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The Lay System is Going Very Well, Please Send More Funds
The Lay System is Going Very Well, Please Send More Funds
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Replies: 144
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That's racing, backed into 9/2
Battle Of Mirbat Won 10.5 |
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Wexford 7-58 Florey Spud 6.2
0 wins from 16 and up 2lbs from last run Wexford 8-28 Barons Revenge 5.8 Beaten 26 lengths on debut when 9/1 and might need a few more runs to find his feet.. |
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And yet Baron is the forecast fav despite that dire performance, opened at 2.7.
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NHF 3rd favs above 5.0 that opened below 3.0 - 15% Strike rate, +0.28pts.
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Sadies Diamond 232 to 1.3 on debut
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I believe that horses that go up in the handicap as to those dropping pounds have a far greater Place %
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Thanks for the interest G and B
Florey Spud was beaten nearly 4 lengths into 2nd but Barons Revenge was well beaten again by 18 L. |
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WAR IN HEAVEN 3-50 8.0
Four timer in January thru to February and Class 2 a bridge too far |
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Just when I get my head in front again.. That's racing.. |
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well supported, just hung on
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Change of tact Tony, only horses 2/1f to 4/1f in the betting the way forward.. Favourites at the time or paper favs
Leopardstown 5-45 Amanirenas 3/1 Paper fav and 3/1 fav at the moment 6.0 Won for this jockey 7 days ago but now raised 7lbs.. |
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Amanirenas was beaten the best part of 2 lengths..
I like to end the day on a winner, so that's it for today. I was tempted by Big Bard in the 5-50 and Big Time Maybe in the 7-00. 9lbs above CD win in May and in form but. 8yrs old against younger horses but only 6 runners with my new rule of 9 running for me now set in stone.. Good luck Comrades.. |
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Market Rasen 3-20 Pileup 9/4 - 11/4f in the betting 4.0
Has been favourite the past four times and still a maiden after 10 runs, behind Rory and me two weeks ago. Down Royal 6-00 Collective Power 3/1 Paper favourite 5.4 Needs a career best today off a mark of 76 with Ben Coen who has won twice recently off to Limerick Down Royal 8-15 Swiss Army Officer 5/2 paper favourite 8.0 8yr old who is 3 wins from 45 and is now 7lbs above May win when coming good after 173 days off. Veteran in the field and plenty of young bucks running for me. Limerick 8-30 Barometer 11/4f in the betting 5.6 One win from 19 and beaten at 5/4f 38 days ago, raised 2lbs for last run and still 7lbs above only win. |
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All four favourites beaten, the first was 2nd but the other three didn't really get involved.
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Pileup 11/4f 2nd of 12
Collective Power 3/1 Paper fav 7th of 12 Swiss Army Officer 5/2 Paper fav 9/2f 5th of 14 Barometer 11/4f in the betting 9/4f 5th of 10 Losing bets 7/2 9/2 7/1 17/2 7/1 5 losing bets 30.5 30 Winning Bets A touch down all in but this is only for small stakes and for fun, the last five favourites on here have all lost. |
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Do you have a lot of experience laying favs or are you just dabbling? One has to lay at least 1000 favs to crack it imo. There's a fine line between an overbet fav and a steaming cert. You might think that a horse with a form of 0867 steaming from 8 to 3.5 is poor value and then he bolts up of course.
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There is no point in analysing form figures to gain an edge Graze.
The market nails that aspect as they’re often misleading. |
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Thanks Tony, I don't fancy any lays today and just watching. Gaze, I have been backing horses for about 45 years but overall I don't have any experience of laying favs. These are small stake lays just for fun..
