Novice Hurdles/Bumpers 23/24

I think you are being very kind, it's a stayer, it was most unlikely to take off. The point I was making was that he drove the horse along to close the gap, and then just stopped, losing the ground he had made up.

But you would always have the feeling up the straight that he'd still just about get there in the end despite the stop start nature of the ride

Not a bad card at Chepstow tomorrow.

I thought that Denemethy looked a good buy at 48,000. He isn't a bumper type, and in any case he got a very negative ride behind an easy winner. I am hoping (you can do no more with this stable) that tomorrow he will be ridden similarly to his points, and run the opposition into the ground. House Of Stories ran very well on his reappearance, and assuming he doesn't bounce, he looks the one to beat in the second division. The stable badly needs a winner. Not exactly thrown in, but I have stuck with Ionian Tiogair with the extra places in the last.

The irish racing has been distinctly low grade this week. You would think it's all about how far Mirazur West wins at Fairyhouse. It appears as if JP might have four at least for the Supreme.

Worringly, Bet 365 have cut Gidleigh Park from 14/1 to 9/1 for the Ballymore and most have shunted him out for the Albert Bartlett. It appears sanity has fallen over a cliff.

Bit about God Pk on Post website but members bit

Anyone able/willing to post?

The opening is written as if they are pushing the horse into the Ballymore when he is still entered in the Albert Bartlett. So often that's what happens with a writer/paper bias. The key thing is whether the oldest schoolboy in town has actually made up his mind.

I have e mailed him and told him not to run in Ballymore

Thanks, really helpful.

Makes me wonder why I bother.

? I am not a member so cant read, I looked up his e mail address and offered my views the horse would win potato so dont run in Ballymore

Which star names are entered for the Supreme, Baring Bingham and Albert Bartlett novice hurdles plus the Triumph?

Supreme Novices’ Hurdle favourite Mystical Power and Baring Bingham market leader Ballyburn have been given multiple options at the Cheltenham Festival after more entries for jump racing’s biggest week were revealed on Tuesday.
Mystical Power displayed an impressive turn of foot to win the Grade 2 Moscow Flyer Novice Hurdle at Punchestown this month, a performance that saw bookmakers install him as the 4-1 favourite for the festival's opening contest.
However, Willie Mullins has kept his options open and put him in the Baring Bingham Novices’ Hurdle, formerly the Ballymore, a race for which he is available at 10-1.
His stablemate Ballyburn offers another poser for ante-post punters who are not taking up any non-runner no bet concessions as the Baring Bingham ante-post favourite has also received an entry for the Supreme.
Image link
Patrick Mullins, assistant to Willie Mullins, was pleased with the performance of Mystical Power, a son of the yard's Champion Hurdle heroine Annie Power, at Punchestown but thinks the Closutton camp will know more about their novice plans at Cheltenham following next week's Dublin Racing Festival.
Patrick Mullins said: "Mystical Power was very impressive at Punchestown and seems to be improving with every run, like his mother did. He would look an ideal candidate for the race.
"A lot of our other entries have multiple options and we'll know more after the Dublin Racing Festival."
The astonishing team of Mullins novices includes High Class Hero and Readin Tommy Wrong, with the pair disputing outright favouritism for the Albert Bartlett. They are both available at 8-1 but have been handed the Baring Bingham option in addition to the Albert Bartlett.
Nicky Henderson has put a team of five in the Supreme including the unbeaten second favourite Jeriko Du Reponet and Willmount. Grade 1 winners Caldwell Potter, Farren Glory and Jango Baie have been included in the 63 entries for the Supreme.
The Supreme is Jeriko Du Reponet's only festival option after Henderson decided against entering him in the Baring Bingham with Ile Atlantique, Caldwell Potter, Gidleigh Park and Slade Steel among the other 86 possible runners.
Blizzard Of Oz, Johnnywho, Lecky Watson and Shanagh Bob were put in contention among 63 entries for the Albert Bartlett.
Burdett Road could run this weekend on Trials day at Cheltenham and headlined 44 entries for the JCB Triumph Hurdle. Sir Gino, Storm Heart and Bunting were also included.
2024 Cheltenham Festival: big-race entries
Supreme Novices' Hurdle (March 12)
Total entries: 63
The key horses: Mystical Power, Jeriko Du Reponet, Ballyburn
Ante-post favourite: Mystical Power (4-1)
William Hill (NRNB): 7-2 Mystical Power, Ballyburn, 4 Jeriko Du Reponet, 10 Caldwell Potter, Farren Glory, 12 Firefox, Ile Atlantique, 16 bar
Baring Bingham Novices' Hurdle (March 13)
Total entries: 86
The key horses: Ballyburn, Readin Tommy Wrong, Ile Atlantique, Gidleigh Park
Ante-post favourite: Ballyburn (4-1)
William Hill (NRNB): 2 Ballyburn, 5 Mystical Power, 6 Readin Tommy Wrong, 8 Ile Atlantique, Gidleigh Park, 10 Caldwell Potter, Slade Steel, 12 bar
Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle (March 15)
Total entries: 63
The key horses: High Class Hero, Readin Tommy Wrong, Johnnywho
Joint-ante-post favourites: High Class Hero (7-1)
Paddy Power: 6 High Class Hero, 8 Readin Tommy Wrong, 14 Lecky Watson, Loughglynn, Captain Teague, 16 Shanagh Bob, My Trump Card, 20 bar
Triumph Hurdle (March 15)
Total entries: 44
The key horses: Burdett Road, Sir Gino, Storm Heart, Bunting
Ante-post favourite: Burdett Road (4-1)
bet365: 4 Burdett Road, 6 Sir Gino, 7 Storm Heart, 9 Bunting, 14 Salvator Mundi, Kargese, Salver, Nurburgring, 16 bar

Sorry Deptford if I got it wrong, but I aassumed from the emoji you weren't being serious.

