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get the kitty going early doors today. Big R looked slow at Salisbury so if Balding's Matching Sox has any kind of ability he'll be the one chasing the Beckett animal home. 11/4 for 2p's. GL 
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agree, looks value at 14.5
I'm on
G'Luck
I'm on
G'Luck
| Kempton 13:00 -- 5f Nov Stks |
| 6 Runners £181,992 Matched |
| 101.4% | 99.2% | |||||||
| 5 (4) Keep Bidding d:66 | 1.37 | 1.38 | 1.39 | 1.4 | 1.41 | 1.42 | £153,763 | |
| F: 24 a:2 w:9-2 or:0 Rob Hornby(0) / R M Beckett | £389 | £287 | £466 | £559 | £917 | £805 | ||
| 4 (1) Big R d:62 | 5.7 | 5.8 | 5.9 | 6.2 | 6.4 | 6.6 | £15,642 | |
| F: 7 a:2 w:9-3 or:0 Cieren Fallon(0) / Eve Johnson Houghton | £104 | £80 | £89 | £109 | £96 | £119 | ||
| 1 (6) Matching Sox d:0 | 13 | 13.5 | 14 | 14.5 | 15 | 15.5 | £8,432 | |
| F: a:2 w:9-7 or:0 David Probert(0) / A M Balding | £43 | £99 | £61 | £42 | £45 | £103 | ||
| 6 (3) Attrazione d:0 | 36 | 38 | 40 | 42 | 44 | 46 | £1,997 | |
| F: a:2 w:9-0 or:0 Saffie Osborne(3) / G Boughey | £10 | £17 | £7 | £36 | £29 | £26 | ||
| 2 (5) Cuban Grey d:0 | 46 | 48 | 50 | 60 | 65 | 70 | £1,260 | |
| F: a:2 w:9-5 or:0 Hayley Turner(0) / R M H Cowell | £3 | £11 | £29 | £23 | £27 | £7 | ||
| 3 (2) Gintini d:0 | 100 | 110 | 120 | 140 | 150 | 160 | £898 | |
| F: a:2 w:9-5 or:0 L Morris(0) / Mrs L J Mongan | £29 | £4 | £14 | £3 | £3 | £11 |
backed in running as well
Nice way to start the day/week
Nice way to start the day/week
| Kempton 13:00 -- 5f Nov Stks |
| 6 Runners £380,553 Matched |
| 13.7% | 96.3% | ||||||||
| -£16 | 5 (4) Keep Bidding d:66 | 1.76 | 2.2 | 12 | 800 | - | - | £313,335 | |
| F: 24 a:2 w:9-2 or:0 Rob Hornby(0) / R M Beckett | £7 | £17 | £3 | £1 | |||||
| -£16 | 4 (1) Big R d:62 | 4.1 | 16 | 40 | - | - | - | £28,998 | |
| F: 7 a:2 w:9-3 or:0 Cieren Fallon(0) / Eve Johnson Houghton | £1 | £7 | £4 | ||||||
| £605.12 | 1 (6) Matching Sox d:0 | - | - | - | 1.04 | 930 | - | £30,275 | |
| F: a:2 w:9-7 or:0 David Probert(0) / A M Balding | £195 | £1 | |||||||
| -£16 | 6 (3) Attrazione d:0 | 40 | 42 | 46 | - | - | - | £3,984 | |
| F: a:2 w:9-0 or:0 Saffie Osborne(3) / G Boughey | £5 | £1 | £6 | ||||||
| -£16 | 2 (5) Cuban Grey d:0 | 60 | 150 | 1000 | - | - | - | £2,547 | |
| F: a:2 w:9-5 or:0 Hayley Turner(0) / R M H Cowell | £1 | £15 | £218 | ||||||
| -£16 | 3 (2) Gintini d:0 | 110 | 130 | 160 | - | - | - | £1,412 | |
| F: a:2 w:9-5 or:0 L Morris(0) / Mrs L J Mongan | £5 | £2 | £10 |
wd escapee
you used to get the occasional well done when you told people about an 18/1 winner, but those days seem to have gone. maybe they're not backing them, which would be madness.
you used to get the occasional well done when you told people about an 18/1 winner, but those days seem to have gone. maybe they're not backing them, which would be madness.
yeah good thinking hulk. I was of the same thinking, but I'm more shocked at how the inplay market acted
midway through the race Keep Bidding had already won pretty much according to the market
wd escapee on your 18/1+ winner
wd hulk on your 11/4 winner
sadly I did neither so more fool me
wd hulk on your 11/4 winner
sadly I did neither so more fool me
found 2 that didn't follow the advice anyway 
afternoon chaps.
afternoon chaps.
thx Rico. hope you filled the boots - £22k at 11/4 for you sir ??
you used to get the occasional well done when you told people about an 18/1 winner, but those days seem to have gone.
That would be about 15 years ago when we had a thread going on every single race.
That would be about 15 years ago when we had a thread going on every single race.
Backing in a race when 66% of the field are debutants can only be guesswork.
Anyone backing the 2/7 can maybe consider themselves unlucky but a more sensible strategy in the first place would have meant avoiding the race due to the guessing element.
Anyone backing the 2/7 can maybe consider themselves unlucky but a more sensible strategy in the first place would have meant avoiding the race due to the guessing element.
Hayden 08 Aug 22 13:35
Backing in a race when 66% of the field are debutants can only be guesswork.
Backing in a race when 66% of the field are debutants can only be guesswork.
It's a bit snobbish to call these races "guessing games", I find them a lot easier than
a race full of horses with form.
If you think 1.3 on the favourite is too short, then all you have to do is look for the vaguest sign that another runner might be to long.
