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Martingale success stories
Martingale success stories
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Replies: 98
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ffs , 3rd thinnest
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my wild years-jacob rees-mogg
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Final revised opinion , top twenty
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mitolo17 Jan 24 14:17Joined: 13 Apr 21 | Topic/replies: 4,123 | Blogger: mitolo's blog
my wild years-jacob rees-mogg  |
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was the question, have you ever seen jacob rees-mogg and happyhibby in the same room?
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Thirteen against the Bank by Norman Leigh is a good read - reverse labouchere on all 6 evens shots....make the bank increase their stakes after they have lost.
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Bare in mind you need odds of 2.1 even 2.2 plus for yes btts
Trust me its brutal and stressful if you know have a particular game in mind and think randomly picking one will suffice for an easy little profit  |
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SS
Don't follow soccer at all myself but what you're suggesting looks like a numbers game to me rather than any personal opinion , if i was forced to play Martingale ( i'd need a gun to my head ) i'd play your 2.1 or 2.2 suggested immaterial of who's playing , wouldn't matter if it was Brazil vs Argentina or Crewe vs Exeter but in any case i'd go against the public by using negative outcomes as your criteria rather than need what every other Tom , Dick and Harry wants to happen. Unless you're playing because you want to watch tv games and want a more high profile interest then that may be different , depends what you want out of it and what your aims/goals are but have to remember this is one hell of a random sport you're dealing with here and a £512 requirement could arrive quicker than you could imagine. Biggest question you need to ask yourself is how far are you prepared to go with something that will only be a small winner when you consider what you've lost to end on that winning bet , also bearing in mind you're playing a near 100% book so whatever your personal opinion may be it's a near perfect market so there's no true value just a personal choice acting as a selection criteria. In a perfect world ( you wouldn't choose to play martingale ) this would be classed as a strategy that shouldn't be subsidizing other bets or the reverse so effectively this should be your only betting outlay , which i'd imagine would be difficult. Best of luck however you play |
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Hayden
That's exactly what you say a numbers game And I was prepared to go to £128 which was 8 games in total, £255 balance, and I've absolutely knocked it on the head and decided too after hitting the 7th match a second time and it winning still made me say feck it. If it can hit game 7 twice in such a short amount of bets it's a no goer for me. Imagine starting at £10... Stress isn't worth it at those stakes |
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Nice1 mate , good decision
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Not sure this fits in this topic but yesterday I found out that the most likely score for any football match is 1-1. This surprised me. Apparently the sample was over 291,000 games and 11% finished 1-1. That makes it a 9/1 shot on average. The problem is of course that scores depend upon the relative skills of the teams opposing each other. The other thing from the sample was that total goals odd or even is more likely to end up odd. Bet365 usually offer 39/40 for this bet.
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All I can say really is the old method will lead to massive tension and high stakes eventually. It's worth trying with a small balance but you soon see the problem you'll face.
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Brians
1-1 is a common scoreline and two evenly matched sides will play it out a lot esp in the English leagues |
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Casino you tube videos watched a few of how they card count and claim all these winnings but all are heavily edited to seem they win lots and you never see the print outs of what they have won same as the horse racing claims and all they have to do is say right this Saturday we are live but they don’t it’s edited and that’s fiddling, so I’d take them all with a pinch of salt as it’s not true it’s a good con
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I had to send a copy of passport to Malta and other details, they said it never arrived even though it was recorded and had to send it all again.
They are a well known company Name and shame please Billy - the truth should be out there on these type, when you've won fair and square. |
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Hanrik Larsson.242 GOALS IN 313 MATCHES FOR CELTIC.
 Surely there must be a martingale success story in these stats |
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So lets all fast forward our lifes video to today.Are we all sitting on a possible Martingale success story in the making involving Erling Haaland of Man city?Think about it!This could be your lucky day.And then you can all come back next year and tell us how you found the secret to riches beyond your wildest dreams.
TIP."ITS NOT THE CAR THAT WINS,ITS THE DRIVER OF THE CAR,WHEN YOU USE THE MARTINGALE SYSTEM."  |
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often wondered if there was a way using some kind of martingale system with trading or cash out.
