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Andrews 2023 Lay Thread
Andrews 2023 Lay Thread
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PS -If you want to fly in a Spitfire for 30 minutes
Just the £6k But i noticed they have another base in the Cotswolds where the charge is only £3k Tally HO  |
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VWD Andrew
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Jes! Quote actually worked this time.
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..and presumably, in para 5, I assume it should say WWII.
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Well done Andrew, GREAT LAY..
I was listening in the garden and the presenter gave it as her Nap.. Good one.. |
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Good afternoon Guys,
Many thanks for the posts. The suggested lay Deed Pole (9/4f) was unplaced, and Charlie Johnston's runner Mickey Mongoose 250-mile journey from Yorkshire didn't faze him as he won easily. A proftable post, but not for me as i didn't get chance to play either. A very busy morning and i haven't seen the RP today, although i did check France Galop for Sundays Prix Diane latest forfeit stage (final decs tomorrow). Currently 15 runners after Elusive Princess was supplemented yesterday. No major withdrawls and my current favourite filly Blue Rose Cen best priced 7/2 with the books. ............... A link to the RAF C-130 fly past occurring as i type these words. https://www.forces.net/services/raf/raf-bids-farewell-hercules-final-retirement-flypast-takes-skies .............. PHS Thanks for correcting my errors (lack of concentration/checking). WWI should obviously be WWII, the previous war could have been won a lot sooner if we had Spitfires then. Holly was auto-text, i know she spells it Hollie. ImsoLuckyLucky Instead of an expensive flight, there's always the Biggin Hill Heritage Hanger where there are many Spitfires to see, as well as a Hurricane and a Me 109. |
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ImsoLuckyLucky
Instead of an expensive flight, there's always the Biggin Hill Heritage Hanger where there are many Spitfires to see, as well as a Hurricane and a Me 109. We went to RAF Cosford a couple of years ago and saw a few there. Handy for visiting Ironbridge at the same time. |
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Certainlty cheaper at £49
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Good morning Guys,
With one exception, a racing free day for me as i'm making use of decent summer weather in southern Germany and off to Lake Chiemsee again. 30c this afternoon and temperatures up to 33c are forecast for the next 4 days. Typical Sunday afternoon cards in GB/Ireland, but quality via group races in Germany, France and Italy where Hollie Doyle has only her 2nd ride at the course after winning the Italian Oaks last Sunday. I wouldn't have a clue who's going to win there and i don't have any interest in the Dortmund card, but i do with the G1 Prix Diane at Chantilly (3.05). Regular readers of this thread know i'm a big fan of the Christopher Head trained Blue Rose Cen a filly i've backed on her 4 previous runs. She's the best miler of her age/sex in France in my opinion and looked a good thing in the Poule d'Essai des Pouliches (1000 guineas) LTO, one of the reasons for me going there, but not necessarily so today. Up in trip, away from Longchamp where she's 4/4, faster going and it looks a very good field including 3 unbeaten fillies. The track shouldn't be an issue and although breeding doesn't scream out 10.5f, the trainer is confident she will stay. Has a plum draw in 1 (generally races up with the pace) and this is a big advantage at Chantilly, the sweeping bend there is long and her main rivals are drawn 7, 11 and 12, although pace and early position will have an impact of course. She has a good turn of foot, even if it's not immediate acceleration. Hopefully she can hold a good position early and kick in the long home straight about 300 meters from home, from then it's a case of is anything in the chasing pack better than her. Jannah Rose was an intended runner in the Poule d'Essai des Pouliches, but took the easier St Alary instead. She won well enough, but