So why do most(all) fail betting on the nags?

Rog, have you ever heard the saying "Scared money never wins"

Totally agree Alan , just over 15 years now and don't regret it for a second.

As a Trading Executive my stress levels were infinitely higher whilst employed , as opposed to the stress free life currently.

I've stuck to the tried and tested strategies that have served me well as posted earlier and far happier not having to write constant trading reports every 5 minutes.

Having said the above it certainly wouldn't be for everyone , that's for sure.


Good luck today 

I agree with the discipline part. I have a lay system that finds favs at 2.5-3.9 that lose 80% of the time, but sometimes there are 0 qualifiers for days. If I could only wait for those mega clown favs.

And this thread was going along so nicely.

You can only lay odds on….you can’t make a book on here laying…..place lay is the most profitable on here for me by far…l

Football goals is another profitable angle…..big teams against inferior can be a license to print….

Classic for me tonight for example (not a tip..opinion) is Man Utd any other home win….6/4 ish….

Backing losers puts you under pressure.
There’s little pressure if you know you're going to come out on top.

why would you lay only odds on? If a 4/1 shot should be 5/1, lay it.

Dr Crippen but there's another kind of pressure. That out of a field of 18 you lay the only horse that wins at 12/1 and lose a chunk of your bank.

What was your choice of racing paper Anorak ..?….life…chronicle…or Post….mind you there wasn’t any choice when the dreaded post arrived….

formoftheace13 Oct 22 15:53Joined: 17 Apr 12 | Topic/replies: 2,429 | Blogger: formoftheace's blog
Classic for me tonight for example (not a tip..opinion) is Man Utd any other home win….6/4 ish….

Hows this licence to print money angle going ?

Most professional gamblers will tell you how they do for the year.So do bookmakers.gambling for professionals is treated as a process not a get rich quick scheme.But surprise surprise the average gambler tries to win every day and thinks there is such a thin g as a last race.While the professional never heard of a last race until the end of HIS year.

Gaze reported for utter spam.

Would encourage others to do the same.

This was/is a good thread til you spew misinformation tripe

been there and done it for many years but at what cost ?
you can forget family life your head needed to be in the form book the early evening/night before and all morning, then setting off for the races mid day getting back after racing, you hardly saw the wife and kids, you live separate lives,meeting up for meal times, no lads night out forget going to the pub thats a no no and never a drink at the racecourse, saturday night out only recover sunday and back at it sunday evening/ night.

You need patience of a saint , you need discipline , you need to not dwell on losing and get on with the next day as they day you dont feel like it there will be a big winner and after 3 losing days it pops up at 20/1 but you know it works that way so y0u dont miss it and they day you do because of a losing streak is the day to give up.
you get burn out and need a few months off every few years to re group and get hungry again because you know when you go racing no one there knows as much as you because they havent done the amount of work you have and you know you can easily beat the odds compilers the same, and you need confidence your the best

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13 Oct 22 13:47Joined: 28 Oct 01 | Topic/replies: 4,115 | Blogger: TheAnorak's blog
Roggrain,

Have to say that doesn't match my experience. I used to find having a regular job far more stressful. The advantages of full time punting - no bosses, no customers, no performance reviews, no mission statements, no idiot colleagues, no office politics, no commuting and no income tax.

Of course there's also no paid holidays, no pension fund, no company car and no guarantees, but I never regretted taking the chance.




I can identify with your post Alan. I was lucky enough to 'retire' at 36 and although I took the odd casual job to pay the mortgage twenty odd years later I can  say my only regrets about being a punter were the many broken relationships.


I was lucky enough to meet a bookmaker in a pub bemoaning my losses to a pal. He picked up on my conversation and introduced himself. I was now betting tax free but the most important bit was what he shared with me.

It was priceless but it didn't stop the chasing. I could write another ten paragraphs but to cut it short, any money I make on here is a bonus and has paid many a bill including paying off my mortgage after an unbelievable run.

That said, the bad runs still bite but I tend to continue knowing or perhaps hoping that the turnaround comes given I mostly back in certain races  and here is my little trick nowadays. When I hit a losing run I continue and it sometimes works out.