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No staking system can ever overcome making bad value bets. End of.
Don't waste your time looking. |
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But surely the about Martingale is it can destroy you even if you place value bets - if I pay you 2.01 for a coin-toss, if you bet at level stakes you'll win long-term, if you insist on doubling up every time you lose you will eventually hit a point where your bank or my stake limit stop you playing?
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Start with a stake of 0.01 a bet and a bank of £1m - set it to auto play and check in from time to time to collect your winnings.
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You can have mathematical value in some event every gambling day that can be proven but proven value still needs time before you can guarantee anything as opposed to a one off.
If someone offered me 2.2 a coin toss for £100k i'd refuse the bet If someone offered me 2.2 a coin toss for 1,000 spins at £1k a pop i'd snap his hand off. Good luck all |
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Sorry meant 100 spins...
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Or If you are multi millionaire Rico you sit there all day watching those pennies mount up....
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That becomes a utility question about the value of 100k to you , not about the odds offered.
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Just an example Johnny to make the point that in my opinion even proven value needs time , so irrespective of what it means to an individual in this case.
Pretty sure plenty will disagree but to me doing what i perceive as the right thing would still apply. |
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ask someone if theyd risk 50 quid on the toss of a coin and most will say no
tell them they will get 100, or 120 or.. eventually everyone would risk it |
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How can you "prove value in a real life environment daily" - You only think you have value ...your results over a period of time might point towards your evaluations being correct , but as for being 100% certain ? - I'm not so sure - unless you are "cheating" or arbing ?
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Some punters getting "value" on a coin toss over multiple spins would still end up losers ..
Some punters taking odds on on a coin toss over multiple spins would still end up winners... How do you know with certainty you are a good punter or just a lucky punter ? I'm not sure you ever do with 100% certainty... |
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Surely you can prove value in (eg) a coin toss or a fair (real physical or non-fixed RNG) roulette wheel?
But equally, as Hayden says, you want to do your betting over enough tosses/spins that the chance of you seeing returns close to theoretical average becomes very large? |
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But those opportunities don't exist in real life - it's all theoretical - Where are the real life examples ? - it's all subjective , personal opinion on value.
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As johnny suggests value is only a real measure when you know everything about the events e.g. a 50/50 coin toss.
In any betting where there are any unknowns value is always a 'guesstimate' |
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I've always said that value is just a posh word for a personal opinion unless it can be proven mathematically , of course these aren't real life examples as we're all just trying to make a point aren't we.
If you're patient and wait for them to present themselves there a many proven values every week , arb's would have to be included in proven value as they are mathematically just that , there are others about but they present themselves via racecards rather than generated by an individual. |
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Hayden talking plenty of sense as usual.
My two penneth would be that staking systems have their place in gambling, but none will work long term unless your selections make a level stakes profit. When they do, certain staking systems can then increase that profit. |
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Even arbing is subjective and is not risk free ...Which side of the trade do you plays first ? What stakes ? What happens if price shifts or you get knocked back on one side of the trade ? Should you take the small no risk profit or run the side of the trade that "in your opinion" offers the most value ?
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I agree with fairweather.
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You are assuming that because your records indicate a profit ,(although you've not mentioned anything about number of bets included in your sample), that you have convinced yourself that you can spot value - How do you know that you haven't just been lucky ?
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Take all those points Johnny but think the serious arbers ( if there's any left and i've never been one of them ) play the game more cleverly than to be caught out that way , like keeping stakes attainable , checking limits first and placing bets fairly simultaneously.
Not sure there's too may left that can get on these days as you don't hear much about it these days via forums etc , never appealed to me personally as nicking 2% or so to put an a/c under scrutiny but also being confident the 2% would drag my overall performance down rather than increase has never appealed , even though it may be free money. |
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We all know the bigger the value the bigger the bet - but how do we ever know what the correct price should be ? - we just don't , we can only guess what we think is the fair price , so we can never accurately calculate the correct amount to stake.
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