i wasn't overly impressed. Roaring Lion has an obvious chance, as does Pensee Du Jour and don't rule out the AOB runner EW at a price who could improve over this trip, but whoever wins is very good. I had a good few bob on her at Longchamp (and ante-post 2/1) but today is different. A couple of AP bets at 3/1 (she was actually trading over 4.3 on here earlier this morning) and that's it, she doesn't owe me anything anyway. If she wins my cheering will be heard, i like the filly and think she could do a 'Zarkava' by winning the Boussac, Poule d'Essai des Pouliches and Diane treble, not many have. I had a tentative plan to go to Chantilly and then opening day of the Paris Air show tomorrow, but unfortunately my workload is such that i can't take the time off. It's the same for Royal Ascot, i was there with several forum posters on the Tuesday last year and although a few are going on Friday, i will be doubtful. My next trip over to GB could be for the Eclipse in early July. Good luck and have a nice Sunday all. PHS I've been to a few aircraft museums in England, but not Cosforth. There's an excellent aircraft museum at Malmen, just outside Linköping, almost certainly the best in Scandinavia, albeit not much competition of course. Not just Saab aircraft as would be expected, but a good variety including a Spitfire. The Swedish RAF also had Spitfires (with Griffon engines) 50 in fact, albeit after WWII and were not fitted with any Armaments as they were used for reconnaissance, primarily against Russia. Although they were neutral during WWII, the force was a decent size post war with over 800 aircraft including Junkers and Heinkels from Germany. Sweden also had prisoner of war camps for all flight crews that were shot down over the Baltic and made it to shores, but they were treated very well and conditions were closer to 'spas' than internment camps according to reports. |
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Good morning Andrew.Thanks for your summary on the Diane which I also give a chance to Never Ending Story. I have enjoyed the conversations regarding aircraft recently Brian/Yourself . At around 12.45 am today I heard the sound of a plane which I judged to be at around 15 to 20 thousand feet. I immediately consulted Flight Radar24 and it was confirmed as a Hercules from Prestwick/Destination N/A and was climbing in a North East direction.It sounded like a lighter aircraft but I had had a glass of red.
 Good luck to all. |
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Morning Andrew,
Interesting reading as always Dad was in the RAF at Swinderby doing his NS just after the war and went to a few air shows as a kid. Sadly the Biggin Hill Airshow I remember for all the wrong reasons back in 1980 when an American bomber flew past us then disappeared out of sight to be followed by a huge explosion and plumes of smoke rising in the distance. Memory that stuck with me most were gasps of disbelief and silence in the crowd as the announcer carried on unaffected without stopping commentary. Nothing else he could do but to witness it wasn’t nice. |
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good morning Andrew, good luck with Blue Rose Cen today, i will be backing Lindy e/w against her, i think she can get closer over this trip.
i see Vauban declared for Ascot Tuesday with Ryan Moore up, i heard Patrick Mullins saying he is well handicapped, which no doubt hasn't helped the skinny 2/1 price. |
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well done Andrew, she is very good.
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Well done Andrew , didn't see your post until after the race . Shame you can't go to Ascot , it is getting very expensive these days. I used to go every year,but the invention of Betfair pretty much ended that. Be Lucky !
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WD Andrew
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Tommy, 3 RAF Hercules omen1, omen2 and omen3 landed at the plane scrapyard at St Athens yesterday.
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Early Morning Riser. This was today the Hercules was over my home. Where is St Athens? I believe that they were to be in service till the end of the month.
