WD Andrew

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1UwpOM0chTzuOlSQ-mY0jLuxfVWUpxQE_9bbFgLu1dfc/edit#gid=1437076173

Good morning Guys,

Start of the 3-day July meeting at Newmarket this afternoon although i wasn't overly enamoured with the card and only 2 runners rated over 110. No doubt Aiden and Ryan will be amongst the winners and probably leading trainer and jockey respectively over the meeting, a common occurrence in festivals these days. Having said this, although they have a favourites chance in the opener (1.50) with Tower Of London, i was surprised to see he is currently a 1.84 chance generally, far too short, at least to my eyes. I appreciate the recent improvement made and maybe punters are using stablemate Paddington as a template and expecting this one to go on to much better things, just as he did, but i'm not convinced yet. Won well LTO and the winning time was good to be fair, but it was a handicap and ridden by a 7lb claimer. Not so sure i want to lay it, but i will have a small win bet on Saint George  (currently trading @ 5.40) who is rated on the same 109 and was runner-up to the unbeaten St Gregory in the Queens Vase at Royal Ascot last month. Steps back in trip by a furlong but this may be a positive.

Irrespective of today's racing, i want the heavens to open for the Falmouth tomorrow after backing Via Sistina @ 9/4 albeit a sensible stake. Watering has added 12mm and 8mm in the previous couple of days and showers are forecast today and tomorrow so i'm hopeful that it could be good to soft at least.

Changing sports to tennis and this was my post before the start of Wimbledon (in italics).

Iga Swietek looked a decent bet at ante -post odds against for the French Open, a surface she excels on, but not so Wimbledon, at least not this year as she really hasn't got to grips with the faster surface, even though it has slowed in recent years (balls are different today as well). I would actually lay her after a few rounds when she's beaten off much lesser rivals.

The Mens is basically Novak Djokovic's to lose without Roger and Nadal, Wimbledon is the only grass tournament he plays these days and hasn't been beaten there since 2017, winning the final on 4 occasions (2020 was cancelled due to covid) and 7 in total. Apart from Carlos Alcatraz there isn't a lot of competition in the mens game at the moment, and he's quite possibly the best of all time. Carlos gave him a good run at Roland Garros, but he probably doesn't have the required grass experience to be able to win at Wimbledon yet (as Iga). Of course, age catches up with us all, he's 36 now, albeit still a superbly fit athlete, and the young Carlos is only 20 and will eventually have his measure one day. Will it be in 2023, i doubt it, but you can back Novak at 1.71 and trade it prior to the final for a profit, or let it ride.

The Womans is very open and there's often a surprise winner. Apart from being a layer of Iga Swietek i would have a small win bet on Aryna Sabalenka who has a very powerful serve and will be suited to the surface. She made the semi's in 2021, but was not allowed to play in 2022 due to the ban on Belarusian players. She's been in good form in 2023, winning the Australian open, albeit surprisingly beaten in the French semi's amongst the slam tournaments. At odds of 7.4 she could be an EW play.

Iga Swietek is out now (she was 6/4 on the day) Sabalenka plays in the semi-finals this afternoon as the new favourite (@ 2.40) as is Novak who plays tomorrow. Unfortunately, i didn't follow my own advice to the full, i did consider laying Swiatek in the quarter-final, but couldn't really see her losing so thought i would after she won it (she was beaten 2-1). I will let my Sabalenka bet run (only a few tenners) at least to the final and decide with Novak on the day as i really think he takes a lot of beating.

Good luck and have a nice Thursday all.   

PHS

Thanks, i assume you were referring to Sunday.

Happysandwich 

Thanks for your Happy Monkey update and good luck. I've been mega busy recently, but i'll send you an email at the weekend. A few of us are going to Goodwood next month if you're interested, although i guess it's far to travel for you.

No Andrew

Iga Swietek looked a decent bet at ante -post odds against for the French Open, a surface she excels on, but not so Wimbledon, at least not this year as she really hasn't got to grips with the faster surface, even though it has slowed in recent years (balls are different today as well). I would actually lay her after a few rounds when she's beaten off much lesser rivals.

I kept it cryptic to see if anyone else noticed. No response

add Crack Of Light -7.12 Longchamps

Thanks Alan. Mucho interesting.

Hard luck at the sales Alan but good luck tmrw!

Andrew,

Finding a jockey is always a problem on a day with six flat meetings and the current rule that they can only ride at one. Our regular riders are all in action elsewhere, but quite why someone like Hector Crouch is prevented from coming to Salisbury after riding at Ascot, I really don't understand. Not suggesting it should be allowed every day, but a relaxation of the rule on a busy Saturday would help.

