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George's 100 day, 100 points Profit Challenge
George's 100 day, 100 points Profit Challenge
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Wd George
 gl .... |
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Well done.
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Cheers all
Running P/L: +36.36 |
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Day 152
Forward Flight, 1pt EW @ 12-1, 1.50 Redcar (4 PLACES) Forward Flight, formerly trained by Alan King, suggested there are races to be won with him for his talented new trainer, when finishing second of 14 at Wetherby (one mile, g-s) in late-April, when always close up and keeping on well. A bit of give in the ground does seem to help him, so hopefully the overnight rain has had some impact. He ran okay on his next start to finish 3rd of ten at Thirsk on good ground, but his two runs since have been below par, when the soft ground shouldn't have been an issue at Beverley (8.5f), and last time at Newbury when perhaps the 10f trip stretched him. Forward Flight has had a break since, and while his high draw is a slight concern, he is 2lb lower than for the aforementioned Wetherby effort. Circus Lion, 1pt EW @ 10-1, 2.25 Redcar Circus Lion made an encouraging debut at Hamilton (5f, good) two weeks ago when finishing third behind a couple of previous winners and clear of a 76-rated rival in 4th place. He finished his race off on the front foot at that stiffer track so this easier five furlongs is a bit of a concern, but he's entitled to come on for the experience and hopefully can sit closer to the pace this time. Coconut Bay, 1pt EW @ 22-1, 6.00 Newcastle Coconut Bay, who was a 10f Polytrack winner at Lingfield last season when trained by Hughie Morrison, had suggested when finishing a close-up third at Ayr (10f, good) in May that it wouldn't be long before her capable new yard would be winning races with her. However, she hasn't gone on in five starts since, including following a break and wind operation, but there was a bit more encouragement over C/D on her latest start when never well positioned and not getting the clearest of runs in a bunch finish. She did finish behind Balqaa (second) and Ana Emaraty (sixth), who didn't get clear runs either and whose chances are more obvious here, but a chance is taken at the odds in the hope that a better effort is in the offing. |
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The two Redcar selections made the frame, but Coconut Bay refused to settle and could only finish a well held 6th.
Running P/L: +36.76 |
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Day 153
South Parade, 1pt EW @ 8-1, 3.25 Beverley I'm going to give another chance to South Parade, who caught my eye on her debut at Thirsk (6f, good) in June, when although she ended up being beaten nearly nine lengths, she probably shaped a good bit better than the bare result having been poorly drawn, raced green throughout and hung left, but was still close up over a furlong out, however, her jockey was unable to ride a finish as she continued to lug to her left. I selected her on her second start at Carlisle (6f, g-f) which came off a two-month break, when she was more clued up, racing handily, but didn't see her race out inside the final furlong. She was beaten over 8 lengths into 6th, but the winner looked very useful in winning in a good time, the second has since been placed in a Racing League nursery, and the third won a novice on her next start over the same C/D. It's possible the quicker ground might not have suited South Parade at Carlisle, as the ground (which was changed to soft later on the card at Thirsk) was probably softer than the official good on her debut, so while she may be one for nurseries now, and her draw in 1 here could be a disadvantage if the field comes centre to stands' side, a chance is taken each-way on this drop back to 5f. Dashing Roger, 1pt EW @ 14-1, 4.20 Yarmouth Dashing Roger is probably on the downgrade now as a 6YO and he hasn't won for over two years (now 16lb below his last winning mark), but he didn't run too badly on his latest start in a class 2 handicap at Sandown (10f, good) to finish 5th of 14, and although he was beaten nearly ten lengths by the comfortable winner Dual Identity, he is among the fancied runners for next week's Cambridgeshire. Dashing Roger is 2-2 at Yarmouth (both wins over the mile on g-f in 2020), and he shouldn't mind what the weather does, while this intermediate 9f trip should be fine. Loddon, 1pt EW @ 18-1, 5.45 Beverley Loddon has been sold for 12,000 gns out of Ed Walker's yard since she last ran 32 days ago, but hopefully fitness won't be an issue given that relatively recent run, and she's of interest here based on her penultimate start which came over a mile on heavy ground at Sandown, when she finished second to Eastern Charm, who was completing a hat-trick and has gone in again twice since. The form of those in behind might not have been great but Loddon's effort probably wanted marking up given she'd raced freely. That wasn't the first time Loddon has raced with the choke out so this step back up to 10f is a concern, and she was below par last time at Bath on her final stable run, so there is a bit to be taken on trust here, but she's off the same mark as that Sandown effort where she showed she can handle testing ground. |
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South Parade got to the front and was able to set the fractions but ultimately had to settle for third place.