Andrew. Well done today in France. My best fancy today was beaten a nose at 22/1 first at Doncaster  |
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Good afternoon Guys,
Many thanks for the posts, much appreciated as always. Bleu Rose Cen put a gloss on my Father's day outing to Lake Chiemsee yesterday by winning the Prix Diane (ISP 5/2 and PMU 16/5). I wasn't as confident as i was at Longchamp for reasons explained in my post, but i thought she would win. I didn't see the race or result, but when i noticed friends sending WhatsApp messages a few minutes later, i took it as a positive before i knew for certain. If i had watched the race live i wouldn't have been happy to see she missed the break, but thankfully the field didn't cut across in front of her negating all benefits of the inside draw that is a decent advantage at Chantilly. Once she was in 3rd spot behind her stablemate who was making the running it was plain sailing, and she didn't appear to be in any danger in the last 300-350 metres, pulling clear the further she went. The winning time was good, faster than standard by 2.21 secs, in fact i checked back to 1969 and her time has only been bettered once in this race by Treve and was even quicker than Zarkava no less, although i'm not using winning times to suggest she is better, she isn't. Mind you, she's the best 8f-10f 3-year-old filly in Europe to my eyes, but is she an Arc candidate. Breeding suggests not, but she wasn't stopping over 10.5f. Where she goes next is a good question, does she step up in trip for the Prix De Paris where she will meet colts (not for the first time) or wait for the Prix Vermille in September, there isn't anything else (G1) unless she reverts to a shorter trip, that i doubt. Looking at her rating, she's certainly going to be higher than the 114 (UK equivalent) she was on yesterday. Christopher is certainly climbing the training ranks in France and is one of those with modern approach including use of Equimetre data. Whatever he's using, it's working, he trained the only 2 winners on the cards that were fast by standard. I regret not going to Chantilly, but this was known over a week ago due to workload. At least my profit was 100% this time and not reduced by flight and hotel expenses, although i would have backed her on course to compensate for this if i had gone. Having said this, my daughter wants to see Beyonce in Concert this Saturday (Frankfurt) so 30% of my winnings could be taking a walk quite quickly, tickets are not cheap. I guess my other regret is not having a few tenners at 33/1 for the Arc before the Diane, more so how much i go on about her here. Good luck and have a nice Monday. Lucky Thankfully i've never seen an air show crash, something you never forget i can imagine. Blunder I totally agree about racing becoming expensive, i was at Cheltenham on the opening day, almost £110 for a ticket and £7.50 a Guinness. Thankfully Constitution Hill did what we all expected and in the past few years i have generally restricted going to meetings where i think i can win, although this is not set in stone as i was at Newbury for the Greenham earlier this year. I went to opening day of RA last year, but this year is not possible, again due to workload, although looking at the cards i would have preferred to go on Thursday anyway. I will find a conference room at work and watch ITV online when i get chance. Ashleigh Vauban could be thrown in off his flat mark of 101, but i agree 2/1 is short. The same connections were also expected to win tghis race with the well backed Saldier (15/8) in 2021 but he was unplaced. Tommy/Early Morning Riser St Athans is near Cardiff. I wasn't aware the aircraft were going there (broken for spares for sale worldwide probably) but in my opinion this C-130 retirement program is faulted, although nothing surprises me about UK Government decisions in the aerospace industry. The inept Harold Wilson and his cronies cancelled the best strike/reconnaissance aircraft around at the time, the TSR-2 that was years ahead of anything the USA had, this was the start of a decline in our aerospace industry. The UK RAF hierarchy is no better and i sometimes wonder if they know the difference between a bolt and a screw, but as always these decisions are political as well. |
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Good sunny afternoon Guys.
A high of 32c forecast for later with a 2-day heat warning for most of Bavaria issued by the DWD, albeit rain this evening and thunderstorms tomorrow. First day of the Royal Ascot festival, in my opinion the best week of flat racing in UK. Unfortunately, i can't attend this year, although looking at the forthcoming days i would prefer Thursday anyway. This afternoons' card is good, but although there are a few shorties there's only one that i would consider backing, and even then to a sensible stake. At the moment, i've only had a small stake single/multi on 3 runners and i think this will be the extent of my bets this afternoon anyway. A conference room booked at work, so i will be able to watch some of the ITV online coverage. In the opening Queen Anne (2.30) i went for Lusail who was only beaten a head by Coroebus in the SJP here last year (round course). He was a decent 2/3 year-old, but has lost his way a little since, although he hasn't run too badly this year. He needs to improve on recent runs, that's why he's currently odds 44 on here. Marshman is another outsider i played in the Kings Stand (3.40) who is speedy and was only just touched off in a G2 over 5f at Chantilly LTO. Like the previous selection, he has to improve, but this is likely as a lightly raced 3-year-old and is in receipt of the allowances. Odds of 30 are probably about right. Of course, both the above are tentative EW selections, and to be honest i'm not really expecting a return, hence the fun stakes. I added the WPM favourite Bringonthenight (5.00) to the multi and this is the only runner on the card i thought was even close to a bet. Regular readers know i was a big fan of Vauban as a 4-year-old hurdler and he could be thrown in off a mark of 101 (based on a listed win in France) in the finale (6.10). I think he will win and i want him to for sentiment reasons, but i will not be backing him at 5/4. At 5/2 i may have been interested. I think Inclusion, another WPM runner/favourite at Wexford (1.40) is worth a lay on chase debut, although it's drifted a little (currently 3.95). Won a small maiden hurdle LTO but was receiving 22 lb and the form is average at best in the context of this race. I noticed that Blue Rise Cen has been raised to a mark of 53.5 that equates to 117.7 here, although i don't know if this would classed as 117 or 118, maybe Alan can expand on it. Good luck and have a nice Tuesday all. |
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Well done with Inclusion Andrew.
