Can Constitutional Hill break a 50+ year barren run for Supreme winners that...

Howard may not understand stats I do. There are 3 big stats against him. Bearing that in mind and nothing else you would wanna be crackers taking 2-7. Having said that of course he should win. But there are doubts. You're taking a very short price to find out. State man ew is the boring but obvious selection.

As we all knew anyone punting a tenner would get evens , a few may end up offering it as bait.

Billies the first one from today.

I would think for State Man backers it should be all or nothing (not e/w). He'll obviously be trying to win the race, so he could end up being crushed by a monster and unplaced.

Salmon - brilliant :D

Stewarts surely you cant have the most important statistics and not include the fighting fifth & xmas hurdle ,which have just a good a record if not better than Irish Champion & Kingwell. Binocular won his Kingwell whilst already a Champion hurdler & then didnt win the champion after his Kingwell performance.

Off top of my head Comedy? Night Nurse/Sea Pigeon/Gaye Brief? Kribensis/Punjabi/ Buveur Dair /Epatante won Fighting 5th
Lanzarote/Dawn Run/Kribensis/Faugheen/Binoculer/Buveir Dair & Epatante.  Xmas hurdle probably missed some others as well

I appreciate us mere mortals may not understand stats like you do.

Didn't mean to upset you Geoff, i'm sure you know the stats probably better than me, i was just pointing out that the Kingwell hurdle has produced quite a few winners of the CH, which may have gone unnoticed and with State Man holding Honeysuckle, Vauban, Pied Piper and Zanahiyr on ICH form, those horses with not much between them then with the likely diffections of Honeysuckle and Epatante to the Mares race then imo I Like to Move it may be a decent EW bet based on his Kingwell and Greatwood demolition jobs.

didnt upset me @ all Stewarts . Hope he runs well 4 you. I would be more confident if the rain had stayed away for him. Seems to show his best form on a decent surface which imo is far more important than what stats say.

slickster I just don't want to know them.  Not really a question of not understanding them. What % of pro gamblers are slaves to stats or at least use them in a very big way ?

Slickster - "Howard may not understand stats, I do"

If you think the 50 year stat is a "big stat", I don't think you do understand stats!!.  Unless and until you can tell me how many in how many of those fifty years, there was a Supreme winner running that had even a reasonable chance of winning.

1.46 and drifting

I thought Brave Inca did it but he was beaten in his first CH before winning next time. It is a bit surprising. I don't think that it will stop Constitution hill though. I reckon Jonbon is the second best hurdler in training but Nicky is not likely to ever test that out.

Well if Jonbon is better than State Man  CH should be 1/8   

State Man."now everyone should go listen to a song called UNSTOPPABLE recorded by SIA

salmon spray  10 Mar 23 12:40   

As for the stats if we bet them all the time, in every race, we'd be skint in my opinion.

Was there not a stat the other day which said that Man Yoo hadn't lost seven goals in a match since nineteen canteen?

Another stat that was broken just yesterday.
Gary Lineker hadn't been put on gardening leave for over twenty years!

I dunno about youse lot but all this talk of 'quickest hurdler I've ever seen' makes me roll my eyes.
Im my opinion the champion hurdle hasnt been a great race since the one Jezki won in 2014.
You know, you could make a case for 4 or 5.
The fact that flat horses no longer get channelled into the jumps game plus the concentration of national hunt talent into a handful of training yards means the CH and the supreme novices has been a race to forget.

I mean, how many of these wonder horses have we had in the last decade or so?
Masterminded, Long Run, Sprinter Sacre, Vautour, Douvan, Altior, Honeysuckle, now this thing.
COnstitution Hill has run up some impressive victories in a very uncompetitive division. Deal with it.
Horses of yesteryear like Flyingbolt and Desert Orchid won 2m chases and Irish Grand Nationals. Thats the mark of greatness in the jumping game.

Michael Dickinson.
Ok he got the first 5 home in a Gold Cup. I think Nicholls got 4 of the first 5 home and didnt he manage the first 3 home two years running?
MD took over his mothers very successful yard but when he tried to make his mark on the flat he couldnt compete despite having the backing of Coolmore and Sangster.
If memory serves he said that Kauto at odds on was 'value' to beat Denman in 2008 and was one of those who thought that the ticket to winning the Aintree Grand National was to run a two-and-a-half-mile chaser.
Something which the BHA wont even allow these days.
Anything Dickinson says I will take with a pinch of salt thank you very much.

Charlie Swann seemed quite impressed that Constitution Hill beat Istabraq's best time by 5 seconds. Who knows how the ground and obstacles compared but 5 seconds is a lot!