If your analysis on the favourite is good then you'll almost certainly be getting some value on the long shot.
Don't expect a winner every time, but you're getting value, and it will pay off.
That's my game
G'luck
a race full of horses with form.
If you think 1.3 on the favourite is too short, then all you have to do is look for the vaguest sign that another runner might be to long.
If your analysis on the favourite is good then you'll almost certainly be getting some value on the long shot.
Don't expect a winner every time, but you're getting value, and it will pay off.
That's my game
G'luck
Some days are just crazy with that strategy 
I'm on fire today
Back (Bet For)
Odds
Stake
Profit
Never Just A Dream
11.74
£20.00
£214.80
Total stake:
£20.00
Lay (Bet Against)
Backer's odds
Backer's stake
Payout
Liability
Never Just A Dream
2.44
£30.00
£43.20
Total stake:
£30.00
Bet info
I'm on fire today
| Wolverhampton 14:45 -- 6f Nov Stks |
| 10 Runners £411,437 Matched |
| 13.8% | 23.3% | ||||||||
| £10 | 8 (1) Starnberg d:12 | 20 | 24 | 40 | - | - | - | £133,409 | |
| F: 32 a:2 w:9-7 or: S Hitchcott(0) / R Hannon | £2 | £6 | £4 | ||||||
| £10 | 5 (10) Mutaany d:60 | 34 | 40 | 44 | - | - | - | £148,425 | |
| F: 72 a:2 w:9-7 or: Jim Crowley(0) / C Hills | £1 | £4 | £1 | ||||||
| £10 | 3 (4) Forceful Speed d:120 | 16 | 24 | 40 | - | - | - | £56,691 | |
| F: 20 a:2 w:9-7 or: Rossa Ryan(0) / G Boughey | £7 | £6 | £4 | ||||||
| £10 | 4 (2) Manuha d:14 | 8 | 25 | 46 | - | - | - | £16,353 | |
| F: 53 a:2 w:9-7 or:0 W Buick(0) / G Boughey | £19 | £6 | £4 | ||||||
| £181.8 | 6 (11) Never Just A Dream d:17 | - | - | - | 4.3 | 6.6 | 10 | £46,268 | |
| F: 8 a:2 w:9-7 or: K Shoemark(0) / I Mohammed | £3 | £1 | £4 | ||||||
| £10 | 11 (7) Soleil Blanc d:111 | - | - | - | - | - | - | £0 | |
| F: 25 a:2 w:9-2 or: Rhys Clutterbuck(3) / P D Evans | |||||||||
| £10 | 2 (3) Drafted d:69 | 7.6 | 8 | 26 | - | - | - | £8,788 | |
| F: 46 a:2 w:9-7 or:0 P J McDonald(0) / James Horton | £10 | £10 | £5 | ||||||
| £10 | 7 (8) Solitary Trees d:10 | 170 | 240 | 380 | - | - | - | £792 | |
| F: 09 a:2 w:9-7 or:0 Daniel Muscutt(0) / G Boughey | £1 | £2 | £1 | ||||||
| £10 | 9 (9) Ginny Jo d:10 | 550 | 820 | 1000 | - | - | - | £364 | |
| F: 8 a:2 w:9-2 or: Joanna Mason(0) / D Shaw | £1 | £2 | £6 | ||||||
| £10 | 10 (6) Lsarafina d:60 | 550 | 600 | 1000 | - | - | - | £347 | |
| F: 0 a:2 w:9-2 or:0 Cam Hardie(0) / D Shaw | £1 | £1 | £6 |
Back (Bet For)
Odds
Stake
Profit
Never Just A Dream
11.74
£20.00
£214.80
Total stake:
£20.00
Lay (Bet Against)
Backer's odds
Backer's stake
Payout
Liability
Never Just A Dream
2.44
£30.00
£43.20
Total stake:
£30.00
Bet info
wd hulk, I didn't back it, but it was my nap in the Div 2 tipping comp, so I'm more than happy!
Nice one Escapee
That was part of my point earlier , the improvement from debutant to 2nd run at that age can be extraordinary or even regress , you can never tell
Certainly better to speculate in these races at something double digits than try to consider " form " which means nothing in these type of races with so many dark horses with massive improvement potential.
Key is the strike rate in guessing races , double digits the clever play if you must bet so keeping the required strike rate for profit very low.
Good luck later
That was part of my point earlier , the improvement from debutant to 2nd run at that age can be extraordinary or even regress , you can never tell
Certainly better to speculate in these races at something double digits than try to consider " form " which means nothing in these type of races with so many dark horses with massive improvement potential.
Key is the strike rate in guessing races , double digits the clever play if you must bet so keeping the required strike rate for profit very low.
Good luck later
A 14/1 winner paid out at 11/4. What’s it like betting like a girl?!
At least Escapee bets like a man. Well done, Sir.
At least Escapee bets like a man. Well done, Sir.
I bet it 3 places on purple Hulk - can't do on BF anymore - God knows why - was clearly gutted when it hosed up ;)
I've been looking for an old thread where I post and demonstrated Betfair's X-Matching algorithm with 'Virtual bets' switched on and off (only available thru API) and can't find it.
But during the search, I've read a few of my old winning (and losing) posts.... Some of them are
One I read, Rico is dissing me for backing the winner at 370 in an 8 runner race
https://community.betfair.com/horse_racing/go/thread/view/94102/31770807/i-thought-lusaka-was-a-cert
.
But during the search, I've read a few of my old winning (and losing) posts.... Some of them are
One I read, Rico is dissing me for backing the winner at 370 in an 8 runner race
https://community.betfair.com/horse_racing/go/thread/view/94102/31770807/i-thought-lusaka-was-a-cert
.
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