Fahy is with Clive Cox and in much the same sort of role as, for example, Rab Havlin at the Gosden yard. If he's good enough for Clive, he's good enough for us.

PM me if you want to hedge any of your Guineas bet off Andrew.  Looks a Good Un.

…… and we’re expecting a big smile and a wave from the winners enclosure from you.

Just ran out of it by last years winner going in again, but a decent run. Incidentally Alan i see that in Ireland jockeys are riding at 2 meetings a day.

Thanks gents, another tough performance in the conditions that suit him so well. Jockey was very positive about him, said he responded well when challenged and then, as we saw, fought back after looking booked for 4th.

A couple of UK jockeys managed to ride at two meetings on Friday - Marquand and Moore flew from Newmarket to Longchamp. So flying to France is safe, but driving to Salisbury isn't!

You must be pleased with 2nd place prize money and unlikely to go up in the weights sh hd and 1L back to the 3rd and 4th.

Good morning Guys,

Many thanks for the posts, appreciated as always.

A poor day for me yesterday, 3 bets without a return, albeit one was a only small win stake in the July Cup. It looked to be going well in the tennis with the odds-on favourite Ons Janbeur going 4-2 up in the opening set, but it appears the expectation of being a 'figurehead' of African and Arab female sports got the better of her. Once she lost the set, she never really looked like getting back into it, even against an inferior opponent. This was her 3rd grand slam final loss and if Timeform did tennis, the 'squiggle' would be associated with her.

I should have heeded my initial post a couple of weeks ago with the comment 'The Womans is very open and there's often a surprise winner'. The days of  buying money with Williams, Graf and Navratilova are long gone.

As for the lay of Shaquille, not much to be said, a risky lay of course and another case of not heeding my own words, after Ascot i posted he could take some beating in the July Cup. Fair play to the horse and connections, a sprinting star in a year when we need one after the retirement of Battaash. I lost a few bob, but it was deserved.

A losing day, but it wasn't all bad, City Of Troy won impressively (i didn't back him) and my AP bet for next years 2000 Guineas is certainly looking better now, i also backed a stablemate Ylang Ylang for the 1000 (10/1) with a small EW double. Very early days of course and look what happened to Auguste Rodin.

Over at Chantilly this afternoon it's the G2 Prix Robert Papin (1.33) won by some familiar names in the past including Arazi and Divine Proportions to name a couple. GB/Irish runners have a good record here, in fact they have won the previous 9 runs, but i doubt they will make it 10 even though AOB and Amy Murphy have a runner in a poor turn-out of only 5.

My favourite French trainer/Jockey combination look to have a very decent filly in Ramatuelle who won a G3 impressively LTO by an eased down 5L in a fast time LTO. Winner of 2/3, the highest rated 2 year old filly over there (equates to 106) and was only touched off by the best 2 year old, unbeaten colt Beauvatier (on 107). Has won over 6f and on the course over 5f. Good to soft not an issue. Receives the 3 lb allowance from 2 main rivals

The 5/6 available earlier has gone and it looks like 4/5 best at the moment, not for everyone, but it will take a good one to beat her and i expect her to win.

Hopefully her and Novak Djokovic (AP bet) do the business to at least recover some losses.

Staying in France, i think there was a potential Arc winner at Longchamp on Friday in Feed The Flame showing a very impressive turn of foot and winning in a fast time. I don't think the double figure odds will last long, even though he was beaten by Ace Impact in his penultimate run. I guess both will go for the trials and i certainly want to be there, i think the French 3 year-olds of both sexes are better than ours.

Good luck and have a nice Sunday all.

Alan

Thanks for the jockey explanation post and WD with Eagle Court last night, he ran well and 2.7K for the runner-up pays a few bills. Back to Salisbury in August next time out ?

I thought the sole meeting a day rule for jockeys was due to Covid and had actually been rescinded.

Glasgow Calling

Sure, why not.

I actually checked on Sportsbook for the cash out option earlier, albeit only out of curiosity. I have 2 win bets on City Of Troy, each £15 @ 16/1. The cash out offered for the win is £30 in total, and for the double £20. No cash out on Ylang Ylang yet of course.

I think i will pass.

It was a bit of luck i backed them, they ran on consecutive days at the Curragh meeting, both were impressive, but liquidity on BF for the AP was poor so i checked Sportsbook, who were on a par with most. I was surprised the odds on City Of Troy held up, even last week, but AOB has River Tiber as well.