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Good afternoon Guys
Day 2 of Royal Ascot, but only a couple of bets for me this afternoon. The Queen Mary stakes (2.30) looks a very open field with many potentially decent types, albeit no real stand out candidate, but i like the Karl Burke trained, unbeaten Got To Love A Grey even though she could be the 2nd string, at least on jockey bookings. She must have been showing something on the gallops prior to her debut as she was well backed (5/4f) even allowing for the class of race and looked impressive winning by 6L. Upped in grade to listed class next, showing good early speed to win cosily and in a good time. The runner-up has finished 2nd in a Chantilly listed race since. Currently trading around 11.0 and 3.65/3TBP she warrants a small stake. The POW (4.20) is probably the best G1 field assembled this year, with 5 of them rated 121 or over, and within a 2lb range. Not a race for lumping on as pace, tactics, luck in running could all play a big part, but i think My Prospero, although frustrating for punters on occasion, is probably yet to be seen at his best. Ran well to be 3rd, only beaten 0.5L in the Champion stakes last year and may even have been a little unlucky having to be switched. No issues with course, going and trip and with respect to the latter, much better than 8f in the Lockinge LTO. Currently odds of 6.6 for the win (surprised by the drift). I will be laying Luxembourg in this race, i think he's short at 7/4. Doesn't have much in hand of Bay Bridge on Tattersalls GC running LTO, Vadeni clearly didn't give his true running and a slightly shorter trip, better field this afternoon. My favourite 4-year-old hurdler of 2022, Vauban looked to be thrown in off a mark of 101 (based on his listed win in France) in the finale yesterday and was the best backed runner of the day. Those who did may have had cause for concern around the final bend, but once RN pressed the button in the straight the race was as good as over and he hosed up by 7.5L. As mentioned yesterday, i wasn't going to back him at 5/4 (SP evens) but i shouted him home, evoking memories of last year. I guess he will be given a rest now, maybe with the Ebor (August) in mind. You need to be group class to win this race these days and he certainly is, but i think most of us knew this. In the previous 3 years, the Ebor winners were rated 101, 108 and 108; the handicapper will raise him higher next week and my estimate is 112, maybe 113 at a push (no more). Good luck and have a nice Wednesday all. Second Again Thank you. My Ascot single and multi bets were only small stakes for fun and a couple of lays covered these, in fact i made a small profit, but as i mentioned to WhatsApp friends, only enough for a couple of Jamboree bags. |
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Andrew,
I think I'd be tempted by the Goodwood Cup for Vauban, which offers the same prize money (£500K) as the Ebor. If he is raised to 112, and I agree that's the likely mark he'll get, then he's not far behind the leading stayers who lack a star presence so far this year. A mark of 112 in the Ebor would mean he'd carry 10-0, as the conditions set 110 = 9-12 and any rating above 110 is added to the 9-12. So 112 = 10-0, 113 = 10-1 etc. And as the weights for the Ebor are published a week before Goodwood, he couldn't be raised again for running well there and if he won the Goodwood Cup, well who cares about the Ebor! Your question about the mark for Blue Rose Cen, my understanding is that 53.5 kgs would be converted to 118 here. |
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think W Mullins will be treading very carefully with Vauban, if the plan is the Melbourne Cup then winning the Ebor or Goodwood Cup would handicap him out of his main target.