How many of the Supreme winners actually broke the track record? How many finished the race in a far quicker time than the Champion Hurdle winner ? How many finished quicker up the hill than the Champion Hurdle winner.



Those are the type of stats , you should be looking @ .

'SUPREME NOVICES - The chestnut. Bula 1971 the last horse to complete the double. And in consecutive years. Browne's Gazette '85 should at 8/13... It's ok, its over.. Since '84, only 10 have tried and only the Gazette, Like A Butterfly and Go Native (all unplaced) came to the Champion Hurdle on the back of a G1 success.  . However, both Buveur D'Air 2017 and Jezki 2014 were beaten in the Supreme the year before winning this. 2010 Binocular two years later. 2021 Appreciate It unpl. 2020 Shiskin off to the Arkle. Abacadabras 2nd to Shiskin, 10/1, fell at the third. The 2019 version was not, a classic Klassical Dream inj. 2018 nine finished in a heap in a bog. The best in that field would have been Sharjah who to his credit won a Galway Hurdle off top weight, a G1 Morgiana, four G1 Leopardstown Mathesons and finished runner up twice here. Compare 2016. Altior, Min, Buveur D'Air 3rd. First 11 home have all won decent races. The ambulance was placed since. Very much a rival to the vintage of 2013, Champagne Fever, Jezki etc. My Tent Or Yours 2nd in both races in consecutive years. Form of Supreme winner the next year back to 1990 (7P5005302F8). Looks like the stat is going to die in 2023? - Constitution Hill?'

Around 15.36 on Tuesday afternoon, punters will wonder why it was 4/9 on here a few days previously.

No doubt Ikea Man,no reason not to post your imaginary bet before the event for a change?

Punters might wonder why you are conning them again if not?

And your point is?  Because it eludes me.

Ikea mans point?

Other than lying? is that what you mean?

Or a biopsy as opposed to an autopsy etc?

Yes - Ikea man.

VWD loyal,hope you get your mums money back!!!

Not in on the joke sorry.  She never bet even when she was here.  Her pet phrase to my old man was "been up donating to Mrs Harrowers next fur coat have you".
No my point was - will 4/9 look ridiculously generous or the other way around as they cross the line?  "Ikea" man hasn;t made that clear.  So, whatever the result, he can point to the fact that his forecast was right.

You got it loyalhoncho,a few sadly will not!!!

Loyal Honcho

Apologies, i guess i could have worded it better. What i meant was, after he wins impressively punters will think 4/9 was an incredible price only a few days before. Personally, i think it will be 2/7 on track. I backed in December (twice) and as recently as this morning, and will be backing again on course Tuesday.

A simple photo will do but do not hold your breath loyalhoncho,more chance of snow in Barbados tomorrow!!! NAP

Don't know if it was ever confirmed what happened, if Valiramix did clip heels or just mistepped or put a foot in a hole, tragic


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Ran up the arse of the horse in front,looked like an absolute monster and was cruising there so it was a big loss for the stable.

Sublimity was btn (4th) in the Supreme.
Won the Chmpn the year after.

And I wish you the best of luck Andrew.  The sport needs a superstar and I hope the Hill is it!

Loyal Honcho

Thank you. I was at Sandown when CH made his rules debut and i've been a big fan ever since, posting enthused opinions on my/other threads often enough. Like many on here, i think he's exceptional and i doubt he will be beaten in a hurdle race.

Backing odds-on ante post is not something i do often, i think the last occasion was on Frankel, but i took the risk in December as 4/7 and 2/5 then, as well as prices between 1.46 to 1.5 on here since will not be repeated in future if he's as good as i think he is. I also have a bet at 4/11, but that is NRNB.

I was lucky enough to watch Frankel 4 times and going to Cheltenham on Tuesday to see CH run for the 2nd time is equally exciting, i can't wait. It's only the 2nd occasion i will be going to the festival meeting.

Going by your profile name, i guess you were/are a Greyhound fan.

Good luck.

For me as a potential punter, 4/9 on the day represents a fair measure of what could go wrong in a race over obstacles. Most people will be wondering if State Man has improved enough to beat him fair and square but for me that is a small component of the risk. Firstly is he 100% healthy and sound when he gets to the start? Secondly will he make a mistake at an obstacle sufficient to lose him the race? Thirdly is there any way that accidentally or on purpose, another horse will either fall in front of him or put him out of the race. I have seen at least 2 potential winners carried out by a loose horse in the last week. If he jumps well and has none of the issues above then he is a 1/5 shot but this is a horse race over obstacles so 4/9 is about right. I shall not be having a bet or a lay.

looking at the ante-post graph there has been some lucky people got on at 3.62 and downwards. Even evens looks tasty now. That said, A lot of trading will have, will be, done..

