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WD GB
Back up the ladder |
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Cheers chaps.
A turf winner (22-1 SP) in October, the first since decimalisation on one of my threads. Indeed Mad', should have called this thread 'snakes and ladders'. Sadly, have had to go back to square one too many times. Strike couldn't carry on the good work, not helped by blowing the start, though did keep on to fill the extra place. They went forward with Nonsuch Lad, even though he had his stamina to prove over 12f, and he capitulated fairly tamely under 2f, perhaps a horse who has had enough for the time being. Running P/L: +25.21 |
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Day 177
Rory, 1pt EW @ 11-1, 4.25 Newcastle (4 PLACES) Rory had been campaigned as a sprinter, with all four of his career wins coming at 5f, and he had often caught the eye over sprint trips not always getting much luck in the run, however, his trainer's runners can often prove versatile regarding trip and Rory posted a couple of fair efforts over a mile at Musselburgh and Ayr in the summer when going down by half-a-length on each occasion. He hasn't been at his best on his last two starts, so while it's a concern that he might have gone off the boil for the time being, it's also possible that softer ground hasn't been ideal as his overall record suggests he's best on a sounder surface. Rory has fallen back below his last winning mark and interesting to see how he gets on trying a mile at Newcastle, a course he has yet to run a bad race at, including a win and two places from five starts. Fiftyshadesofred, 1pt EW @ 12-1, 7.30 Newcastle (4 PLACES) Fiftyshadesofred has fallen to a mark 11lb lower than the one he won off over C/D in March of last year, and there have been signs this season that he may be finding his level again, having made the frame at Chelmsford and Ayr, particularly on the latter occasion in May when setting a good pace and being one of three to pull clear. He's returning from a break this evening but can go well fresh as he did when winning here, and while the jockey booking may not be the most positive one (1-19, -£15.75), a chance is taken at a double-figure price. |
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Rory appeared to stay a mile around Ayr and Musselburgh in the summer, but may need a more patient ride at this track as he didn't see his race out having been ridden prominently.
They couldn't give Fiftyshadesofred away in the betting on his return from a break and he offered nothing on this occasion. Running P/L: +21.21 |
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WD George
Not much going on with the 3yo hurdlers. |
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DG, I have had a couple of 'qualifiers' run recently, Think Climate and Bingley Crocker, who were sent off at 11-2 and 8-1 respectively, but neither looked obvious candidates for hurdling and so it proved as they were both pulled up.
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Hi Royal, 1pt EW @ 100-1, 3.05 Ascot
Hi Royal looked set for a good season when finishing runner-up to Chaldean in the 2000 Guineas on soft ground, and he backed this up with a respectable third in the Irish version on good ground behind Paddington. However, the wheels have come off big time in a couple of high profile Groups 1s at Deauville, so he clearly has a lot to prove now, but he's had a break since and while a minor place may be his best hope even if restored back to his previous form, he gets a speculative vote at huge odds, on ground he should handle. Let's Go Hugo, 1pt EW @ 6-1, 6.30 Wolverhampton I'm going to give another chance to Let's Go Hugo, who's run okay this season off reduced marks to make the frame on occasions, including over C/D. I selected him on his latest start at Newcastle, where he travelled strongly into contention to dispute the lead into the final furlong but didn't see his race out. Hopefully the return to an easier 5f will suit and his mark has been dropped a further 3lb. |
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OMG I'd better green up on Hi Royal
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Wd George
gl .... |
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Hi Royal and Chaldean confirmed what a dreadful 2000 Guineas it was this year. I hoped that a rest might rekindle Chaldean but he stopped to nothing.
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Cheers Virgin.
