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So why do most(all) fail betting on the nags?
So why do most(all) fail betting on the nags?
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Systems
Do you always let your system run the course from start to finish and see where you are or do you stop once a required level of profit is obtained? Trouble is what level of profit and when to start the system again. I guess this is how similar to how the city traders work? Having the skill to dip in and out of the market required? |
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Easy answer. Racing is a zero sum game and bookmakers have overounds.
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Steve, where do you develop your systems/methods?
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Good point JCM - if official gambling gets closed down, other forms will increase, for sure.
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Tiger Tiger18 Oct 22 13:26Joined: 14 Jul 09 | Topic/replies: 21,817 | Blogger: Tiger Tiger's blog
Steve, where do you develop your systems/methods? pen + paper innit |
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EVERYTHING is stacked against the punter - who is paying for the odds to be stacked against him. Bookies have trimmed in everything so the whole thing is hard work. The sport itself is a gigantic farce of concealed information and unknowable information that also has a set of rules and circumstances that can be exploited by the artful: it is therefore both DIFFICULT when played straight and is also MILDLY BENT at times, just to aggravate matters. Sometimes the formbook is straightforward and winners are fairly easy to find. For me that is mid season Flat and the jumps before Christmas (afterwards Cheltenham distorts everything for three months). The all weather is a nasty joke.
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The impossibility of most punters' ever getting anywhere with it is NEVER discussed in its totally compliant TV and print media. The bookies UTTER RAMPAGING GREED is never discussed. But punters are bombarded with patronising guff about addiction. Then you get c unts on forums telling anyone who complains that it's 'pocket talk', jockeys are the same. Non triers and training in public are all routine though allegedly against the rules. The adverts on the Tube for Royal Ascot and Cheltenham should say: 'Do you enjoy losing money? Cos if so this will be your best day out.'
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Bottle…..that’s all….everyone can read form….
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For me the best tip I ever had was to specialise on a certain discipline.
It is impossible to be an expert on every race. So choose a certain criteria. Whether it's sprints on the flat, staying chasers or 2 mile novices. Choose one and concentrate on just a few horses. Know them better than anyone else and make a few quid when the market is wrong. |
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I agree with that Brandy.
I've been on here nigh on 16 years and lost count of the times I've read that winning long term is impossible. I really am not one for self-deusion, in fact I'd be the opposite, fairly pessimistic by nature; I always think the worst will happen. Yet my figures show that in the last 12 years Ive had two fairly minor and totally manageblenegative balances for January 1 to December 31st periods of betting. Over that time my records show that I've had 3954 bets with 832 winners. At level stakes that has returned 441pts profit or 11% on turnover. Results are consistent and I concentrate on a handful of race types where I believe I have a well practised approach. Now I don't put this up with any sense of hubris or conceit and I totally understand that it might all go seriously south at any time. I'm also aware that some more adventurous types might find plugging away day in day out with level stakes win singles would be pretty mind-numbing. But in the past, varying stakes each way and multiples have left me frustrated and cost me my edge, which is a calm head and rigid discipline. No, the purpose of posting this is simply to refute those who say its impossible to win. It isn't. I have one account left that lets me on with a consistent (relatively modest) level stake, I like to think they are not spooked by sudden swings and that they know what to expect. Like all the rest they might well stop me, which might well be the end of my betting days. But there is a way, unless you want to define "long term" slightly differently, in which case nothing is proven - yet. |
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steerforth -
Congratulations - "had 3954 bets with 832 winners" ... - That is an excellent Strike-Rae of almost 20% - Well done. Quite why - Losing your last (Bookmaker) Account - "might well be the end of my betting days." - mystifies me, as - If you are 'betting level stakes Singles' - then, surely, betting on Betfair would potentially maximise your return ... - and, at least you can, and could, still - 'Get On'. |
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Almost all my bets are in the morning, when I see an angle and think there is a bit of an edge in a price I can get on at and usually there isn't enough available on here. I suppose I could drip feed into here early but there's no certainty about how it'll end up and I dislike ending up with less on than I want. If I've read it wrong and the price drifts I have to accept it as I won't press up. Nowadays I think its foolhardy to expect the market to be consistently wrong, just because I happen to fancy something. Very rarely am I so confident of winning that the drift wouldn't concern me. Obviously drifters do win, but although I have no figures to prove it, I reckon in general it pays to avoid them. As I said, my caution is sometimes a fault, conservative to the point of being boring, but I honestly believe it to be neccessary to stay in front.
