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12 Oct 22
11:32
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Date Joined:
23 May 09
Cant handle the losing runs? Seems to me that this game is all about taking the hits and waiting and waiting and waiting and waiting for the brief happy-time.
A days racing/betting has been calculated so that the middle order will more often than not mess you up? But what is a days racing, no two days are the same.
Be great to hear the views of the Betfair Horse Racing shrewdies
on here.
A days racing/betting has been calculated so that the middle order will more often than not mess you up? But what is a days racing, no two days are the same.
Be great to hear the views of the Betfair Horse Racing shrewdies
on here.
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Replies: 165
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One of the problems with systems that folk just stick with it start to finish rather then only jumping in when the system dips? Anyone do this? I have a system that 9/10 makes a small profit at the start of the days racing but by the end of the day 4/10 makes a loss.
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Steve, the first thing to remember is not many make it pay enough/long term on pre-race betting on horses, this is fact.
I think the primary issue is the amount of bets in any given period and the choice of races punters bet on, those betting on a zillion races per day will never win in the long run. Poor quality fields, low class races are only for specialists who know the game inside out and maybe have connections. Multiples are for those who only want entertainment. There are no guaranteed systems or Holy Grails, but due respect to my friend Happysandwich who is doing very well with his MO this year (i didn't expect it to be honest and he knows this). Personally if i'm lumping on (aka Baaeed bets) it will only be in group or graded class races. I may not know who wins on here, but i have a very good idea who doesn't. Could i punt for a living ? I doubt it to be honest (different mindset is required) and thankfully i don't have to. I did try it to a certain extent back in time by backing only 'good things' (aka Frankel, Sprinter Sacre and Altior) but i always had the safety net of a decent salary, and if the great one had lost as a 4 year old it would have taken a lot of winning back. Thank God for the aerospace industry  |
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Think you can some it up in 2 words, compulsion and greed.
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It has been said more times than I can remember and is still true today as it was five decades ago when someone first told me, the vast majority of punters do not possess the will power to discipline themselves with regard to their plays, which leads to their eventual downfall.
You only have to read the threads on here to ascertain who has an idea of how to be successful and who are guessers, chasers, bluffers and compulsive players. It is much more difficult in terms of options these days as bookies are no go areas for most clued up players, however the exchange whether you like it or not is a useful tool to have available to you, albeit most of your plays have to be made near the off time. |
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All my accounts with the high street and online "bookmakers" have been closed!
Sadly, I'm a loser on betfair! |
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It's only money after all and you can't take it with you, so as long as you enjoy it and don't lose more than you can afford why worry, it's a stimulating hobby for most, and so long as you're lucky in love, that's the main thing.
I'm Divorced!  , so i'm lucky! |
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Very few made it pay before the exchanges…..now you have a good few angles….
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Stewarts Rise,
That's a good way to look at it actually, it's entertainment just as football is and assuming no addiction or financial issues, i agree. |
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Andrew, i know a fair few people who play golf nearly every day, whatever the weather at about £45 a round plus membership fees per annum, as well as the 19th hole, must cost a small fortune every year, but they love it, gets them away from the missus for a few hours, same sort of thing really, except this is more mental stimulation than physical.
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Only hope is to specialise in a certain type of race, or certain type of sport. I know that I used to punt on a multitude of sports 10-12 years ago (racing, football, golf, cricket, snooker, darts). It took a while for the penny to drop, but I realised i'm not good at betting on football, or snooker or darts. And as much as I love the twighoppers I find NH impossible to make money on. Now I only back on the Flat (Class 2 upwards), Test cricket and golf. Still not having a great year but the losses are small and acceptable. Certainly costing less than joining my local golf course.
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Surely the option to bet using 3rd party software connected to excel largely takes away the need for discipline? I've been trying a system for a couple of months now but if I check up on the system and after 10 or so consecutive losing days is hard to take.
Sitting tight and waiting weeks for a good-run is the only way it seems. Also I suspect many lose heart if their bank drops by 20-30% No point in having a bank if you are not prepared to used 70% of it. |
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What surprises me about fellow punters is that they don't realise there is so much to learn.
Because someone has done it for a long time, they imagine they should know all there is to know. Which is not the case at all. ''But there are also unknown unknowns — there are things we do not know we don’t know.'' Nobody knows it all, but the majority don't even know the basics about form and class. How can they know if no one has told them? It's not their fault. |
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That’s why lay and place is the best for getting an angle…
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many many reasons ,disipline or lack of it,impulse betting ,confidence or lack of it ,i suffer from over and under confidence i.e back a decent winner then i tend to up stakes on the next bet ,if i have a loser i can sometimes lower stakes and then the b,stard goes and wins and its the ol shoulda had more on it ,trying to get that happy medium is difficult . impulse betting gets many and we are all guilty of doing it or done it.
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i will answer the title question with another question and the you will all find the answer or reason why you fail.
QUESTION=Who taught you how to gamble?  |
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Fair comment…
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You maybe correct regarding discipline where software is concerned as it allows you to set parameters to limit losses, my use of the term discipline was more aimed at the players who will play a race for the sake of having an interest or because they are bored or chasing, the end result 99 times out of a 100 results in further loss and further chasing until funds are wiped out and they have to reload.
