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Can Constitutional Hill break a 50+ year barren run for Supreme winners that...
Can Constitutional Hill break a 50+ year barren run for Supreme winners that...
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Replies: 136
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Stewarts surely you cant have the most important statistics and not include the fighting fifth & xmas hurdle ,which have just a good a record if not better than Irish Champion & Kingwell. Binocular won his Kingwell whilst already a Champion hurdler & then didnt win the champion after his Kingwell performance.
Off top of my head Comedy? Night Nurse/Sea Pigeon/Gaye Brief? Kribensis/Punjabi/ Buveur Dair /Epatante won Fighting 5th Lanzarote/Dawn Run/Kribensis/Faugheen/Binoculer/Buveir Dair & Epatante. Xmas hurdle probably missed some others as well |
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I appreciate us mere mortals may not understand stats like you do.
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Didn't mean to upset you Geoff, i'm sure you know the stats probably better than me, i was just pointing out that the Kingwell hurdle has produced quite a few winners of the CH, which may have gone unnoticed and with State Man holding Honeysuckle, Vauban, Pied Piper and Zanahiyr on ICH form, those horses with not much between them then with the likely diffections of Honeysuckle and Epatante to the Mares race then imo I Like to Move it may be a decent EW bet based on his Kingwell and Greatwood demolition jobs.
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didnt upset me @ all Stewarts . Hope he runs well 4 you. I would be more confident if the rain had stayed away for him. Seems to show his best form on a decent surface which imo is far more important than what stats say.
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slickster I just don't want to know them. Not really a question of not understanding them. What % of pro gamblers are slaves to stats or at least use them in a very big way ?
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Slickster - "Howard may not understand stats, I do"
If you think the 50 year stat is a "big stat", I don't think you do understand stats!!. Unless and until you can tell me how many in how many of those fifty years, there was a Supreme winner running that had even a reasonable chance of winning. |
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1.46 and drifting
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I thought Brave Inca did it but he was beaten in his first CH before winning next time. It is a bit surprising. I don't think that it will stop Constitution hill though. I reckon Jonbon is the second best hurdler in training but Nicky is not likely to ever test that out.
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Well if Jonbon is better than State Man CH should be 1/8
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State Man."now everyone should go listen to a song called UNSTOPPABLE recorded by SIA
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salmon spray 10 Mar 23 12:40
As for the stats if we bet them all the time, in every race, we'd be skint in my opinion. Was there not a stat the other day which said that Man Yoo hadn't lost seven goals in a match since nineteen canteen? |
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Another stat that was broken just yesterday.
Gary Lineker hadn't been put on gardening leave for over twenty years! |
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I dunno about youse lot but all this talk of 'quickest hurdler I've ever seen' makes me roll my eyes.
Im my opinion the champion hurdle hasnt been a great race since the one Jezki won in 2014. You know, you could make a case for 4 or 5. The fact that flat horses no longer get channelled into the jumps game plus the concentration of national hunt talent into a handful of training yards means the CH and the supreme novices has been a race to forget. I mean, how many of these wonder horses have we had in the last decade or so? Masterminded, Long Run, Sprinter Sacre, Vautour, Douvan, Altior, Honeysuckle, now this thing. COnstitution Hill has run up some impressive victories in a very uncompetitive division. Deal with it. Horses of yesteryear like Flyingbolt and Desert Orchid won 2m chases and Irish Grand Nationals. Thats the mark of greatness in the jumping game. Michael Dickinson. Ok he got the first 5 home in a Gold Cup. I think Nicholls got 4 of the first 5 home and didnt he manage the first 3 home two years running? MD took over his mothers very successful yard but when he tried to make his mark on the flat he couldnt compete despite having the backing of Coolmore and Sangster. If memory serves he said that Kauto at odds on was 'value' to beat Denman in 2008 and was one of those who thought that the ticket to winning the Aintree Grand National was to run a two-and-a-half-mile chaser. Something which the BHA wont even allow these days. Anything Dickinson says I will take with a pinch of salt thank you very much. |
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Charlie Swann seemed quite impressed that Constitution Hill beat Istabraq's best time by 5 seconds. Who knows how the ground and obstacles compared but 5 seconds is a lot!