Good evening Guys,

Only the one horse selection, Ramatuelle who was an impressive winner of the G2 Prix Robert Papin at Chantilly. Easy enough to pick, and very heavily backed this afternoon (ISP 1/2f) but matched at over 2.0 on here early morning (not by me unfortunately) although i managed to back at odds between 1.66 and 1.73. Always up with the pace and when she quickened at the furlong pole it was game over and she pulled away effortlessly to win by 4L eased down and in a decent time. She's not a large framed filly, but certainly got an engine.

The Prix Morny at Deauville awaits and although she will meet better rivals there, including the highest rated French 2 year old Beauvatier and could take a bit of beating as she's clearly improved since going down by a head to the latter 3 runs ago. After that it will probably be Arc weekend as there's not much else for her unless she goes for the G3 Prix Eclipse at Maisons-Laffitte in September.

I watched the race, but not the tennis that was probably a blessing, albeit apparently a very good final. I lost my ante-post bet, but it was covered by Ramatuelle anyway. A losing weekend overall, but it's part of the game. Maybe the European heatwave is affecting my judgement, but i'm certainly not complaining about the weather, in fact i'm looking at going away for a vacation somewhere, preferably coastal.

Enjoy what's left of the evening all.

Second again

Many thanks for the generous offer, leave it with me while i think about it and i'll get back to you.

Seriously, i don't plan to trade the bets anyway unless they both went short of course. I don't bet AP on the classics that often anyway, especially 10 months away, it was only the fact City Of Troy was 16/1 and then i noticed Ylang Ylang at 10/1 so the odds appealed. The latter is actually 12/1 with Lads and Korals now.

3 pages back to find this

Afters Andrew. Enjoy the sun.

Good morning guys and greetings from Castelldefels, Spain

A nice beach resort, not so touristy as some in this area and only 20 minutes by train from Barcelona. I've been here before, even in the same hotel, SB BCN. Not doing much of anything, certainly not work related, except for laying by a pool, catching the sun, a few beers, reading and eating locally in the evening, although my daughter will amble in Barcelona with her boyfriend and mother today. I've done the city tourist bit, including the Camp Nou tour, but i will probably go before returning to München. We came at the right time, the receptionist mentioned it has been extremely hot recently, but it will be max 30c today.

I didn't see any racing yesterday, but read in the RP that Savethelastdance was matched @ 1000 on here, you need nerve to lay at those odds even though it must have obviously looked an also ran. I guess she's Doncaster St Leger bound in time, if i owned her i would also consider the Prix Royal Oak (French equivalent) or even the Melbourne Cup, both over longer trips that could suit. Maybe the Prix Cadran next year, although AOB has another for this race in 2023 and 2024.

This afternoons cards are reduced by 50% virtue of the weather, although i didn't really like anything in Ireland. I often put up a selection in France and to a much lesser extent, Germany, but with respect to the latter i don't have any idea who wins the group 3 at Hoppegarten, although the likely favourite India appears to have a bit in hand.

Over in France at La Test de Buch (near Bordeaux) there is an interesting, unbeaten 3 year old filly Secretive in the listed race (3.25). I was surprised the RP didn't publish the field for this race, but did so with the 2.50. The form of her debut win over 7f at Deauville is very good in the context of this race with the 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th and 6th all winning since, and in a few cases more than once, including Sauterne (3rd) rated 109 who was runner up in the G1 Prix Jean Prat a couple of weeks ago. Trip not an issue, but if there is a negative, she hasn't run since March, so fitness could be. Well regarded by the trainer, she could be an EW bet, currently best priced at 6/1 with Bet365, but should be better on here later.

In the opener at Newton Abbot (2.35) i thought the betting would be closer between the 2 principles Max Of Stars and Hourless. The latter beat his main rival at Hexham recently, but this afternoons sharper course may suit Max Of Stars better, he made all and won in canter over CD next time out.

Changing topic, as there are a few aerospace fans here, some may have noticed my new profile photo (different variants before) of the Saab GlobalEye AEW&C aircraft at RIAT (Royal International Air Tatoo) in RAF Fairford/Gloucestershire recently. The show is the biggest of its type in the world, albeit not a trade show aka Paris where it was on static and flying display last month.

The platform is the Bombardier 6000 aircraft, albeit significantly modified internally and externally by Saab, including installation of their own radar system Erieye on the fuselage, and another, Sea-spray within the large fairing forward of the wing box. The other unit aligning with the main door is a FLIR camera for wide area detection and thermal imaging. The aircraft is part of an order to Dubai Air Force (some already delivered) hence the temporary Saab decals concealing the dual language UAE Air Force livery and Swedish registration.