Loddon settled fine on the pace and ran well to finish second, finding only a well backed stable switcher too strong. 10p Rule 4. Not much dash from Dashing Roger, who backed out of it once things got serious. Running P/L: +38.41 |
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Day 154
Empire Of Light, 1pt EW @ 33-1, 3.20 Yarmouth Time has shown that the 'confined' restricted novice Empire Of Light won on the July course (6f, g-s) in June probably wasn't the strongest, even though the horse he duelled with and got the better of, had shaped with definite promise on his debut. Empire Of Light hasn't gone on in two starts since on officially good ground, putting in an absolute shocker at Windsor (beaten 60L), though wasn't totally disgraced under a penalty in a class 3 novice at Carlisle last-time-out. He would seem to have had his limitations exposed, but a chance is taken at the prices in the hope the combination of a switch to nurseries and being back on easier ground prompts a better effort. Grey Fable, 1pt EW @ 16-1, 4.00 Listowel (4 PLACES) I'm going to give another chance to Grey Fable, who had been running well on easy ground since being stepped up in trip to 12/13f, at Roscommon (12f, g-y) in May when finishing second of 16 to one who was completing a hat-trick (when his rise in the weights was offset by a good 7lb claimer being enlisted), and at Leopardstown (13f, soft) when he was never too far away from what appeared a decent gallop and having led travelling well 2f out, he was headed 1f out by one who had been ridden more patiently and was following up a last-time-out win. I selected Grey Fable last-time-out at Cork (12, good) when he was pestered up front but still ran respectably to finish fourth (and behind the second Timeless Piece whom he meets on 3lb better terms but that rival has a good 7lb claimer on this time). He's drawn wide here and it remains to be seen if he can handle the forecast more testing ground, but a chance is taken at the prices with four places on offer. Vinaka, 1pt EW @ 20-1, 5.05 Yarmouth Vinaka was probably flattered to an extent when doing the thread a big favour by winning at big odds at Epsom (7f, soft), having got a solo against the favoured rail; that said, the form has worked out well with the runner-up having since completed a hat-trick, while the third and fifth have won since too. Vinaka failed to make much impression on her latest start at Kempton, but that had also been the case prior to her Epsom win, though the way she kept on last time suggested she's worth another try at a mile. She remains unexposed on easy ground and hopefully can give a good account granted her low draw doesn't prove to be a disadvantage. |
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Still be interested in how much you would have made by betting place only on Betfair SP George.
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sageform, the current Betfair SP + / - for the thread after 2% commission is around -52. So I think the answer to your question is approximately nothing.
And it didn't get any better today with three poor ones. Running P/L: +32.41 But to quote Hugh Taylor: if you'd backed every horse in GB handicaps with 14 or more runners over the last 5 years you'd have made a loss of over 4,000 points at SP - and a profit of over 80 points at BFSP! BFSP can randomly turn moderate tipsters into apparently good ones. It's no guide at all. |
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I only mentioned BFSP as exchanges are the only place I know that you can bet place only and you seem to select a lot of good priced placed horses. Do you have any data on BFSP place odds compared to the place element of your e/w bets?
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No sageform, but you have to be wary anyway, because of the relatively poor liquidity in the place markets, and you often see horses being returned a much bigger BSP than they had been, say, just a minute before the off. So as Hugh says, Betfair SP not always the best guide.