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How many of the Supreme winners actually broke the track record? How many finished the race in a far quicker time than the Champion Hurdle winner ? How many finished quicker up the hill than the Champion Hurdle winner.
Those are the type of stats , you should be looking @ . |
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'SUPREME NOVICES - The chestnut. Bula 1971 the last horse to complete the double. And in consecutive years. Browne's Gazette '85 should at 8/13... It's ok, its over.. Since '84, only 10 have tried and only the Gazette, Like A Butterfly and Go Native (all unplaced) came to the Champion Hurdle on the back of a G1 success. . However, both Buveur D'Air 2017 and Jezki 2014 were beaten in the Supreme the year before winning this. 2010 Binocular two years later. 2021 Appreciate It unpl. 2020 Shiskin off to the Arkle. Abacadabras 2nd to Shiskin, 10/1, fell at the third. The 2019 version was not, a classic Klassical Dream inj. 2018 nine finished in a heap in a bog. The best in that field would have been Sharjah who to his credit won a Galway Hurdle off top weight, a G1 Morgiana, four G1 Leopardstown Mathesons and finished runner up twice here. Compare 2016. Altior, Min, Buveur D'Air 3rd. First 11 home have all won decent races. The ambulance was placed since. Very much a rival to the vintage of 2013, Champagne Fever, Jezki etc. My Tent Or Yours 2nd in both races in consecutive years. Form of Supreme winner the next year back to 1990 (7P5005302F8). Looks like the stat is going to die in 2023? - Constitution Hill?'
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Around 15.36 on Tuesday afternoon, punters will wonder why it was 4/9 on here a few days previously.
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No doubt Ikea Man,no reason not to post your imaginary bet before the event for a change?
Punters might wonder why you are conning them again if not?   |
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And your point is? Because it eludes me.
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Ikea mans point?
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Other than lying? is that what you mean?
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Or a biopsy as opposed to an autopsy etc?
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Yes - Ikea man.
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VWD loyal,hope you get your mums money back!!!
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Not in on the joke sorry. She never bet even when she was here. Her pet phrase to my old man was "been up donating to Mrs Harrowers next fur coat have you".
No my point was - will 4/9 look ridiculously generous or the other way around as they cross the line? "Ikea" man hasn;t made that clear. So, whatever the result, he can point to the fact that his forecast was right. |
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You got it loyalhoncho,a few sadly will not!!! |
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Loyal Honcho
Apologies, i guess i could have worded it better. What i meant was, after he wins impressively punters will think 4/9 was an incredible price only a few days before. Personally, i think it will be 2/7 on track. I backed in December (twice) and as recently as this morning, and will be backing again on course Tuesday. |
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A simple photo will do but do not hold your breath loyalhoncho,more chance of snow in Barbados tomorrow!!! NAP
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Don't know if it was ever confirmed what happened, if Valiramix did clip heels or just mistepped or put a foot in a hole, tragic
-------------------- Ran up the arse of the horse in front,looked like an absolute monster and was cruising there so it was a big loss for the stable. |
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Sublimity was btn (4th) in the Supreme.
Won the Chmpn the year after. |
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And I wish you the best of luck Andrew. The sport needs a superstar and I hope the Hill is it!
