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George's 2022 / 23 Juvenile Hurdler Selection Thread
George's 2022 / 23 Juvenile Hurdler Selection Thread
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Unraced 3yos running for big money looked like a marketing ploy to tempt GB trainers to me.
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Of my three qualifiers...
Sabyinyo, who was a big drifter in the betting, settled fine and was in touch with the leaders until the home straight but stopped quickly. Given he went the wrong way for Mick Channon, not sure, but after another run or two and better ground, maybe handicaps will show him in a better light. Non Stop got the plaudits from the paddock judges, and ran well under his penalty depite not helped by being keen early or losing ground when not being fluent at one of the hurdles. Planet Legend was the late mover in the betting but unfortunately for his backers he didn't get very far. Running P/L: +6.35 pts |
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An international look to the Listed fillies race at Aintree today, with French trainer Dominic Sourdeau De Beauregard represented by Isaline De Chandou. She's a top class filly in France and although only fifth on her last start, that was their 3yo championship race and she was the only filly in the field taking on the best males. The French handicapper has her 5kgs higher than Dixon Cove and don't underestimate her trainer - he's got a good record in France, especially with fillies, and this is his first runner this side of the Channel.
The softer the ground at Aintree, the better his filly will like it and the layout of the hurdle track is about as close to that of Auteuil as you'll find over here - long home bend, two hurdles in the straight, long run-in and dead flat. |
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Thanks TheAnorak. It looks like an informative race which have been thin on the ground with 3yo hurdlers so far.
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Thanks for the analysis, Anorak.
I don't have any 'qualifiers' running but will watch with interest. Good luck all. |
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If anyone wants to play in that race Spoilsports offering cash back if 2nd to SP fav -max £20 .
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Cheers Manoleeds
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That was a proper race. Strong pace, sound jumping and a close finish. Nicholls finds another. He has a really strong hand of young horses.
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Wonder if Hughes would have been better off just getting on with it from the top of the straight rather than sat there looking pretty.
Also the inside looks quite cut up, so perhaps it helped the winner being wide off the rail in the closing stages. Good shout from Anorak, she travelled well and went 2s ON in the run and got the place money. |
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Great write up on the 12.55 Alan
 Quality thread George Best of luck for rest of day all |
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I didn't think the French filly got the trip at that pace.
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Thank you, Hayden.
sageform, she is bred to stay well on both sides of her pedigree with her dam being a 3m1f Grade 2 winner in France. But who knows, it's not an exact science. Getting back to the French import yesterday, Kansas Du Berlais, it'll be interesting to see if he's got the tongue tie back on next time (or even undergoes a wind-op), and if it makes a difference. |
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That didn't seem to stay either George but I know that Sandown finds out anything with a wind issue. A lot of French 3yo hurdles are run at a canter for 10 furlongs so it makes a very big difference when they have to gallop and jump for 2 miles.
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What looks the best juvenile hurdle of the season so far is at Fairyhouse tomorrow with six previous winners including Zarak The Brave taking each other on, but sadly none of my 55-rated notebook horses off the Flat are taking part
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Kansas Du Berlais will be having a wind op
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He may prove to be a different proposition yet, mrcombustible.
I didn't bother with a selection in today's juvenile hurdle at Musselburgh, and Freddy Robinson who had been a selection at least twice on my Flat thread and who I'd selected on this thread when he made his hurdles debut, finally went and won one. Not unbacked either, as he had been available at bigger prices. Oh well, such is life...  |
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stating the bleeding obvious here i know but yesterdays winner of the best juvenile hurdle ran this season looks top class.
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Between that one and Scriptwriter so far. The latter was a very high class flat horse and won easily at Cheltenham.
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Interesting little juvenile hurdle to kick the card off at Fontwell today.
I have a couple of qualifiers running - Achnamara and Wholeofthemoon - but I'm just going to watch. Achnamara, rated 93 on the Flat, was trained by the Johnstons and has been sold for 50,000 gns. His best form is on quick ground / the AW, so while the ground might not be too bad there today and his rating makes him an interesting recruit to hurdling, I'll just watch with interest. Wholeofthemoon, like Achnamara, his peak effort has come on the AW. He probably ran into one on his hurdles debut when finishing second in a steadily-run race round Wetherby on heavy ground, and will probably appreciate the better surface today. However, rated 18lb below Achnamara on the level, so not an easy task if that one transfers his Flat ability to this sphere. Another French import runs here, Mombasa, who cost 250,000 euros after winning a Listed race six months ago at Auteuil. Of the ones to have run since from that race, glancing down the RP form, none of them appear to have won a race. A double penalty to carry here, minus David Maxwell's 3lb claim. The other two French imports - Aviles (runner-up on stable debut at Fontwell) and Jilaijone - both look open to improvement. |
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Small field again but all have claims. I will take a chance with Achnamara as Noel Fehily is buying very shrewdly so far and the horse got 14 furlongs on the flat. I am still uneasy about the Harry Fry stable form, but it is improving. David Maxwell may have a claim, but he is also a penalty, particularly on a 3yo.
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Mombasa got the plaudits from the paddock judge, however, the betting market didn't half tell a tale.
Achnamara started off ok, making a good shape at the first couple of flights, but then made an absolute howler. The stable won the November Handicap, surely a run in the Northumberland Plate awaits for this one? |
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These French Listed hurdles really are very good aren't they - not. The sellers must have trouble keeping a straight face when the English buyers turn up.