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Biggles, 1pt EW @ 13-2, 4.10 Newbury
It's possible the drying ground at Doncaster last week was against Biggles, but he showed enough on his return from a short break to suggest he had come back in reasonable form, keeping on well but not knocked about once it was clear he wasn't going to reach the leaders. Biggles was an impressive winner on soft ground over C/D last season on his only previous start here, admittedly in handicap company, and hopefully he can go well again at this track provided he doesn't find this coming too soon. ============ A couple against the field in the 4.35 who should both appreciate the return to softer conditions. No Barrier, 1pt EW @ 20-1, 4.35 Ayr (4 PLACES) Tremendous Times, 1pt EW @ 20-1, 4.35 Ayr (4 PLACES) It looked a good effort from No Barrier at Nottingham (8.5f, heavy) on her penultimate start, when always on what looked a decent pace in the conditions and keeping on well to finish second. She disappointed on her latest start at Haydock when the good to soft going shouldn't have been an issue, and perhaps any positive effect from wearing blinkers has started to wear off, but it's also possible the race came soon enough just nine days later. Hopefully a short break has restored her back to form, and she's off the same mark as for that Nottingham run. Tremendous Times ran well at Carlisle (9f, g-s) in July when finishing second to Dandys Angel (who has won three times since), when perhaps he made his move for home soon enough but was only headed in the final strides. He's been disappointing in a couple of runs since on quicker ground, for which he's been dropped 3lb, but that Carlisle run was his only start to date on ground officially easier than good, so interesting to see if a return to softer terrain can prompt a return to form. ================= Lilac Lady, 1pt EW @ 25-1, 8.00 Dundalk (4 PLACES) It looked a mark-up run from Lilac Lady when finishing a keeping-on second of 16 at Naas (10.5f, good) in July, considering the winner dictated from a low draw while she was caught 3-wide without cover. She then ran well again to finish fourth of 17 at Cork (10f, good), where she would have finished closer with a clearer run up the straight. I selected on her latest start at Roscommon where it seemed the combination of stepping up in trip and softer ground found her stamina out and she faded to finish 6th, though that was still a respectable effort given the third came out and bolted up at Listowel yesterday, and the 4th has won since too. She's been very weak in the betting this morning, has a headgear switch, and has to prove herself on Polytrack, plus there's a chance a hard enough race last time might have left its mark, but a chance is taken at the odds back on a better surface. |
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No excuses for Biggles who got there to have every chance but couldn't pick up as well as those more centre to stands' side.
The 4.35, which was much the slower of the two divisions, the field opted to stay far side on this occasion and inevitably off a steady pace there was trouble in running for some, including No Barrier, who didn't get any luck up the rail. My other pick, Tremendous Times, pulled his chance away. The market was cold on the chance of Lilac Lady, and no worries for the layers, as she was never travelling and came home among the stragglers. Running P/L: +26.41 |
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* Running P/L: +24.41
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Sirona, 1pt EW @ 16-1, 1.15 Ayr
There have been a couple of respectable efforts from Sirona this season, on her reappearance in the Cheshire Oaks, when she travelled too keenly on the testing ground before fading to finish 4th, and on her penultimate start over a mile at Newmarket when she appeared to be finding the trip on quick ground too sharp before finishing off well into second place. The concern here would be the mile on drying ground, but a chance is taken at the prices. Dream For Gold, 1pt EW @ 33-1, 2.25 Ayr (6 PLACES) Dream For Gold has been disappointing the last twice - in the Great St Wilfred handicap and then at York back against his own age group when he was always behind - but he makes a little EW appeal based on his previous two efforts - at Epsom when he hung badly right around Tattenham Corner and raced wide before running on well to finish second to Indian Creek, who won a Series Final on his next start at Windsor - and then at Newmarket in a 3YO class 2 handicap when going down by a neck to one who was completing a hat-trick and had the benefit of a good 5lb claimer on board. It takes a leap of faith to support him after the last twice and he may find a race of this nature too demanding at this stage of his career, but if he can get back to that previous form, he's not without hope. Baltic Voyage, 1pt EW @ 10-1, 5.00 Newbury Baltic Voyage seemed to appreciate racing on soft ground when winning at Ripon (10f) in July, and though he beat mainly exposed opposition he seemed to win with a bit in hand, and the second has won a lower grade handicap since. He hasn't gone on in two runs since, but he might have found the competition too hot at Glorious Goodwood in a 0-104, and last time at Sandown on better ground he might have done too much too soon. He drops back into class 4 company here and is down in trip to a mile, so while he has to prove himself at the distance, he's not had many chances on this sort of ground. Flip Mode, 1pt EW @ 40-1, 8.30 Wolverhampton (4 PLACES) I'm going to have a speculative pick on Flip Mode, who hasn't shown much this season since returning from a 668 day break and his mark has fallen 18lb, but he might have been finding the ground quick enough on occasions. Flip Mode has only raced three times previously on the AW, including twice over C/D when he has shown enough to suggest he can be competitive in this lowly grade, so while he needs to show some ability remains, hopefully a surface switch and first-time blinkers can prompt a better effort. |
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This time last year I was pushing for 200 pts profit on my selection thread, but this time around I've struggled to get out of first gear.