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Loyal Honcho
Thank you. I was at Sandown when CH made his rules debut and i've been a big fan ever since, posting enthused opinions on my/other threads often enough. Like many on here, i think he's exceptional and i doubt he will be beaten in a hurdle race. Backing odds-on ante post is not something i do often, i think the last occasion was on Frankel, but i took the risk in December as 4/7 and 2/5 then, as well as prices between 1.46 to 1.5 on here since will not be repeated in future if he's as good as i think he is. I also have a bet at 4/11, but that is NRNB. I was lucky enough to watch Frankel 4 times and going to Cheltenham on Tuesday to see CH run for the 2nd time is equally exciting, i can't wait. It's only the 2nd occasion i will be going to the festival meeting. Going by your profile name, i guess you were/are a Greyhound fan. Good luck. |
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For me as a potential punter, 4/9 on the day represents a fair measure of what could go wrong in a race over obstacles. Most people will be wondering if State Man has improved enough to beat him fair and square but for me that is a small component of the risk. Firstly is he 100% healthy and sound when he gets to the start? Secondly will he make a mistake at an obstacle sufficient to lose him the race? Thirdly is there any way that accidentally or on purpose, another horse will either fall in front of him or put him out of the race. I have seen at least 2 potential winners carried out by a loose horse in the last week. If he jumps well and has none of the issues above then he is a 1/5 shot but this is a horse race over obstacles so 4/9 is about right. I shall not be having a bet or a lay.
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looking at the ante-post graph there has been some lucky people got on at 3.62 and downwards. Even evens looks tasty now. That said, A lot of trading will have, will be, done..
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**3.65.
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Morning Sage
I agree with you, neither a back or lay But shall banker him in all but one of my Placepot entries The odd one to put in all first 3 in the betting in that race, where CH would be carrying about 80% of the units, at a guess |
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I can see that Reg, I have never been successful at Placepot. The only time I had a winning ticket was at a meeting where there were very few runners and the dividend failed to cover the 4 tickets I bought! When I was regular at the festival, I had a share in a hospitality tent and we did a shared placepot most days. We all put in a selection for each race and decided how many lines that involved before voting on how many to put in each leg. The nearest we got was a Gold Cup day when I put Jim Old's Al Mutahm (or a similar name) in the Triumph but got outvoted. It finished third and we had the other 5 legs up and it paid quite well. There was a silence when the last result came in. I stick to singles now. Good luck for the week. My bank improved yesterday with both Balding and Nicholls having some decent priced winners.
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We will know later today what the champion hurdle field will look like but there are 3 Mullins entries, 3 for Hendo and 2 Gordon E out of 12. Honeysuckle is pretty much guaranteed to go for the Mares I think. Rich Ricci has two for Willie, so you imagine both of Vauban and Sharjah wont be taking on eachother. Hendo has been grumbling in that Ronnie Corbett voice of his about what to do with Epatante and First Street (Mares and County options). There are two 150-1 shots, one of which is the Hughie Morrison horse who is a decided hold up performer and on all known evidence requires good ground. With the advertised soft going with more rain to come Not So Sleepy looks like a Non.
The field, conceivably could cut up to a handful of runners. Perhaps even an effective match between COnstitution and State Man. The books are taking no chances with the Mullins horse. 9-2, 5-1 he would be a clear each way shot to nothing. So you wonder if the 3-1 is an actual reflection of his chance, which I think most here would agree is slim to none, all things being equal. As someone has said taking 1-3 in a jumps race you do need balls of steel. For want of a better expression you risk upsetting the gambling gods by trying to buy money at that price. One imagines the books will put some sort of winning distance market up. The last time I can think of any horse trading so short in a championship style race like this one was Flightline in the Breeders Cup. Think they put the over/under at 7 lenghts. Flightline won by 8. Ho Hum. |
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Good luck to you for the week Sage
My week will consist of each way multiples to try and snag a big one , but even the places can add up nicely Then, of course, some nice Placepot perms This approach has served me well over the years And there is a few lurking in the handicaps that I will be backing singly On another point, shouldn't be many non runners day 1 or 2 if the forecast weather is correct Currently soft with a few g/s patches |
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Interesting to see the Timeform greatest hurdlers list on Road to Cheltenham this week. Just shows you how ratings don't tell you which is the best horse ( in your own opinion ) "just performances" which are to a good extent opinions as well. Too much numbers thinking doesn't really take on board everything regarding acting on going/staying on going and fitess at beginning or end of seasons. imo that's how the likes of Limestone Lad and Bird's Nest make the list and Sea Pigeon doesn't.
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