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onlooker
21 Jul 23 13:16
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Date Joined: 18 Feb 03
| Topic/replies: 40,610 | Blogger: onlooker's blog
Newbury 4:45 - Rose Bowl Stakes (Listed) 2-y-olds

7/2 for the Coventry, at Royal Ascot - on the 'strength' of it's 12-length 'Demolition job' Debut Win at Ripon ... where it possibly/probably 'beat trees'.

Priced up at - 11/10 for today's race.

What Price would it be - based on it's 9th - in the Coventry?

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Replies: 19
By:
blackbarn
When: 21 Jul 23 13:20
11/10. Cool
By:
tanglefoot
When: 21 Jul 23 13:34
Tough,best price 5/10 and then I would lay it off on betfair Laugh
Balon D’Or had fair form and I would cramp its odds as well
By:
penzance
When: 21 Jul 23 13:47
Like the Beckett horse in this,Palmar Bay.
Wore down Jasour late on LTO.That's won his next 2 including
the July Stks.
By:
stewarts rise
When: 21 Jul 23 14:20
Know you're not an advocate of the clock Onlooker but expect price is based on the time of the Ripon win rather than the trees it beat. As a 2 yo debutante ran the 6fs a second faster than the 3 yo winner Pinafore both carried 9-7, that horse rated 82 and nearly 2 secs faster than the 3 yo Lily in the jungle carried 3lb more later on. I haven't watched re runs of any of these races so don't know if the other races were run to a decent pace, but carrying same weight on debut as a 2 yo is pretty impressive.
By:
leif
When: 21 Jul 23 14:46
Hard to get away from it winning an egg and spoon race at Ripon on dayboo [albeit in a fast time etc]
The horse it beat at Ripon finished 9/9 beaten 12 L in Notts class 4 earlier this mumff
Neither a lay or back bet IMO

GL if you're sticking it or puntin it thoHappy
By:
Storm Alert
When: 21 Jul 23 14:52
Much rather be on Palmar Bay 9/1 Bet365...
By:
onlooker
When: 21 Jul 23 15:03
Interesting stewarts -

At a second faster than Pinafore (rated 82) - at 5 lengths per second - at 3.3 lbs per length = 98.5 for Asadna

At 2 seconds faster than Lily in the Jungle  - (rated 66) = 99 for ASADNA

If you - Adjusted for Weight-for-Age (against those 3-y-olds) - you could add 32 lbs ... which would take you 'off the clock'  Happy

On a very, very LOOSE Form line (the only available one) through the 20 lengths 5th Sergeant Mayer - subsequently a 7 lengths 5th - I could make ASADNA a FORM rating 108  (not adding anything for being eased down) -
But, I stress, that would be a very immature notional Early Season Rating (which are mostly merely 'a stab' - and for Anybody)

Similarly, I would have ASADNA on around 88 for the Coventry.

So - as they say ... 'You pays your money, and makes your choice' - or 'takes your chance' - as is often alternatively said.
By:
stewarts rise
When: 21 Jul 23 15:23
There is a very tentative form line between the 4th horse Valodero, which involves Sergeant Wilko and todays 2nd fav Balon Dor, which puts Asadna well clear of that rival as well.
Not my kind of price so will just watch.
By:
differentdrum
When: 21 Jul 23 15:35
Other than me tipping it up, and the dodgepot on board, it should win. It should win on the Coventry Stakes run, not the runaway debut against nothing. You wouldn't have thought the trainer would want a **** up given the switch.
By:
leif
When: 21 Jul 23 16:42
Lost a legShocked
By:
hulk23
When: 21 Jul 23 16:51
i'll have a pint of whatever it was on that day at Ripon.  looks slow.
By:
stewarts rise
When: 21 Jul 23 16:51
Ran pretty well, not good enough.
By:
leif
When: 21 Jul 23 16:53
Has to move stable IMOMischief
By:
liberator of the oppressed
When: 21 Jul 23 16:56
Georgie must be cocking a snook.
By:
differentdrum
When: 21 Jul 23 17:04
Ran pretty well? It ran as if was running through glue, never looking like picking up at any stage. Dreadful performance.

The game is a joke. When bookmakers are cleaning up condition races then punters have no chance because the handicaps will take care of themselves. Is Hollie sponsored by the bookmakers?
By:
leif
When: 21 Jul 23 17:04
The owner has another one that left George for Haynes' yard.
It's fav for the chuckle brothers memorial  maiden at Donny.

could be another 'chuckle' for george
By:
penzance
When: 21 Jul 23 17:06
Shame Palmar Bay burst the stalls in that.
Thought that had a good shout today.
By:
leif
When: 21 Jul 23 17:06
The form is gash though DD.
beat a horse that finished 9/9 in a notts class 4.
that dayboo race is some fashion of an anomaly.
By:
swiftynifty
When: 21 Jul 23 17:27
timeform and their clocks need servicing.
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