Let's examine where it all went Pete Tong today... Sirona was caught 3-wide from her outer draw but was still one of five to pull away, however, having briefly looked like she might hang on for a place, she faded to finish fifth. Dream For Gold was up with the pace until around 1.5f out before feeling the pinch against his elders and fading to finish 10th. It always looked like Baltic Voyage was doing a bit too much in the conditions and he didn't see his race out as well as some. Nothing again from Flip Mode who has struggled since returning from a long absence, so unless a bit of soft ground can help him, hard to say anything positive. Running P/L: +16.41 pts |
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Day 157
Lot Of Joy, 1pt EW @ 33-1, 4.10 Curragh (6 PLACES) Lot Of Joy seemed to do very well to finish third in this race last year on yielding ground when drawn 29, considering she had a wide trip, made a move from over four furlongs out to go after the leaders, and having led under two furlongs out, stuck to her task well once headed a furlong out. The concern is what sort of form she's in now, because she wasn't great over hurdles afterwards, and although she's recorded RPRs in the 90s in a couple of runs back on the level this season, she's finished comfortably held. Another concern would be if the ground turned really testing. She's been weak in the betting this morning, but a chance is taken at the odds, being just 2lb higher than for last year's effort in this, and she has a low draw this time. Ebony Maw, 1pt EW @ 10-1, 5.40 Hamilton (3 PLACES) With a few firms offering three places, I'm going to take a chance on Ebony Maw, who hadn't been in any form this season, however, he wasn't without market support at Newcastle five days ago when he shaped with more encouragement to finish a keeping on 5th of the ten runners. This will be the first time he's run in a class 6 handicap on turf, and he should be fine on the ground having finished runner-up in a couple of handicaps last autumn off higher marks on soft / heavy ground. |
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Lot Of Joy had a nice trip round the inner and was produced to have every chance in the straight but couldn't go with the principals, so either that's as good as she is now or the ground found her out.
Ebony Maw was keen enough held up off a steady pace and then looked to be going nowhere in the straight while hanging right, but eventually found his stride up the hill and kept on to snatch third place close home. Running P/L: +15.41 pts |
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Day 158
Wurkin Ninetofive, 1pt EW @ 12-1, 4.05 Hamilton (3 PLACES) Wurkin Ninetofive ran well to finish third over C/D in July on good to soft, when she was one of three to pull away, in a slightly lower grade than today's. She hasn't built on this in three runs since at other tracks, but she reportedly lost her action at Ayr (5f, g-s), and as a daughter of Fast Company, she might have found the ground quick enough the last twice at Thirsk (6f, good) and Carlisle (7f, g-f). It's a concern she may find this higher grade too strong for her, but a chance is taken with a few firms offering three places, and hopefully a return to these conditions can prompt a better effort. Genevieve, 1pt EW @ 18-1, 5.15 Hamilton (4 PLACES) Genevieve has shaped on more than one occasion as though there may be a better effort in her at a lowly level, including in a couple of runs over 6f at Ayr on easy ground in July, when not beaten far on either occasion. She might have been finding 5f on the sharp side in some of her runs since, and last time out when back up in trip over today's C/D, it's likely the ground was quick enough for her, though she did make a little late-headway. Genevieve is out of the handicap here and could probably do without the ground drying out, but hopefully has an each-way squeak if this pans out well for her. Alfred Cove, 1pt EW @ 18-1, 7.00 Wolverhampton (4 PLACES) Alfred Cove has run well in defeat at this track on a couple of occasions, but last time, when I selected him, wasn't one of them, when he was again slowly away and never in it. Tony Carroll runs two others in this, notably Under Curfew with Oisin Murphy booked, and the draw gods haven't been kind to Alfred Cove, but I'm going to give him another chance with Neil Callan taking over in the plate. |
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 Unlucky there  George gl …. |
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Yes Virgin, a good ride from Callan to get Alfred Cove (25-1 SP) out and across from his wide draw, but after rallying to get the better of his stablemate, one emerged from the pack to do them both. As Captain Darling once famously said...Bugger.
