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...haven't gone on to win the Champion Hurdle the following year?
Mad stat - Bula back in '71 the last hoss to do so.
Mad stat - Bula back in '71 the last hoss to do so.
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Yes.
Mad stat indeed though. |
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Might have a few more filthy each-way doubles with State Man in them, on the back of that stat though.
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That's a massive stat to overcome. And there are 2 others. Anyone taking 2-7 this "good thing" would be wise to think again. Do you really want to take those odds with 3 big stats against him as great as he probably is??? No thanks.
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Records there to be broken leif. I think it wins but my cash says dutch two in the four place market.
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It's a Big Mac stat - he'd be all over it
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Just to reduce the 50+ a bit, how many have tried?
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1946 (1) Prince Rupert 5 Ron Smyth Ted Smyth
1946 (2) Freetown 6 George Archibald W. Larkin 1946 (3) Gremlin 5 Phil Canty George Todd no race 1947 [a] 1948 (1) Vulgan 5 Rickie Black John de Moraville 1948 (2) Jean's Last 6 Bryan Marshall Fulke Walwyn 1949 (1) French Wedding 4 Jimmy Brogan Gerry Wilson 1949 (2) Tough Guy 4 Denis Dillon Ivor Anthony 1950 (1) Tsaoko 5 Martin Molony Sam Armstrong 1950 (2) Sir Charles 4 Michael Scudamore[b] Geoffrey Scudamore 1951 (1) Red Stranger 4 Denis Dillon Ron Smyth 1951 (2) Oukileles II 4 Fred Winter George Archibald 1952 (1) Cockatoo 6 Phonsie O'Brien[b] Vincent O'Brien 1952 (2) Evian 4 Fred Winter George Archibald 1953 (1) Assynt 5 Eddie Newman Danny Morgan 1953 (2) Dessin 7 Johnny Gilbert Frank Hudson 1954 (1) Stroller 6 Pat Taaffe Vincent O'Brien 1954 (2) Tasmin 4 René Emery Henry Count 1955 (1) Vindore 6 Phonsie O'Brien[b] Vincent O'Brien 1955 (2) Illyric 6 Tommy Burns Vincent O'Brien 1956 (1) Boys Hurrah 8 Tommy Burns Vincent O'Brien 1956 (2) Pelargos 5 Tommy Burns Vincent O'Brien 1957 (1) Tokoroa 6 Dave Dick Fred Rimell 1957 (2) Saffron Tartan 6 Tommy Burns Vincent O'Brien 1958 (1) Admiral Stuart 7 Tommy Burns Vincent O'Brien 1958 (2) Prudent King 6 Tommy Burns Vincent O'Brien 1959 (1) York Fair 5 Tommy Burns Vincent O'Brien 1959 (2) Albergo 5 Doug Page Clem Magnier 1960 (1) Blue Mountain 6 Dick Broadway George Todd 1960 (2) Bastille 5 Bill Woods Tom Masson 1961 (1) Beau Normand 5 Bill Rees Bob Turnell 1961 (2) Greektown 5 Michael Scudamore Willie Stephenson 1962 (1) Tripacer 4 Tommy Carberry Dan Moore 1962 (2) Clerical Grey 4 Willie Robinson P. Murphy 1963 (1) Honour Bound 5 Terry Biddlecombe Fred Rimell 1963 (2) Buona Notte 6 Johnny Haine Bob Turnell 1963 (3) Deetease 5 Clive Chapman Basil Foster 1964 (1) Flyingbolt 5 Pat Taaffe Tom Dreaper 1964 (2) Elan 5 Dave Dick John Sutcliffe 1965 (1) Red Tears 5 Stan Mellor Harry Thomson Jones 1965 (2) Havago 6 Bobby Beasley Paddy Sleator 1966 (1) Beau