There is currently 1 person viewing this thread.
15 Oct 23
11:25
Joined:
Date Joined:
05 Oct 11
Last season I followed the O'Neill stable through the season, but it became increasingly frustrating as you can only say the same thing so many times - jock showing zero improvement, many horses massively under achieving relative to their price tags would sum it up. Amazingly, owners have stocked up again, but surely that trend can't keep continuing if results don't improve?
The original intention was to pick a new stable, but change of plan to look at the more significant/interesting novice hurdles/bumpers.
Today's 2.10 at Ffos Las seemed a good place to start.
Captain Teague duly landed the odds for Nicholls, and although he displayed a good attitude he looked more stamina than speed. Interesting to see if the trainer still targets the Challow/Ballymore as is his want. He certainly didn't dominate the two days as he has done in the past.
Not sure what Wrappedupinmay has achieved in three starts. The horse who would have finished second in his point looked a slow boat at Hexham yesterday, and he himself looked slow when a disappointing favourite on quicker ground at Sandown. He has been weak in the market. Support Act's form looks stronger, and he has been backed accordingly. He is by a sire that I flagged up over a year ago, and is the best prospect in a small yard. Drying ground would probably help his cause. I would like to see the jock it simple as he did in his bumper. Mt Fugi Park is a good looking sort (from the family of Royal Athlete) who was purchased for 290,000 after winning his only point. He was momentarily outpaced before staying on strongly. The second has done little for the form. A Walk In The Park/Presenting cross doesn't shout soft ground.
Outside of the three the rest are running for the bookmakers.
Ground could be key with Wrappedupinmay looking to want soft, and the other two a quicker surface. I am hoping the ground dries out enough for Support Act to justify the market support, but assuming the three run, it should be an informative race.
The original intention was to pick a new stable, but change of plan to look at the more significant/interesting novice hurdles/bumpers.
Today's 2.10 at Ffos Las seemed a good place to start.
Captain Teague duly landed the odds for Nicholls, and although he displayed a good attitude he looked more stamina than speed. Interesting to see if the trainer still targets the Challow/Ballymore as is his want. He certainly didn't dominate the two days as he has done in the past.
Not sure what Wrappedupinmay has achieved in three starts. The horse who would have finished second in his point looked a slow boat at Hexham yesterday, and he himself looked slow when a disappointing favourite on quicker ground at Sandown. He has been weak in the market. Support Act's form looks stronger, and he has been backed accordingly. He is by a sire that I flagged up over a year ago, and is the best prospect in a small yard. Drying ground would probably help his cause. I would like to see the jock it simple as he did in his bumper. Mt Fugi Park is a good looking sort (from the family of Royal Athlete) who was purchased for 290,000 after winning his only point. He was momentarily outpaced before staying on strongly. The second has done little for the form. A Walk In The Park/Presenting cross doesn't shout soft ground.
Outside of the three the rest are running for the bookmakers.
Ground could be key with Wrappedupinmay looking to want soft, and the other two a quicker surface. I am hoping the ground dries out enough for Support Act to justify the market support, but assuming the three run, it should be an informative race.
sort by:
Show
per page
Replies: 764
|
By:
Very disappointing, Support Act taken out. At least it confirms they think something of the horse not to waste a run.
|
|
By:
Nice way to start. I doubt there will be many better lookers than that winner all season.
It's a very promising start as there is a good chance he will be better on better ground. He got away with being held up in that small field, but he looks a strong galloper who would be better suited by being allowed to go forward. Nicholls horse appeared to travel better, but at the line was well beaten. Winner looks a potential Albert Bartlett horse unless they mess up. Put in at 25/1 which seems fair enough. |
|
By:
should be interesting thread.
ironic you followed o'neill last season and he as the first winner. no surprise Secret Plan was a bit of a eyecatcher, but the Evan Williams yard is a law unto themselves, as usual the useless Sky Sports Racing failed to show a Head-on so you guessing what happened behind the front two. Good luck.. |
|
By:
Thanks, I would have liked to have switched my bet from Support Act to the winner, but not to be. Not enough trust in the combination.
Bit confused by the trainer saying that he wouldn't run on anything quicker than today's ground. He won his point on good, today was a drying good to soft (Anyharminasking isn't a soft ground horse and he ran well), and he doesn't have an obvious soft ground action. So immediately you are limiting your opportunities if we get a dry spring. It's almost as if these days he is running scared of the Festivals. |
|
By:
Could be a good thread if Drum doesn't mind some alternative views being posted?
Agree with you on that one KIW. A 2m3f/2m4f Handicap Hurdle next time out at say a Ludlow or a Taunton and it will be a case of all aboard! |
|
By:
Any posts welcome as long as they have something to do with the thread title. It would be pretty dull if I was the only person posting.