Indeed, sageform. Running P/L: +26.41 |
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Day 179
Vitalline, 1pt EW @ 20-1, 3.55 Windsor (4 PLACES) Vitalline might have run better than his finishing position suggested here on his reappearance in May over 11.5f (g-f) in a higher grade, when he probably did too much too soon but kept on reasonably well. He wasn't then seen again until two weeks ago over the same trip, when he was close up in the straight before weakening inside the final furlong, perhaps the run being needed. His four career wins have come at 6/7f, including one on soft ground, so whether a mile on heavy ground is what he wants is unclear, but a chance is taken at the odds in the hope his recent spin here has advanced his fitness, and another 2lb drop in the ratings may help. Deceiver, 1pt EW @ 14-1, 6.40 Wolverhampton (4 PLACES) Deceiver is another who has been lightly-raced this year, and he returned from a five-month break to finish a good third of 13 at Kempton (7f) recently, when he wasn't helped by a wide draw and being slowly away, but soon recovered to race prominently in a contest where the winner came from well back, and the second (who was caught on the line) had been shaping previously as though there was going to be a bigger effort in him. Deceiver has been easy enough to back this morning, perhaps his wide draw and having his stamina to prove over this stretch-mile being factors in that, but being by Cracksman gives encouragement for the extra yardage, and hopefully there is more to come from this half-brother to useful performers Equality, Badri and Outgate. |
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George
Is that 72 page pullout worth buying on pdf? |
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DG, given a piece written by James Willo is such a rarity these days, that's got to be worth the £4.50 alone. There seems to be plenty of content in it, and if you're a jumps fan, I wouldn't put you off.
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Vitalline didn't see his race out on the ground.
Deceiver, who was well backed, went forward from the widest stall and gave it a good shot from the front, but one emerged from the pack to come and catch him. Running P/L: +26.21 |
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Cheers George
Was always a fan of Willo! |
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Day 180
Ebt's Guard, 1pt EW @ 16-1, 5.20 Newmarket Ebt's Guard was encountering soft ground for the first time at Newbury (7f) on his penultimate start when sticking to his task well to finish runner-up to one who had been ridden more patiently. It was just a five-runner contest, though the 4th finished second on his next start in a valuable 22-runner sales race at Newmarket on quicker ground. Ebt's Guard ran just okay on his next start to finish 4th at Epsom on a sounder surface, but interesting to see if a return to softer ground can produce a better effort., granted his draw in one doesn't prove to be a disadvantage. Badorgan, 1pt EW @ 14-1, 7.30 Kempton Bodorgan has to bounce back from a poor effort at Newmarket (9f) last-time-out when it's possible the good to firm ground was quicker than he cares for, but he had previously finished a good third of 13 at Haydock (one mile, good) where he had four subsequent winners in behind. This will be his first AW start so does have to prove himself on Polytrack, but a chance is taken at the odds, and hopefully the fitting of a first-time tongue-tie will prove beneficial. |
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* Ebt's Guard, 1pt EW @ 16-1, 5.20 Newmarket (4 PLACES)
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No complaints about how the race panned out for Ebt's Guard, who had every chance to make the frame from under 2f out, but his finishing effort inside the final furlong left a bit to be desired.