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Good morning all,
Going to stick with the title of the thread and suggest a lay of Elite Status at 2.5 in the Norfolk. Purely a stats lay as no favourite has won in the last 10 years, Burke is 0/4 in the race and the owner has already had 2 winners at RA this year. Touch Wood there will be something in the pack to beat him. Good luck whatever you play or lay today. |
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Ash,
I'm sure Mullins will be careful, but the position in the weights isn't the only criterion for getting a run in the Melbourne Cup. Being in the top 24 in the weights isn't a guarantee, as they have a selection process that takes into account number of wins and prize money won in the last two years, as well as the class of the races won. I can't recall a European runner in the race that hadn't already won a Group race and I doubt if a single win in a handicap would be sufficient for Vauban to be selected. This year, the winners of the Doncaster Cup and the Irish St Leger are guaranteed a place in the field. |
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Thanks, didn't realise he wouldn't automatically get a run being in the weights.
Itv Aussie expert Francesca Cumani suggested he needs to win the Ebor or be placed in the Lonsdale Cup. |
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Morning All,
Just a thought about the Ribblesdale (3:40) this afternoon. Al Asifah dominates the market and the withdrawal of Infinite Cosmos significantly reduces the opposition to her. She makes no appeal to me at the price, as I feel she beat trees last time, visually very impressive, but it's easy to look good in a slowly run race against rivals that lack finishing speed. The first five furlongs of that race were run in around 70s, extremely slow for a race of that grade. Al Asifah ran a very fast final three furlongs, but we won't know until about 3:45 whether she can do the same in a race with a stronger pace. As often happens, the overseas challenger is under estimated - I reckon the danger to Al Asifah comes from the French filly Crown Princesse, a close third in a Grp1 last time. The two that beat her were seen off by Blue Rose Cen in the Prix de Diane, but so were most of that field. She'll need luck in running (they all will in the biggest field for the race this century), but although Mendizabal is a rare visitor to these shores, his record in France is top notch. Even I might be tempted to play each way at the price. |
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Good 'hot' afternoon Guys,
A short post as i'm pushed for time and want to find time to watch the opener at RA (ITV online) this afternoon. I hope our secretary is not checking the conference rooms booking list, my name appears on it 3 times this week. Alan, Ashley and Trusty Many thanks for the posts, much appreciated. I hadn't considered the Goodwood Cup as a potential future race for Vauban this year, he would have to improve to win, but this is likely of course. Kyprios is probably a doubtful runner and as you mentioned Alan, the rest are much of a muchness. As far as the Melbourne Cup is concerned, i vaguely remember reading there are stricter quarantine requirements for European entries now ? Trusty, i wish you luck with the lay, but not too much as i backed Elite Status ante-post a few days ago, albeit a sensible stake, it is a Royal Ascot 2-year-old race after all and who knows how good a few of the others are including the US runner. ES looked the real deal LTO and the RPR/time figures are good, but he's not a good thing by any means; whoever wins is probably a top-class sprinter. When i was looking at potential bets earlier this week, i thought he was probably best of the odds against shorties, albeit without going overboard with the stake. Another was King Of Steel tomorrow, but he will be shorter odds. Royal Ascot handicaps, Heritage or otherwise are minefields and the King George Stakes (3.05) is no exception, so the Charlie Johnston trained Struth is a tentative win and 4/TBP bet for a fun stake at decent odds. You could pick half of the 20-runner field and still not get the winner, but he's lightly raced, improved in 2023 and has a good profile for this race. Finished runner-up to Saint George in a class 2 at Doncaster LTO and this one was subsequently beaten into 2nd by yesterdays' G2 Queens Vase winner Gregory. May try to go from the front. My Royal Ascot bets have been few and low stakes so far (down double figures) but hopefully Elite Status can give me the best financial return since last Sunday. Good luck and have a nice Thursday all. |
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Andrew,
The rules are two weeks in quarantine at an approved centre (approved by the Aussies) here before departure. Then minimum two weeks at Werribee race track, where all international arrivals go. After that they can go to an external training site and race in the three weeks prior to the Cup. Then 48 hrs before the race, a full veterinary check at Flemington, where a horse can be ruled out of the race - no appeal. No worries mate, we love all the overseas raiders winning our biggest race! |
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WD Trusty and Alan
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Wasn't Al Asifah disappointed. I put my faith in Gosden's judgement, should have listened to Alan
 .Interesting that despite all the positive talk by racing media, she drifted like a barge |
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Crown Princesse a prime example of why I dislike each way betting. Puts in a challenge to the winner, using energy to chase her into the final furlong, which then costs her third place, beaten a nose by a filly that had never been in a challenging position.