Wurkin Ninetofive put in a woeful shift. Genevieve was well positioned on meeting the rising ground but couldn't go with the principals and finished a well held 5th. Running P/L: +15.41 pts |
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Day 159
Mc Loven, 1pt EW @ 16-1, 2.25 Lingfield MC Loven didn't look short of pace when dropped to 5f here on the turf course (g-f) for his second start, when caught only close home by Tenhotfourcrazy, who had the benefit of the stands' rail and a 3lb claim, and they meet again here with the selection 10lb better off when claims are taken into consideration, though they are both unfancied for this. Mc Loven only scrambled home at odds of 4-11 when winning losing his maiden-tag at Wolverhampton early last month, since when he has left Kevin Philippart De Foy, so it remains to be seen which way he goes for his new yard following a short break, and this looks quite competitive, but a chance is taken at the odds with him still being with him still being open to improvement after just three starts and having a handy draw to work from here. Hoornblower, 1pt EW @ 28-1, 3.35 Lingfield (4 PLACES) I'm going to have a speculative pick on Hoornblower, now he's back on the AW. It looked a good effort from him when he was second over the stretch-mile at Wolverhampton in March to Pianters Palette, who has won three times since and is now rated in the low-90s, and back in fourth was Peace Man, who's been a big improver on turf this season and is now rated over one hundred. The concern is that Hoornblower hasn't gone on since, including on his only AW start since and handicap debut at Kempton in April, when he was reported to have run too freely and stopped quickly. His three runs on turf have come in maiden races and he has offered little, including last time at Bath when a drop in trip to 5.5f looked unsuitable. It takes a leap of faith to support him at this stage, but the return to a synthetic surface may help and his mark has been dropped 10lb from his initial rating. He does have form over today's C/D having run well to finish third on his debut last November. Nonsuch Lad, 1pt EW @ 14-1, 4.25 Nottingham (4 PLACES) Nonsuch Lad's latest effort, which came over 10f at Leicester (g-s) in reapplied cheekpieces (retained her), probably wanted marking up having been drawn widest and fared best of the prominent racers, in a race where the first three home had been held up, particularly as the pace-setters seemed to get racing plenty soon enough. He's up in grade for this Grassroots Series Middle Distance Handicap, but he's proven on soft ground and can race off a one pound lower mark than when winning at Sandown in this month last year. Luke Catton, who was aboard when the pair won at Doncaster last season, is back in the plate and takes off a handy 5lb. |
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Top bombing WD George
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Some totals I keep to compare Bsp with your Sp results. Your followers could increase their stakes when the selections fit into winning price ranges...
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Cheers 'ace.