What will Willie Mullins do with his 29 Baring Bingham entries? Talking points from the Cheltenham Festival novice hurdles

Sky Bet Supreme Novices' Hurdle
Henderson avoiding multiple entries
From his first 35 runners in the Supreme only Flown in 1992 finished in the number one spot for Nicky Henderson, despite any number of near-misses. That record has been improved considerably with recent victories for Altior (2016), Shishkin (2020) and Constitution Hill (2022), and Seven Barrows is once again strongly represented thanks to Jeriko Du Reponet, Jango Baie, Southoftheborder and Willmount.
Henderson has been very targeted with his entries, with Jango Baie (also in the Baring Bingham) and Jingko Blue (Baring Bingham and Albert Bartlett) his only potential runners with a choice of engagements.
Willmount: 12-1 for the Supreme Novices' Hurdle at the 2024 Cheltenham Festival
Willmount: sole Grade 1 entry at Cheltenham is in the Supreme
Credit: Edward Whitaker (racingpost.com/photos)
Interestingly, Willmount only has the two-mile option after cutting out quickly when fancied in the Challow on soft ground.
Familiar names from the Flat looking to make an impact over hurdles
Reach For The Moon might have left some punters scarred after going from one-time royal Derby hope to beating a total of three horses following a gelding operation in his last two starts on the Flat for John and Thady Gosden.
Now representing the Queen and Sir Chips Keswick, and trained by Jamie Snowden, Reach For The Moon is one of a number on the list yet to jump a hurdle in public.
Willie Mullins has given an entry to the beautifully bred Gaucher – by Frankel out of Prix Vermeille winner Left Hand – who, like his Ebor-winning stablemate and fellow Supreme contender Absurde, raced in the Goldikova silks of Alain and Gerard Wertheimer.
There is even a Group 1 winner lurking in there, thanks to 2021 Tattersalls Gold Cup hero Helvic Dream, still very much a favourite with festival-winning trainer Noel Meade.
Early tip
Jeriko Du Reponet
5-1 generally
Silk
Jeriko Du Reponet
13:30 Cheltenham
View Racecard
Jky:
Tnr: Nicky Henderson
Came with a big reputation after winning an Irish point-to-point by 11 lengths and showed that faith was not misplaced in winning comfortably on both his starts over hurdles. Nicky Henderson plotted a similar course to Supreme success with Shishkin and the best is still to come.
Harry Wilson
Baring Bingham Novices' Hurdle
Where will Mullins play his trump cards?
The sheer strength of the Willie Mullins challenge is most noticeable here, with a whopping 29 of the 86 entries – that’s 33 per cent – housed at Closutton. 
Ballyburn and Paul Townend saunter home at Punchestown
Ballyburn: favourite for the Baring Bingham off the back of a 25-length success at Leopardstown
Credit: Patrick McCann
The betting will tell you that Ballyburn is the number one after his 25-length stroll at Leopardstown over Christmas, although he is also entered in the Supreme, for which he is 7-1 in a couple of places.
Readin Tommy Wrong and Ile Atlantique, the one-two from the Grade 1 Lawlor's of Naas over this intermediate trip, also feature in single figures, as does a fourth Mullins entry, Supreme favourite Mystical Power.
One horse from the yard who punters feel is more likely to go the two-mile route is Mirazur West, a 40-1 chance for the Baring Bingham but a notable shortener for the Supreme ahead of his appearance at Fairyhouse on Wednesday.
Early tip
Gidleigh Park
10-1 Paddy Power/Betfair
Silk
Gidleigh Park
13:30 Cheltenham
View Racecard
Jky:
Tnr: Harry Fry
Unbeaten in three starts and his bumper win has been franked by the runner-up The Jukebox Man, who has won three times since and finished third in the Challow. Made what looked a good field seem ordinary under a penalty in a novice hurdle at Newbury last time, jumping fluently once the pace quickened and easily extending away from a well-regarded Paul Nicholls runner. He looks an exciting prospect and could end a long-string of Irish winners in this race.
Harry Wilson
Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle
Captain Teague backed to show stamina
Paul Nicholls was pretty confident in the wake of Captain Teague's gutsy success in the Challow he was more likely to stay at two and a half miles and head to the Baring Bingham at the festival.
The markets have been lukewarm about that prospect, with initial quotes of 14-1 now generally rounded up to 20-1.
Captain Teagueholds entries in both the Baring Bingham and the Albert Bartlett
Captain Teague holds entries in both the Baring Bingham and the Albert Bartlett at Cheltenham
Credit: Edward Whitaker
News that he has also been given an entry in the Albert Bartlett has sparked much more interest, with Unibet cutting him to 12-1 and Betfred now 14-1 for the longer race. That doesn’t mean he will definitely be stepping up in trip, although it is clear layers and punters feel this would be an easier assignment for him.
Early tip
Johnnywho
20-1 Paddy Power/Betfair
Silk
Johnnywho
14:50 Cheltenham
View Racecard
Jky:
Tnr: Jonjo O'Neill
Johnnywho was extremely impressive when winning his bumper in a canter at Taunton in March and was just as eyecatching when winning without ever coming off the bridle at Carlisle in November. He did all his best work at the finish when a close fourth in gruelling conditions in the Challow, suggesting the longer trip would suit, and his trainer Jonjo O'Neill is no stranger to success in this race, having sent out the winner in 2006 and 2007.
Harry Wilson
JCB Triumph Hurdle
Could Sir Gino form be the key to revealing Mullins’ number one?
Unusually the top two in the market – Burdett Road and Sir Gino – are trained in Britain, while the general fifth-best in most lists is Salvator Mundi, who is yet to carry the yellow and black checks of Joe and Marie Donnelly but is no bigger than 5-1 to make a winning debut for Mullins in the Grade 1 Spring Juvenile Hurdle at the Dublin Racing Festival.
He is currently behind stablemates Storm Heart and Bunting in most lists for the Triumph but clearly has been impressing the Mullins team, having joined after finishing less than two lengths behind Sir Gino in a newcomers’ race at Auteuil in March which is always closely watched by the big British and Irish buyers.
Katakana a springer for De Bromhead?
Henry de Bromhead poses at Cheltenham on October 27, 2023
Henry de Bromhead: could unleash Triumph entry Katakana at Naas
Credit: Alan Crowhurst
It would be unfair to label Henry de Bromhead's season to date as slow, although it is notable such a powerful yard has only has two horses quoted in single figures for the festival at this stage, Minella Indo in the Glenfarclas Cross-County and Envoi Allen in the Ryanair.
The Knockeen operation has such a brilliant recent record at Cheltenham, where De Bromhead has saddled 18 festival winners since 2017, that it seems unlikely at least some of his runners won't be able to show a great deal more in March.
Katakana is a best-priced 33-1 for the Triumph before making his stable debut, which could come as soon as Naas on Sunday. A winner of two of his three starts in AQPS (non-thoroughbred) bumpers for shrewd French handler Joel Boisnard, Katakana is one of only eight stable entries across the Grade 1 novice and juvenile hurdles.
Early tip
Salver
14-1 generally
Silk
Salver
13:30 Cheltenham
View Racecard
Jky:
Tnr: Gary Moore
Was impressive in the Coral Finale Juvenile Hurdle at Chepstow last month, proving far too good for his rivals when winning easily by 21 lengths from Balboa. Looking at formlines through the runner-up, who was a close second behind a horse who had previously chased home Triumph favourite Burdett Road, Salver does not look to have a lot to find with the market principals. The form of his previous win has been boosted with the second winning twice since and he should not be such a big price.
Harry Wilson