Badorgan didn't obviously take to the Polytrack on this switch to the AW. However, this was a 0-97 and a drop in the weights may allow him into a 0-82 next time, so a lower grade, Tapeta and going left-handed again may help if they persist with him on artificial surfaces. Running P/L: +22.21 |
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Day 179
Caesar's Pearl, 1pt EW @ 18-1, 7.30 Wolverhampton Caesar's Pearl very much caught the eye over C/D in July on her penultimate start, when she was denied a clear run up the rail and left the impression she would have gone close with any luck in the run. She ended up finishing 7th of the 12 runners and behind one of this evening's rivals Belle Fourche, who finished third. Caesar's Pearl disappointed on her only subsequent start at Pontefract, a course she had previously won at, and now returns from over two months off, having been very weak in the betting this morning, so this might not be the time catch her, but a chance is taken at the prices. Storymaker, 1pt EW @ 6-1, 8.30 Wolverhampton (4 PLACES) Storymaker, who is related to winners on the all-weather, hasn't had many chances on synthetic surfaces but has shaped as though there may be a bigger effort in her, having shaped well at Chelmsford on her debut last season when finishing third to the useful Running Lion, and of her three AW starts since, she ran okay to finish a close-up third here over 7f on her reappearance, and having had excuses (too free, returned with a cut) back here in June over 8.5f, she was noted making late gains when upped in trip to 10f at Chelmsford on her latest start. Storymaker hasn't always looked the strongest of finishers, but is by Ulysees, and that latest keeping on effort suggested this evening's trip of 9.5f should be fine, granted a reasonable trip form her draw in 11. Her mark is now 7lb below her initial rating. |
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I was hoping you'd find something to challenge The Caltonian in the 5.30 @ Wolves George
Spent far too long on the race ...not a lot of pace in there but plenty have potential for an upset ...or Fav just laughs at them ...again ![]() Split Elevens NR 7 cd efforts placed 4 times inc 1 win off today's 59 Crystal Dawn WAS 18-1 > 14-1 ran to form on return Daring Guest small e/w (4 pl) 22-1 slightly overpriced has old 6f efforts here so might suit 7f and recent return after a long break was OK on soft Good Luck with yours only done one race so far ![]() |
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Good luck Virgin
The Faulkner yard landed quite a gamble the other day at Windsor with Fitzrovia, but it doesn't look like they will be repeating the feat with Brave Display, out to 66s now in that 5.30. |
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oHH George painful to watch Dodgy Bob win @ 66-1 having Napped him in his previous race in last years AW comp (beating Brave Display
) it is a very tight race today ...gl |
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Well done on the place, Virgin
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Ta George gl ... |
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Caesar's Pearl was weak in the betting all day, on her return from a break, eventually sent off a Betfair SP of 36.2, and having pulled hard, she weakened out of it in the straight.
Storymaker had to use up a bit of gas to get to the front from her wide draw and, in a race where three of the first four home came from off the pace, she faded out of the places inside final 100 yards. Maybe there will be a better effort in her when things pan out more favorably. Running P/L: +18.21 |
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Day 180
Coconut Bay, 1pt EW @ 16-1, 5.45 Wolverhampton Coconut Bay was 10f winner at Lingfield (AW) for Hughie Morrison last season, and she ran well enough on a couple of occasions at Ayr earlier this season to suggest that she should be up to winning a low-grade handicap for her current yard. However, following a mid-season break, during which time she went underwent wind surgery, she has only hinted that she may be about to find some form again. Whether this evening's trip of a stretch-mile is an adequate test for her, is a concern, but the headgear is removed, she's having another go at Wolverhampton (wasn't beaten far on her only previous handicap try here over 9.5f) and Lewis Edmunds is a change on hands in the saddle. This race doesn't look overloaded with pace-setters, so she should be able to take up a prominent position from her draw in six. Cuban Confusion, 1pt EW @ 10-1, 8.00 Dundalk Cuban Confusion is only rated 70, so whether he's up to a winning a maiden where a number of leading stables are represented, remains to be seen, but he showed when finishing a close-up third of 14 over 7f here in a handicap on his latest start that he can go well on the surface. His effort here might have wanted marking up too as he'd been keen enough from his wide draw and, having led up the straight, seemed to idle in front, possibly still green or perhaps not the most straightforward, as he is still a colt. Cuban Confusion has his stamina to prove for a mile, but hopefully Oisin Orr, who takes over in the plate, will be mindful to ride him with a tad more restraint given his mount didn't do much when hitting the front last time. |
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Wd George
![]() gl .... |
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Nice couple of places George.