Over many years it has always astonished me how many bets people will have in a day (my parents were both addicts which I have always believed taught me to be much more selective), obviously I understand if people are trading, but to me trading is more of a business than a gamble, although I appreciate that there is risk involved with trading as well. The only time I can ever remember placing bets in all races is when the kids were in tow on a "family" day out and they would each pick a horse in each race to ensure they retained interest and I was then not forced to entertain them whilst the races were taking place, was always plenty of time for that before it started or when it finished...! |
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In last 40 Years i have never met one person who has made money betting on horses.....Of course we all get our good runs but long term you lose imo.
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Won't be any definitive right or wrong answers on this thread but we'll all have an opinion......
-They study form and expect what happened yesterday to happen tomorrow -Lack of mathematical understanding of the game. -Vast majority are too one dimensional , like placing near or exactly the same bet types in every race despite the many opportunities available , the next two races are frequently so different and require a completely different approach , if you do you'll need a bookmaker syndicate as well as an exchange a/c. -Complete lack of over round vs over broke understanding and how to take advantage of nuggets presented by certain races ( and i don't mean arbing ) -Far too much attention paid to official ratings and form based on one single run. -Majority of punters have a bet because they need an interest with total disregard for the race card opportunities and difficulties. -Flutter between sports and normally invest any winnings from daily horse racing to the dreaded soccer sport which bookmakers absolutely adore with a passion. -Totally confuse the word value with personal opinion. Personally think you need a few attributes to make gambling a success rather than an interesting hobby , plenty of lateral thinking , not get bogged down with stats and possess a comprehensive understanding of when the odds are either for or against you. Good luck all |
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the urge or need to have a bet in every race is not about winning at the end the day, of course if they did win on the odd occasion thats a bonus , its the need to take part the compulsion similar to those fobt players who are on the machine in the shops in the morning and if you were to go back in the afternoon they would still be there if the funds have not run out .
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if you get a raw recruit straight out of school and stick him behind a bookies counter for six months,and make him work as a clerk at race meetings he will learn enough about the do's and the don'ts and he will never be far of winning when he tests his own luck.
and will never get addicted. |
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monarch 12 Oct 22 12:37
Only hope is to specialise in a certain type of race, or certain type of sport. absolutely spot on..still guarantees nothing. |
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Totally agree with becoming a specialist but don't make your specialist sport a popular one like say horses , soccer or golf.
Specialize in something you have a passion for but one that bookmakers have less pricing up expertise like the common sports , pick a sport that they can only price up by considering current standings with no other influence , in other words a sport a chimp could compile due to only having current standings as a marker so the prices are basically just matrix odds with no other built in factors. Mine has been Ice Hockey for the last 15-16 years. |
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Obviously if you have inside info that helps a great deal.
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there are some who can make money acey but losing runs are always looming on the horizen and 1 year you can make money the next you could lose , getting the staking right is crucial and level stakes are not for me so how do you get it right ? as said difficult and i am the kind who always thinks "shoulda had more on"
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having an extra income ie part time job or way to make "passive income " helps plenty and the losing runs are easier to handle .
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take a course on the scottish first division .you will soon be winning when you get use to the teams
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if you do small field ppots and nothing else you will be in front, even with the takeaway. true actual and known fact. was golden when they didnt go into the pool.
alternatively, ask the geezer on top of the winning post what hes backed. its always the winner |
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i find football more difficult than the hosses ,the prices are spot on and very hard to find any value so i very rarely if ever back seriously on footy .
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Scottish low divisions for goals…..or English premier in games that matter….like now….
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Middle races tend to have more runners. This seems to be an obvious ploy by the bookies.
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finding the fabled "edge " or holy grail is what every serious punter wants, do they exist ? ? if the average punter found it would they know how to use it to their best advantage ? edges seem to be like good things in that you cant have too much and they seem to be recognised and closed down pretty fast then its back to square one .
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a decent betting bank and the passive income topping it up every so often also helps ,knowing when to withdraw winnings also helps ,sounds simple just take the money out and shut the computer down but the old "i am playing with their money and i am on a roll so will have another bet could sway the descision.its a complex game we play.
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the best cistern in the world is this..get any of your friends to tip a horse in every race then lay..absolutely guarantees long term prophet.
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Greed….
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Discipline! Discipline! Discipline! This is of utmost importance. And, know your onion too otherwise the scumbag bookies will eat you for breakfast without hesitation.
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spotting value then acting on it ! ..............you have seen something that you think is too big a price ! easy smash into it .......but wait why is it that big a price ? what am i missing here , yard cant fancy it ! hmn the doubts are starting to mount up , the bookies must know ,after all they must know more than the average punter ....fook it ill leave it alone ............it pishes up
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Hopefully in December I will be claiming to have made a profit over a year.
Look at the OP and last post on my thread (which is an explanation to Steve Voltage). I’ve just emailed Andrew a screenshot of my latest Betfair account which he can confirm. It stands at £864.59 even after laying Barely Famous twice yesterday by mistake ( 5.40-5.80 ) -£44 & -£48. |
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A pro gambler once told me a phrase that still resonates with me many years later:
'It's easy to pick winners in horse racing. The hard part is backing them.' Money distorts things including our actual actions - you must learn not to let that happen to be successful punting horses. |