No worries mate, I will post any reply

Jan 23, 2024 -- 5:31PM, differentdrum wrote:

I think you are being very kind, it's a stayer, it was most unlikely to take off. The point I was making was that he drove the horse along to close the gap, and then just stopped, losing the ground he had made up.

Yeah I get that. But looking at the race that's what I took outve it, that he assumed once he got there he could win easily without having to be hard on the horse. I didn't hear his interview but I assume privately he was a little disappointed. Also the horse may be far from fully fit.

Why would you bring any horse back (let alone a good one) unfit on ground like that?

It's not as though it's never happened before

Maybe it will change, but given his reputation Mirazur West seems very weak.

Now that O'Moore Road should have blown the cobwebs (ran very free last time) he should be way too good for the rest today.

Great to see Gaye Legacy get her head in front at last. She is a real trier of limited speed but brings back so many memories of the Rimell family. Quite a generous price at the off.

Dire performance from Denemethy, possibly explaining why he only cost 48,000. At least he went forward, but he was effectively beaten as soon as he jumped the first. You can't lose two lengths at every hurdle. I never understand when this happens, surely trainers are diligent enough to school horses both ways? Even allowing for the jumping he has stopped much too quickly so he probably has other issues as well. I don't think it ended up being much of a race.

I have sung the praises of Ben Jones a few times, but he does seem to ride too many seconds. Quite lucky to get on the right end of two disqualifications recently. I think the winner was the best horse on the day, but I won't be shedding too many tears for a 100/1 shot who had previously shown nothing.

I think we saw enough to see why Mirazur West drifted. He shouldn't be going anywhere near Cheltenham. At the moment he isn't much more than a clumsy boat.

Ben Jones got on red instead of black today. Philip Hobbs seems to be on a roll for the first time in years.

Denemethy comfortably beat Lowry's Bar on his last point start. Quite a difference today. Interesting to see what they do with Lowry's Bar. He isn't the biggest.

Ionian Tiogair was weak in the market, and ran accordingly. She was ridden prominently over a shorter trip, but immediately a dozen lengths behind today. She never looked likely, and shouldn't have run.

Main interest tomorrow is whether White Rhino can qualify for the Pertemps Final. Not very clever that they have landed on one of the most competitive qualifiers.

I think Don Occhetti will take a step forward at some stage, but who knows when that might be. My only bet tomorrow is Belle Montrose with the extra places in the closing bumper. She has a bit of scope, and I thought she ran better than her final placing suggested on her bumper debut. She will need to have come on for that, but it doesn't look the strongest race.

Cromwell has the favourite for listed race, but is in terrible form - 28 losers in a row.

Comedy corner in the last at Gowran Park.

Belle Montrose did improve, but sadly, from a betting angle, didn't quite see her race out well enough to land the each-way. Coming so wide probably contributed to the half length difference.