Caprice 12 Tommy Jennings Fulke Walwyn 1966 (2) Fosco 5 David Moore Mick Goswell 1967 (1) Chorus 6 Johnny Haine Harry Thomson Jones 1967 (2) Early to Rise 7 Jeff King Bob Turnell 1968 (1) King Cutler 5 Brian Fletcher Denys Smith 1968 (2) L'Escargot 5 Tommy Carberry Dan Moore 1969 (1) Normandy 4 Terry Biddlecombe Fred Rimell 1969 (2) Private Room 5 Willie Robinson Fulke Walwyn 1970 (1) Ballywilliam Boy 5 Bobby Coonan Paddy Sleator 1970 (2) Bula 5 Paul Kelleway Fred Winter 1971 (1) Persian Majesty 4 Terry Biddlecombe Ryan Price 1971 (2) Barnard 7 Johnny Haine Fulke Walwyn 1972 Noble Life 5 Tommy Murphy Christy Grassick 1973 King Pele 4 David Nicholson Gavin Pritchard-Gordon 1974 Avec Moi 5 Roger Rowell Auriol Sinclair 1975 Bannow Rambler 6 Frank Berry Padge Berry 1976 Beacon Light 5 Andrew Turnell Bob Turnell 1977 Mac's Chariot 6 Dessie Hughes Mick O'Toole 1978 Golden Cygnet 6 Mr Niall Madden Edward O'Grady 1979 Stranfield 6 Tommy Kinane Des McDonogh 1980 Slaney Idol 5 Tommy Carmody Liam Browne 1981 Hartstown 6 Niall Madden Mick O'Toole 1982 Miller Hill 6 Tom Morgan Dessie Hughes 1983 Buck House 5 Tommy Carmody Mouse Morris 1984 Browne's Gazette 6 Dermot Browne[b] Michael Dickinson 1985 Harry Hastings 6 Chris Grant John Wilson 1986 River Ceiriog 5 Steve Smith Eccles Nicky Henderson 1987 Tartan Tailor 6 Phil Tuck Gordon W. Richards 1988 Vagador 5 Mark Perrett Guy Harwood 1989 Sondrio 8 Jonothan Lower Martin Pipe 1990 Forest Sun 5 Jimmy Frost Toby Balding 1991 Destriero 5 Pat McWilliams Andy Geraghty 1992 Flown 5 Jamie Osborne Nicky Henderson 1993 Montelado 6 Charlie Swan Pat Flynn 1994 Arctic Kinsman 6 Carl Llewellyn Nigel Twiston-Davies 1995 Tourist Attraction 7 Mark Dwyer Willie Mullins 1996 Indefence 5 Warren Marston Jenny Pitman 1997 Shadow Leader 6 Jamie Osborne Charles Egerton 1998 French Ballerina 5 Graham Bradley Pat Flynn 1999 Hors La Loi III 4 Tony McCoy Martin Pipe 2000 Sausalito Bay 6 Paul Carberry Noel Meade no race 2001 [c] 2002 Like-A-Butterfly 8 Charlie Swan Christy Roche 2003 Back in Front 6 Norman Williamson Edward O'Grady 2004 Brave Inca 6 Barry Cash Colm Murphy 2005 Arcalis 5 Graham Lee Howard Johnson 2006 Noland 5 Ruby Walsh Paul Nicholls 2007 Ebaziyan 6 Davy Condon Willie Mullins 2008 Captain Cee Bee 7 Robert Thornton Eddie Harty 2009 Go Native 6 Paul Carberry Noel Meade 2010 Menorah 5 Richard Johnson Philip Hobbs 2011 Al Ferof 6 Ruby Walsh Paul Nicholls 2012 Cinders And Ashes 5 Jason Maguire Donald McCain 2013 Champagne Fever 6 Ruby Walsh Willie Mullins 2014 Vautour 5 Ruby Walsh Willie Mullins 2015 Douvan 5 Ruby Walsh Willie Mullins 2016 Altior 6 Nico de Boinville Nicky Henderson 2017 Labaik 6 Jack Kennedy Gordon Elliott 2018 Summerville Boy 6 Noel Fehily Tom George 2019 Klassical Dream 5 Ruby Walsh Willie Mullins 2020 Shishkin 6 Nico de Boinville Nicky Henderson 2021 Appreciate It 7 Paul Townend Willie Mullins 2022 Constitution Hill 5 Nico de Boinville Nicky Henderson The 1947 edition was abandoned due to snow and frost Is ged around  |
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Sharp mind is blackbarn. No idea tbh but at a guess, 10?