However if I have a really good run I stop for a few days or perhaps longer.


As my bookmaker friend preached to me....'Anyone can read the form, it's how you interpretate it that counts.

Retired at 36 and took the odd job to pay the mortgage……36!…..why did you not keep punting rather than part time….Jesus……

Anyone can read form…..big difference when you go racing with the readies and have to make the decision how much…do you have the bottle or the fund to hand over hard cash….an even monkey please……did the heart skip a bit….?

Back home

Petrol
Entry
Food
Overnight etc etc

Bottle…..in spades…..plus a person at home asking questions…..lion taming….the old punting

People will ask……’are you still gambling’ it’s frowned upon as we all know…..

My story may resonate with some particularly my first few decades of punting and others may find my experience helpful in making their hobby become profitable or less costly.

I am now 67 and have gambled consistently since I was 13.

Football and horse racing have been my interests and I have mostly regarded this pursuit as recreational. I was young and naive like most of us in the early years and the study of form for horse racing was looking at 304112 figures in the Daily Mirror. You couldn’t watch most races and if someone predicted that one day you could have video replays on a website I would have given them an incredulous stare and thought they were mad.

I never realised at the time how the odds were stacked against us with such handicaps of betting tax, accumulators only on most football games and the general lack of information. All of that eventually changed and the biggest asset for me was the internet and the ever increasing sources of information.

I stumbled across a betting forum and a light bulb moment occurred. I pursued a niche interest and my fortunes changed.

Non league football. Mainly from step 1-4. I have never watched a game at that level in my life and I couldn’t name an individual player.

What I had available thanks to the www was information that very few others took an interest in. As an example I could read the Whitby Gazette everyday, theirs fans forum which was occupied by 20 or so dedicated fanatics and the clubs own website.

As we know the odds compilers spend 3 seconds on each game using league position as their primary guide. That is only part of the story but at that level extreme events occur out of the blue. Many clubs build the financial basis on prize money received at each round of the FA Trophy and FA Cup. An early exit can mean the departure of the their star players who are the only ones on contracts and a promising season takes a nosedive  Likewise a Manager can get poached and he takes half the first team squad with him. Chairman not paying wages and players drifting off, going on strike or making half hearted efforts. None of those stories will be on tha back page of The Sun.

I started tentatively and gradually increased my stakes. I also began to dedicate 40 or more hours a week to my hobby. Over a10 year period I made in excess of £80k profit. Some of you will guess how it came to an end. Virtually all accounts were either closed or restricted. Only Betfair is now available to me and the markets for my niche interest  either do not exist or have no liquidity especially if you need to get on early.

In many respects the punter has never had it better. No betting tax, abundance of information and choices of what to bet on. The moral for me is to specialise, treat it like a job and don’t be lazy.

I have my pensions to take care of my living expenses. I keep my betting funds separate. I now mainly follow horse racing which I can watch everyday from the comfort of my living room. I now make small profits each year which I am content with as I can enjoy my hobby without any stress.

I do my homework. I watch plenty of races and thanks to ATR and Racing Uk I can view most replays. You can never watch too many

. My main advice when deciding whether to bet or not. When assessing any event whether it be football, racing or anything else. Don’t approach it initially on who you think might win. Firstly work out who cannot win and if you are left with too many possibles leave it alone. If you do your homework those instances when to go in will become more clear.

I am also realistic though because as much as you can do that you cannot control stupidity of the participants or the connections decision that today is not the day so price and late market activity becomes the final factor.

Discipline is also important but I also get sucked in to things I should leave alone. That may be because of boredom, fomo or feeling cheated at an earlier loss but I don’t beat myself over it. I just try to do it less often.

form. The year High Rise won the Derby I was on a walking holiday and staying in a B&B in Penzance.

I put my bet on the day before. At breakfast on Saturday I got talking to a couple and as it turned

out he was a retired bookie and it was his birthday. Anyway I gave him my reasoning for liking

High Rise . He didn't say much and listened attentively. Eventually he said, in his cockney accent,

'That's very interesting, but you know what the most important thing in this game is? You gotta ave

bottle!