Obviously, I am going to try and be selective in the races I pick, but if someone spots something else by all means flag it up. |
|
By:
Do you have a list of horses that you are looking out for at the start of the season?
|
|
By:
Nothing written down so I bumped up the old thread to see if there was anything on that. I did give today's winner a little mention on page 9.
Ballyburn, Gidleigh Park, Johnny Who and No Time To Wait would be four I am interested in, but not really dark one's. My only two ante-post Cheltenham bets at this stage are Gaelic Warrior (Stayers) and Old Ground (Mare's Novice). Obviously, stamina might be a question mark for the first named. I do draw up quite a long list of Irish Pointers and could put those up if anyone is interested. Perhaps the one's where I know the trainer? |
|
By:
Trainer form can be a minefield. As soon as you latch on a trainer is out of form again, and you are force fed so much misleading information from the media who are constantly obliged to accentuate the positive. The other day someone said that Fry was in form, but he has hardly had any runners, and it's a stable that is usually very well found in the market.
All that said it might be worth keeping an eye on the Coltherd runners over the next few days. He had a couple of novices out run their odds at Chepstow, and followed that up with two winners, and two seconds at Hexham. Here's a list of those pointers starting with those I might have an idea where they have gone to, not always easy as the likes of Mullins, De Bromhead, and McManus all seem to often go down the private sale route. It isn't an exhaustive list, just those who caught my eye on performance and/or pedigree. I have included a few lesser one's by Affinisea. They came good towards the end of the season which seems to imply that better ground suits the progeny. FLASH IN THE PARK (350,000 Pauling) BOSTON TOWN (200,000 Elliott) DENEMETHY (48,000 O'Brien) WELCOME TO CARTRIES (Nicholls) WINGMEN (250,000 Elliott) LEADER IN THE PARK (250,000 Pauling) UNDENIABLE ALIBI (Elliott) BALLYMACKIE (160,000 Morgan) MOSSY FEN PARK (200,000 De Bromhead) BENEFICIALLY YOURS (80,000 McCain) BREAK MY SOUL (290,000 Henderson) JERIKO DU REPONET (Henderson) JASETTE D'IRLANDE (150,000 Elliott) JALON D'OUDAIRIES (420,000 Elliott) JASMIN BELLEVUE (110,000 Henderson) ROMEO COOLIO (420,000 Elliott) SIXMILEBRIDGE (100,000 Pauling) D B COOPER (225,000 Elliott) PRENDS GARDE A TOI (155,000 Elliott) CAHERTY (95,000 McConnell) JASMIN DE VAUX (Crawford) SLIEVE CARRAN (Foley) OAK GROVE (250,000 O'Brien) TOSS OF A COIN (150,000 Nicholls) QUALIMITA (500,000 Elliott) SPORTINTHEPARK (170,000 Meade) HISTRIONIC (450,000 Nicholls) CAPTAIN BELLAMY (Nicholls) I SEE THE SEA (160,000 Hobbs) RACEVIEW ROAD (Quinn) Elliott the biggest recipient again. Pressure on Pauling. The big money purchases didn't work out for Mulholland and Scudamore. Interesting to see how many even get close to making that sort of money back. Jonjo had a couple of other 200,000+ purchases not on my list in BILL JOYCE and ROADLESSTRAVELLED. And the ones I don't have details of. If anyone knows their whereabouts please flag them up. Of course some may have remained pointing to get a win. KILLANEY KING * WHAT A WALK SAINTE BAOL * TRUCKERS CRUISING NO FLIES ON HIM * WOLF WALKER IAMAGETAWAY BANPRIONSA * INCOGNITO FATAL * MALFOY MANOR I PLAY COUNTY * BALLYBRITTAS JOYSTICK PRACTICE RUN * SPRINGT DE LA MARE * DREAM SHADOW * LA HIGUERA ACLASS FLAUBERT * VILLAGE MASTER (65,000) GLENS SENSATION * * Winners Plenty of these by Walk In The Park who had a very lucrative season. |
|
By:
Good start alright, but some of these high money purchases are more oil paintings than racing machines.
|
|
By:
Possibly unbeaten bumper winners from O'Neill/Skelton/Nichols/Henderson
Land Genie Johnnywho Coco Mademoiselle Cherie D'Am Inthewaterside Farnoge Thames Water Marvellous Mick Tarras Wood The Carpenter East India Express Mistress Emma Southoftheborder Don't know how good the bumpers were, or if they are still in training/alive.. |
|
By:
Johnny Who was entered in the Persian War. If the reporters had any idea they might have asked the trainer why he didn't take up the entry.