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Moreover, how many this good have tried? And how many have run in a Champion Hurdle with so little depth?
Stewarty - What are the other two big stats he has to overcome? |
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Not a stats man strontium but interested to know.
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2021 Appreciate It (6th Champion Hurdle)
2020 Shishkin (1st Arkle Chase) 2019 Klassical Dream (Didn’t Run) 2018 Summerville Boy (Didn’t Run) 2017 Labaik (Didn’t Run) 2016 Altior (1st Arkle Chase) 2015 Douvan (1st Arkle Chase) 2014 Vautour (1st JLT Chase) 2013 Champagne Fever (2nd Arkle Chase) 2012 Cinders And Ashes (UP Champion Hurdle) 2011 Al Ferof (4th Arkle Chase) 2010 Menorah (UP Champion Hurdle) 2009 Go Native (UP Champion Hurdle) 2008 Captain Cee Bee (UP Arkle Chase) 2007 Ebaziyan (UP Champion Hurdle) 2006 Noland (Didn’t Run) 2005 Arcalis (UP Champion Hurdle) 2004 Brave Inca (3rd Champion Hurdle) 2003 Back In Front (Didn’t Run) 2002 Like A Butterfly (UP Champion Hurdle) |
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That's interesting leif but as strontium says....And how many have run in a Champion Hurdle with so little depth?
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The better ones have gone down the Arkle route or not run at all from that bunch.
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Stewarty - What are the other two big stats he has to overcome?
wasn't one of them to with Supreme winners going on to run over a 2 1/2 mile trip prior to winning the Champion hurdle? |
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Actually I think that Strontium's points are more relevant than mine. I was merely trying to refine the data! I thought the number would be higher than the 40% indicated by the last 20 years. It does seem that there is an increasing trend for Supreme runners NOT to run in the Champion, but for obvious reasons to have already gone to fences. A review of the odds of those Supreme winners that did run would be interesting, as a quick check suggests that not many were expected to win. Hey ho.
Oh and remember only 6 out of every four people understand statistics |
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I'm stuck between a rock and a hard place in this race. I have set aside a good few bob for the meeting as I fancy a few. Sorely tempted to stick the lot on the FAV and see what transpires. If it wins my bank is larger but if beat that would be the end of the entertainment.
Sensible says try and make the bank last.. |
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C Hill is better than Bula so he'll break the stat. Over and out.
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re: my last post. Twelve runners as it stands but I can see Honeysuckle being a NR. I firmly believe that I have one that will be in the first four. With plenty liquidity expected I think I'll stick to my original plan. (two places) Amazing how this meeting gets the juices flowing early on.
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Hors la Loi 111 won the Supreme for the great martin pipe in 1999.
He left Pipey to join Francois Doumen later that year. Ran twice in France before the end of '99 Sent over to Chelters for the 2000 Champion Hurdle but bumped into Istabraq  and finished second (voodoo could have been broken that year ]Left Doumen to join James Fanshawe end of 2000 -gave Chelters a swerve in 2001 Actually won the Champion Hurdle in 2002 in the race that Iztabraq famously pulled up to a round of applause? |
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https://youtu.be/5mNf5ChGnrk.
Don't know if it was ever confirmed what happened, if Valiramix did clip heels or just mistepped or put a foot in a hole, tragic. |
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The value in the race is to lay him not to get placed. All sorts can go wrong. What price will he be to place? 1.07-1"09? Yeah sure on paper he looks like he win easily without coming off the chaff, but what happens if he bursts a blood vessel? Or goes lame? Or Nico gets his tactics wrong and has either gone too fast between three out and the last. If he goes too fast, he will be on empty at the last, goes to slow, he leaves himself in the position of the Mullins horses with first run.
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Lots can go wrong in any race.