**3.65.

Morning Sage
I agree with you, neither a back or lay
But shall banker him in all but one of my Placepot entries
The odd one to put in all first 3 in the betting in that race, where CH would be carrying about 80% of the units, at a guess

I can see that Reg, I have never been successful at Placepot. The only time I had a winning ticket was at a meeting where there were very few runners and the dividend failed to cover the 4 tickets I bought! When I was regular at the festival, I had a share in a hospitality tent and we did a shared placepot most days. We all put in a selection for each race and decided how many lines that involved before voting on how many to put in each leg. The nearest we got was a Gold Cup day when I put Jim Old's Al Mutahm (or a similar name) in the Triumph but got outvoted. It finished third and we had the other 5 legs up and it paid quite well. There was a silence when the last result came in. I stick to singles now. Good luck for the week. My bank improved yesterday with both Balding and Nicholls having some decent priced winners.

We will know later today what the champion hurdle field will look like but there are 3 Mullins entries, 3 for Hendo and 2 Gordon E out of 12. Honeysuckle is pretty much guaranteed to go for the Mares I think. Rich Ricci has two for Willie, so you imagine both of Vauban and Sharjah wont be taking on eachother. Hendo has been grumbling in that Ronnie Corbett voice of his about what to do with Epatante and First Street (Mares and County options). There are two 150-1 shots, one of which is the Hughie Morrison horse who is a decided hold up performer and on all known evidence requires good ground. With the advertised soft going with more rain to come Not So Sleepy looks like a Non.

The field, conceivably could cut up to a handful of runners. Perhaps even an effective match between COnstitution and State Man. The books are taking no chances with the Mullins horse. 9-2, 5-1 he would be a clear each way shot to nothing. So you wonder if the 3-1 is an actual reflection of his chance, which I think most here would agree is slim to none, all things being equal.

As someone has said taking 1-3 in a jumps race you do need balls of steel. For want of a better expression you risk upsetting the gambling gods by trying to buy money at that price.
One imagines the books will put some sort of winning distance market up. The last time I can think of any horse trading so short in a championship style race like this one was Flightline in the Breeders Cup. Think they put the over/under at 7 lenghts. Flightline won by 8.
Ho Hum.

Good luck to you for the week Sage
My week will consist of each way multiples to try and snag a big one , but even the places can add up nicely
Then, of course, some nice Placepot perms
This approach has served me well over the years
And there is a few lurking in the handicaps that I will be backing singly

On another point, shouldn't be many non runners day 1 or 2 if the forecast weather is correct
Currently soft with a few g/s patches

Interesting to see the Timeform greatest hurdlers list on Road to Cheltenham this week.  Just shows you how ratings don't tell you which is the best horse ( in your own opinion ) "just performances" which are to a good extent opinions as well. Too much numbers thinking doesn't really take on board everything regarding acting on going/staying on going and fitess at beginning or end of seasons. imo that's how the likes of Limestone Lad and Bird's Nest make the list and Sea Pigeon doesn't.

*fitness

The best two hurdlers in my opinion are Night Nurse and Constitution Hill. In which order I hope I can say after Tuesday.

Fav will go off shorter now there's 7 runners than it would have done with 8 runners for sure.

Typical racing fortune to think that Night Nurse was only beaten by a much younger stablemate, Little Owl, to do the Champion Hurdle/Gold Cup double and Owl was regarded as one for the future.  As far as I can recall he never won another race?!

The best two hurdlers in my opinion are Night Nurse and Constitution Hill. In which order I hope I can say after Tuesday.

----------------------------

Golden Cygnet a Novice was cantering all over Night Nurse and actually giving the battle hardened warrior 7lbs when he met his end at Ayr.

Sea Pigeon,Beacon Light and Decent Fellow in the field.

I'd forgotten that.  What a tragedy.

https://www.timeform.com/horse-racing/features/top-horses/greatest-racehorses-golden-cygnet-2252020


For anybody who wasn't around for Golden Cygnet,an absolute beast,the clip of his Sun Alliance-the runner up Western Rose was trained by Fred Rimmell who thought he had something special before the race and couldn't believe what he witnessed.

Just my opinion but the Ayr race highly misleading imo. Night Nurse and Sea Pigeon were trained for Cheltenham and end of a season. SP was also aimed at big flat races. GC maybe best ON THE DAY. Bird's Nest and plenty others beat SP. Doesn't mean they were better horses.

I suppose you could argue that GC was trained for the big Novice race at the same Festival in the same year so it's a game of opinions I suppose where this is concerned.