Modicum of improvement from Don Occhetti, but will need a lot more than that to be be competitive. The market will no doubt be the guide.

Brides Hill only had to jump round to win a very weak race for the Grade.

White Rhino the highlight of the day for me. The perfect qualification. I have no idea why some bookmakers have kicked him out. Cheltenham should suit him far better than Huntingdon, and he is very much the one to beat in a weak looking Pertemps.

A terrible performance by both Fortunate Man and the jock at Wetherby. You have two horses to beat, and you just give them cheap lengths on a stayer? Almost like he wasn't too bothered.

I assume in-running punters would have cashed in on Ain't That A Shame. Tanked throughout, and it was a surprise he didn't win even easier. On this evidence he should have won more than three races. Stable almost certainly had the most talented horse in the novice chase, but unfortunately, Arctic Bresil can't jump, and seems to be as soft as you can get. The Galmoy Hurdle just confirmed that the Stayers division is at an all time low. The jumping was so bad you would think some of them (including the winner) hadn't seen a hurdle before.

I was saying on another thread earlier that Monkfish does seem to jump fences better than hurdles. I had the novice winner at 9/4 this morning, thought the second looked more likely at a few stages.

White Rhino might need a rating rise to get in to the final. The cut is usually mid 130s from my recollection. Looks a ready made chaser though.

7 Horses ran off a lower mark than his current rating last year. It's a very weak year, and I wouldn't think there is any doubt he will get in.

Fine, the standard must be falling.

Historic day at Sandown, but very little interest tomorrow in terms of the racing.

Most interesting runner for me is Southern Babylon in the first at Sedgefield. Looked totally unsuited by the track (jumping right) on hurdling debut, but now returns to the scene of the crime having been equally unsuited by Haydock. Has the trainer totally lost the plot?

Looking at Saturday cards, and somewhat underwhelmed. Bet Henderson is missing De Boinville. Just hope Bowen doesn't make a complete mess of Sir Gino. It's advantage Burdett Road before they start. Marie's Rock not declared for the Cleeve. Why waste the entry? They should think of putting something into the Mares' to ensure we don't get last year's farce repeated. She needs a pace to run at. Without that it's likely another white flag job. I don't want Gidleigh Park to get beat, but at the same time I need Fry to see this as a stepping stone to the Albert Bartlett. Drying ground might help in that respect. As expected Johnnywho is the only obvious opposition. Lord Of Thunder has been progressive, but Wincanton and Cheltenham are chalk and cheese.

Maries Rock is jocked up for the Grade 2 Mares race at Doncaster on Sunday.

Again they are persisting in going three miles, it seems a case of if at first you don't succeed, just carry on failing. I can't see much pace in this race, Theatre Glory is also entered, but she refused to go forward at the Festival.

As well as adding White Rhino - still can't believe the 20/1 which I can't get - I have also added Joyeuse NRNB in the Mares' Novice. She looked very promising last time in a strong race for the track, and I needed something to replace Only By Night who seems very unlikely to recover from Lingfield. Also keep looking at the Turners, but keep on concluding that the race has no angle at all. Iroko, the only interesting one, but the NRNB price makes zero appeal.

Just going back to White Rhino it would be quite an achievement for the stable to get a Festival winner two years in a row.

Lord Of Thunder out of the Gidleigh Park race. Very hard to see the favourite being beaten. Be surprised if it doesn't go off odds on. Surprised that Antrim Coast is so close to Johnnywho. Just 1/4 and I would have doubts about that form with Butch (who seems to do just enough) over a longer trip.

Had a silly bet on Fergal's with the extra places , ballymore entry and presumably kept over after last race  , seems certain to lead , jumps well and likes track . Probably outclassed but that's why its the price .

Not much of a betting day tomorrow, but ante-post interest with Sir Gino, Jeriko Du Reponet, Johnnywho, and obviously, Gidleigh Park. Had De Boinville been on Sir Gino I would have been hopeful of three wins.

Very lucky to collect anything on my only bet today, Toonagh Warrior, who jumped the second last in third, but would only have finished eighth without the casualties. Only real interest tomorrow is Inebranlable in opener at Uttoxeter. Mentioned him a few times, and the big problem has been that he can travel into a race, but the moment he comes under pressure he seems to immediately fall into a hole. So unless that issue has been fixed the jock needs to sit for as long as possible. Hopefully, Gale is the jock to do just that. The early market move (20/1-10/1) would suggest I wasn't the only one waiting on the price. Stable only 5 winners this season, a very disappointing total.   

Some decent pedigrees in the closing Fairyhouse bumper. I will be keeping an eye on Shraheen although the jockey booking hardly signals any intent.

My main take out from the day would be Lossiemouth. It's a nonsense that she isn't going for a Champion Hurdle, and nobody is even going to challenge the decision. It highlights all the bad things about racing, particularly the lack of competition. Everything about her shouts fast two-miler, but she is going to have to try a new trip, purely because it is an easier race. She looks much more likely opposition to Constitution Hill than State Man, who to my eyes always looks like a converted stayer. Lossiemouth is clearly in great form, she might not even be around next year. If she went Champion Hurdle this year she could try something else next year, the other way round doesn't make much sense.

