He'd been reluctant to load, ace, and then he was a bit sluggish away anyway from the gate. I might give him a second look when the headgear goes back on.

Day 199

Canaria Queen, 1pt EW @ 25-1, 5.00 Southwell (4 PLACES)

I'm going to give another chance to Canaria Queen. There didn't appear any fluke about it when she defeated the long odds-on Sacred Falls in a novice at Musselburgh (5f, g-s) in September, and that filly has since won and run well in defeat in handicap company.

Of Canaria Queen's two runs since, she didn't face an easy task at Ripon in an 0-81, and when I selected her last time over C/D, she was returning from a 55-day break and might have finished closer but for finding trouble around 2f out and losing her position from just in behind the pace.

Hopefully that run has sharpened her up, and while her highest draw is a concern, particularly given how the competitve 5f race here on Tuesday panned out, a 3lb drop in the ratings will help, and David Allan, who was aboard for her Musselburgh success, takes over again in the plate.

Sadly, cobs101, it wasn't to be on this occasion.

It's starting to look like I'll still be on with this one next Christmas.

Running P/L: +70.71

Day 200

Rhythmic Intent, 1pt EW @ 9-1, 1.20 Newcastle (4 PLACES)

Rhythmic Intent hasn't won for over two years and is fast approaching his eighth birthday, but he's by a sire who gets plenty of winners on Tapeta and it was interesting that on his latest run over 14f at Wolverhampton, on what was just his second AW start, he came in for late market support, but unfortunately for his backers, he wasn't well positioned in rear but did catch the eye running on well in the closing stages into 6th place.

He's been weak in the betting this morning ahead of this drop back in trip to 12.5f, and it remains to be seen how this pans out for him from stall 11, but he drops from a class 2 into a class 3, and while he isn't going to be getting any better at his age, he is unexposed on the surface.

Miriamne, 1pt EW @ 18-1, 3.44 Newcastle (4 PLACES)

It looked a good effort from Miriamne when last seen 70 days ago over 5f at Wolverhampton, when always on a disputed pace before giving way to a more patiently-ridden George Boughey-trained handicap debutant, who has since followed up under a penalty in a novice and is now rated 15lb higher.

Miriamne has since moved to an up-and-coming yard and undergone wind surgery. She does have to prove her stamina for this stiff 6f but presumably will be ridden with more restraint this time, and promising 7lb claimer Tommie Jakes takes the ride, who is 6-11 at the course (55%, +£71.33).

Private Bryan, 1pt EW @ 28-1, 5.00 Wolverhampton (4 PLACES)

Private Bryan is pretty limited and he doesn't help himself by being a hard-puller, but despite this, he did enough two starts back at Chelmsford (10f) when finishing second, with Cryptos Dream behind him in third, to suggest there may be a handicap in him if running his race more efficiently. He has since disappointed at Southwell (11f) having had another inefficent trip (raced wide, rushed up to lead before halfway).

Private Bryan drops back in trip to 9.5f and Callum Shephard takes over from a 7lb claimer, so he's given a speculative vote in the hope he can get into a better rhythm with a fresh pair of hands doing the steering.

Storymaker, 1pt EW @ 9-1, 8.30 Wolverhampton (4 PLACES)

I'm going to give another chance to Storymaker, who probably did a bit too much from a wide draw over a furlong further trip here in October when I selected her. She's since been in good form over 7f / a mile, when not always having the best of luck in the run.

She's been weak in the betting this morning for whatever reason, but she's got a low draw to work from on this occasion, and is another being ridden by Callum Shephard for the first time.

Wd George Private Bryan was squashed at the start

Well done George, brilliant profit..

Well done George, two good selections deserved a winner.

Cheers Brian.

The drop in trip to 12f was a concern for Zephlyn, given he seems to stay the stretch-two miles round Newcastle, so while Mullen did the right thing in sending the horse to the front 5f out, he still allowed it to turn into a sprint off the home bend in a race that was nearly 8 seconds outside standard. He got a "weakened" comment in the RP form, but he ran through the line, he just didn't have the gears to get away from them. That said, a 13-race, 46-rated maiden, so maybe not one to be making excuses for.

10p Rule 4.

Running P/L: +84.19

Wd George gl .....

GL George, had Banana 2nd in but went for Kitbag in the end in the AW comp...

Well done cobs101.

Banana was away well but the jockey opted to ease back to get some cover, and then she kept on into 5th, not beaten far, but the 4th horse finished off that bit better.

Running P/L: +82.19

Yes, agree, cobs101, and sometimes with these basement grade horses, I think they while they have nothing in the way of a change of gear, they will keep going, so maybe reining her back wasn't the wisest move. Good luck today.

Day 202

Polar Princess, 1pt EW @ 11-1, 5.45 Southwell (4 PLACES)

Polar Princess didn't last long with the Gosden yard but she showed enough to suggest there should be a win in her at a modest level, particularly at Kempton (12f) in May, when although finishing only 4th of the 6 runners and beaten 15L, she shaped like the second best horse in the race having tried to go with a useful Roger Varian-trained filly from some way out and been a clear second at one point before losing two places in the closing stages. The second horse home was the Sir Michael Stoute-trained Wodhooh, was has since been a Listed winner over hurdles for Gordon Elliott, while the fifth My Chiquita, has been a winner subsequently on the Flat and over hurdles.