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Not to mention ridden by Frankie who so very rarely rides out for a place! Very unlucky I thought considering she traded down to near EVS I/R.
I know it seems like hindsight but I generally prefer laying off I/R to e/way betting although that is not a given either these days. |
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I am going to be laying all the certainties today:-
3.05 Little Big Bear 2.06 I know he is clear on ratings but his best ratings are on good ground and two horses have improved ratings for racing on firmer ground, Mischief Magic and Marbaan. Assuming he has trained on and his LTO performance was purely down to the ground Mischief Magic is a huge price at 50/1. Marbaan is ridden by Spencer so unbackable for me. 4.20 Tahiyra 1.77 We won't know until she has run on it but not certain to improve for faster ground and trainer out of form currently. Not sure why Sounds of Heaven is longer than Queen For You. 5.35 King Of Steel 2.24 Plenty of Derby seconds fail to achieve next time out, I am more interested in Artistic Star and Dubai Mile who could turn around the form. |
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Andrew, do we have any hope for Noble Style today, trainer says he has come forward since Newbury and is the best he has been all year, Switch to J Doyle and cheekpieces go on might help.
biggest concern for me is the C Appleby form this week at Ascot. |
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Good morning Guys,
Many thanks for the posts. Alan/Trusty WD with the thoughts on Al Asifahl and lay of Elite Status respectively, unfortunately i didn't take heed although i had already backed the latter ante-post. I was surprised at the drift, i saw 9/4 at one point, but the market got it right in both races. It wasn't necessarily a poor run by Elite Status and i have no doubt he will win again by season end. I suspect Al Asifahi, who was poor, to step down in trip. Thanks for the Flemington quarantine clarification, maybe we should request the same with their sprinters. I agree with the lay on Little Big Bear, as mentioned before, even though he has a bit in hand of his rivals, but he had everything in his favour at Haydock and was it such an impressive run anyway. Y You know i'm a fan of Noble Style, i've always thought he was decent, and although he can be forgiven for his 2000 Guineas run (clearly didn't stay) he was disappointing in a listed race at Newbury LTO. Maybe that's as good as he is and Buick prefers an outsider (James has ridden him before) but maybe the first time cheekpieces will have a positive impact. A CD winner, and he did look good on that debut, but another who has drifted significantly (17.0 earlier) during the previous couple of days. I'm prepared to give him another chance, albeit only for a small win and 3/TBP to retrieve my RA losses so far. Prior to the start of the RA meeting i thought Elite Status and King Of Steel were the 2 most likely to win of the odds against shorties. 1 down, 1 to go. I think the danger is limited recovery time from the Derby run, not his rivals. Once again, the handicaps look a minefield, any bets in these during the week are always few and small, but i will have a tenner EW on Walbank in the 5f finale. He had reasonable form last season, running against the likes of Noble Style and Trillium; forget his season debut run at York, he lost any chance at the start. Drawn in the middle and first time blinkers may bring some improvement. Odds of 36 for the win and 4/TBP over 6. Ashley Thanks, as above . Agreed his RA form this week is not a positive, but the stable had winners elsewhere with a 32% strike rate in the previous 14 days.Good luck and have a nice Friday all. |
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ashleigh not Ashley
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 A long day PHS, unless i'm losing it |