Turning to the ante-post horses, all three won. Sir Gino was by far the best of the three. His jumping was much improved, and it was pretty much a faultless display. Now seems a question as to whether he is better than the irish, but likely it will take a good one to beat him. Jeriko Du Reponet scrambled home. I doubt if that effort is within a stone of winning an average Supreme. You have to hope that Walsh was a big negative. The horse jumped poorly for him, and he had his stick in the wrong hand down the straight. It seems Nicky will need to pull a rabbit out of the hat in March. I was disappointed with Gidleigh Park. His jumping was poor, and he only got home because he outstayed the ruuner-up. A performance tailor-made for the step up in trip you would think, but Burke comes back, and he is still chirping on about the Ballymore. Jocks? Unfortunately, Johnnywho was very disappointing and probably too slow for any race at the Festival. His initial promise seems to be fading.

The Cotswold and the Cleeve were both rag bag collections, and I don't see either having a major bearing on the Festival. Stay Away Fay hasn't been cut for the National Hunt Chase, so I assume Nicholls isn't prepared to ask Cobden to give up the ride. The horse isn't sharp enough. Hopefully, this year's Stayers will be Paisley Park's swan song. He has almost single-handedly turned racing presentation into something of a soap opera. Having had an armchair ride on Sir Gino, Bowen had the exact opposite on Jonbon. Not sure why he decided to go back to riding him Coleman-style. I thought the idea was to ride him more aggressively, not just sit still on him. He is going to need a lot of help from El Fabiolo. Some decent horses have won the Timeform Novices off topweight, including one of my favourites, Monsieur Le Cure. Ginny's Destiny is good, but not that good, and I think his new price for the Turners reflects the quality of entries this year, rather than his own level of ability.

After calling out Jefferson for a ridiculous piece of placement with Southern Babylon yesterday, what a surprise she wins the Grade 2 at Doncaster with Kerryhill. Bit cheesed as I backed him at Cheltenham. This looked a big step forward, but unfortunately, Jefferson didn't enter him at Cheltenham. Think I preferred the less girlie version of the trainer. In the same race Welcom To Cartries travelled nicely, but lacked the gears of the winner.

Argento Boy looked a nice propect in taking the Fairyhouse bumper. There was a little bit of market interest in Shraheen, but having made some progress from the rear, he didn't come close to seeing his race out.

Words fail in respect to Inebranlable. He wasn't strong in the market, and was effectively beaten after 100 yards. If I wanted the horse beat that's how I would have told the jock to ride it. Stuck out wide, no cover, and immediately ridden along. Add in the worst round of jumping it has produced, and I am not sure what was going on. The stable has had a shocking season, and with efforts like this, it is not surprising.

Was at Chelters today
To back Gidleigh Park
Watched him in the pre parade
First time i ever saw a hoss with 2 rear feet
Moving like a 80 year oap
Probably a trait
But i didnt bet him
Probably needs deep ground

Well I have had no reply from my e mail but if they run in anything but Albert they want locking up.

https://www.racingpost.com/news/reports/its-the-mares-for-lossiemouth-as-rich-ricci-confirms-no-clash-with-monster-constitution-hill-after-impressive-win-a73Nz4K3tKRj/

Amazing as it might seem, my reading of Fry's comments would be that until today he had not entertained the option of running in the Albert Bartlett. I have maintained that should have been the target from the start. Had it been everything would now be confirmed. Unfortunately, some people find it very difficult to admit to getting something wrong, so I suspect the trainer will spend the next few weeks trying to invent reasons why his original opinion was correct.

Meant to flag up one other horse, Charles Ritz. For a very inexperienced horse I thought he got an overly aggressive ride - he was held up on his previous win - and he should be winning again off his current mark.

differentdrum
Exactly my take on Lossiemouth, State Man isn't quick enough to win the Champion Hurdle and Lossiemouth looks superior on what we've seen so far this season. Waiting a year, could lame, died or anything else by then. Winning the Mares over 2 and half, does she really need the trip.

Also surprised by the Bowen on Jonbon, Jonbon needs asking at his fences and his improved form early in the season was a result of the aggressive ride he got, not from sitting on him and doing nothing.

Unfortunately, missed the start of Luck On Sunday. Anyone confirm what Fry said about Gidleigh Park going forward? I notice in the last few minutes a few bookmakers have cut Gidleigh Park for the Ballymore which would seem to indicate (as I suggested) that Fry is stubbornly sticking to his original plan even though there is no evidence to support it. One other thing to emphasise is that yesterday's race was run on the new course which is more a test of stamina, the Ballymore is run on the old course so much more a test of speed. How is that going to suit him?

Cashed out my Mares' bet on Marie's Rock ahead of today's run. I had a bigger price, but even at her best it is very unlikely she would trouble Lossiemouth assuming that one stays the trip. Add in running her over the wrong trip makes no sense, and there is always the chance she will be continually found out with no pace to run at.

IN HELL ?
we no what statesmen would have done to those rivals ytesterday minus LOSSIMOUTH,and if he had presumably you,d be on here today saying statesmen will go well in ch hurdle ?
or am i missing something ?,
lossy one run this yr so your basing his ch hu chances on beating horses state man would have chewed up and spat out the back

in hell might have their own answers, but even though State Man would have won yesterday I doubt very much that he would have won in similar style. He continually just grinds out wins. She looks to have (far) more gears. Constitution Hill has already turned away State Man, but Lossiemouth, in receipt of weight, might be a different proposition.

^ agree. Looks a natural at 2M.

Managed to watch the opening of Luck On Sunday.

Fry was completely non-committal as to Gidleigh Park's target - at least to camera - which makes the shortening for the Ballymore look very strange. Where is that money coming from and what has prompted it?