The five of Nicholls are all expected to go novice hurdling. No mention of Mistress Emma, but The Carpenter novice chasing, and the other two novice hurdling. There is a stable tour for Skelton (including those two) on ATR. Bet365 have now gone 33/1 Mt Fugi Park for the Albert Bartlett which would be fine for most trainers, but listening to O'Neill you couldn't be at all confident about getting a run for your money. Just to correct myself it's three Cheltenham bets - I had forgotton about Corach Rambler. |
|
By:
Had a look at any of the races today, Drum? There's one in the 2.25 at Carlise that interests me. MAKING HEADWAY. There's a bit of strength to the 2 points he ran in. The winner of the first one (Fell when in 3rd) is now with Willie Mullins and the 4th (Supremely West) in the one he won, runs in the following race on the crad and won 3 NH Flat races on the spin. That one didn't jump that well on his hurdling debut but still ran a fair race. I think this stiff track and deep going will really suit my selection and the stable are in flying form. The favourite doesn't look unbeatable so happy to take it on. Recorded faces a very different test here but it will be interesting to see how the Nicky Richards horse gets on going straight over hurdles.
1pt Win @ 5/2 Gen Making Headway. |
|
By:
*card
|
|
By:
Half brother to Constitution Hill runs in the following race on the card. The old cliché, if he's as half as good as his brother.
 |
|
By:
Not in any depth. Other than the stable clocking up three winners in a row you would think it should go well. Doesn't look a particularly strong race.
My only bet was Western Zephyr each-way. Halved in price, but probably went a bit too quick, leaving the winner and second to pick up the pieces. |
|
By:
Not at all surprised to see the money come for it.
|
|
By:
They abandoned the chasing project pretty quickly with Nells Son last season. He looks a better jumper now and he should pick up a nice prize over fences at one of the Northern courses this season.
|
|
By:
One slight mistake but never a moments doubt there. A pleasing result.
|
|
By:
Well done. Always looked the winner, and the second was flattered to finish so close. In all likelihood a weak race, but might be able to nick another under a penalty. No problem with the ground.
|
|
By:
Thanks Drum. Yeah, should able to pick up another one of these. It will probably be all about chasing next season for this guy.
|
|
By:
Land Genie shaped as if he wants another half mile, but at this stage is no great shakes.
Brighterdaysahead might be. She duly landed the odds at Thurles. Very surprising if she isn't confined to left handed tracks, at least in the near future. |
|
By:
Think Gaelic Warrior is going chasing this season DD.
|
|
By:
Great thread BTW
|
|
By:
Thanks, another kick in the teeth when I could least do with one.
Other than to spite ante-post backers I can't see any good reason to go the chasing route. The Stayers was wide open, hence the fact he had been backed down from 16/1 to 7/2 favourite. Why no mention of this chasing career until now? He must have seen that it was favourite for the Stayers, but hey don't tell anyone, just allow the bookies a bit more free money. Just pathetic from Mullins and Ricci. Yesterday, I could have cashed out a nice profit. What next, Old Ground out for the season? In other news after one poor run Encanto Bruno has been switched from O'Connell to Cromwell. That must be a real kick in the teeth. He wants better ground. Cromwell also revealed as the trainer of SPRINGT DE LA MARE. Unsure of the owner, but it wouldn't be too much of a surprise if it was JP. |
|
By:
Could be one of those though that doesn't take to the fences and reverts back to hurdles so you might still have hope. I only know about the chasing thing as a friend of mine visits stables as part of his job and asked one of the lads in Mullins' what novice chaser he was most looking forward to this season and he said Gaelic Warrior. Only saw this thread for the first time today so would've posted earlier otherwise.
|
|
By:
I can't wish the horse any ill will. He's not the one making the decisions.
The problem is, as it has always been, that the people within the sport don't give a toss about punters, or at least those who can't afford to own a horse. We can see that over the affordability check comments. The trainers are only bothered about their owners getting on, not your £20 punters. Mullins might doff his cap in grand style, and look the perfect gent, but clearly he can't see outside the bubble. If you treat the punters who have a clue with complete contempt they will eventually walk away, and you will just be left with the mugs who look at racing as nothing more than something to bet on. History doesn't matter to them. Once they do their money they will just move on to another sport. |
|
By:
Though I too had a few quid on Gaelic Warrior for the stayers I do not have any ill feeling towards connections.