That afternoon as I collected my winnings his words were ringing in my head. I'd only had a few beans

on.

Roggrain…..good you punted the winner…..but the bookie was bang on……regardless how much you have bottle is the main

How much you can take mentally…..you could have a million in the bank….but there are some who couldn’t handle losing a monkey or a grand….it’s not all about the pocket result….

One of the most difficult things to get a grip on……..the pro punting…

KeithMac decent piece.

Nice to see a very infrequent poster in Keithmac posting his thoughts, drop in again.

Macsaddle you look young enough on the twitter photo….why don’t you take the plunge….instead of being …a pro (ish) as you put it…….

Start tonight at the local track….head along with a grand in readies….

i find it much easier and less stressfull trying to find bigger priced winners ,risking a grand to try to win a grand doesnt appeal to me would much rather attempt to win a grand by risking £50 on a 20/1, shot much less stressfull but each to his own.

Keithmac excellent piece has encouraged me to put my (abbreviated) story up.

I started betting at the age of 8 in days of illegal betting shops. By the time I was in my mid-teens I was (considering my very working class environment) spending a lot of my time in betting shops (no trouble in finding betting shops in those days that ignored the age). I think I did Ok, I certainly couldn't have lost as I had nothing to start with! I had a crazy system which seemed to work but my main strategy was each way betting (particularly doubles). I thought I was the only one who had spotted the thieving doubles angle.

When I made redundant from first job at age of 24, I spent two years trying to make a living from punting and I did but a very low level and my outgoings was small (sharing a flat with 3 others). Basically the tax was too much (I travelled to racecourses and even Wimbledon Tennis championships where Ladbrokes had a shop just to save tax). I realised I could support a family on what I won so after two years went back to a 9-5 job.

During my working career I became mainly a Saturday only punter and though I never kept figures, I'm sure I would have been a loser during that time. But it became a target for me to have another go encouraged by Gordon Brown's betting tax changes.
Roll on the late 1990s The kids were moving out and I felt my job was coming to an end so I started spending more time on racing and built up a nice little bank from profits (about 20k in 4 years). I was made redundant and took early retirement in 2003. I had met Alan Potts a couple of times at the races after both of us had been member of Smartsig. My objectives became to earn enough money punting and become as knowledgeable as Alan.

For about 6 or 7 years of my new punting, I studied form intensely and did surprising well. Again each way betting was at the fore plus I was taking advantages of bookies offers (i used to think some of these amounted to loss leaders and I tried pick them off). Two thinks then happened, I found form reading becoming ever more difficult (age) and of course the era of bookies closing/restricting accounts. So I had to reinvent my betting mainly on exchanges and my profit reduced dramatically thou still a nice earner for a pensioner's hobby. My main two methods are now laying outsiders pre race and inrunning betting from home.

I achieved the one objective of making money for a very comfortable retirement but the second objective of being as knowledgeable as people like Alan Potts has been an abject failure. The main thing I learnt was how little I did, and do not. know, and very little knowledge of form these days.

So my conclusion is that if someone with not a great deal of skill/knowledge can make money then this idea that no one can make a profit is ridiculous. Probably a small percentage but it can be done. When comes to betting I think my virtues are a lot of experience,  good discipline and finding my own little edges.

ItsMeSwaddle  Stewart’s, Brian.

You are kind. Appreciated.

Some good advice.....especially Stewarty's trick.when hes losing he keeps punting till whatever
When he's winning he stops and goes up the shops.

Oct 14, 2022 -- 9:58AM, formoftheace wrote:

Macsaddle you look young enough on the twitter photo….why don’t you take the plunge….instead of being …a pro (ish) as you put it…….Start tonight at the local track….head along with a grand in readies….

Thanks for the kind advice.
Being part of a syndicate is often someone else placing the bets and winning losing, albeit with your funds, or share of, does this make you pro?

If I was to make it fully pro each to their own but i'd strongly advise recreational gamblers to stop having a place lay every race, but thats what makes racing fascinating.