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steerforth 16 years with a 20% S/R you must of had to get used to long losing runs?
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This a proper grown up thread,very interesting.
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Do punters still make a living backing win singles on horse racing?
Back in the day when bookies closed on a Saturday evening until Monday morning, no Sunday racing in the UK, no all weather,no early prices ,very little televised racing, etc,etc it was probably the only show in town for a punter to be successful. Nowadays with blanket wall to wall betting available 24/7, it is surely almost a thing of the past. There are so many opportunities to bet even in one event,eg, Horse A v Horse B, laying,place laying etc. This surely tests the DISCIPLINE of the most resolute punters, especially I would imagine of those under 50. |
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stewarty b - "A man who dies rich is a failure" -Andrew Carnegie
Nope. The Carnegie quote is "The man who dies thus rich dies disgraced." A completely different meaning. He believed that the wealthy should repay their debt to society and gave away most of his fortune before he died. |
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Another golden rule would be;
Never listen to "inside information". I'm sure we have all had lots of info down the years and 99% of it is rubbish. |
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Punters don't know nearly enough about finding winners, and they can't isolate the good things.
That is why they fail. |
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Proper inside infomation is worth its weight in gold.Some random person saying this will win is 99% of the time worse than useless.
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Proper information…?
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Trainer’s admit to being the worst
Jockey’s admit to being poor tipster’s Owners won’t tell you if they punt… Work riders will tell you it worked well The only proper information was when certain people met in pubs etc….and paid the price..naughty in the saddle.. Punter opinion is the only way.. |
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Jockey’s admit to being poor tipster’s....Yeah but they all have a string of punters bunging them backhanders so they cant be that bad.
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That’s about the only information you have….skulduggery…
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Not you personally
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If people think you are connected and know something the only way to get these people to stop asking you for tips is to tell them rubbish.If word gets out that you are leaking information you get the sack.What would you do?
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I got one from Alan Baily years back…. at Hamilton..Wolverhampton Sat evening….don’t spread it around…I duly put it on my tipping line..horse won @ 7/2….10 in the morning….I leaked…guilty…
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Very few people inside racing who hand out "proper Information" know anything.
That is why it's useless. Back your own hard work. |
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there's this site that sells trainer quotes, I was member for a month and it was all rubbish. If there's a big gamble planned you won't get a trainer quote.
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If the majority of horse bettors are serial losers, why do the bookmakers restrict and close accounts? ...
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Good question.
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Why wouldn't they? If 1000 people win £3k per month, that's £300k out of the bookie's pockets per month.
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Three in the Uk do it full time….three….
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why do the bookmakers restrict and close accounts? ...
I take stories of closed accounts with a pinch of salts The best excuse in the world for selling tips and not simply backing them yourself, is to tell people you can't get on. It's also good publicity for an exchange to cultivate the idea that if you win with a bookie he'll soon stop you betting. I can understand a big name getting turned away, but not the numbers on here who make the claim. |
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Gaze733 • October 20, 2022 6:05 PM BST
Why wouldn't they? If 1000 people win £3k per month, that's £300k out of the bookie's pockets per month. This would I suggest explain why you have so many problems with your numerous systems. |
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s****
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Really Crippen? You think people are making it up? If you're not gubbed at 365 you must be an ultra mug, there is no other way.
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Well the only other way is kind of elaborate - first you win at 365 but never withdraw, then you lose all of it on purpose while laying the same bets on the exchange.
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