For one, chasing is the game. Don't mess about over hurdles. Get them chasing. And two, if Mullins had to give out plans for every single horse every time there was a market move on one of his horses he would not have time to do his job. Aside from that, great thread. |
|
By:
This wasn't any horse, it was favourite for one of the major races at the biggest Festival of the season, and he thought he had no obligation to tell anyone that it wasn't going to run? That's the kind of stuff that should be confined to the dark ages. Anyone from the inner circle could have laid the crap out of it knowing they couldn't lose. That can't be right. I don't have an issue with picking a strange choice of race, just tell people, and explain the thinking - don't just sit on it for 6 months. The other thing is that Mullins is known for taking the easiest option. The Stayers has no star, who knows what might happen in the chasing division? Lots of greats (and this horse is miles away) never jumped a fence. The Champion Hurdle vintage was 1968-81. Many of those hardly saw a fence. The sport's poster boy at the moment is Constitution Hill. I doubt that many thought he was going to jump a fence. The press should be asking all the questions I am asking, but they won't say a dickie bird because they are only interested in keeping their jobs for life, a process which includes constant cheerleading, and lapping up a few crumbs from the great man along the way.
Anyway, I am sidetracking the thread which wasn't the idea. Thanks for the last bit. |
|
By:
I can't do links but if you go to Irishracing.com & look for this
horse,there's a quote section.Might interest you,if you haven't already seen it.(After his last win @ Punchestown. GL |
|
By:
Stable form is a part of the puzzle at this time of year. Young horses tend to be trained as a group in bigger yards so several will come to peak fitness at the same time. Once they have won their maidens, only the best ones will run up a sequence or win in better class so that is why the yard appears to be going out of form. I have a copy of the Nicholls yearbook so I can pass on his comments about novices. Captain Teague has a very encouraging write up but he was the obvious one after his bumper runs. Alan King has just produced 2 novice hurdle winners and could have a couple more shortly.
|
|
By:
Farnoge in the 2-15 NA looks the part, 2nd behind Better days Ahead in a point race then winning a Bumper beating Hasthing who went on to be beat 1 length in the Aintree Bumper.
|
|
By:
The colour change for Farnoge is not significant as one of the owners is the same and they also own Complete Unknown. Farnoge made £125,000 when last sold in March 22 and the Nicholls comments are "very promising individual whom I've have been in no rush with" By Camelot so not a jumping pedigree for heavy ground so I would rather watch than back odds on. Potential to be top class though.
|
|
By:
penzance - is it this quote?
https://www.racingtv.com/news/gaelic-warrior-takes-three-miles-in-his-stride-for-emphatic-success 'HE LOOKS TO HAVE STAYERS' HURDLE WRITTEN ALL OVER HIM' Got to be one of the bum steers of all time. What has changed since then, particularly as the horse is only 5, so bags of time to go over fences? Going back to this topic I think it's trainer attitude/tactics that can be a huge issue for punters. It looks as if Skelton is not bothered about winning with pretty much anything first time. If they win they are just getting away with it. Who knows which one's they will be? Most of the rides are not punter friendly. The Lavelle stable have now gone down the same route since she employed hold-up jock, Tom Bellamy. Don't think she has produced a decent horse since he took over. Don't these people remember M C Pipe? Get the horses fit to win, and make the most of it, no mucking around on a jolly at the rear. You are on a hiding to nothing if the horse jumps badly, but if a horse jumps well why not make the most of it on the front end, instead of continually taking a pull? |
|
By:
Farnoge did well in the end after a strong challenge by the second. The Tizzard horse Hour Star was the one to take out of it.
|
|
By:
... Yes it looked like the more experienced horse was coming to win it, but Farnoge pulled out a bit more on the testing ground ( 37 seconds below standard ), jumped well enough also.
|
|
By:
Farnoge jumped very well, but probably didn't beat much at all. Better judged when he goes up in trip. I would be surprised if that isn't next start.
|
|
By:
It's not a great race, but I will be keeping on eye on Southern Babylon at Sedgefield tomorrow, just as much for the trainer as the horse. Jefferson has averaged 5/6 winners a season over the last 5 years which is pretty woeful compared to what went before. This is a trainer switch by a relatively big owner. Not a chance you would think to be thrown away. Long time off the track, but three horses out of that small field have since shown ability under rules. Not an obvious soft ground action so ground might be a negative. Presumably, McLernon an owner booking. He was very good on Guetepan Collonges the other day.
|
|
By:
Plenty of promise, but I can't seem to buy a winner at the moment. Hard to believe he wouldn't have won over a bit further, but virtually impossible to pull 5 lengths back unless the winner stops to a walk. Smashed up very late 11/1-15/2 which seems to be the way of the world these days. There was a time when the market move came when the prices went up, but so many of those now appear to be false gambles. So next time up in trip, and on a right handed track, but in a similar race it's inevitable that the price will be (much) shorter.
|