Punchestown are you suggesting Golden Cygnet was giving Night Nurse 7lbs @ Ayr??

Thought Sea Pigeon was top weight that day. Im sure it wasnt 7 GC .Gave to Night nurse .even so he was carrying more . i think he was 1 or 2 lbs below Pigeon.

Punchestown are you suggesting Golden Cygnet was giving Night Nurse 7lbs @ Ayr??

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Think 7 is wrong,it says 5 in the Timeform article but it might have been less but it was still a mighty performance to be giving any weight to Night Nurse,I think GC was giving 7 to Beacon Light.

Sea Pigeon was giving 1 lb to GC.

At the end of the season, Timeform rated Sea Pigeon 175 and Golden Cygnet 176, and to quote from their annual 'The connections of Sea Pigeon did not dispute the general feeling that Golden Cygnet would have beaten Sea Pigeon in the Scottish Champion Hurdle if he had not come to grief at the last.' Yes, Sea Pigeon did improve over the next 2 years but Golden Cygnet's potential for improvement was massive. Like you said earlier, we will never know.

Of all the top hurdlers I would say Sea Pigeon was the least favoured by soft or worse going. That made Cheltenham far from ideal before the drainage work. If he had been around later he would likely be rated even higher as a hurdler. We know how good he was. Where would Monksfield or Night Nurse have finished in the Ebor on same rating ?

Thanx for that Punchestown .He would have probably been 2/5 in running if it had been available @ that time .To be cruising over 2 all time great champions as he approached the 2nd last was quite remarkable.
With Sea Pigeon it wasnt just the ground Howard. The old course previously they came past the stands and round the top bend which favoured the stamina laden Night Nurse & Monksfield as opposed to Pigeons rapier turn of foot.
Despite winning the Chester CUp twice (obviously course was suited for his speed) his flat performances @ 1m6 ish where right out the top drawer.His defeat to  Le Moss @ Ayr giving lumps of weight was probably one of his finest.

Bula and Comedy of Errors were 2 more very good hurdlers. Not sure how Timeform ranked them. Collier Bay was good on that one day, beating the previous winner Alderbrook quite easily with Danoli behind. He had also won the Irish Champion a few weeks earlier. CB never did much after.

Just my opinion but I put it all down to the going not the extra distance geoff. He easily got 14-16f on the flat and wouldn't need Chester to do so. I'm inclined to think the years he won the Champion hurdle ground was better than usual ( against Monksfield ) and easier race next time. He really was suited to top of the ground even very quick summer ground.

Like with Baeed at Ascot.  Ground or outstayed ? Former for me.

The other side of the Constitution Hill stats coin, as follows, courtesy of atr.

Cheltenham Festival  1 run    1 win   0 places  100%
C and D                        1 run    1 win   0 places   100%
Course                          1 run   1 win    0 places  100%
Distance                       5 runs  5 wins  0 places  100%
Class                             4 runs  4 wins  0 places  100%
Going     (soft and/or good to soft)
                                      4 runs  4 wins  0 places  100%
Finally, if we take his recent runs and wins against Epatante literally he is fully a five lengths better horse on soft going.
Which stats will win out tomorrow?  Come on the Hill!

If he finishes in front of State man he wins it -isn't that what it really boils down to?

Not sure what this if is. Best 2/5 shot to look thro a bridle for many a year.

Yes ...he's no Bula ...........but this is a sorry renewal .......at least the Mares Hurdle looks competitive......

I would exclude Browne's Gazette from the list of failures...........we will never know what did or did not occur on his attempt...

Ruby Walsh thinks it was Sir Ken that was the last hoss to win the Champion Hurdle the season after the Supreme.
Sir Ken won in 1952 Ruby.

Sir Ken was a household name when I was a lad. Impossible to compare generations of horses but times are the only clue we have. And on that basis, CH is the fastest in history by 5 seconds.

Can get 3/1 1o lengths or more. Worth a pop.

10 lengths

Why is it not a 50/1 shot with all these stats?

2/7 indeed.

sage  CH isnt fastest by 5 seconds. I think Annie Power held the record previously in around 3:46 ish without checking. Timings changed a few years ago .Instead of the original method of when the tapes went up its now as the cross the start line.

On the question of Night Nurse and the going , on the morning of his 1977 Champion hurdle he drifted like a barge because it was assumed he wouldnt cope with the ground which looked appalling . We now know better .

The only thing stopping Constitution Hill from winning is if Dermot comes out of retirement for the day

Geoff you cannot compare mares times to the geldings as a guide.