As for the fifty year stat I always look at these things from the opposite viewpoint, i.e., it is that much closer to being broken. For me he has the best stat of all - he has already won over course and distance. And the second best stat - he did it so very impressively. I have no financial interest in the race but hope he wins well. It might grab all the headlines away from whips. |
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If he goes too fast Shlotter . Like they did last year in the SUpreme?? and he still finished faster than Honey suckle did whilst Nico waving to the crowd?? Ive been watching racing 48 years and im convinced this is the best hurdler ive ever seen .Sorry Night Nurse thats just the way it is. Will he ever prove it??? I personally doubt it as small fields and the weakness of opposition . Night Nurse beat the winners of 7 champion hurdles. Constitution has beaten 1 Epatante pulling a cart on both occasions. He wont beat another whilst hes around. Golden Cygnet had all the potential to be an all time great until cruising alongside Night Nurse & Sea Pigeon before tragedy struck @ the 2nd last in the Scottish Champion Hurdle. Can see him making all & keeping well away from clipping heels /behind a faller. Nicos split second decision last year to move in between Dysart & Jonbon approaching the second last save him from getting brought down by Dysart @ the second last. Keep it simple and turn on the burners coming to the second last. 8 to 10 lengths plus.Whats that coming over the hill is it a monster?? Hes a monster. Reckon he will go off 2/9.
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The question is do you want to plough in at 1-4 about a horse that does have 3 major stats to overcome. The supreme stat. Hasn't won over anything other than 2 miles when a 2 and a half mile win would be preferable. And it's only his 6th run 7th with the point to point. Will he win? Most probably but there's enough there to have the money buyers sweating.
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Aye @ 1/4 but hes 4/9 here. theres a big difference
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Horse well on the day jumps avoids fallers thats all you're betting on. Likely to be a painfull watch for layers.
"Hasn't won over anything other than 2 miles when a 2 and a half mile win would be preferable." Rarely read a sentence so crackers on here. |
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Those that read my thread know my opinion of Constitution Hill, the best 4/9 bet this year to my eyes
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It is the minimum of effort that he has needed to show to win these races that is so impressive. He really does look a monster to me.
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noo doubting he has been impressive so far ......IF ! stateman or something else can give him a race then we will see what he finds off the bridal .
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Bula did it and this horse is better than him. I don't care about stats when it comes to the very best horse/s of a long lifetime.
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Dickinson said at Newcastle last night that he was the quickest jumper of a hurdle he had ever seen btw.
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What price will this horse go off at bearing in mind it's 1.47 here and almost everyone on the forum makes it a certainty?
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The most important statistics for the CH are 1) The winner of the Irish Champion Hurdle which is like a roll call of CH winners and 2) horses that win or place in previous CHs tend to get placed again, 3) The Kingwell hurdle has produced a fair few CH winners.
On that basis State Man to win who also won the County hurdle as did Rooster Booster. Might as well back Honeysuckle EW at 12/1-14/1 nrnb as sure to place if she does by any chance run, I like to Move it EW 14/1-16/1 nrnb as won the Kingwell ( Binocular, Katchit, Hors la Loi, Alderbrook), and Greatwood Hurdle. |
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Sparrow as you will know it will shorten on here when it's no longer an ante-post bet. I think the SP will be nearer 2/7 than 2/5. It's possible horse/s will be not be entirely calm in the build up. If CH is playing up you would be worried
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Will be withdrawn on the day when Nicky is horrified to find a hoofprint on the course.
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Mark Twain just texted me and said 50yo barren runs are there to be broken
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Howard may not understand stats I do. There are 3 big stats against him. Bearing that in mind and nothing else you would wanna be crackers taking 2-7. Having said that of course he should win. But there are doubts. You're taking a very short price to find out. State man ew is the boring but obvious selection.
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As we all knew anyone punting a tenner would get evens , a few may end up offering it as bait.
Billies the first one from today. |
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I would think for State Man backers it should be all or nothing (not e/w). He'll obviously be trying to win the race, so he could end up being crushed by a monster and unplaced.
Salmon - brilliant :D |