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Thanks Virgin & Brian
Running P/L: +22.21 |
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WD George
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Cheers 'ace
Alexa's Princess, 1pt EW @ 33-1, 5.28 Doncaster I'm going to have a speculative pick on Alexa's Princess, who only reappeared last month at Carlisle (7f, g-s), where she showed up prominently for a fair way before fading to finish fifth of the nine runners, beaten just over 2l. The runner-up has won since on the AW, and others have subsequently run well in defeat. The selection has since run poorly at Newcastle, but perhaps the Tapeta surface isn't for her. Alexa's Princess is a 3YO filly in open company so doesn't face an easy task given the ground is expected to be testing, but is a fresh horse for this late stage in the season. Regarding the ground, she seems to handle some cut and is out of Born To Sea mare, but it is a definite query. Tamaluk, 1pt EW @ 5-1, 6.30 Chelmsford Tamaluk has probably run better than her finishing position would suggest the last twice at Kempton and Lingfield, having had plenty of use made of her from wide draws before weakening late on. There are other potential pacesetters in this evening's field, but granted a reasonably efficient trip, hopefully she can see her race out better this time. |
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Running P/L: +20.51
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Shake A Leg, 1pt EW @ 20-1, 4.15 Newcastle
Shake A Leg has yet to win in 12 attempts on the AW, but has run respectably on occasions off higher marks at this track, albeit in small field affairs when he might have held a tactical advantage, and although he has finished well held the last twice when he raced here, those runs came in class 3 contests. Shake A Leg has undergone wind surgery since he was last seen 51 days ago, and can race here off a mark 7lb lower than he was last successful off on turf. He tends to be ridden forward in his races, and this isn't the easiest track for those tactics, but he's become well handicapped and hopefully has derived some benefit from the wind op'. Vormir, 1pt EW @ 50-1, 4.35 Galway (5 PLACES) I going to have a speculative pick on Vormir, whose not an obvious one for today's trip of 12f, which he has only tried once previously, but he has on occasions left the impression that he's worth another try over this sort of distance, including twice this season at Naas (one mile, soft, 6th of 18) and Roscommon (10.5f claimer, y-s, 7th of 11) when he was noted staying on from off the pace. He's returning from a short break here and will need luck in running from his inside draw, but if this one of his better days and the race sets up for those coming from off the pace, hopefully he can stay on to at least press for a place. |
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A couple of poor ones today.
The 50-1 winner of the 4.35, Game Nation, had been a selection three times on this thread when he was trained in England, including when a big market drifter in a 7f claimer at Wolverhampton; turns out what he really needed was a test of stamina, finally winning one when stepped up to 12f on heavy ground. Running P/L: +16.51 |
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Day 183
Cubanista, 1pt EW @ 15-2, 1.42 Catterick Cubanista hasn't been running too badly for his new yard, having put in some good late work the last twice at Pontefract and Redcar over 5f. His win for Pam Sly came over 7f at Yarmouth on soft ground, so there is a definite query over the suitability of 5f, however, the ground today is going to put a bit more emphasis on stamina, and he's now 8lb lower than when finishing a good second at Yarmouth in June, admittedly under different conditions. He might not be best berthed in stall three if the field comes stands' side, but hopefully this drop back in grade can see him at least press for a place. Sugarpiehoneybunch, 1pt EW @ 20-1, 3.22 Catterick (4 PLACES) Sugarpiehoneybunch is a daughter of Fast Company, who had probably shaped better than her finishing position suggested over 7f at Redcar on soft ground last season, and when she belatedly got the chance to race on similar ground again at Thirsk earlier this season over 12f, she did the thread a favour by winning at decent odds, and she then followed up on heavy ground at Catterick. She hasn't offered much in a couple of starts back following a six month break, including here last time over 14f on heavy ground when never in it behind the runaway winner, however, she did seem to make some late-headway, albeit beaten a fair way. Hopefully those two runs back have advanced her fitness, and she looks worth another try at today's 2m trip, which a fully-fledged jockey taking over in the plate from an apprentice. Mai Alward, 1pt EW @ 25-1, 8.15 Newcastle (4 PLACES) Mai Alward seemed to run well over 7f here in August to finish 3rd of 13, when perhaps first-time blinkers gave her a boost, and then she wasn't disgraced on her next start at Musselburgh, but her last two efforts have been poor, including over C/D. The form of her third here could have worked out better, and there has to be a suspicion that any benefit from the blinkers has quickly worn off, however, she might have benefited from a 6-week break, and the way she went through the race here when making the frame suggested she should be fine at 6f. |
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Cubanista kept on for third place on this latest attempt to turn him into a sprinter.