For me, if Constitution Hill doesn't win this it will be because of sheer jockey negligence, and I don't anticipate any.  Nothing else can get it beat for me and, of course, it goes without saying that I hope it doesn't happen.  Reason:  He is clearly head and shoulders ahead of the rest, this is a very small field so in-running interference is a much-reduced possibility, the going suits and the race is likely to be run to suit with State Man probably leading or dictate to its advantage.  He has never shown a hint of a stumble or even a serious clip of a hurdle so far, and whilst he is yet to be put under any sort of serious pressure in a race that is hardly his fault.  The words "easily" and "impressive" are embedded in his form lines, and against very good horses, and there is no obvious reason why he shouldn't reproduce such performances.
Come on the Hill - put on a show for us.

Another trend busted, but only 1 in 50 years...

Every Champion Hurdler since 2022 won the Supreme the year before.

If he finishes in front of State man he wins it -isn't that what it really boils down to?

Two horse race on paper,  one horse race in reality.

sixtwosix13 Mar 23 12:36Joined: 23 Jan 06 | Topic/replies: 22,444 | Blogger: sixtwosix's blog
Yes ...he's no Bula ...


Way better than Bula ...and better than anything else and I go back to the 60's

howard12 Mar 23 10:06Joined: 09 Mar 03 | Topic/replies: 11,673 | Blogger: howard's blog
The best two hurdlers in my opinion are Night Nurse and Constitution Hill. In which order I hope I can say after Tuesday.     I go for the latter.

Constitution winning time - 3m 59:38


Marine Nationale - winning time - 3m 59:69

A good example of times telling you very little.

Both finished full of running - both machines

It might have been the first in 50 years but how many Supreme winners have run in the CH? Horses like Altior, Al Ferof, Douvan, Shishkin were sent chasing while Brave Inca won the CH at the second attempt after winning the Supreme. Of course having to face CH might discourage Barry Connell from running Marine Nationale in the CH next year.

It might have been the first in 50 years but how many Supreme winners have run in the CH? Horses like Altior, Al Ferof, Douvan, Shishkin were sent chasing while Brave Inca won the CH at the second attempt after winning the Supreme. Of course having to face CH might discourage Barry Connell from running Marine Nationale in the CH next year.

Sageform -your question was covered extensively earlier on, on this thread.

obviously an exceptional horse at the moment but talk of greatness is premature. masterminded won the queen mum by 19 lengths from the previous year's winner - noone ever mentions him now.

Agreed A_T but a brilliant horse at present for his age, no doubt about that.  We can only hope he trains on and becomes a great because he is so exciting to watch.  Timeform have put a p after his new rating I believe.  I think they should have also put a plus.
What I enjoyed almost as much was seeing Henderson's expression of delight and eye-streaming, awestruck admiration as the horse swept up the hill.  Isn't it fantastic that these great trainers, now aged, senior and very experienced, still beam with a seemingly new-found delight as they win a big one with a star pupil.  Sir Michael Stoute is exactly the same at 77.  It is a great testament to their love of what they do and their absolute passion for racing and the horses they train to success.

The Challow stat is still going strong.

And the Kauto Star/Feltham stat.

What did Constitution Hill actually beat?

This horse was better, and look who he beat.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2wdCF8LyPe0

Nobody is a bigger fan of Alderbrook than me but anyone that doesn't think CH is way superior should consider getting a new hobby imo

btw anyone else getting sick of Buckley mentioning the Gold Cup ? Horse never seen a fence and never run over staying trips. You've got the best hurdler of all time. Enjoy it and don't bore us to death.

Next year will be 50 years since Michael Buckley purchased his first horse, not won a gold cup so I would be tempted if I were him.

I more or less agree with you howard but at his age ( Buckley's ) it is the excitement of achieving that gets him going ( I think ).  The culmination of all his fifty years of involvement, so to speak, would be to win a Gold Cup.  I;m not saying this horse would automatically do so just allowing the old boy his moment of glory. as he dreams on.  He could stay hurdling and wipe the floor clean next year too, and maybe even the next, so far behind is the opposition.  That is what I would do because I;ve rarely seen a brilliant hurdler go chasing and falter and come back as good a hurdler.  However Night Nurse is the salutary tale.  It has to be argued that he went chasing too late in life and might have achieved more doing so even a year earlier.
Not a bad problem to have though is it!?

Yeah Honcho NN an exception but nearly all the best Gold Cup winners were not great hurdlers at any distance let alone 2m. Dawn Run won a poor champion getting the weight and wasn't one of the chasing greats imo.

He seems a nice guy and has been in the game a long time but likes the limelight and the "drama" of plans played out in the media.

Howard- sounds like you've got a big priced voucher for CH is win 3 champion hurdles