If you drew up a list of pluses and minuses for running in the Ballymore, I am not sure what you would put in the plus column.

your not seriously trying to tell us STATE man wouldnt look a natural 2 miler against love envoi and fleet st, REALLY ?

Jan 28, 2024 -- 1:15PM, 1st time poster wrote:

your not seriously trying to tell us STATE man wouldnt look a natural 2 miler against love envoi and fleet st, REALLY ?

If that's aimed at me that's not what I said. Only talking about Lossiemouth who looks a natural at 2M. Of course like loads before the horse could go up to 2M4F, but with that speed is there any point at this stage?

Running the juvenile race yesterday side by side, the juveniles were a long way in front for most of the way, Lossie and co closed down from the third last to the last but Sir Gino opens up again from the last to the line. He was the most impressive of the 2 mile hurdlers IMO and once again Lossiemouth finds herself in a race run at a steady pace.

I think she will run in the mares and I think she has a big enough question to answer on stamina against the likes of Gala Marceau who will relish the trip, yesterday's run just shortens her price up nicely.

That is to lay her for the Mares.

On a side note, just think of the fun and games we'll get next year with Henderson trying to find enough 2 mile graded races for CH and SG to run in separately.

In hindsight it would have been a few pounds better to have cashed out Marie's Rock after today's race. She ended up prevailing in a sprint that had very little to do with stamina. I think she is well below what she was a couple of year's ago.

I see after yesterday's farce Ben Clarke managed to find another bookmakers special to beat a heavily backed favourite at Fontwell.

Not quite as obvious as Lossiemouth, but Embassy Gardens should be going Brown Advisory. The National Hunt Chase should be a race for horses who are not competitive enough for the shorter race. I think he would have every chance. He has always looked the part, and now seems be getting his act together.

Can't see why Steedman was getting so excited about the idea of Mullins running horses in the perceived 'easier races'. That's what Mullins and Walsh have always done. What might actually suit the horse doesn't seem to matter too much. Competition is too often the victim of the policy.

Marie's Rock was the one horse in that race I wouldn't have bet, if I did have a bet which I didn't). Surprised that Gavin Sheehan was happy to see it turn into a burn up up the straight.

This upcoming bumper in the last at Naas looks tasty
mullins v elliott

new champion bumper fav after that?

Jasmin De Vaux was on my original list of pointers, but I much prefer horses with a bit of size and substance. He looks very sparely made. As a future prospect I would prefer yesterday's winner. Bookmakers must love races like that. Just gives them an excuse to smash the price up everytime something similar happens. They can't all win the Festival Bumper. As I have said before Let It Rain's form is in a different league, but bookmakers are actually kicking that one out, presumably because Skelton has already got his white flag out.

gav and snowedrop over though didnt want to go from front set it up/give maria,s the good pace target on back she needs but they must have known if gav didnt one of hendo,s others  would tweed skirt as it happens, wear it well came closer that i ever thought possible in out sprinting maria,s,but at least they no the 2nd gets trip now

Interesting match up between Built By Ballymore and Champagne Admiral at Punchestown. Built By Ballymore bolted up when landing a touch at Limerick and Champagne Admiral seemed to improve when nicking a handicap last time. I think Built By Ballymore probably has the most potential, but who knows what will happen now he is reunited with Slevin. Will it be another Lark In The Mornin', or Fastorslow? Earlier on the card Bioluminescence should get off the mark over hurdles. Will be keeping an eye on Village Master at Hereford. He is nicely bred , but was woeful on hurdling debut. It's the sort of material the trainer should be doing so much better with.

Really interested in Dont tell Su in the second at Hereford , any amount of promise in its first run at Chepstow , with the errors ironed out and the same degree of enthusiasm I saw it as a real Albert Bartlett prospect . Second run it looked like it had been to reform school and was sulking . So interesting to see what today brings .

For me I can't see how State Man's will beat CH, maybe change the tactics and try make it real slog of a race going down the hill. But State's Man isn't going to come from behind CH and out sprint it.

Lossiemouth getting half a stone would have a better chance than State Man imo

I'd like them to try Impaire Et Passe from the front this weekend and not sit behind State Man as that will just be the same result again

I get the impression that Mullins has a real soft spot for State Man, and that is part of the reason for deflecting Lossiemouth elsewhere. He wouldn't want to admit that Lossiemouth could just be better.

thats not really the ? is it
the ? is can you see state man beating lossimouth,if as is obvious the answers is yes and they think lossimouth has a far better chance in  the other race its a no brainer

Amazing over the years how many times I've thought that some of the Leopardstown maidens at Christmas didn't look up to scratch, yet time and again plenty of winners come out of them, even ones like the last winner there at Punchestown.

Mystery how Below The Radar drifted quite so much. It was fair enough during the race as his jumping never matched the second but before the race they couldn't give him away. Double coming from Don't Tell Su?

Even if Lossie is better than State Man, I can't see either of them beating CH if he is on his best form and there is no other race for State Man while there is for Lossie. It is exactly this sort of situation where one trainer has 4 or 5 contenders but is reluctant to run them all that diminishes the quality of the championship races. The biggest loser will be the owner of the second in the Mares Hurdle assuming that Lossie wins it.