There has been one subsequent winner from the race Mombasa won - the horse that finished last scored in a claiming hurdle next time and was claimed to race in Italy. |
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I suppose as a Listed winner who cost a packet it did look a bit suspicious that he was turning up at Fontwell under a double penalty rather than starting off in something better at one of the bigger tracks.
Apparently he's got a bit about him physically, so maybe there's hope for him yet as he acclimatizes. |
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George,
Yes, he might well do better in time, probably over fences. Still a bit dispiriting to pay 250,000 euros and get beaten by a horse that was bought out of a claiming hurdle in the provinces for 10,800 euros. |
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Indeed, Anorak
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Action Motion, 1pt EW @ 100-1, 12.15 Cork
A maximum 20-runner field for this 3YO hurdle and I have just the one qualifier running, Action Motion, who's not obviously bred for this game, or even longer trips on the Flat, but he again left the impression last time over 10.5f at Dundalk that he'd be worth a try over once more. He had previously made the frame a couple of times on turf this season at around 10f, while showing himself versatile regarding going. He's been absent for nearly two months and has changed yards since that Dundalk run, so today could be the first step on the road to handicaps in this sphere, but in a big field where the majority were much of a muchness on the Flat, he get's a speculative vote, albeit a minor placing may be his best hope. Realism has the standout Flat rating in contest with an official mark of 103, and it would appear significant that he's been transferred from Ballydoyle to Joseph O'Brien and into the ownership of JP McManus. It is questionable whether he's worth a rating of 103 given he could finish only 4th of 9 when last seen in a 10f Leopardstown maiden when sent off at odds-on, but that was a slowly-run race where the first seven home were covered by just four lengths, so perhaps he is better judged on his previous form when finishing 3rd behind his then stablemate and high class Luxembourg in a Group 3 at the Curragh. No surprise to see the French import Blood Destinty heading the market on his debut for Willie Mullins, having finished second on his hurdles debut at Auteuil back in March, in a race that has produced subsequent winners including one at Listed level. The one who is perhaps surprisingly relatively short in the betting is Sir Allen, who is 1-12 on the Flat with an official rating of 68. He's a winner on soft ground and seems to stay 12f, so conditions should at least be fine for him. |
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* over further once more
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Interesting commentary George. Not many flat maidens "retire" with a rating of 103! Is he really that good though? Not all French 3yos have run well in Ireland or GB but Willie has some to compare it with. A big field can make it hard for a hurdling newcomer unless they can race near the front as they need a good view of the obstacles. Hard to see past those 2 but gl with Action Motion. I might back Realism in running if he jumps the first well.
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Winner untroubled but second and third ran well. Realism looked green and slow. One more run to get more experience, win a small maiden and then favourite for the Fred Winter??
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Realism wasn't wanted in the betting, and kept out wide in mid-div, he offered little, but you time may show you to be correct, sageform, given the poor vibes regarding his chance today.
They seemed to go steady early on and the first four were up there throughout with the fav eventually running away with it. The market predicted a good run from Sir Allen and he ran well to finish second, albeit no match for the winner. My pick was never put in the race but did keep on well into 7th place, again suggesting there is a race to be won with him, either back on the Flat or over hurdles at some point. Running P/L: +4.35 pts |
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I Have A Voice, 1pt EW @ 11-1, 3.20 Wetherby (5 PLACES)
I had a mark-up run for I Have A Voice on what turned out to be his final start for Jim Bolger over 11.5f at Limerick (good) in June. He seemed to need the first two runs for his new yard following a break, including when I selected him on his hurdles debut at Plumpton when he was noticeably weak in the betting. He then ran a lot better when finishing third at Chepstow, before winning unchallenged on his latest start at Southwell (good), in admittedly what appeared a weak race. He's currently weak in the betting on this switch to handicapping against his elders in receipt of the 15lb weight for age allowance, and he needs to prove his effectiveness on softer ground on this return from a 6-week break, but hopefully there is improvement to come from this half-brother to the ill-fated Repetitio, who was a fair sort over hurdles for the same yard. |
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GL George
I have backed your selections stablemate in the 3.05K, it is probably too high in the handicap and first time over fences! After seeing it in 'person' lto at Doncaster I can't not back it each way. I have also ventured to the emerald isle surprisingly, as I cannot see Nusret 1.10L being out of the 3, it is in all my each way bets. |
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They Call me Pete 12.30 Market Rasen,favourite looks pretty solid,but like this one e/w
Gl guys |
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Good luck DG and tanglefoot.
Good luck DG. My only qualifier in the Grade 2 at Leopardstown is McTigue, who would appear to face a stiff task under a 6lb penalty. In the juvenile hurdle at Fontwell (2.17), my only qualifier is Polyphonic, who I selected on his hurdles debut at Leicester, when although rated the equal of Perseus Way on the Flat, found himself totally outclassed under this code by that rival, who runs in the Grade 2 Finale Hurdle at Chepstow tomorrow, and although time may show Polyphonic faced a tough task, at odds of around 2-1 today, would rather just watch. |
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Well done on the place, tanglefoot
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Thx George had my doubts if he could beat that fav
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Well done with your banker EW selection, DG.
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Wd DG
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Lossiemouth seemed to confirm himself as head and shoulders the best 3yo around so far.
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Moorgate 2.17 Fontwell a nice any price
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