The same radar systems are installed on the Saab 340/2000 platform (also converted from civil) for Saudi Arabia and Pakistan Air Forces as turboprops are actually better than jets for some special mission operations. In all 3 cases Saab beat off stiff competition from USA, but the system is considered amongst the best overall for air, sea and land detection, although the US would disagree. It's also been offered to the UK RAF as a potential alternative to the Boeing 737 Wedgetail, but military aircraft sales are always politically biased and never based on engineering prowess. I would return to Saab like a bullet if a contract was signed, different spec etc, but personally i have my doubts it will ever happen, although Finland AF are also interested, so never say never. I spent almost 6 years (not full time) working on this aircraft during my 3rd stint in the Linköping, Sweden office, my last, best and favourite project with them before another temporary consultancy assignment in Germany. Mind you, 'temporary' has turned out to be 4 years and still going.

Good luck and have a nice Sunday all.

PHS

Thank you.

I thought Art Power, my only play was a bet at odds against in a soft G2 field. 8 wins, 5 of them in Ireland where he is unbeaten, including 4 at the Curragh. Maybe he simply loves travelling, just as the guy typing these words does . Not quite top class (rated 114 yesterday) never won a G1, but is running better since being gelded, if a little inconsistent. Soft going could change this later in the year, who knows.

Listed race for 2yo fillies at Sandown tomorrow, 3:15, with Soprano a short priced favourite after finishing third over 6F at Royal Ascot. But there are a couple of negatives for me. First is the choice of a 7F race, as she was declared for the 6F Grp2 at the Nmkt July meeting a fortnight ago (non runner on a self cert) and has an entry in the 6F Grp3 at Ascot on Saturday. I've long worked on the basis that backing 6F 2yo form on a first attempt at 7F is a long term losing proposition. One extra furlong doesn't sound much, but it's quite a different physical test for a young horse and it's an additional concern that the trainer seems unsure about her best trip.

Second is the rather surprising stat that George Boughey has a career record of 0/45 in 2yo Listed and Group races. So surprising that I've just gone back and double checked after writing it down. It's 0/17 in Listed and 0/25 in Group races.

Neither of those negatives will prevent Soprano from winning and she could well outclass this opposition. But they're certainly enough to make me look elsewhere for the winner and consider a lay of the favourite. I was at Newbury when Shuwari won on debut after drifting in the market because she looked short of full fitness beforehand. The one concern for her is the draw in stall 1, which might be a problem if the ground gets soft enough to persuade the jockeys to race away from the inside rail.

Good morning Guys,

Back in an overcast München (currently 16c) after my break in Castelldefels, Spain where it was between an idyllic 28c and 31c, a nice relaxing time in a small beach resort i know and like. I didn't do much, or go into Barcelona this time, instead i spent most of the time in the hotel garden/pool areas venturing into the town in the evening. I learnt on my last day that Lionel Messi lives there, although he's playing in Miami these days. I can recommend the resort and the hotel for those planning a vacation anytime, it's much cheaper than München as well. 

Now for a few days in the office before flying to Heathrow next Wednesday for Goodwood the following day, hoping my current favourite filly wins the Nassau.

Only a few bets during the past week and i didn't really look at the RP much either, only reading a few articles. Run of the mill cards this afternoon and i'm not really interested in much, but there is a runner in Ireland i'm interested in, albeit not to back. Readers will know i have a few ante-post bets, 2 singles and a double on the 2000/1000 guineas next year, City of Troy and Ylang Ylang, both trained by AOB. Not a bet i usually do, but odds of 16/1 and 10/1 were appealing at the time after debut wins. City Of Troy has won impressively since (now favourite for the 2000) and hopefully Ylang Ylang wins in similar fashion at Leopardstown (5.12) so her current odds (still 10/1) will make my bet look promising.

In the opener at Sandown, i thought the likely favourite Libra Tiger was worth a lay and this will be my play this afternoon. Since winning on the AW in January off a mark of 68, he's been in-and-out in 9 races within a 3 lb range (68-71) and a little frustrating for connections with a sequence 3 runner-up positions, the last one off 67, all over 6f. One paced, drops back to 5f this afternoon and i'm not sure this is a positive even allowing for a stiff track. Soft going may be an issue based on a previous run, although it was good to soft LTO and previous form in class 4 is a negative.

Good luck and have a nice Thursday all.

Alan

Thanks for your Soprano/George Boughey input, annoying though it must be considering she may not run this afternoon. A surprising GB stat with 2 year-olds in Black type races, i would never have thought this.

PHS

Thanks. I thought the sharp course would suit Max Of Stars (11/8) better and i guess a few others shared that view as her main rival was the original favourite. On the opposite side of the coin, the French filly Secretive (ISP 7/1) was disappointing, but as mentioned she had been off the track since March, so maybe she needed the race.