Her first two runs for Philip Kirby weren't great, but there was more encouragement last-time-out at Wolverhampton (12f) in a higher grade when she wasn't helped by having to try and challenge around the outer but did keep on to be beaten just over 5L. She's now 8lb below her initial mark and hopefully this drop in grade can help.

Franco Grasso, 1pt EW @ 35-1, 6.15 Southwell (4 PLACES)

Franco Grasso probably ran better than his finishing position suggested on his stable debut at this course over 12f in April, when he might have done a bit too much on the front-end but was still close-up into the final furlong before weakening, on what was his first run for over two months. He then won his next start at Yarmouth (11.5f, good).

He's been very disappointing in three starts since, including last-time-out at Newcastle when returning from 5-months off, so it takes a leap of faith to support him back from another short break, particularly in a race where those at the head of the market can have strong cases made for them, but I'm going to have a speculative pick on him at the prices as that previous course run suggested that he could go well round here when things pan out more favourably.

Liv Lucky, 1pt EW @ 15-2, 5.55 Southwell (4 PLACES)

Liv Lucky only managed to win once in 21 starts for the Johnston yard, but she ran well enough on her return from over seven-months off last month at Wolverhampton (7f) to suggest that her current yard may be able to win with her, particularly as it looked an effort that wanted marking up considering she did a lot of running from a wide draw in a contest where the other principals came from off the pace.

Liv Lucky has since disappointed over the same C/D, but she might have done too much too soon from another wide draw. There is a query as to whether this course suits as well having finished unplaced in five previous attempts here, but she ran okay in a couple of starts here for her previous yard, and she might have needed the three runs here for her current one.

Lewis Edmunds, who was aboard for that penultimate start is back in the plate, she has a better draw this time, while a first-time tongue-tie may also be of benefit.

Dynamic Force, 1pt EW @ 5-1, 6.15 Wolverhampton

Dynamic Force has been gradually improving his RPRs in four starts since rejoining Robert Cowell following a spell in Bahrain, and it looked a particularly good effort on the latest of them at Chelmsford fifteen days ago, when pulling away with a bang-in-form rival who was completing a hat-trick.

The first-time cheekpieces he wore that day are retained, with Jack Mitchell, who was aboard him for the first time, keeping the ride, so hopefully he can go well again here if transferring that form to this course. He's off a 3lb higher mark but was rated higher as a juvenile.

O G Beachwear, 1pt EW @ 8-1, 7.15 Wolverhampton (4 PLACES)

O G Beachwear was having just her second AW start when finishing third over C/D last month, when perhaps her effort wanted marking up based on how the race panned out. The fifth has won since, while the second and fourth ran well next-time-out to both finish runner-up.

O G Beachwear has been dropped a pound and this is a lower grade than last time, while she has a potentially nice draw in five to work from, so hopefully she can give a good account if backing up that latest effort.

Churning them out GB
WD

GL, George.


Ok, I've done some sums...

£1 Place @ BSP: +£34.57
£1 Win @ BSP: -£24.28

Thanks 'nick, the spreadsheet is showing +14 at Betfair SP after 2% commission, with place bets settled at standard bets.

But de master has spoken:

"If you'd backed every horse in GB handicaps with 14 or more runners over the last 5 years you'd have made a loss of over 4,000 points at SP - and a profit of over 80 points at BFSP! BFSP can randomly turn moderate tipsters into apparently good ones. It's no guide at all."

If you backed every horse in a GB Handicap this last five years, aged 3 to 7 that hadnt won in the last 12 months then you would have lost 2438 points at Industry SP but be 1856 points better off at Bfsp, but of course at a strike rate of just 3.42%, its impractical (longest losing run 137).

TT
Losing run of 137, what was the biggest price..

Day 205

Starsong, 1pt EW @ 14-1, 12.24 Lingfield

I'm going to take a chance on Starsong at the prices despite a concern over whether she's as effective at today's 7f as she is at 6f. She's a pound below the mark she won off at Chelmsford in February, and she's run well a few times in defeat since off similar marks, including three starts back at Wolverhamtpn (6f) when she was just narrowly denied by two noses in a race from which the winner, second, fourth and fifth have won subsequently.

Starsong also has to prove herself at this course but if she's going to get the trip anywhere it will be here, and Billy Loughnane rides her for the first time.

Society Lion, 1pt EW @ 11-1, 2.24 Lingfield (4 PLACES)

Society Lion has only run over 6f five times on the AW, and he has one notable piece form from last season at this trip when off a 2lb lower mark than today's, he defeated Badri, who was subsequently a big improver.

The selection has generally been in decent form this year with a couple of wins on turf, and he might have needed a couple of runs back on the AW following a 74-day break, including last time at Wolverhampton, when he wasn't disgraced having been caught wide from 3f out.

His previous Polytrack runs have come at Chelmsford, so he does have to prove his effectiveness here, but no bad thing to have Hollie Doyle back on board given her record of 2-5 on him, which included that aforementioned Wolverhampton success.