Cheers

stewarty b • October 14, 2022 3:13 AM BST
When I hit a losing run I continue and it sometimes works out.

However if I have a really good run I stop for a few days or perhaps longer.

if you read the KEITHMAC story you will all find a good system.
its called the Sherlock Holmes system and many professionals use it."eliminate the impossible and you are left with the possible'good post Keith.

There are loads of place Laying material each day…..

Great thread this and a very interesting read but two quotes everyone should consider...

-If it's not broke don't fix it

-Einstein definition of insanity.


Good luck all 

Interesting to see the two sides of the argument about pressure.

Possible to argue both ways I agree: having steady income vs risky income and possibly no income at times. But, avoiding all the hassles and stresses of much employed work I can also see.

Simple answer IMO is to find employed work that is less stressful, in adding that to your side income from punting. Not always easy though I realise.

Most fail because they take the wrong price

toot rue. the biggest mistake of most wagons is they try and back the winner. its all about the choc ice. another sign of mugginess is a fixation with jokeys. the handful of winners i no dont even look at them

I don’t do pressure…….

Thanks for getting this thread back on track everyone after a certain party looked like dragging it down. Great reading.

FFS steerforth this thread is no more than a biography of why many of the participants spend 24/7 on this Forum,plenty of exceptions tbf e.g Anorak,Foyles et al.

When i was doing well in the 80/90 i always thought the biggest advantage a punter had,was:
unlike the bookie, he could choose when to bet.For a punter who waits for the right value bet,
this gives him a massive advantage.
Also,imo level stakes betting does not work.Having more on banker bets will increase profits over time.
Race-reading and watching many races is essential.You should be looking at what is happening in a race
away from the first 3 or 4 home.An eyecatcher in behind creates 2 advantages.
1. An increase in price in its next race.
2. A decrease in its handicap mark(if its run was a handicap).
Good luck.

dont back flat horses at the end of the season and dont bet jumps horses at the start of the season, that means now.

youre welcome.

I hope all you Winners are keeping Diaries.

This thread is absolutely staggering and phrases such as:

"However if I have a really good run I stop for a few days or perhaps longer."

"In last 40 Years i have never met one person who has made money betting on horses."

Simply defy belief. There is so much information in the public domain that winning is perfectly straight forward. Getting on is the problem.

Stewart and acey

“there are known knowns; there are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns—the ones we don't know we don't know”  - Donald Rumsfeld 2002

"A man who dies rich is a failure"

Andrew Carnegie

10/1 and not a bolt….I rest my case….

formoftheace14 Oct 22 08:48Joined: 17 Apr 12 | Topic/replies: 2,510 | Blogger: formoftheace's blog
Retired at 36 and took the odd job to pay the mortgage……36!…..why did you not keep punting rather than part time….Jesus……



Because I was laying instead and making a good living out of it. Before exchanges I may add. Capeech?

A Guy could learn a lot more than he knows about horse racing if he studied the jockey's that finish second in races.He will see things that happen that he never noticed before.

Oct 15, 2022 -- 9:21PM, stewarty b wrote:

formoftheace14 Oct 22 08:48Joined: 17 Apr 12 | Topic/replies: 2,510 | Blogger: formoftheace's blogRetired at 36 and took the odd job to pay the mortgage……36!…..why did you not keep punting rather than part time….Jesus……Because I was laying instead and making a good living out of it. Before exchanges I may add. Capeech?

In the pub?

Street corners before the betting offices were legalised in 1961.

Easy behind a keyboard innit?

The way things are going the pub bookie might make a comeback.
If there are any pubs open anywhere.

Especially if it's near a billys. Just offer the punters BOG.

Systems

Do you always let your system run the course from start to finish and see where you are or do you stop once a required level of profit is obtained?

Trouble is what level of profit and when to start the system again. I guess this is how similar to how the city traders work? Having the skill to dip in and out of the market required?

Easy answer. Racing is a zero sum game and bookmakers have overounds.

Steve, where do you develop your systems/methods?

Good point JCM - if official gambling gets closed down, other forms will increase, for sure.