Hoornblower, who was sent off at a Betfair SP in the 90s, was dropped in on a day when the surface was riding quick and it didn't look easy to come from off the pace, but he did catch the eye finishing his race off well without ever being a threat to the principals. Nonsuch Lad was keen enough given the testing ground and wasn't able to make any impression at the business end. Running P/L: +33.01 |
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Wd George
gl …. |
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Nice winner GB
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Thanks Virgin & Mad'
Day 160 Millyupdahilly, 1pt EW @ 33-1, 2.00 Bellewstown (4 PLACES) I'm going to take a flyer on Millyupdahilly, who I thought ran better than the bare result on her second start for her current yard over 10.5f at Dundalk back in January, when she had a wide trip and then didn't help her jockey by hanging left in the straight, but only dropped out the places late on. The negatives aren't hard to find here as she's returning from over six months off, has a wide draw and there's no evidence from few chances that she wants this sort of ground, but she's relatively lightly-raced and as she can be free-going the drop in trip to a mile looks worth a try. Tiriac, 1pt EW @ 11-1, 3.05 Goodwood Tiriac ran out an emphatic winner of a 6f Doncaster maiden at the end of last season on heavy ground, and the horses in second and third third from the Fahey and Haggas yards have won this season. However, Tiriac has been a disappointment so far this campaign, including twice on soft ground back in the spring. So he has a bit to prove now, but he might have needed his latest run back at Chepstow (7f, g-s) following a break and wind surgery, and interesting to see if getting back on ground that was being described as "heavy in places" yesterday (though is now being given as soft only), can prompt a better effort. Miss Down Under, 1pt EW @ 16-1, 5.20 Goodwood (4 PLACES) I'm going to give another chance to Miss Down Under now she's back on soft ground. She didn't shape too badly on her return from a break and wind surgery at Sandown (9f, good) two starts back, considering the run might have been needed and she gave up the outside to nobody. I selected her on her latest start back at that track (10f, good) when she was disappointing. She's running in a higher grade than she needs to be in here, but she's 4lb below her last winning mark, and if the plan is go to forward from her low draw then Joe Fanning looks a good booking. |
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well done george nye swinner !
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Wd George
 gl …. |
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Nice placers GB
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Going well George.
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Cheers all
Two seconds and a shocker. Running P/L: +39.21 |
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Day 161
A couple against the field at prices in the Ponte' opener Brother Sebastian, 1pt EW @ 20-1, 2.10 Pontefract (4 PLACES) Cubanista, 1pt EW @ 28-1, 2.10 Pontefract (4 PLACES) Brother Sebastian started his juvenile campaign with a close-up 4th of 18 at Thirsk, which was a promising effort given he looked green throughout. He didn't necessarily progress in two further runs last season but ran respectably and he started this campaign on a mark of 73. This season has been a disappointment so far and his mark has been dropped by a stone, but interesting that he's out again quickly following a down-the-field run on Tuesday when he raced from 10lb out the handicap in one of the Grass Roots Series Finals at Nottingham, and this looks a lot more realistic, dropped into class 6 company and trying 5f for the first time. He has a wide draw to overcome but it may help that the rail is dolled out on the home bend. It looked a big effort from Cubanista to finish second at Yarmouth in June (6f g-f) in first-time blinkers when he pulled well clear with one who would follow up in a higher grade at Newbury. It could be he was just lit up by the headgear as he didn't reproduce the form in four subsequent starts for Pam Sly (including when tried in a visor), nor on his recent stable debut. So he has a bit to prove now, particularly given the change of yard, but he's another dropping in grade and trying trying 5f for the first time, which looks worth a try based on the Yarmouth evidence given he went well clear at one point before being reeled in. Kovu, 1pt EW @ 40-1, 5.00 Southwell (4 PLACES) It probably wasn't the strongest of novice contests that Kovu finished third in at Wetheby (7f, g-f; RPR 68) in June, but there were positives to take from it considering he had a wide trip and is bred for further. He changed yards after and has been disappointing since, but there was a bit more encouragement on his latest start when stepped up in trip to 12f at Thirsk (soft) where he raced prominently for a fair way before weakening in the straight, on ground that might not have been ideal. He has his stamina to prove on this further step up in trip to 14f, but hopefully this ease in grade to a 0-55 on a quicker surface can see him more competitive. King's Crown, 1pt EW @ 9-1, 5.40 Pontefract I'm going to give another chance to King's Crown, who looks well handicapped on a piece of form from a strong handicap back in the spring at the Craven meeting. He ran okay on his next start at Doncaster, but has been a disappointment since, including when I selected him last-time-out at Chester where he threatened to challenge before weakening out of it inside the final furlong. However, he was returning from a break there on ground that might have been slower than the official good-to-soft given the slow time, even allowing for the rail being out. Hopefully that has advanced his fitness, he has the inside stall here, and can race off a mark 9lb lower than for the aforementioned Newmarket effort. |
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Brother Sebastian and Kovu ran shockers.