I am trying to argue that horses should run in races that suit them best, rather than the perceived easiest option. Mullins is just hoping to get away with the longer trip. I think Lossiemouth would beat State Man, but more importantly, provide some genuine opposition to Constitution Hill. That would be the best outcome for racing. All sorts of excuses have been trotted out as why she can't take on Constitution Hill, including comparison with Vauban. Vauban didn't look good enough from the start of his second campaign, and of course he didn't get any weight advantage. As regards what I said earlier it is relevant to the choice. Imagine she went to the Champion Hurdle and beat State Man, questions would inevitably be asked why Mullins didn't realise she was his number one hope.

But even if he is pretty sure she is superior to State Man, why get her beaten by CH when she should win the mares allowing State Man to get second in the CH? A trainer's responsibility is to advise his owner as to his advised course of action and so long as the owner does not object, to carry out the plan. Rich Ricci seemed happy to get a Mares win rather than a CH second even though he gets less prize money and he pays the bills. Keeping punters informed is important but running a horse just to please punters is never a good idea.

what doe,s it matter if she beats state man but like state man loses to  CH, theres an easier race for lossimouth but no chel alt for state man

Personally, I think you are both getting carried away with the hype surrounding Constitution Hill. I don't think it's any certainty at all that he would beat Lossiemouth. Other than State Man, he has beaten second division opposition easily. The weight allowance would be a very useful advantage. The cheerleaders want stars to shout about so Constitution Hill has been elevated to a level beyond his actual achievements. He looked vulnerable when upped in trip, and Lossiemouth's connections might want to take note of that Aintree performance. In a wider sense, but probably the most important, the sport is the loser if competition dies. I am a fan of the sport, I am not prepared to come on making a case for owners to lessen the value of the sport.

Likely she will never be as good as she looks, but at least Bioluminescence got the job done today. Built By Ballymore won easily again, despite the jock looking all over the place throughout. Thankfully, the horse had a ton in hand, and it looked like he took charge of the situation himself. Champagne Admiral changed tactics, and ran a shocker.

At Hereford, Village Master looked as if he didn't want to know. A million miles from the promise in points. Black Hawk Eagle looks one to keep on the right side, winning easily despite an over confident ride. Bungle the last, and it's another Nemean Lion job. Ground doesn't seem an issue, just a question as to whether he could step up into a better race. You needed to be 133 to get into the County last season, and I guess he will be around 125.

Nicely put, Sage.

Sometimes I wonder if this is a punters forum or an owners forum? We all know the reasons why they are ducking the Champion Hurdle, and we all know who pays the bills - that doesn't need explaining - but for a watcher of the sport to actually support the idea of less competition is crazy. You must actually like being bored? I am taking a little guess, but I don't think money is a consideration for Ricci.   

Not the usual quality at Chepstow tomorrow, it's a pretty poor day all round. It looks a weak bumper with the front two looking stayers. My preference would be for the very unimaginatively named Bobby's Nelson. Another from the Hobbs/White 'placed in points' collection, his form has had a couple of boosts.

Just on the subject of Hobbs. Ben Jones is now pushing towards that 50 that I suggested he should be aiming towards, and that's even with the mystery disappearance in December. He is clearly benefitting from the support from Pauling, the kind of support he has never really got from Hobbs.

dd,

Don't you think that Lossie could be being made to look better than she is, she keeps winning what turn out to be sprints and the time she had to get down and dirty, allbeit with a bad run through, she couldn't get back to Gala Marceau who's a stayer, I think a thorough test at 2 miles against CH would not be of any help to her and the step up in trip to the Mares would see her vulnerable too. I'd be more worried from a Constitution Hill point of view of his own stablemate Sir Gino who's race was run way quicker for the majority and who finished off even better than Lossie.

Fun and games splitting CH and SG up next year.

I would just put a line through that Leopardstown race. I think she did remarkably well to even get back in the race. She is miles better than the winner. As for the Champion Hurdle if I was the opposition I would be doing my beast to make sure there is no pace. Why would you want to set the race up for the favourite? Sir Gino has looked good so far, but until he races against the irish, anything else is jumping the gun.

But we are also allowed to voice our opinion.
Even if it does not concur to yours.

its a toughie
listen to trainers/owners or punters with antepost bets on horses in particular races
like i say a toughie
the best trainer in the business not knowing which of his has best chance of winning ch hu

Did anyone say you couldn't?

Maybe you do actually think less competitive racing is a good idea - that is what you arguing for - but there is nothing worse than people who just play devil's advocate for the sake of it.

Happy to hear you elaborate on why having less competitive races during the sport's biggest showcase meeting is a good thing.

Competitive racing died when they diluted the meeting.

In regards to Lossiemouth, they have made it very clear that this season they planned to go easy with her.
Next year, if she is that good, we will hopefully get the clash.

It is quite possible that Lossiemouth would win the CH by 10 lengths proving you right dd but the decision has to be taken by those closest to the horse and that is the owner and the trainer. I would love to see the Championship races run at different meetings giving some horses the option of running in more than one but that is not the case at the moment when Cheltenham dominates. It is of course quite possible that a Constitution Hill/Lossiemouth clash could happen at Aintree or Punchestown but I doubt it. One thing is for sure, if one of them got a beating at Cheltenham, they would not run again this season.

Segal putting up today's winner Billericay Dickie & Jango Baie for Ballymore tonight.

Amazing, a horse who for 90% of the race didn't look as if he was going to win a shocking maiden hurdle. I can only assume he has joined the Paul Kealy dart throwing club. If the horse didn't have those connections he wouldn't look value at 66/1.

Talk of the French Champion Hurdle for Lossiemouth ??