Tiger Tiger18 Oct 22 13:26Joined: 14 Jul 09 | Topic/replies: 21,817 | Blogger: Tiger Tiger's blog
Steve, where do you develop your systems/methods?

pen + paper innit

EVERYTHING is stacked against the punter - who is paying for the odds to be stacked against him. Bookies have trimmed in everything so the whole thing is hard work. The sport itself is a gigantic farce of concealed information and unknowable information that also has a set of rules and circumstances that can be exploited by the artful: it is therefore both DIFFICULT when played straight and is also MILDLY BENT at times, just to aggravate matters. Sometimes the formbook is straightforward and winners are fairly easy to find. For me that is mid season Flat and the jumps before Christmas (afterwards Cheltenham distorts everything for three months). The all weather is a nasty joke.

The impossibility of most punters' ever getting anywhere with it is NEVER discussed in its totally compliant TV and print media. The bookies UTTER RAMPAGING GREED is never discussed. But punters are bombarded with patronising guff about addiction. Then you get c unts on forums telling anyone who complains that it's 'pocket talk', jockeys are the same. Non triers and training in public are all routine though allegedly against the rules. The adverts on the Tube for Royal Ascot and Cheltenham should say: 'Do you enjoy losing money? Cos if so this will be your best day out.'

Bottle…..that’s all….everyone can read form….

For me the best tip I ever had was to specialise on a certain discipline.

It is impossible to be an expert on every race.

So choose a certain criteria.

Whether it's sprints on the flat, staying chasers or 2 mile novices. Choose one and concentrate on just a few horses.

Know them better than anyone else and make a few quid when the market is wrong.

I agree with that Brandy.
I've been on here nigh on 16 years and lost count of the times I've read that winning long term is impossible. I really am not one for self-deusion, in fact I'd be the opposite, fairly pessimistic by nature; I always think the worst will happen. Yet my figures show that in the last 12 years Ive had two fairly minor and totally manageblenegative balances for January 1 to December 31st periods of betting. Over that time my records show that I've had 3954 bets with 832 winners. At level stakes that has returned 441pts profit or 11% on turnover. Results are consistent and I concentrate on a handful of race types where I believe I have a well practised approach.
Now I don't put this up with any sense of hubris or conceit and I totally understand that it might all go seriously south at any time. I'm also aware that some more adventurous types might find plugging away day in day out with level stakes win singles would be pretty mind-numbing. But in the past, varying stakes each way and multiples have left me frustrated and cost me my edge, which is a calm head and rigid discipline. No, the purpose of posting this is simply to refute those who say its impossible to win. It isn't. I have one account left that lets me on with a consistent (relatively modest) level stake, I like to think they are not spooked by sudden swings and that they know what to expect. Like all the rest they might well stop me, which might well be the end of my betting days. But there is a way, unless you want to define "long term" slightly differently, in which case nothing is proven - yet.

steerforth -

Congratulations - "had 3954 bets with 832 winners" ...

- That is an excellent Strike-Rae of almost 20% - Well done.

Quite why - Losing your last (Bookmaker) Account - "might well be the end of my betting days."  - mystifies me, as -

If you are 'betting level stakes Singles' - then, surely, betting on Betfair would potentially maximise your return ...

- and, at least you can, and could, still - 'Get On'.

Almost all my bets are in the morning, when I see an angle and think there is a bit of an edge in a price I can get on at and usually there isn't enough available on here. I suppose I could drip feed into here early but there's no certainty about how it'll end up and I dislike ending up with less on than I want. If I've read it wrong and the price drifts I have to accept it as I won't press up. Nowadays I think its foolhardy to expect the market to be consistently wrong, just because I happen to fancy something. Very rarely am I so confident of winning that the drift wouldn't concern me. Obviously drifters do win, but although I have no figures to prove it, I reckon in general it pays to avoid them. As I said, my caution is sometimes a fault, conservative to the point of being boring, but I honestly believe it to be neccessary to stay in front.

steerforth 16 years with a 20% S/R you must of had to get used to long losing runs?

This a proper grown up thread,very interesting.

Do punters still make a living backing win singles on horse racing?

