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onlooker
21 Jul 23 13:16
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Date Joined: 18 Feb 03
| Topic/replies: 40,610 | Blogger: onlooker's blog
Newbury 4:45 - Rose Bowl Stakes (Listed) 2-y-olds

7/2 for the Coventry, at Royal Ascot - on the 'strength' of it's 12-length 'Demolition job' Debut Win at Ripon ... where it possibly/probably 'beat trees'.

Priced up at - 11/10 for today's race.

What Price would it be - based on it's 9th - in the Coventry?
Pause Switch to Standard View So - What about this ASADNA, then ? ....
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Report blackbarn July 21, 2023 1:20 PM BST
11/10. Cool
Report tanglefoot July 21, 2023 1:34 PM BST
Tough,best price 5/10 and then I would lay it off on betfair Laugh
Balon D’Or had fair form and I would cramp its odds as well
Report penzance July 21, 2023 1:47 PM BST
Like the Beckett horse in this,Palmar Bay.
Wore down Jasour late on LTO.That's won his next 2 including
the July Stks.
Report stewarts rise July 21, 2023 2:20 PM BST
Know you're not an advocate of the clock Onlooker but expect price is based on the time of the Ripon win rather than the trees it beat. As a 2 yo debutante ran the 6fs a second faster than the 3 yo winner Pinafore both carried 9-7, that horse rated 82 and nearly 2 secs faster than the 3 yo Lily in the jungle carried 3lb more later on. I haven't watched re runs of any of these races so don't know if the other races were run to a decent pace, but carrying same weight on debut as a 2 yo is pretty impressive.
Report leif July 21, 2023 2:46 PM BST
Hard to get away from it winning an egg and spoon race at Ripon on dayboo [albeit in a fast time etc]
The horse it beat at Ripon finished 9/9 beaten 12 L in Notts class 4 earlier this mumff
Neither a lay or back bet IMO

GL if you're sticking it or puntin it thoHappy
Report Storm Alert July 21, 2023 2:52 PM BST
Much rather be on Palmar Bay 9/1 Bet365...
Report onlooker July 21, 2023 3:03 PM BST
Interesting stewarts -

At a second faster than Pinafore (rated 82) - at 5 lengths per second - at 3.3 lbs per length = 98.5 for Asadna

At 2 seconds faster than Lily in the Jungle  - (rated 66) = 99 for ASADNA

If you - Adjusted for Weight-for-Age (against those 3-y-olds) - you could add 32 lbs ... which would take you 'off the clock'  Happy

On a very, very LOOSE Form line (the only available one) through the 20 lengths 5th Sergeant Mayer - subsequently a 7 lengths 5th - I could make ASADNA a FORM rating 108  (not adding anything for being eased down) -
But, I stress, that would be a very immature notional Early Season Rating (which are mostly merely 'a stab' - and for Anybody)

Similarly, I would have ASADNA on around 88 for the Coventry.

So - as they say ... 'You pays your money, and makes your choice' - or 'takes your chance' - as is often alternatively said.
Report stewarts rise July 21, 2023 3:23 PM BST
There is a very tentative form line between the 4th horse Valodero, which involves Sergeant Wilko and todays 2nd fav Balon Dor, which puts Asadna well clear of that rival as well.
Not my kind of price so will just watch.
Report differentdrum July 21, 2023 3:35 PM BST
Other than me tipping it up, and the dodgepot on board, it should win. It should win on the Coventry Stakes run, not the runaway debut against nothing. You wouldn't have thought the trainer would want a **** up given the switch.
Report leif July 21, 2023 4:42 PM BST
Lost a legShocked
Report hulk23 July 21, 2023 4:51 PM BST
i'll have a pint of whatever it was on that day at Ripon.  looks slow.
Report stewarts rise July 21, 2023 4:51 PM BST
Ran pretty well, not good enough.
Report leif July 21, 2023 4:53 PM BST
Has to move stable IMOMischief
Report liberator of the oppressed July 21, 2023 4:56 PM BST
Georgie must be cocking a snook.
Report differentdrum July 21, 2023 5:04 PM BST
Ran pretty well? It ran as if was running through glue, never looking like picking up at any stage. Dreadful performance.

The game is a joke. When bookmakers are cleaning up condition races then punters have no chance because the handicaps will take care of themselves. Is Hollie sponsored by the bookmakers?
Report leif July 21, 2023 5:04 PM BST
The owner has another one that left George for Haynes' yard.
It's fav for the chuckle brothers memorial  maiden at Donny.

could be another 'chuckle' for george
Report penzance July 21, 2023 5:06 PM BST
Shame Palmar Bay burst the stalls in that.
Thought that had a good shout today.
Report leif July 21, 2023 5:06 PM BST
The form is gash though DD.
beat a horse that finished 9/9 in a notts class 4.
that dayboo race is some fashion of an anomaly.
Report swiftynifty July 21, 2023 5:27 PM BST
timeform and their clocks need servicing.
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