I was anticipating Cubanista going forward on this drop in trip, but I couldn't even get that right, as he was soon hopelessly positioned, but he did make some eyecatching late-headway inside the final furlong. King's Crown was very weak in the betting (SP 14-1) in the face of strong support for the stable switcher Millbanke and the long-absent Tribal Hunter. There were no excuses for the selection who finished third, and he was probably lucky to fill that position given the argy-bargy in behind, particularly involving Tribal Hunter, who no doubt went into a few trackers. Running P/L: +35.01 |
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Day 162
Dark Island, 1pt EW @ 10-1, 4.55 Newcastle Dark Island still has to prove himself on Tapeta, but a chance is taken at the odds on this drop in grade. He's only 2lb higher than for his penultimate start over 14f in a Sunday Series race at Sandown, where he led everywhere bar the finish line, on what was his first attempt at 14f. He'd also run well on his previous start at Windsor (11.5f) when going down by half-a-length to the prolific Mr Freedom. Dark Island disappointed on his latest start in a Racing League handicap at Wolverhampton, when he might have gone off too fast, but this looks easier down into a class 5 and dropped back in trip to 12.5f. Rumbled Again, 1pt EW @ 11-1, 5.10 Dundalk (4 PLACES) Rumbled Again is of a little interest returned to this C/D having caught the eye on his sole previous visit here in April, when he was denied a clear run at a crucial stage before keeping on well for 4th. He did win on turf two starts later, but the concern now is that he might have gone off the boil for the time being having been disappointing the last twice, however, a chance is taken at a double-figure price with him being unexposed on Polytrack. Turbo Tiger, 1pt EW @ 18-1, 8.30 Newcastle (4 PLACES) I'm going to have a speculative pick on Turbo Tiger, who's returned to Newcastle for the first time since he ran well to finish third over C/D back in February in a 0-72 rating band, and although he might have been flattered to an extent having been well positioned, he did well to make the frame having been keen enough. He's had his chances since in lower grades, mainly at Wolverhampton where he's made the frame twice, including on his latest start when last seen over two months ago in first-time blinkers (retained here). The negatives aren't hard to find as he may need the run following his break, he doesn't always help himself by racing keenly, and Cam Hardie has opted to ride a stablemate, but interesting to see if this course can bring out a better effort in him. |
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Wd George gl …. |
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Ta Virgin.
Unfortunately the other 2 failed to make the frame. Dark Island tried to get away from the opposition in the straight but was reeled in before the furlong marker. Turbo Tiger was a search party job. Running P/L: +32.21 |
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By:
Day 163
Earlofthecotswolds, 1pt EW @ 22-1, 2.05 Chester Earlofthecotswolds is a 9YO now who hasn't been at his best on his last three starts, but he wasn't entirely disgraced on the latest of them at Goodwood (2m, good) when returning from a 3-month break, under a change of tactics from his usual prominent style, when it didn't look easy to come from off the pace. The form received a boost when the runner-up won the Cesarewitch Trial on her next start. If the plan is to revert back to his usual forcing tactics, than that could be tricky with other potential pace-setters in opposition, notably Emiyn who has the inside draw and made all in this race last year, but a chance is taken at the prices. Ae Fond Kiss, 1pt EW @ 14-1, 3.45 Chester I'm going to give another chance to Ae Fond Kiss, who perhaps has been shaping better than the bare result on occasions when not always having the rub of the green. Her latest effort at Bath when stepped up to 11.5f was disappointing but she might have found the ground quick enough and didn't have the pace to get involved in what was a bunch finish with just over two lengths covering the first six home. Ae Fond Kiss is racing in a higher grade than she needs to be in here, being rated only 58 and this being a 61-80 in which she has to race from out of the handicap, so she will need to improve for this marked step up in trip to 14.5f, but that's possible as her dam was a three-time winner at two miles on the AW and also finished runner-up in the 2 mile & 4.5f handicap held at Glorious Goodwood. |