Back in the day when bookies closed on a Saturday evening until Monday morning, no Sunday racing in the UK, no all weather,no early prices ,very little televised racing, etc,etc it was probably the only show in town for a punter to be successful.

Nowadays with blanket wall to wall betting available 24/7, it is surely almost a thing of the past. There are so many opportunities to bet even in one event,eg, Horse A v Horse B, laying,place laying etc.

This surely tests the DISCIPLINE of the most resolute punters, especially I would imagine of those under 50.

stewarty b - "A man who dies rich is a failure" -Andrew Carnegie

Nope. The Carnegie quote is "The man who dies thus rich dies disgraced." A completely different meaning. He believed that the wealthy should repay their debt to society and gave away most of his fortune before he died.

Oct 20, 2022 -- 8:06AM, Steve Voltage wrote:

steerforth 16 years with a 20% S/R you must of had to get used to long losing runs?

Oh yes - plenty.

Another golden rule would be;

Never listen to "inside information".

I'm sure we have all had lots of info down the years and 99% of it is rubbish.

Punters don't know nearly enough about finding winners, and they can't isolate the good things.

That is why they fail.

Proper inside infomation is worth its weight in gold.Some random person saying this will win is 99% of the time worse than useless.

Proper information…?

Trainer’s admit to being the worst

Jockey’s admit to being poor tipster’s

Owners won’t tell you if they punt…

Work riders will tell you it worked well

The only proper information was when certain people met in pubs etc….and paid the price..naughty in the saddle..

Punter opinion is the only way..

Jockey’s admit to being poor tipster’s....Yeah but they all have a string of punters bunging them backhanders so they cant be that bad.

That’s about the only information you have….skulduggery…

Not you personally

If people think you are connected and know something the only way to get these people to stop asking you for tips is to tell them rubbish.If word gets out that you are leaking information you get the sack.What would you do?

I got one from Alan Baily years back…. at Hamilton..Wolverhampton Sat evening….don’t spread it around…I duly put it on my tipping line..horse won @ 7/2….10 in the morning….I leaked…guilty…

Very few people inside racing who hand out "proper Information" know anything.

That is why it's useless.

Back your own hard work.

there's this site that sells trainer quotes, I was member for a month and it was all rubbish. If there's a big gamble planned you won't get a trainer quote.

If the majority of horse bettors are serial losers, why do the bookmakers restrict and close accounts? ...

Good question.

Why wouldn't they? If 1000 people win £3k per month, that's £300k out of the bookie's pockets per month.

Three in the Uk do it full time….three….

why do the bookmakers restrict and close accounts? ...

I take stories of closed accounts with a pinch of salts
The best excuse in the world for selling tips and not simply backing them yourself, is to tell people you can't get on.

It's also good publicity for an exchange to cultivate the idea that if you win with a bookie he'll soon stop you betting.

I can understand a big name getting turned away, but not the numbers on here who make the claim.

Gaze733 • October 20, 2022 6:05 PM BST
Why wouldn't they? If 1000 people win £3k per month, that's £300k out of the bookie's pockets per month.

This would I suggest explain why you have so many problems with your numerous systems.

s****

Really Crippen? You think people are making it up? If you're not gubbed at 365 you must be an ultra mug, there is no other way.

Well the only other way is kind of elaborate - first you win at 365 but never withdraw, then you lose all of it on purpose while laying the same bets on the exchange.

You think people are making it up?

Of course the majority will be making it up.

Whoever met a punter who admits to losing? At worst they’ll only admit to breaking even.

Where's your street cred as a punter or a professional if you don't boast that you've had accounts closed by bookies?

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I must have had more than a dozen bookmaker accounts at one time. I've just checked my last bet with a bookmaker was September 2017. Obviously I stopped betting with them to  enhance my credibility

I have zero interest in street cred, and I promise you I've had all bar one account closed, or rather restricted to point of being of no practical use.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R-FxmoVM7X4

Surely the lure to betting on the horses is the perception that you can win?
Why would any professional connected to horse racing not want to play up this perception? And closed accounts is the proof.
If we can believe them.