Sugarpiehoneybunch could never get competitive, while Mai Alward travelled well in behind the speed but found zilch when pulled out to challenge. Running P/L: +13.21 |
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Day 184
New Hope Bullet, 1pt EW @ 40-1, 2.38 Lingfield New Hope Bullet has only managed one run this season which came at Goodwood in May when she finished last of 9, but might have had an excuse as she was reported to have banged her head on the stalls and has been absent since. So there's clearly a bit to be taken on trust here, not least whether she has trained on, but she's of a little interest back on Polytrack as she's out of a mare who was a Listed winner in France on the surface, and New Hope Bullet herself is unexposed on the surface after just three starts on synthetics, having won at Chelmsford on her AW debut, then finished a close-up fifth here in a bunch finish, and although she was beaten over 9 lengths into 4th on her final juvenile start at Newcastle, she might have had enough for the year and the race was won by Michaela's Boy, who went on to be rated in the 90s. Today's race isn't an easy starting point back against some in-form male opposition, but hopefully they're bringing her back this late in the year because they think she still has something to offer. Her three wins as a juvenile came at 5f but there is no reason on pedigree why she shouldn't stay 6f. Valadero, 1pt EW @ 16-1, 4.40 Kempton Valadero is clearly a risky proposition at this stage, a 250,000 euros yearling who had shaped with plenty of promise in the Brocklesby, but who hasn't gone on as expected and was a stable switcher (same owner) after his third start. His first run for Darryll Holland wasn't too bad when finishing third at Chester, but he was weak in the betting when last seen 6-weeks ago in a Sandown novice and finished well held. Valadero's mark has been dropped 5lb ahead of his nursery debut which allows him into this 0-75, and a 7lb claimer is enlisted for the ride. There has been a suspicion that he might not be the most straightforward as he did carry his head high when hitting the front in the Brocklesby, so perhaps a gelding operation since he was last seen might help focus his mind on being a racehorse. |
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An industry SP of 100-1 for New Hope Bullet, and nothing positive to report.
Valadero was very much the second-string of the two Amo-owned horses in the 4.40 according to the betting market, as the other one landed a gamble. The selection was held up off what appeared a steady gallop and could only make minor late-headway. Running P/L: +9.21 |
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Day 185
Kehlani, 1pt EW @ 10-1, 3.20 Wolverhampton Kehlani has been weak in the betting this morning ahead of her return from a 47-day break, but she is of interest on her penultimate run at Southwell, where she finished second of 14 on her first attempt at 12f in first-time cheekpieces, when she was never too far away from a solid gallop and stayed on well for second place; better might have been expected when she reopposed the winner at Lingfield over an extra furlong, but she was a bit disappointing and finished behind Turner Girl, whom she meets here on 3lb better terms for a 3l beating. Kehlani now tries 14f, and while that latest effort raises doubts about her stamina, the Southwell run did suggest she will stay further and is able to run off the same mark today. Lady Manyara, 1pt EW @ 16-1, 6.15 Newcastle Lady Manyara is returning from over a year off here but interesting that her good yard is persevering with her, and she's of interest based on her second run as a juvenile when she finished third at Carlisle (6f, good) behind Alpha Capture, who went on to Listed success, and the runner-up, who was making his debut, went on to be rated in the 90s this season. Lady Manyara didn't seem to progress in two further starts as a juvenile, at Haydock (6f, g-s) where the jockey reported that the filly had run green, while the form comment noted that she was tenderly handled and weakened final furlong; then here when stepped up to 7f, where she took a keen hold before being hampered and weakening out of it. So there is a bit to be taken on trust on this return from a long absence, but her mark has quickly been dropped 5lb, and hopefully fitness won't be an issue coming from this yard. |