Who's doing that? Is this the number one stable, or confusion corner? Everything about her shouts two-miler and someone thinks it's a good idea to go three miles plus on likely testing ground. All this nonsense would be avoided if you just ran horses over their best distance. It's an idea that plenty of the time Mullins just seems to ignore. Yesterday, he made comments about the winners needing a trip. How is it he can have an instant idea on those lesser horses, but he is still farting about with Ballyburn even though it should have been obvious from last season that this one was a stayer? You can only draw the conclusion he actually enjoys creating confusion and chaos in the markets. It's his messing around that has done more than anything to kill ante-post.

French Champion Hurdle is 3 miles plus, she doesn't seem to screaming out for the trip.

I'm of the opinion if you win a Champion Hurdle trial by 10L then you should be in the Champion Hurdle.

If State Man does get turned over this weekend, do you think he will change his mind with Lossiemouth?

I don't think so. It would make it look as if the original decision was all about State Man, and nothing much to do with Lossiemouth's best interests. I think trainers in general are a pretty stubborn bunch, and once they see things in a certain direction they find it very hard to change track.

I think a huge percentage of the racing public would want to see her in the Champion Hurdle, but sadly, they don't have any clout. If 99 out of 100 people said run in the Champion Hurdle, Mullins wouldn't take any notice. Racing Post site has asked the question, and it feels like they have dragged someone out to decry Lossiemouth just to play devil's advocate. Not very convincing.

anyone reading this thread would think it would be rude not a cheeky trixie/treble on
ballyburn /supreme
stateman /ch hu
lossimouth/mares race
just in case and enjoy the meltdown

Reality check in the RP today. Lossiemouth has not achieved a high enough rating to have PLACED in any of the last 10 Champion Hurdles. None of the horses she beat last Saturday are within 15lb of State Man, never mind Constitution Hill. She is a 5yo mare and as such she has a mountain of stats to overcome to win a CH. Not saying she can't but only 2 5yo geldings have done it in more than 20 years and no 5yo mares have even tried so far as I recall. Honeysuckle was 7 and 8, Annie Power 8 when they won.

Lossiemouth will need more than the mares allowance to trouble Constitution Hill.
Out of her depth with him.

Bottom line was that she won a sprint against a horse that wanted further....I agree her only chance would be for State Man to set a crawl and for her to do CH for a bit of toe "perhaps"in a 2 furlong burn up but if that looked to be happening I would fully expect Nico to send CH on and make his own running, we've seen what CH can do off of a through gallop in his Supreme. Let's see how Lossiemouth copes with an eyeballs out 2 mile test.

"farting about".
Willie Mullins?

The man is a genius and simply doesn;t deserve such crudity.

If you want sycophantic cheerleading stuff count me out. The last few days on here has been akin to having a chat with Rich Ricci. As if that guy needs a platform. I really don't need that, but if that's what people want the floor is yours.

Facile Vega entered in the 2M5F novice at the weekend as well as the Arkle. Interesting if connections go down that road.

Vega sticks to 2 miles.

Interesting Irish point winner running for Nicholls in NH Flat race at Sandown on Saturday.

Fire Flyer was very short but still quite impressive after a wayward start. Headed for the EBF final apparently.

DD
This is a HORSE RACING forum… not solely a punter’s forum.

We enjoy this thread for other reasons though , lets keep it that way .

It was an excellent thread

Good piece by Keith Melrose and following on from the Kevin Blake about taking the Mares Hurdle out of Cheltenham and putting it elsewhere in the calendar. It's got more mares racing put it shouldn't stop competition in the Championship races which it has done now for a number of years at Cheltenham.

think mullins needs to pack it in,just trolling DIFFERENT today over ballyburn for supreme and stateman for ch hurdle and lossimouth for mares

The chat this weekend on most of the topics on this forum is why it is so dead these days.

This topic, though, has been a very enjoyable read.
Great input and debate.

This weekend has seen a lot of criticism aimed at Mullins as always.

He has an embarrassment of riches, as he has had for a while, but as always he is happy to run them at this meeting.

Unlike most Grade 1s in the early season, his horses run on their merit here as he sorts out his pecking order for March.

Kargese was much improved yesterday in winning the Spring juvenile. She was far too keen on debutwhen only just touched off in a Grade 2. She won nicely yesterday if a little too exuberant and can make her presence felt with her allowance at Cheltenham.

Marine Nationale was very flat. Never travelled or jumped at any stage. Hopefully something will come to light over the next day or two. It leaves the Arkle very wide open.

Galopin Des Champs won well again and will obviously be hard to beat on the Friday. Supporters of FastorSlow should take plenty of encouragement from that run.

The NH flat winner looked very good. The Champion Bumper is not a race I agree with or look at.

Today Fact To File looked top class in a match. The runner up is a decent horse who was made to look very ordinary. I like the winner a lot.

Ballyburn proved Mullins knows what trip to send his best novice over once again. And will take all the beating in the opener at Prestbury Park.

El Fabiolo has never and will never look pretty over a fence but his ability and engine sets him apart from nearly every other horse in training.

Another enjoyable DRF.

Jeroboam Machin injured

Looks like they're swerving Cheltenham with Impaire Et Passe

A Dream To Share finished for the season. Hurdling next season.

Best of luck DD with Ballyburn in the SA.

Jan 30, 2024 -- 5:16AM, MJK wrote:

Talk of the French Champion Hurdle for Lossiemouth ??

They seem to have confirmed this intention today