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Chepstow 3-15 Astrophysics 4/1f in the betting 5.7
11yr old who has won nine races all told from 5f to 6f, successful on the turf four times on GF and GS and on the AW five times. Back to form a week ago when beaten a nose by Josies Kid when second of 11 at 7-1 at Wolverhampton over 5f but last turf win was a year ago and with much younger legs in the field, he will do well to get tenth win on this fast ground from 9lbs above last turf win.. Windsor 5-05 Reckon Im Hot 6.2 5/2f Paper favourite Gary Moore's 4yr old maiden has been placed in six of his 19 starts and is better on the AW. Beaten a head by We're Reunited when second of 10 at 22-1 on his latest outing at Bath over 6f on Firm ground 31 days ago but has been raised 2lbs for that.. Ballinrobe 7-50 Nostra Casa 8.0 3/1 Paper favourite Won in April after a two year absence at 16-1 at Sligo over 1m 5f on Soft to Heavy on stable debut but raised 10lbs for that, given plenty of time of 57 days to offset the bounce but this Good to Yielding ground might put next win on hold.. |
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Ten Commandments
In November 2007, Sicilian police reported discovery of a list of "Ten Commandments" in the hideout of mafia boss Salvatore Lo Piccolo, thought to be guidelines on good, respectful, and honourable conduct for a mafioso.[166] No one can present himself directly to another of our friends. There must be a third person to do it. Never look at the wives of friends. Never be seen with cops. Don't go to pubs and clubs. Always being available for Cosa Nostra is a duty - even if your wife is about to give birth. Appointments must absolutely be respected (refers to rank and authority).[167] Wives must be treated with respect. When asked for any information, the answer must be the truth. Money cannot be appropriated if it belongs to others or to other families. People who can't be part of Cosa Nostra: anyone who has a close relative in the police, anyone with a two-timing relative in the family, anyone who behaves badly and doesn't hold to moral values. |
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All lost today..
Astrophysics was next to last, Reckon I'm Hot finished Cold about 5th while The Mafia stopped Cosa Nostra.. |
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1000 favs to crack it imo. Even then Gaze, although it sounds like a big sample, in reality if your being selective, that could take years.....
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I knew a guy how thought he had this game WON! He would Lay big priced Novice hurdlers, thinking they are just out for abit of fun for the owners, and learning to jump.. Big Mistake, plenty big priced winners come in sometimes..
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Place laying big priced Novice hurlders in soft ground, not worth it IMO.
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Only takes the Fav/2nd Fav to make a mistake, then your in trouble!
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Yeah Trident I worded it badly. You don't need to lay 1000 favs but you need to analyze at least 500-1000 favs to really know which ones are good and bad. Every variable matters.
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Thanks T, 1000 favs to crack it imo. I'm just happy with the last eight favourites or paper favourites who have come unstuck since I changed my tact.
Newbury 9-00 Hurt You Never 5.6 7/2f in the paper 4yr old filly who is owned and trained by Adrian Nicholls that has been kept in the family and been ridden by son and daughter Jack and Mia who retains the ride tonight. Going for a four-timer now but is 7lbs higher in a better race but the crux of the matter could be the Top jockey's in opposition tonight after all three wins lately have come in amateur and apprentice level.. |
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I'm backing Rich Rhythm there, he's strong for sure.
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Sorry G, didn't see your post. I am sticking to at least 10 runner handicaps and either fav or paper fav. If I think there is a doubt they could become a lay.
I won't get them all correct but it is only for small money with a large bank. I am in profit now but there are small margins either way until if and when I can make a profit.. Good luck Comrades.. |
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My back lost at 1.03, your lay won at 34 IR... I cash out my horses at 1.02.
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In form horses need leaving alone..
Good lesson, that's the second like that on here. There won't be a third.. |
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Checked my trusty database, 2nd favs form 111, flat handicaps, BSP 6-8. 26 runs 7 wins + 21 pts. +5 more now. Quad trick seekers too strong.
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2nd favs are dangerous but I like to lay them below 4/1, there are many useless ones.
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G, they are all dangerous. You only learn by your mistakes, last time out winners and even recent winners will be given a very wide berth from now on..
Losing bets 7/2 9/2 7/1 17/2 7/1 9/2 6 losing bets 35.0 33 Winning Bets |
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LTO winners are very much layable but they are tricky indeed. Some winners get no respect from the market whatsoever and still win, often easily. E.g. some horse wins in a career-best performance at CD, drifts from 7 to 16 in the next race and wins again.
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Is that the clown market I keep hearing you speak of Gaze?
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Yeah. Look at Redredrobin in the 2.4, LTO winner, the clown market overbacked it, and it has no business being below 3/1, because the fav is at least 15% more likely to win.
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Thanks for input lads..
Worcester 1-58 Miss Antipova 9.2 Half Stake Lay 11yr old who is still a maiden after 19 starts, might need to come down still a few pounds.. Carlisle 3-20 Strongbowe 14.5 Half Stake Lay 7yr old who has won 3 from 34, seems to be treading water off this mark. Carlisle 3-50 Vaccine 11.0 Half Stake Lay 4yr old who is there about but is only one win from 13, raised 2lbs for 3rd 56 days ago and another who looks to come down a bit Worcester 4-28 Finisk River 17.0 Half Stake Lay 10yr old who has been off for 214 days, won four times last year from July through to October but has never won fresh and needs a career best.. |
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back to laying rags, eh?
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