever as soon as the toss is known he will relay it and you have 6 seconds before the price moves violently |
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market suspends when ump tosses the coin.
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Drone footage zooming in on the coin as it lands.
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Don't all Martingale/investment/betting systems fail cause of "black swans".... events that you cannot put into models but have that 0.0001% of occuring
18 reds in a row on a single zero table is 0.0001%,, Nick Leeson would have got away with it only for the Kobe Earthquake. Also Russia defaulting on its debt was the start undoing of LTCM https://www.investopedia.com/terms/l/longtermcapital.asp |
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Ronnie or Novak best martingale system but need very deep pockets
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There’s that guy on YouTube who bakes stuff but doubles the eggs every time he does a video on whatever he’s making.
One video was like 10 minutes of him breaking all the eggs. Cruised past a million subs in short order and closing in on 2mil. |
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If you want a small snapshot of why Martingale will not work, look at the coin toss of India in ODI's
They Have Lost 13 In A Row |
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So, if you were starting out trying to win 1 rupee on India winning the toss...
You'd have to be putting 16 thousand odd on the next one to achieve it Seems reasonable to me! |
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Thread title is an oxymoron.
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never ever played an online casino..
just went on bf casino (virtual) had £5 on black 6 times..landed on red 6 times. #went on casino live (real table) had £5 on black 6 times..4 black and 2 red. question,why would anyone play on virtual? |
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to back red 6 times
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ty al giv it a go later.
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martingale can work with variable odds betting like the horses by setting a bank limit and earning more banks than you bust - the thing is to be successful it requires your average win strike rate relative to your average odds to be such that it will also be successful at level stakes and as it’s easier to scale level stakes you’d be better off binning your successful martingale system and betting level stakes …. I think
the non-financial benefit of the martingale system though is that it’s like Russian roulette betting in that you wake up each day thinking is this the day I lose everything - keeps it interesting |